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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe New York Times Poll Was An Outlier
Am I to believe that since the debate that TSF gained 10 points in Arizona? Don't insult my intelligence, what little I have.
Don't keep telling me that aggregate polls like 538 are accurate, aggregate polls are only accurate when there is an equal number of outlier polls. There has to be an equal number of polls that overpredict for Kamala and an equal number that overpredict for TSF.
If the vast majority of outlier polls are exaggerating TSF's numbers then those outlier polls will also drag down the aggregate polls.
Don't tell me that I can't believe that Kamala is going to win comfortably because believing that will suppress the vote. People want to vote for winners, it's why sports fans switch teams when their favorite team loses.
I like Kamala's chances in N. Carolina, Georgia, and even Florida. There I said it.
I will do my part to GOTV and donate to Democrats because I want Kamala to win in a landslide, just squeaking by isn't enough for me.
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Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)"The New York Times Poll Was An Outlier A Liar."
samsingh
(18,443 posts)i believe NYT is deliberately changing methodology to put out polls bad for Kamala.
GB_RN
(3,570 posts)The New York Times should just be a sponsor of (read: paid for) the poll. The polling houses all have their own, secret formulae of what they think the electorate looks like. Now, thats not to say that the polling house didn’t tweak things, making it look like a horse race. Partisan pollsters do that in favor of whomever hired them, so they get lots of (repeat) business from candidates of specific parties.
usaf-vet
(7,826 posts)..... tale that they want to report?
GreenWave
(12,693 posts)Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)
LuvLoogie
(8,852 posts)
Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)
Johnny2X2X
(24,306 posts)So it's a close race and trump has made up some ground in the last week or so.
The bad news? Trump now leads in AZ and GA. NC and Nevada are really close.
The good news? Harris is opening up sizeable leads in MI, WI, and PA. She wins those 3 and she's the next President.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)The Quinnipiac poll is an Outler.
Do you believe that TSF gained 10 points in Arizona since the debate? Then there is the moron running for governor in North Carolina who TSF endorsed and that endorsement of the black Nazi caused TSF to gain points in North Carolina?
Johnny2X2X
(24,306 posts)But the data says it's a very close race. I think North Carolina goes blue too.
SheltieLover
(81,201 posts)I detest these liars!
Wiz Imp
(10,163 posts)First of all, Quinnipiac released state polls for PA, MI & WI just a few days ago which showed a 6 point lead for Harris in PA, 5 points in MI and 1 point in WI. There is no way Harris has leads like that in PA and MI while trailing nationwide.
In addition, it definitely seems to have a right wing slant. It shows Trumps favorability at 47% to 50% unfavorable. There's no way Trump has that good of favorability ratings overall. Almost all polls show him at -10% or more. Does anyone really think 47% of the country have a positive opinion of Trump? Insane. Also, it shows the youngest age demographic at just +3% for Harris when most polls show significantly larger leads.
VMA131Marine
(5,291 posts)or at the national level, it makes zero sense to talk about changes in the race based on a single poll.
If you look at AZ specifically you find that all the polls are with the margin of error and 3 out of the 5 most recent polls show Harris picking up support from the previous poll.
https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/arizona
I’ve come to the conclusion that polls are mostly useless when they show that the race is this close or tied because they are such an imprecise measurement. When the MOE is +/-4 then what does a 1% change in a candidates numbers mean. To me that’s a statistically insignificant change but the organisations that commission and perform these polls can’t say that because there’s no story in that.
Nobody really knows if Harris or Trump is ahead in AZ.
Polybius
(21,969 posts)Assuming the map stays the same as 2020, except that Trump wins AZ, GA, NC, and Nevada. Talk about hyper-close. Harris 270, Trump 268. One Faithless Elector sends it to the House.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTcyNzI4MDk5OTI1ODQwbUuSbFm2bUGSbVGSbFuSbVuSZcm2LA
DeepWinter
(931 posts)Democrat/Harris voters are quite loud and proud.
Republican/Trump voters... there's a lot staying in the shadows because they don't want to be known as a Trump voter. Expect a surprising bump up at the actual voting booth.
Would love to hear Broklynites thoughts on this, he always had great insider into from the DNC and Harris campaign itself. Sadly, I think he was banned for uncomfortable truths.
TBF
(36,859 posts)Kamala & Tim are doing a great job on the swing states. But it is very quiet here in TX. I don't know if that's because suburban moms are going to cross over or because they just don't want to admit they are voting party line, despite Trump. It's a little early here in terms of signs and that sort of thing, at least for the Pres/VP slots. We have a lot of local candidates for the down ticket races holding town halls and putting up their signs though.
