A slow panic is gripping the Republicans in Washington...

[kentuck]

They may have gotten on the Trump roller coaster one time too often?

Of course, a lot can happen in the 40 days until election. But the direction that Trump is headed is not encouraging to a lot of Republicans. Suddenly, they do not feel as loyal as they once were.

Because if Trump continues his slide downward, there is a good chance he may drag a few of them down with him. How long until their whispers in the corner become public criticisms?

Many of them could receive their just desserts. Four months from now, many may no longer be in the House or Senate.

It could become a full-scale panic.

[Whyisthisstillclose]

1. It may turn out that Trump is the best

thing that happened to the Democratic Party in the races of 2024. He may help us all over the country in down ballot contests.

[Gaytano70]

23. Kamala Harris and Tim Walz are the best things 💙

[Whyisthisstillclose]

26. Very true! Trump-Vance fall to second best! LOL

[lastlib]

29. Losers! n/t

[Self Esteem]

2. I don't sense there's panic at all.

Trump has once again made this a 50/50 race. He's like a horror movie villain in that just keeps coming back, worse than before.

Republicans are also poised to win the senate, while they still have a decent chance of keeping the house.

Trump's slide has clearly stopped for now. Whether that upends the race? Hard to say, but this post feels a week too late tbh

Neither party is in a position of total strength at this point. Republicans might be a tad worse off because the presidency is more at risk of being lost - but that risk certainly isn't large enough at this point to start causing panic. Not when a lot of polls essentially show a tied race in all the key swing states.

[kentuck]

3. We'll see where they are at in a couple of weeks.

I think Harris may be ready to make a surge that will frighten them.

[Self Esteem]

12. We've been talking a surge for a month now.

She got an initial surge after Biden dropped out but that's about it. We were told one would come after the DNC. It really didn't. Then after the debate, which she did get a bump but it looks pretty temporary.

The reality is that I think there's unlikely to be much movement going forward.

Regards, I don't feel confident enough to believe that something is going to shake this race to the point Harris becomes the clear favorite and Trump is the overwhelming underdog.

[Dan]

25. In my humble opinion, you're out to lunch (not meant negatively tho').

First , I don’t think that a of Polls are reflecting the Will of young voters.

Second, I don’t think that the Polls are reflecting how people that only have cell phones are trending.

Third, I don’t think that the Polls are accurately reflecting how women in GOP households are thinking when outside the view of their partners. Yes, some will fly the stupid flag but I think some will vote in their own interest.

Fourth, I don’t think that the Polls are getting a good read on the POC and how they will vote.

Fifth, I think that the “Christians” are getting tired of their savior.

Sixth - We still have to fight like we’re down 5 points, because we know that the racist, misogyny crowd will lie about who they will support because at some point their is recognition that their’s view is sick.

So have faith ….. in my humble opinion. Hell, I suspect that even Melania will vote against Donald. Plus, there is my personal feeling that even Trump doesn’t want to win the Election. He’s just trying to get a Get-Out-Of-Jail card, cause J.D. has been appointed by the powers that be to be his VP so that they can dump Trump.

[Self Esteem]

30. My opinion has been shaped by the Harris campaign.

Their expectations is that this election is going to be closer than it was in 2020. If I'm out to lunch, so are they.

[JT45242]

35. Who answers random phone numbers...old people

There is no way either of my son's 18&23 would answer some rando call on their cell phones. Never. They don't have friends who would.

That group (other than white supremacists) is not going backwards. They think, rightly, that being LGBTQ+ is normal and the government should stay the hell out of it. They want birth control, IVF, and abortion health care. They are not voting for TFG (or asshats like Cruz, Hawley, and penis head Scott in Florida). If they show up, which I think they will because they are energized by Harris -walz, this will be a curb stomp election.

[Self Esteem]

36. Plenty of surveys nowadays do not rely just on calling people.

But that's irrelevant: Harris' campaign sees this election as a dog fight. Anyone who thinks she's going to win this by a lot needs to recalibrate.

