Helene is shaping up to be a huge hurricane Update - now Cat1

[malaise]

Last edited Wed Sep 25, 2024, 11:06 AM - Edit history (2)

At 5.00pm now 50mph with pressure dropping

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

[Lochloosa]

1. Headed right at my son and ex wife's house.

I'll most likely be taking a generator to them Saturday.

[malaise]

2. Worry about the storm surge

I saw a couple in their 80s who can’t take more of this.

[Attilatheblond]

3. Heard 50 foot waves? Can that be right already?

Holy cow, what is the storm surge gonna look like when that monster makes landfall?

[rubbersole]

4. 15' in the Gulf of Mexico is a huge wave.

Can imagine what kind of damage a 50' wave would do.

[malaise]

6. There won't be a 50ft wave n/t

[Attilatheblond]

12. Thank you for confirming my skepticism

Am getting pretty fed up with a lot of the 'reporting' I see on articles about weather

[malaise]

14. Thank researchers at serious universities and

experts at NOAA and NHC. Grifters are everywhere with sensational stuff😀

[Cheezoholic]

47. They may have misunderstood, there very well could be 50ft waves 100's of miles off shore if it gets up to Cat5

But you are correct, nothing like that along the coast. Probably looking at a storm surge of up to 20 ft if it's a Cat4 or higher.

[malaise]

48. Good point but I don't think this will make Cat 5

or even 4. It better not.

[Cheezoholic]

50. Models are wildly all over the place with intensity. Tonight will tell the tale n/t

Latest satellite a

[getagrip_already]

79. This is the site I use when lanning offshore fishing trips.. it is very good at wind and wave predictions

https://www.windy.com/-Waves-waves?waves,2024092621,32.148,-83.551,6,m:etsadQn

If you slide the bar at the bottom t times on thursday, you can see the current landfall predictions. Click or tap a point on the screen and it will show you the wave predictions for that location and time. Max waves are 15 feet to the east of the landfall. They fall off inshore.

You may need to click refresh and choose waves off to the right.

[malaise]

82. Thanks

[malaise]

5. Not likely

https://www.e-education.psu.edu/earth107/node/1046

Historic Storm Surge Records
As we mentioned above, coastal settings with embayments are particularly prone to high waters from storm surges, which get magnified when they enter a bay or river mouth. Rocky shorelines are less susceptible because these shorelines are often configured with relatively deep offshore bathymetric approaches that do not support the development of significantly high volumes of water in the nearshore region. In the U.S., the largest storm surge ever recorded occurred during Hurricane Katrina in the area of Pass Christian, Mississippi, where the level was increased as it entered several bays, including Bay St. Louis. Combined with wave heights, the storm surge at Biloxi, Mississippi created a high watermark in excess of 30 feet.

[lpbk2713]

62. Assuming that is so ...

Tampa Bay could catch hell.

[haele]

24. 12 ft surge expected was the last I heard.

As someone pointed out, Katrina carried a localized surge of 30 ft. A 12 ft surge will stick around for a couple hours pushing things inland for hours until the wind stops pushing it onshore.

Be safe.

Haele

[Lochloosa]

16. He's well inland. More of a wind and electric issue for.him.

I'm a native Floridian and can understand the sentiment from the older couple.

[malaise]

18. Stock up

And make they have insect repellent .

[mitch96]

42. Old adage... run from the water, hide from the wind... I'm on the west coast of Fla and about 60' above sea level.

but But BUT I don't have storm shutters. Last bit of info is even if it's miles off of Tampa as a Cat 3 we are gonna get hit...uff... pucker time.. I hate pucker time. Them swerley blowy tings make me pucker...
m

[malaise]

49. Stay safe

[spooky3]

55. You do the same, please

[malaise]

59. Just a lil more rain

and it’s back to looking for the next one
😀
How’s your dad tonight?

[spooky3]

61. He's stable, thanks.

[mitch96]

64. Yup, thanks...nt

[jimfields33]

76. I'm 45 minutes west of Orlando and even I'm nervous

This is the one thing I hate most. Hurricanes. I still have nightmares from Irma. lol.

[mitch96]

83. The only good thing about hurricanes is that if you can manage it......you can leave. Not like tornadoes or quakes..nt

[jimfields33]

88. Very good point.

I honestly feel for people who have to live through a tornado. I’ve been very lucky that I haven’t had too.

[mitch96]

93. Sometimes it backfires. I left So Florida when a big one was coming. I came over here to the west coast..

The sucker followed me. When I got home there was less damage in So Fla than in Clearwater...!!!
m

[Trueblue1968]

23. Will it hit trumps place ?????

[Lochloosa]

36. Unfortunately no. Not even close.

[jimfields33]

77. Good grief. The safest part of Florida for this hurricane is

Miami, broward and palm beach. The rest of the state is not so lucky.