I worry a lot about Project 2025. I think they are serious about making those kinds of changes, and it will be too late if they get elected because they've already got the Supreme Court. We will be in for a lot of hurt in this country if Trump actually wins.
Bev54
(13,462 posts)who do not answer the phone for pollsters so he thinks Harris's numbers could be overstated. WTF. Why in hell would they ever bring that idiot back on tv is beyond me. I hadn't seen or heard from him for a couple of years and now he is back still spewing absolute garbage. JFC they have a lot of bad reporters there and only a couple of good ones.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)New York Times pushing the narrative that Kamala isn't specific enough about her policies, but it says nothing when TSF says he will be a protector of his women.
Keepthesoulalive
(2,325 posts)They have an agenda and they don’t give a crap about journalism.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)the closer it gets to the election.
maxsolomon
(38,912 posts)Just now, their "live" headline is "Hezbollah Fires on Tel Aviv; Israeli General Hints at Use of Ground Troops". Should I believe that? Is that a lie?
They took a poll. They reported on the results. That's not evidence of an "agenda" just because it's an outlier.
Keepthesoulalive
(2,325 posts)Maggie Haberman, Judith Miller , nothing about Trumps serious mental decline,
FBI reopens investigation into Hillary’s emails and endless articles about Joe Biden’s age. What happened to investigative journalism.I am not a statistician but why should I trust a newspaper that didn’t care to check the lies about Iraq.
Occasionally there is a kernel of truth but I will not check a harmful of shit to find it.
maxsolomon
(38,912 posts)If you did, you'd know they just ran a(nother) damning, multi-page investigative article on MFer.
Did you ever subscribe?
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)When it came out, multiple polls had Harris behind in Arizona with only one other poll around that time, FOX News, having Harris up (+1).
I suspect she's not down five but that FOX poll was the last poll, now nearly a month ago, that had Harris leading. So, I suspect she's either tied or down in Arizona.
lees1975
(7,089 posts)Which ones are you looking at?
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Sorry. There was a Morning Consult that had Harris +1 but it's clear a vast majority of polls show Harris either down or tied.
But since that NYT poll last month that put Harris up five, nearly every other poll has her either down or tied.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)I literally told you I thought it was an outlier - as was their poll that had Harris up five. How is this difficult to understand?
I never believed Harris was up five in a state Biden only won by .31% in 2020, so how could I think Trump gained 10 points in a month?
If you actually read my original post, you'd see I also said I don't think Trump is up five.
Therefore, it shouldn't be difficult to infer from this post that I don't think Trump gained ten points in a month.
But the polling suggests Harris is narrowly trailing Trump in Arizona. That I can believe - and you should too.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)I believe that Kamala is ahead in Arizona and it may be by 5.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Too many polls are consistent in showing her down. In 2020, a good chunk , if not a majority of polls, had Biden up.
Including the NYT, which had him +6 in their final poll.
Regardless, I think Arizona will be close no matter what. I don't see either side winning it by five.
lees1975
(7,089 posts)Especially not in a state where Democrats have steadily gained registration since 2016, and won the last two statewide cycles by increasing vote totals.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)The Harris campaign considers Arizona a toss-up. They are not confident she actually leads and believes the race will mirror the gubernatorial race there from 2022 more than the 2022 senate race.
Conversely, Biden's campaign in 2020 had Arizona as a lean-Biden state.
But you're free to believe what you want. I hope you're right.
lees1975
(7,089 posts)and you look at and average the other polls, by size of sample and weight, she's up by 1 in Arizona.
But, 538 doesn't run some of the local news polls. And there've been 5 Morning Consult polls in AZ between Sept 11 and 24, and only two show up here. YouGov/USA Today Sept 11-18 is missing, she's up by 5 in Ariz. in that poll, which is a combo of two.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)I can't find a YouGov/USA Today poll for Arizona.
And all these other polls (you said there's like 60 polls out there?) that aren't added.
Beyond Morning Consult, the only poll I have been able to find that shows Harris leading this month is Focaldata, who polled from September 3 through the 16th. And even they continue to say there is a real risk Harris' lead is overestimated.
Regardless, Arizona is, as I said, at best a tie right now. That's how the Harris campaign views it and that's how I view it.
lees1975
(7,089 posts)The other evidence, from number of donors to voter registration information, shows Kamala heading toward winning a landslide. Every poll exists because it gets money from media outlets that contract with them to gather the data, and the media wants a horserace to keep their ratings up. If you want an accurate, honest picture of where the election is headed, take a look at any of a dozen independent media sources. These are people who don't overstate anything, who want Democrats to know exactly where things stand and to avoid deception. Their analysists and supporters are not anywhere near the corporate owned media is landing.