I think she's going to win but it's going to be very close. Too close.

[getagrip_already]

53. This is called non-response bias.... and all polls suffer from it

Nonresponse bias happens when those unwilling or unable to take part in a research study are different from those who do.

In other words, this bias occurs when respondents and nonrespondents categorically differ in ways that impact the research. As a result, the sample is no longer representative of the population as a whole.

In this case, people who have busy lives, and have been hassled by spam alert calls, simply don't answer their phone if they don't know the number. If the call was important, someone would leave a message or text.

For web and text based polls, you run into the same issues except for opt-in polls. But opt-in polls are self basing because people have to agree ahead of time to be polled. Many play the system and create fake profiles. Sure, I'm a 20 year old african american women. Aha.

The result in 2016 was that the polls undercounted tsf voters. They were suspicious of pollsters and wouldn't respond. Add to that that many non-traditional voters rushed to the polls because of the racists/mysoginist messaging, and a lot of tsf support wan't picked up.

In 2024, it is hurting numbers for harris. Add to the above issues that pollsters are using questionable turnout mdels, and they are really undercounting harris voters.

It is in everyone's interest however to call the election close. We still need every vote and then some because of election interreference and voter suppression, as well as outright theft at the certification level.

[sheshe2]

32. President Biden stepped down on July 21st.

Harris won the nomination on August 5th. She has only been running for 53 days while TSF has been running for the past 4 years! She has done an amazing job, building a stellar team and galvanizing our base in such a short time. What more do you want from her?

Frankly, it is up to US to take her across the finish line and defeatist attitudes won’t get us there. We need to VOTE 🗳️ like our lives and future depends on it, because they do.

[ProfessorGAC]

60. Minor Correction

TFG has been campaigning nonstop since 2015! His entire term in office was nothing more than a continuous 4 year campaign event
Now, compare that to Ms. Harris' 53 days, and we have an even greater contrast.

[lees1975]

40. Put it all together, there's been quite a surge, and it keeps growing.

Harris' favorability, reported out only this week, has taken a jump in the last month and a half unseen in any recent polling data. And there are a lot of other things that show she's surging, other than just the standard "so who you gonna vote for?" poll. In terms of comparing to previous elections, her favorability vs negativity is comparable only to the surge Dubya got after the 9-11 attack.

I know there are a lot of poll data apologists here, but there's so much out there now showing just what a shoddy job the polls have done since 2016, racing during the days and hours before an election to change their numbers and avoid credibility beatings.

[PatrickforB]

15. The interview she did with Ruhle was very good. It may well move the needle. Same with

The Walz/Vance debate. Because I'm thinking Walz will be pretty good.

Plus, it sounds like Harris has won over much of the biz community.

[Self Esteem]

38. I doubt an interview on MSNBC will move the needle much.

It's not likely to hit nearly as wide of an audience as a debate would.

I could see the VP debate having an impact but their impact is typically less than the presidential debate impact and I'm not sure that one debate changed much in terms of this race.

[lees1975]

8. I suspect that's an image created by the media.

Trump's slide is visible every day, he doesn't even give his rally attendees, the smaller and smaller groups who actually do show up, anything they can even cheer about, he just drones on, leaving them to figure out what he actually said.

The media wants you to think this is tight, 50-50, coming down to the wire. That's worth tens of millions of dollars to them. What the Republicans are banking on is some kind of ability to suppress turnout or disqualify democratic party voters. And if that fails, some way to avoid certification of vote totals that don't work for them. The effort is already on, by the way, to get court rulings to neutralize that effort. But the fact that they are obviously depending on it tells me they know they are about to get pounded into the ground.

[birdographer]

16. Exactly

Don't believe everything you read in the paper....

[Self Esteem]

18. I believe what I hear directly from the Harris campaign.

We're briefed every week about their position and they see this as a toss-up election.