[surfered]

63. They are scary things; but you have time to save yourself.

It’s not an unexpected threat like a tornado or earthquake. Evacuate if you need to. Power will likely go out and you won’t have A/C anyway. Stay with relatives or friends or a motel. But get out !

[crickets]

7. I'm not looking forward to this one.

Just over the panhandle in GA and it's headed right for us. Tonight & tomorrow are all about charging up everything in sight, gathering flashlights & radios, digging out the cooler, flipping the patio table & pinning it down, yadda yadda. I hate these.

My best to everybody in the path of this thing, and thanks as always for the heads-up, malaise.

[BoRaGard]

9. .

[malaise]

38. Take care

This too will pass

[mitch96]

43. Don't forget water. No electricity, no pumps...Drinking and flushing..nt

[Cheezoholic]

60. Tub and Jug! Fill that tub and every jug you can find with water! n/t

[applegrove]

8. Vibes that all those in the path find safer ground.

[notemason]

10. Upstate SC prediction is for around 10 inches of rain.

these mountain creeks will flood everywhere.

[DoBW]

13. more info...

https://spaghettimodels.com/default.htm

[malaise]

21. Thanks

Rec

[rockbluff botanist]

15. Hurricane Michael hit my farm as a Cat 4 after taking out Mexico Beach as a Cat 5

I am having PTSD.

Helene had us in its direct sight and fortunately has shifted East. I'm 50 miles northwest of Tallahassee and it looks like it will now direct hit Tallahassee. It's difficult when you have horses and big greenhouses.

Michael took the 10mil plastic off my greenhouses. We never found it.

[malaise]

17. Stay safe

[Evolve Dammit]

37. Damn. Hope you'll be ok. Keep in touch

[LetMyPeopleVote]

19. Evacuate if you need to and stay safe

[orthoclad]

20. Rapid intensification seems to be a trend

Storms moving over very warm shallow water near coastlines.
Scary.

[malaise]

71. But. But but

Remember now - no climate change Hmmmmm!

[jimfields33]

78. California sure should know about climate change with

their endless fires.

[orthoclad]

94. Yep, all a commie hoax.

I see now that Cat 4 is a possibility. Grievous.

This rapid blowup of storms is getting common enough to have names: bombogenesis for extratropical storms, rapid intensification for troppies.

wiki:
"Explosive cyclogenesis (also referred to as a weather bomb,[1][2][3] meteorological bomb,[4] explosive development,[1] bomb cyclone,[5][6] or bombogenesis[7][8][9]) is the rapid deepening of an extratropical cyclonic low-pressure area. "

"Rapid intensification (RI) is any process wherein a tropical cyclone strengthens dramatically in a short period of time. Tropical cyclone forecasting agencies utilize differing thresholds for designating rapid intensification events, though the most widely used definition stipulates an increase in the maximum sustained winds of a tropical cyclone of at least 30 knots (55 km/h; 35 mph) in a 24-hour period. However, periods of rapid intensification often last longer than a day. About 20–30% of all tropical cyclones undergo rapid intensification, including a majority of tropical cyclones with peak wind speeds exceeding 51 m/s (180 km/h; 110 mph). "

[malaise]

95. We're still having rain from outerbands.

This system is huge.

[orthoclad]

96. Bigger than Katrina?

Windspeed is what determines Cat x classes.
We need more description: size, threats other than wind, etc.

We also need to identify trends: how storms are changing over time.

Be safe.

[malaise]

97. This one is 400+ miles wide

Katrina was stronger but was less than 300 miles wide.
The ready wide ones are the cyclones in Asia

[CaptainTruth]

22. Looks like large in size but predicted Cat 3 at 115 mph

If that prediction holds it won't be anywhere near Michael (Cat 5) but the outer bands will cover a large area.

We all know these things can change but I'm hoping it doesn't get worse than the current prediction.

Fingers crossed & stay safe, folks.

[ananda]

25. That's what Zoom Earth shows.

I like that picture map the best.

[malaise]

27. That's the good news

Although this will affect a larger area

[malaise]

75. Now Cat1

[birdographer]

26. My friend works for power company in Madison county east of Tallahassee

Says they have evacuated the town of Perry, FL.

[malaise]

28. Wow

Rec

[mitch96]

44. I've passed thru Perry a few times when on SR 19. Does not seem to have a lot of people but I don't know.nt

[wordstroken]

29. Thanks, malaise. You're always on top of things.

I’m in SW Florida and watching Helene closely.

[malaise]

30. Stay safe

Watch the rain and wind😀

[wordstroken]

31. You, too!

[malaise]

33. I've never seen such a wide system

Give thanks it’s taking a while to organize itself and it is still 50mph
It is covering the entire northern Caribbean Sea

[James48]

32. Bad track

Not good.




https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/



https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092024_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/213745_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png

[oldmanlynn]

34. Yep unfortunately we are in Tulum scheduled to leave at 12:56 pm tomorrow from Cancun

Flight has not been canceled yet.