Knowing that she is ahead doesn't stop me from working to make sure voters get out and elect her.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)And the campaign does not expect anything close to a landslide. They expect a very close race. In fact, one that could be closer than 2016.
Their best hope is to essentially hold every state Biden won in 2020 and flip North Carolina. But the campaign is bracing for at least one state Biden won in 2020, whether it's Arizona or Nevada or Georgia (or maybe even Pennsylvania) to flip, which is why they're laser focused on North Carolina.
They do feel better about Nevada but Pennsylvania is really going to be a close state and one they absolutely believe they could lose as the campaign has said it's literally a 50/50 state at this point.
The chance for a landslide went out the window after the convention. The fact national polls haven't moved much (beyond a couple points here and there) supports this - and no, it's not a conspiracy to get money from the media. There are plenty of private pollsters who do not align with the media, like Quinnipiac and Pew that are entirely self-funded and have no reason to cook their numbers to show a horse race since much of their funding is tied directly to their accuracy.
But in the end, the Harris campaign knows it has an expansive map that's also potentially very narrow. They have way more must-win states to defend than Trump.
People who assume this is going to turn into a 2008-style landslide are really setting themselves up for disappointment on election night.
Cosmocat
(15,441 posts)Trump is like an 80s horror figure, freddie kruger, jason voorhees ...
You think he's dead and he comes back to life.
Been this way for a decade now.
I want to see her get some good space between and her and him as much as anyone else, but I sadly share your general thoughts.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Trump was going to lose in a landslide.
The system is not set up for that. Trump has an advantage called the Electoral College. That alone makes any landslide unlikely.
We saw this in 2016, where many on here were predicting huge wins - and maybe even more evident, we saw it in 2020. Biden won the popular vote comfortably, by nearly five points, and yet his win came down to 46,000 votes combined in Arizona, Wisconsin and Georgia.
This is likely to be a very close election. Maybe even closer than 2020.
It would not surprise me if Harris wins similarly to what a Hillary win would have looked like if she got just enough votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
ProfessorGAC
(76,960 posts)In '20, Biden won by > 7 million votes, and 70 electoral votes. 56.5% to 43.5% in the EC is quite a margin of victory.
"LANDSLIDE" is a relative term. I would say a 13% marking of victory is a landslide, though not a wipe-out.
Also, I think comparing '16 to this year is specious.
From folks of your opinion, what has TFG done to pick up ground?
Why would we expect races to tighten with no action influencing them?
Which of course, is my objection to chasing poll numbers. Values that move without an assignable cause, or even an attempt to find one, indicates gross data noise, making the data more & more suspect.
Your prediction is based on instinct, not data. That's perfectly fine. Everybody is entitled to an opinion, but it shouldn't be presented as supported by data when there is evidence the data is questionable.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)That was his TOTAL (as in combined margin) in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin.
He loses those three states and his popular vote total is irrelevant because Trump wins reelection.
Try again.
Think. Again.
(22,456 posts)...suggests Harris /Walz will do well in November.
It's the Senate and House races we need to strengthen.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)And it'll likely be decided in turnout. I promise you, Harris' team does not expect a comfortable win.
She's not just saying she's the underdog to keep people from getting complacent. They say it because they mean it. Harris is at an electoral disadvantage. It doesn't matter if she's competitive in Texas and say, only loses it by four points. Or Florida for that matter.
In the end, they have way more must-win states to defend than Trump.
stopdiggin
(15,540 posts)And all the wailing and gnashing of teeth here on DU changes that stark reality not a whit.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)people no longer answer calls from numbers they do not recognize because of all the spam and solicitations.
I have seen some analysis saying that support for trump is "underestimated" because his supporters are less likely answer pollsters, verses younger people, and I say nonsense. You look at some of the cross tabs and questions in these polls, and they are quite involved. It would take at least 30 minutes or longer per person to get through the questions. Who has time for that? I would speculate an older demographic would be more likely do that than a younger one.
They love to cite 2016 as their justification for this, conveniently ignoring what Comey did 11 days before the general election.
I think the polls have problems not accounting for those who not only don't want to answer calls from numbers they don't recognize, but also do not want to spend the time going through a pollsters many questions which will be irrelevant in a week when new polling is initiated.
Maybe I am an outlier. I do not answer calls from numbers I do not recognize, and I sure as heck don't want to spend a lot of time answering a bunch of questions, some which I view as personal and no one else's damn business.