[Self Esteem]

17. Harris' team expects a 50-50 election.

They don't focus on the media narrative. Their narrative is that this is a 50-50 election where Harris has more must-win states than Trump that she's defending (at least states that are really up for grabs and not states both sides think they can possibly win like Texas or Virginia).

If it was just about the popular vote, they'd be in really good position but the electoral college puts them at a disadvantage and they know this.

Their internals essentially have all the states Biden flipped in 2020 as toss-ups except Michigan, where they have a slight but consistent lead.

[GreenWave]

44. Same expectations the Crimson Tide has when they face a lesser opponent.

50-50: and subsequently

[Self Esteem]

47. Yeah except they actually believe it.

It's not just talk. Their internal polling basically has every state Biden flipped in 2020 a toss-up except for Michigan, where they have a slight lead.

There's a reason Walz has been basically living in Wisconsin the last few weeks and Harris has held multiple events in Pennsylvania in the last week.

If Harris felt she was up by a decent margin, she'd have Florida or Texas visits planned - on top of those other states.

She doesn't and likely won't make a push in either state.

This if a margin of error race and it will come down to turnout. The Harris team, based on their data, is predicting a closer race than 2020. At this point, they are trying to shore up as many of those 2020 flip states as possible, and they hope they can run the table on them, but it's not a lock.

I think some of you guys are going to be surprised at just how close this election is turning out to be. It can change but we're coming up on a month before election day so I'm not sure it will change.


Now your comparison might actually be correct for this weekend as they play Georgia as the underdog, a game they absolutely could lose.

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

56. Are you working on the Harris Campaign?

[Self Esteem]

58. I work with my state party and frequently join field calls.

[Wounded Bear]

10. Polls are a snapshot in time. You're looking at a single point on a moving tapestry...

Last edited Thu Sep 26, 2024, 02:02 PM - Edit history (1)

Trends are in Harris's favor, they have been moving that direction for weeks.

The more people see of her, the more they like her.

The more people see of trump, the less they like him.

[Self Esteem]

28. I think trends are flat.

Harris currently leads on average, according to 538, with 48.4% of the vote (to Trump's 45.5).

10 days ago, she led 48.1 to 45.3.

20 days ago, she led 48.2 to 45.2.

A month ago, she led 47.2 to 43.8.

So, in a month's span, her average percentage has gone from 47.2 to 48.4. That's an increase of 1.2 However, Trump has gone from 43.8 to 45.5, which is an increase of 1.7.

That means Harris' margin has shrunk from 3.4 a month ago to 2.7 today.

Not a significant decrease but a decrease.

But really, the race has remained relatively flat, especially the last few weeks. I don't think that's likely to change. It just feels everything is baked into the numbers at this point and it will come down to turnout.

Elections where there has been a surge in one direction or the other were rocked by specific moments: the financial crisis in 2008, the Comey letter in 2016 but I suspect we're not going to see something that significant this go around. Even the potential evidence Jack Smith puts out isn't likely to alter this race much as it really hasn't already.

Only way I could see this race shifting significantly away from Trump is if someone had video of him with an underage girl.

I just don't have faith the dynamics will change much. This election is going to be a squeaker.

[Layzeebeaver]

37. Him, not her.

The more people see of trump, the less they like him.

I think that’s what you meant to type.

[Wounded Bear]

48. D'oh! You're right. I edited...nt

[Cheezoholic]

14. The Senate and House races are trending our way, you're writing them off too easily. We still have a good chance

to sweep. Repukes have the uphill battle at the moment, not us.

[Self Esteem]

21. Ohio and Montana are not trending our way.

I think Brown wins in Ohio but it's going to be close. Tester is likely done in Montana.

As for Texas and Florida, I'm not willing to say they're trending our way until multiple polls show Allred or Mucarsel-Powell up.

They're competitive states but certainly not states where the Democrats are favored to win at this point.

