Look at the Electoral College after projected 2030 Congressional reapportionment

[LetMyPeopleVote]

We need to have flipped Texas by the 2032 election

Link to tweet

[eppur_se_muova]

1. Ugh. Not welcome news at all.

GOP gerrymandering will be so much more effective after the reapportionment.

[jimmy the one]

2. Thanks

I am 75 now, and at least I am not afeared of death anymore....

[dawg]

3. Just makes Georgia the swing state instead of Pennsylvania.

Still very winnable.

[Bettie]

4. Maybe it is time to reapportion the House

to better represent people.

Take the population of the smallest state, make that the size of congressional districts, then apportion based on that. Yes, it would increase the size of the house, but we can do that.

[Deminpenn]

7. My thought as well

nt

[Bettie]

10. Our population in 1929 was around 121 million

the same number of reps is not sufficient for our current population of about 333 million.

Reapportion and deal with the consequences. Yes, there will be a shortage of office space, the house chamber isn't big enough....all of that can be worked around or with.

[Wiz Imp]

15. I agree

[Charging Triceratops]

5. Yet another case for secession

We are two, maybe three, maybe more countries. Minority rule must END!

[Wiz Imp]

6. Take this with a huge grain of salt

This projection is based on just one year of population change estimates. The 2030 Census is likely to show some significant differences from this projection. I seriously doubt that California will lose 4 seats, for example. California was estimated to have lost population during the pandemic (note years in between the 10-year Census are just estimates and may not reflect reality), but has started gaining population again (again, estimated). The 4 seat lost assumes continued significant population loss which is unlikely to happen.

[former9thward]

9. The electoral college is based on proportional representation.

Which means even if a state gains population, it will lose seats if other states are gaining at a higher rate.

[Wiz Imp]

14. I know, but I seriously doubt California's proportion of total population would ever drop that much in just 10 years

Based on 2023 estimates, California would lose only 1 seat. I don't doubt that California may lose a seat or 2 after the next Census but I have a hard time imagining they would lose 4 seats.

[Bettie]

16. But, Idaho gaining

seat(s)? Even with growth, they have a small population.

We need actual representation of the number of people in the country. That requires an increase in the size of the HOR. It just makes sense and would help better represent the country both in congress and in the EC.

[Wiz Imp]

19. Idaho & Utah are the fastest growing states population wise

So projecting a gain of one seat for them is not crazy. But as you say, due to the small size of the HOR relative to the population of the US at this point, we've got extremely uneven representation.

For example: Montana has 1 rep for every (approx) 542,000 residents. Meanwhile, Delaware has 1 rep for every 990,000 residents. The Electoral College discrepancy is even significantly worse than that. Wyoming has 1 electoral vote for every 192,000 in population while for California it is 1 for every 732,000. That makes a vote for President in Wyoming almost 4 times as valuable as a vote in California. I don't think the "founding fathers" were envisioning such unintended consequences when the constitution was adopted.

Not only should the size of the HOR be expanded, the structure of the senate needs addressed too. The idea that each state should have equal representation in the Senate made sense when the largest state was only 3 or 4 times as big as the smallest state. But now, California's population is 69 times as large as Wyoming. Yet they both have an equal number of Senators. Certainly such inequality was never even considered possible when the Senate structure was set up.

[DavidDvorkin]

8. This shows both why we have to get rid of the Electoral College and why it's immensely difficult to do so.

[lees1975]

12. I'm 100% in favor of getting rid of the electoral college.

However, with each election cycle, Texas heads toward bluer territory as most of its new residents tend to be Democrat over Republican. I suspect that if we don't see it flip this cycle, it will by 2026. Georgia and Arizona both getting bluer with each succeeding election cycle and Florida can also be flipped.

Not always bad needs that some here want to keep posting.

[DavidDvorkin]

17. If we flip Texas, GOPers will suddenly turn against the EC.

[WarGamer]

11. tough map

[Jack Valentino]

13. That looks even worse than it is, because the 2 senators are missing in each state for electoral college

numbers..... but I think those numbers are exaggerated.

[PeaceWave]

18. Ugh.

[Oopsie Daisy]

20. I'll be surprised if I live that long. Odds are against me...

... but I hope for the sake of my grands and great-grands, that we are able to continue to be strong. With luck, Trump has destroyed the viability of any national GOP candidate for the next 100 years.