CTyankee
(68,291 posts)I thought if we just didn't answer eventually they would just go away. But they don't and I don't understand it....
Doodley
(11,979 posts)Because TSF got thrashed in the debate and because TSF endorsed a man who wants to go back to slavery?
Doodley
(11,979 posts)They hear "Make America Great Again," and they think, "What's wrong with that? Sounds good."
They hear, "I'll make the economy great. It's terrible now," and they think, "What's wrong with that? Sounds good."
They hear, "Crime is the worst it's ever been. I'll fix it." and they think, "What's wrong with that? Sounds good."
They hear. "illegal immigrants are causing crime, eating cats and dogs. I'll fix it," and think, "What's wrong with that? Sounds good."
Basically, he's getting his messages across in a simple way that morons and the uninformed think are good.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)Who did TSG pick up and why? How many Republicans have come out in favor of Kamala? For every Republican who switches to Kamala that is a gain of +2.
How many Democrats are switching to Magat?
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Which frequently are only temporary boosts in the ratings, especially one as early as that debate (this was the earliest, not counting the Biden-Trump debate in election history as the first presidential debate is typically held at the end of September or early October).
The race is just once again resetting back to where it was post-DNC.
People need to start preparing themselves for a very close election. Those who feel Harris has this in the bag are going to be blindsided by just how close things are in November.
It doesn't make sense but it doesn't have to. Just as it didn't make sense that Trump came within 46,000 votes of winning four years ago.
But the EC is likely to make this race closer than any of us would like.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)He has his core base that is baked in.
I see where TSF is losing big time with women and he cannot win with the numbers that I see.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Trump exceeded his 2016 numbers in pretty much every swing state. Even in Arizona, a state he won in 2016 with 48.08% of the vote and lost in 2020 with 48.91%. I think Georgia was the only swing/flip state that Trump actually saw a smaller overall percentage than he received in 2016.
Biden won by picking up a lot of voters who went third party in 2016.
Trump can absolutely win without expanding his support. He just needs Harris to lose support to third party candidates or to stay home.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)or will people stay home.
The only way that TSF can win is by cheating, by throwing people off the voter rolls, by cutting back on voting in Democratic precincts.
Thank goodness that Kamala's campaign hired Marc Elias' law firm.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)The states most at risk for Harris that Biden won four years ago are states largely run by Democrats: Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Unless you think their governors are going to have a hand in cheating.
You seem to be of the assumption that Harris will walk to victory in those states. I'm not there. I think she can win all four but they are going to be close.
And yes, Harris is at risk of third party candidates peeling off voters, especially as it relates to the Gaza conflict. Whether it'll be enough to hand Trump the presidency? I'm doubtful but I'm not going to pretend she's walking to victory in November either.
RobinA
(10,478 posts)Independents and Dems who won't vote for a female. Hilary was a better candidate (NOT campaigner) than Harris. She lost where it counted, as Harris may do. It's only about which side turns out.
Cosmocat
(15,441 posts)because this country is that stupid.
it all comes back to that.
obamanut2012
(29,415 posts)Doodley
(11,979 posts)
karynnj
(61,022 posts)Robust estimators give less weight or no weight to outliers. It is true that they are more often used with a far greater number of data points. Here, with a relatively small number of data points, the danger of an outlier is greater. Removing or downweighting a high leverage point would make sense.
Fiendish Thingy
(23,448 posts)We must distinguish between true “outlier” polls (polls by well known pollsters with some semblance of identifiable methodology, albeit flawed, that produces results out of step with other reputable polls from the same time frame - NYT is a good example) from plain old “liar” polls, polls by unknown, shady pollsters with minimal track records whose polls are designed to deliberately manipulate polling averages and forecast models - Atlas Intel is a good example.
By definition, there can’t be a “vast majority” of outlier polls from a given time frame- typically there are just a few, 1-3 at most that stray from the clustering of results from other reputable polls (this goes for polls giving Harris an extraordinarily large lead as well as those giving Trump a lead when all other give Harris a narrow lead).
The big standout this cycle has been the NYT polls, which have been consistent outliers.
Of as much, if not more concern, are the “liar” polls. Liar polls were included in the Nate Silver-led 538 averages for the 2022 midterms and drove the “Red Wave” narrative and cost Silver his job. Liar polls, if taken at face value without questioning, can create the illusion that outliers aren’t really outliers, but part of an “alternative cluster” of valid results. In worst case scenarios, like the 2022 midterms, where dozens of liar polls were released in late October, they can create the illusion that the clustered results of reputable polls are actually outliers.