[lees1975]

62. How can you tell? There's only outdated polling data.

And not any real quality polls in either place.

[Self Esteem]

63. The party.

Montana is almost to the point of unwinnable right now according to the DNC. They're not ready just yet to abandon Tester but it's getting close. The only thing saving Tester is that the party still sees him as the best option between his seat, Florida and Texas. But if Allred has a couple more solid polling weeks, they may pull the plug on Montana and shift resources to Texas in a last ditched effort to keep the senate.

Ohio is also problematic since Brown has refused outside help. Republicans have swamped the airwaves this month and into October, outspending Brown significantly and the party fears it will have a significant impact on the race there.

Ironically, back when Biden was in the race, and guys like Tester and Brown were becoming more and more vocal about Biden dropping out, the DSCC had both races as lean-Democratic (Montana more toss-up, tho). Now? Ohio is a toss-up and Montana is lean-Republican.

Like I said, I think Brown wins in Ohio (less so than I did a few weeks ago tho). But it'll be close - and my view is based on the assumption the latest comments about abortion will blunt Moreno's surge.

Montana? I think it'll take a prayer to win there.

[jaxexpat]

31. "Trump's slide has clearly stopped for now." you say, and you may be correct. But there's an aspect which is important.

The down-ballot results, this time, depends on how many heretofore unmotivated voters realize solidly get, the only reason Trump's slide has stopped is because he just can't go any lower. His supporters are not people with whom most would want to exchange places. They're not shining examples to model a life's aspiration upon and where they are going is no place to be.

They're not intellectual giants or heroes of commerce or warriors steeped in honor nor are they traditional citizens, faithful to the nation's principles. They are not the silent majority. In fact, they are the loud and ungrateful children of excessive indulgence whose life aspirations begin and end with their latest lottery ticket. This long-term meaning of this race will be determined by how many citizen soldiers of Trumps "army" stop for a moment to look around them and realize their fellows, their "brothers in arms" are nothing but dead weight.

Down ballot gains may well spring from those who migrate from MAGA into the ranks of the undecided over the next 5 weeks.

[Aepps22]

50. This is why GOTV Efforts and Ground Game are Important

This will be a close race where turnout will determine everything. We have to help by donating, sending post cards and getting our family and friends to the booth. We can't leave any gas in the tank on this one. We all have a role to play

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

52. Yes he is

[beaglelover]

55. Spot on. The R's have a very good chance of winning the POTUS, Senate AND keeping the House.

[musclecar6]

4. Well

There's nothing I would enjoy more than to see these weak spineless congress people who have been kissing the ass of this deplorable person on every level for years now, start to sweat.

What should have happened, when that evil incompetent sociopath waltzed into the White House fully intent to out do Adolph Hitler, was one thing.

Congress should have stood up to the bully and said if you don't behave and act properly the way a President should, we the unified Congress ( Republicans AND. Democrats) will impeach you AND convict you ( and mean't it) and you will be gone so fast you won't believe it.

If they had, that spineless bully would have shriveled up before their eyes. They also should have said this is your get out of jail free card. Don't even think about trying to divide and conquer us, cause we'll know it as we're real good at that shit too.

If they had done all the above, they probably would have had to get rid of him, as nobody is gonna tell him whst to do.

The good news is, Pence would take over and being the wimp he is, he would be scared shitless to step out of line. Most important though, when some no good SOB comes along in the future, and they will,
they'll think 10 times before they pull all the stunts that bully has and got away with it.

[BoRaGard]

5. "Not our fault. We got SUCKERED." - G.O.P.

"How could we have possibly known that we were worshiping and meekly obeying a casino-hustling, draft-dodging, bankrupting scofflaw, liar, felon, rapist, and traitor? We are Holy Innocents who, um, got dimwittedly SUCKERED. Noway we could have had a clue till now. Believe us. Trust us. Smirk." - G.O.P.

