Dan Froomkin: What if the media has the election all wrong?

[Nevilledog]

https://presswatchers.org/2024/09/what-if-the-media-has-the-election-all-wrong/

Here’s a question for you: What if the dynamics of the 2024 presidential election have dramatically shifted — and the national media has been too busy doing stenography to notice?

What if Kamala Harris — after a spectacular entry into the race, a stunningly unified convention, and a devastating debate — is basically running away with it, leaving Trump in the dust, while the national media — still mortified by its failure in 2016 to see the extent of Trump’s support — stubbornly sticks to the safer narrative that it’s a horserace going down to the wire?

But wait, the polls aren’t showing Harris way ahead, you say. At most, they’re showing her with a narrow lead.

Well, polls are garbage these days. And the pollsters, whose arbitrary weightings make a mockery of science, travel in packs. They, more than anyone, are terrified of underestimating Trump support again. So maybe this time they’re overestimating it? (Which they sure did in 2022.)

You could, by contrast, make a solid vibes-and-momentum argument that Harris is winning handily. In an extraordinary turnaround, Democrats now appear even more enthusiastic than Republicans. Harris, unlike Trump, is wooing undecideds and independents. Marquee Republicans like Dick Cheney – Dick Cheney! — are getting on the Harris train. So are former Trump allies.

*snip*

[hlthe2b]

1. "And the pollsters, whose arbitrary weightings make a mockery of science, travel in packs."

Arbitrary weightings, indeed. There is no consistency as to how to consistently define "likely voters" (and that is if you choose to ignore all the factors that make polls so non-representative to begin with today).

Anyone who has trained in statistics and scientific study design is appalled at how the MSM uses and abuses these "findings" and pollsters (even the "better" ones) are so reluctant to call out the riff raff.

[Tribetime]

2. I would like to think that the recent Iowa poll is correct

And there's a four percent shift from President Biden to VP Harris which would mean about an eight percent lead overall

[gab13by13]

3. If Kamala is really ahead by 10 or more

it will never be reported.

[Flatrat]

10. In a way, thats good

We need people to turn out and vote to counter the suppression factor the republicans are employing.

Against fascism no margin of victory is too great.

[JanMichael]

4. While I am not a fan of gambling the money is on Harris

People never bet on anything that they think will lose them money.

At least that's what that guy that predicts elections fairly well says.

So yes a Harris landslide is approaching.

[DavidDvorkin]

5. That would be wonderful

But I'm afraid to hope.

[Joinfortmill]

14. 'Hope is a good thing,' wrote Andy. 'Maybe the best of things.'

[bucolic_frolic]

6. The more we worry, the more we turnout.

Media has a patriotic duty to not report lopsided elections based on polls. Voter participation is higher if the public believes it's a close race.

[sarisataka]

7. Harris is really about +30

the election is in the bag, we are looking at a blue wave, probably getting close to 500 Electoral votes... Hell why are we sweating this? Half of us could take the day off and she would still win.

But if you all don't mind, I'm going to pretend it is a close election. We are slightly ahead but that is a fragile lead with everything on the line. I will vote and encourage every person I know to get out and vote Dem like our futures depend on it.

Just in case the media has the election all correct...

[republianmushroom]

8. For the media, water off the ducks back.

[maxsolomon]

9. What if they do?

What if they don't?

It changes nothing.

[Skittles]

11. the media is NOT "too busy to notice"

THEY ARE COMPLICIT

[JustAnotherGen]

16. This

[angrychair]

12. Polls are broken

Reading tea leaves would be more accurate.
For me that has to be the answer. The alternative is just to horrible to consider.

Did you know recent polling showed the majority of the United States support concentration camps and mass deportations of Black and Hispanic people? Yes, I left out the distinguisher of "undocumented immigrants" because if you are paying attention so did Republicans. I don't believe this poll is in any way accurate. If it's not accurate, how accurate could other polling be?

[Joinfortmill]

13. Yup, most amazing thing I've since JFK ran.

[JustAnotherGen]

15. This is where I've been since 2016

Well, polls are garbage these days. And the pollsters, whose arbitrary weightings make a mockery of science, travel in packs. They, more than anyone, are terrified of underestimating Trump support again. So maybe this time they’re overestimating it? (Which they sure did in 2022.)

Then 2022 happened.

Then out of cycle races, special.elections, etc etc showed Democratic Candidates dominating.

Polls are becoming meaningless unless they are hyper focused on specific districts/counties. I'm only interested in granular polls from purple counties and districts.

I also really enjoy how Harris isn't courting the press. There's almost a disdain for the media from her campaign. She hasn't forgotten how they treated her mentor. And I'd bet her campaign is scratching their heads and wondering why DonOld's age and coherence aren't being questioned.

[calimary]

17. The media just LOVES LOVES LOVES a horse race.

Last edited Fri Sep 27, 2024, 05:17 PM - Edit history (1)

And absolutely has to have one. Cuz it brings the eyeballs. And the eyeballs might just lure the brain into it, and then get the mouth working to spread the word.

GOTTA have the damn horse race all the time. And if there really isn’t much of one, then BUILD one, dammit! It’s good for RATINGS, dammit!!!

Sigh…

Fuckin’ TIRESOME. No wonder it starts arguments (which make for great television)!

[OMGWTF]

18. I just completed my 50-state tour which took me on a 1,278-mile drive through the red states

of Oklahoma, Missouri, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, and North Dakota. During this trip I saw more "Wall Drug" signs than Trump signs and even saw several Harris/Walz signs in unexpected places. I started this trip with trepidation so close to the election but ended it with a very positive feeling. VOTE! VOTE! VOTE!