We don’t yet know if the Silver-less 538 will exclude obvious liar polls from this year’s averages and forecast model.
republianmushroom
(22,425 posts)gab13by13
(32,483 posts)stopdiggin
(15,540 posts)The difference between what we think should happen - and then what people actually end up doing ...
et tu
(2,387 posts)to get to 'boardwalk' and cf45 to land on the corner-[go to jail]
i've got lots of monopoly money- tee hee
Sympthsical
(11,019 posts)Vibes ain't data.
The two are increasingly confused.
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)Democrats are kicking ass on the ground game and TSF is doing campaign ads and social media.
5 months ago I said that Democrats need to spend money for Colin Allred and I was laughed at. Texas has been purging people like mad from the voter rolls which is a tell that they are worried.
Democrats aren't running a senate candidate in Nebraska and I see today that the Magat incumbent is losing to the Independent.
RJ_MacReady
(448 posts)Are no longer credible nor even close to being the "gold standard".
Moostache
(11,225 posts)The 2016 treason and plot...
I know of no reason that day
Should EVER be forgot.
(A hackneyed riff on 'V for Vendetta'... but we actually find ourselves living in a shadowy reflection of that very dystopia today!)
I put NO FAITH in any polls and am going to be an absolute trainwreck on this coming November 5th. No one should feel comfortable until the results are in, Kamala is POTUS-elect and we can begin the work of expelling Trump and MAGA to the ashcan of history once and for all!
ananda
(35,283 posts)Nuff said.
Justice matters.
(9,888 posts)Ignore the polls and keep working on the ground I say.
It's a good thing the polls are not showing the big lead (in reality).
It means Dems have to GOTV (like in 2022) and not get complacent.
ananda
(35,283 posts)GOTV and we got this!
gab13by13
(32,483 posts)It was a Quinnipiac poll from "Newsweek," so there is that. It said TSF gaining with women, and I fucking laughed out loud. What the hell did TSF do to gain the support of women?
This is why I hate polls, it's just a bunch of numbers on a page, no way to prove or disprove it.
I didn't click on it so I don't know the numbers.
I expect there will be a poll coming out of Florida where TSF is gaining support from Haitians?
Justice matters.
(9,888 posts)The pukes were supposed to landslide both chambers like never before.
pooffff. 
Keep your head up and be confident they're all doing it again.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Most polls did not show a 'red rave'. That was a narrative kicked up by the media in outright opposition to the polls. Every idea that Republicans would win in a massive landslide was an act of poll denialism because the polls indicated the exact opposite.
Polls had Democrats winning Arizona, Georgia and essentially tied in Pennsylvania.
The national 'generic ballot' poll had Republicans +2.5 on average - they won by +2.8. To put that into perspective, Democrats won the national popular vote in the 2018 congressional midterm elections by eight points (when they took back the House). In 2010, when Republicans actually did see a red wave and took back the House, they won the popular vote by nearly seven points.
In fact, much of what we're seeing here is exactly what Republicans did in 2022. They ignored the polls. They couldn't fathom that Pennsylvania was tight or that Republicans weren't going to wipe out Democrats in the House races.
Despite polls indicating that Democrats were favored, or tied, including the pesky NYT/Siena who everyone thinks is in the bag for Trump.
But the right-wing media didn't want to believe it.
The vibes they were seeing didn't match the polls.
So, they ignored the polls and spoke of winning in Washington and New Hampshire.
Despite no polls having the Republican up.
It was a red wave narrative because they denied the polls.
Just like many here saying it'll be a blue wave despite polls indicating that isn't going to be the case.
Justice matters.
(9,888 posts)starting tomorrow... the 26...
Hope I'm right.
Response to gab13by13 (Original post)
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GP6971
(38,204 posts)
Ocelot II
(130,814 posts)
Joinfortmill
(21,338 posts)Ocelot II
(130,814 posts)
Aepps22
(391 posts)This election will be close but it will be won or lost by the GOTV efforts and how much we individually are doing to donate, volunteer and phone bank. Polls whether good or bad mean nothing if we don’t do the work. Fear or hype over random polls is really a distraction. One thing I give the bad guys credit for is no matter what the polls say, they keep doing the work. We have to do the same
WSHazel
(784 posts)both between the polls, and it appears, within the same polling family on the national and state level. I have a hard time believing Harris is +5 in PA while down 0.5% nationally, but that is what Quinnipiac is telling us.
Another good rule of thumb is that the Red Wave polls like RMG, Trafalgar, Fabrizio, etc. are shading their own data 2-3 points to red.