[GopherGal]

7. Fool Me Once, Shame on You; Fool Me Twice, Shame on Me

Let's see, there's 2016, 2018, 2020, 2022...
You're way past claiming victimhood when you're coming up on five times. And that's not even counting the impeachment votes.

But the modern GOP is the definition of shameless.

Oh, and it was pretty clear what a low-life he was since at least this Nov 25, 2015 news
[link:

?si=KQ-IfCpwDlr4DxzR&t=19]

[617Blue]

6. I see no evidence of this panic.

[lees1975]

11. Look at all of the effort they're making to suppress the vote and try to avoid certifying the election results.

That's panic, bud.

Good grief, you've got Lindsay Graham putting pressure on state legislators in Nebraska over a single electoral vote, and when they lost that attempt, he went bonkers. There are Republican house and senate members running for re-election who are on social media yelling at the RNC for support they're not getting.

Look at the tone and extremist content of the ads they're dropping, when you can find them.

And if you can stand it long enough to get what you're looking for, spend some time on Fox News or Newsmax these days. Panic isn't the word to describe what they're conveying. Catastrophe is more like it. They know, they see the same signs everyone else does. And the same real numbers.

And if you haven't done it yet, start counting the public defections of former members of congress and former cabinet officials from GOP administrations, including Trump's. It's over 400, and that's just at the federal level. That's not just lip service, there are groups of Republicans actually raising money for Harris.

[617Blue]

54. They do that anyway. It's all they got.

When GOP loses elections they don't look in the mirror, they just explore new ways to prevent voting.

[padfun]

20. That's because you aren't looking

It shows in both Fed and State elections. And my MAGA brother is in panic mode. He's questioning me about Kamala and how she is going to let millions of immigrants in.

[Kid Berwyn]

9. Cowardice IS GOP DNA.

"A conservative is a man who is too cowardly to fight and too fat to run." -- Elbert Hubbard

What makes MAGA different is their total stupidity and complete devotion to evil.

Now that their leader is exposed for the traitor and unstable moron he is, they should be panicking.

[Hope22]

13. Two scoops cowardice....

Two scoops liar…..

[yellowcanine]

19. Will we get to see Josh Hawley running from danger like a scared rabbit again? Run away! Run away!

Too much to hope for, I guess.

[bdamomma]

33. I want to

see Colin beat Ted to the point that I'm giving small donations to Colin. Ted is a danger and needs to go!!!!!!!

[jimfields33]

46. Are you sure?

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219505070


This was just posted on DU.

[TBF]

57. Ugh - I misread

thank you for the correction!

[Martin68]

24. We're hoping that full-scale panic sets in and they drop Trump to save themselves. But I'm not counting on it.

[Initech]

27. Gee, you think maybe flirting with totalitarian fascism is a terrible idea?

[orwell]

34. Well since they despise "Gubmint"...

...and the "Deep State", they should be thrilled to enter the private sector.

Problem solved!

[TheFarseer]

39. Now's no time to panic

A majority of the election models still have Trump winning - which is stunning to me.

[Mysterian]

41. If they get the Senate it's going to be the same ol same ol

Tester is running a terrible campaign and has refused to endorse Harris. I think he's toast.

[kentuck]

43. Sometimes we are just in the wrong place at the wrong time.

Montana is a cult. The entire state. Just like Wyoming.

[Mysterian]

45. I'm not in the cult

Explain that.

[kentuck]

49. Wyoming voted out Liz Cheney, a loyal conservative...

Of course, it wasn't unanimous but I would say most of the state is in the cult. I hope Montana is not in the same boat, but I'm thinking they may be? Again, I hope not. Tester is one of my favorite Senators. If he is not acceptable to the voters of that state, what are they looking for?

[anamnua]

42. We don't want a panic.

We want a false sense of security.

[Mike Nelson]

51. What a drag it is going down...

... goodbye, GOP!

[Skittles]

59. .....

[Dem4life1234]

61. The party needs to be made a foot note in history