[malaise]

35. Oops

Not good

[Warpy]

39. Odd path for that one

NOAA has it clipping the tip of Yucatan, crossing Cuba, and making a beeline for America's taint as a major storm.

No, kiddies, don't look it up.

[ramapo]

40. I wonder if Florida state officials will want federal aid

It'll be interesting to see if they accept help or if the other red states protest the waste of taxpayer funds

[malaise]

52. Of course

Last edited Wed Sep 25, 2024, 07:30 AM - Edit history (1)

Death Sentence declared a state of emergency since yesterday.
The Eff the deep State posse always want Federal money and resources.

[jimfields33]

89. My state deserves every penny. Sorry hurricanes are not political.

In fact, the hit both democratic areas like New Orleans and republican areas like the bend area. But you do know a huge target of this storm is Tallahassee which is a blue area.

[Kid Berwyn]

41. Pressure Drop

[malaise]

53. Nicely played

😀

[DownriverDem]

45. If at all possible

I would consider moving either more inland or out of state.

[Pacifist Patriot]

46. My eldest son and nephew are in Tallahassee.

We are observing from Brevard County. My sister is freaking out. It's not productive.

This is one of the most unusual named storms in my 30 years in Florida. Never seen one develop and hit land here this fast.

[malaise]

58. Leave or batten down

Latest. 60mph

[Blue_Roses]

66. We have a "cold" front

moving through here in Texas right now. The cold front is pushing this storm east in the track you're showing. Otherwise, it might have been a different track, since we've had a "heat dome" over us forever. Texas can have four seasons in one day. I need to move...

[malaise]

67. So many variables

We really have to respect the experts.
If it had moved West, it may well have strengthened to Cat 5 given time and distance. Be glad for that front.

[Blue_Roses]

69. Exactly!

Weather is so fascinating to me. Always has been with living in the south. Like you said, so many variables and it could change on a dime

[malaise]

72. Sure looks like Tallahassee

Tell them to take care

[GumboYaYa]

80. My sister is in Tallahassee also. She is a school teacher. They had a half day today.

I was surprised they had school today.

She is packed up and headed to my Mom's outside of Orlando as soon as she gets off work.

[Pacifist Patriot]

91. I heard Jim Cantore has showed up in Tally. That's never a good sign.

[bucolic_frolic]

51. The Mar-A-Lago Express

[Freethinker65]

54. DeSantis is spit shining his rubber boots and getting ready to blame any damage on Kamala Harris and the Democrats.

[SheltieLover]

56. Stay safe, all!

[getagrip_already]

57. meh, it's nothing a sharpie can't fix....

just push it back out to sea.

[malaise]

65. LOL

The sharpie will have no impact. This system is 400 miles across.
Loads of water

[getagrip_already]

73. You are clearly confusing reality with messaging...

If we eliminate noaa, and tell people the storm is no threat and will miraculously disappear, it cant hurt anyone.

And if it does, who could have predicted it? We just wont count the dead or destroyed property. Then we will bulldoze whats left and put up luxury resorts. We will tax the poor and call it an infrastructure policy.

All hail the sharpie!

[malaise]

74. Well that is the CONvicted felon's modus operandi

[Takket]

68. I wonder will rethugs...

Ensure that the people get their help they need?

Or will they blame the hurricane on Dems, Harris, gays, trans, and/or blacks making God angry?

Which is more likely?

[malaise]

70. They will blame everyone but themselves

[Kid Berwyn]

81. Eye seems to have squeezed north between Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula.

Poor Cayman Islands...and sympathy for all in Helene's path.

As you all know, the water temps these days don't help anyone.

[malaise]

84. That's the truth

Rec

[tavernier]

85. Our schools are closed tomorrow.

40 -60 wind gusts expected, busses can’t cross bridges.
I love it when Wednesday turns into Friday and I can skip work and sleep in.

We are on the side edge; hoping all in the direct path find a safe harbor for the next few days. ❤️

[malaise]

86. Was wondering how you were doing

Stay safe my friend

[tavernier]

87. Thanks, Sweetie!

We will be fine; probably a bit of clean up and the back yard will flood. But we live on coral rock so it doesn’t take long to soak through. A bit more concerned about family in Fort Meyers and St. Pete and Clearwater. But they have all done it before and know to have a plan.

[malaise]

92. 5.00pm update

Not good pressure dropping, likely Cat 4 - poor Cedar Keys

[haele]

90. Florida DU'ers stay safe. Isn't Koz in the panhandle area?

Just thinking about those in the community who might need a bit of extra consideration or looking after.

Haele