We're getting overconfident and that's dangerous

[Cyrano]

Many of my friends and acquaintances are becoming more and more confident that Kamala is going to win. Even in casual conversations with Democrats, I find that their spirits are soaring.

But everyone must keep this in mind: In 2016, almost no one doubted that Hillary was on the verge of becoming our next president.

The circumstances are different today and there's no way Trump can truly "win." But virtually the entire Republican Party, nationwide, is working hard at doing everything they possibly can to steal it for him.

Let's not let victory slip through our fingers. Trump/Vance are a deadly threat to America. And they could very quickly become a threat to the entire world. And you can bet the entire world is watching us to see what happens. They "get it."

If you're knocking on doors, making phone calls, handwriting postcards, or volunteering to do anything and everything to ensure that Kamala wins, try to do even more. As Tim Walz said, "I can sleep when I'm dead."

We can't blow this election to overconfidence. We need the biggest turnout in history of Democrats at the polls. Work like we're 20 points down everywhere. After all, there's nothing at stake but our Constitution, our freedoms and our entire way of life.

[DeepWinter]

1. Completely agree

There's a lot of "Undecideds" and Independents who just don't want people finger pointing and chastising them for voting Trump. So they says nothing or say Harris when they will be voting Trump.

And they don't want to be lectured to telling them they're stupid if they don't think and vote like you think and vote.

Work like we're behind, because the silent hidden Trump voters in the shadows are counting on premature celebrating.

[50 Shades Of Blue]

2. I can't think of anyone I know who is complacent about Kamala winning.

[Prairie Gates]

12. Me either...most people consider it a coin toss and are preparing for what to do should Trump win

I don't know a single person who thinks it's in the bag. Honestly, zero people.

[Demobrat]

27. Me neither.

Everyone I talk to about politics is scared to death TSF will manage to steal it.

[Aepps22]

3. Completely Agree on Need to Do More

We have to do our part to get this win. We have momentum and energy but so do the bad guys. We have to GOTV. I’m writing postcards to swing states and I encourage others to do the same. As the late Joe Madison would say “What are you going to do”. Too many on our side would rather focus on polls and other nonsense rather than lifting a finger to help.

[DemonGoddess]

4. Not overconfident

not at all. having renewed ulcer issues from this election. It's a safe bet all our stress levels are high

[Fiendish Thingy]

5. I'm not seeing any overconfidence

On the contrary, I’ve seen much more doomerism and defeatism.

But most folks seem to have a solid resolve to win this thing.

[Tribetime]

6. We need a House and Senate...Please give what you can

To the close Senate and House races also.

[Cyrano]

9. Absolutely. We will need a totally Dem congress

to start to repair the damage and destruction done by the barbarians in nine short years.

[jimfields33]

32. What do you mean? We led during 5 of those 9 years.

[Cyrano]

39. Trump didn't need to be in power to

spread his hatred and divisiveness.

He's not in power today, yet look what he's done to Springfield, Ohio.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

7. The polls (if they're anywhere being correct) are showing a tight race.

Harris only being 1-2 points ahead in a lot of swing states. The Pennsylvania polls are scary. I just wish the polls were more accurate. Who knows if they are way off or not.

[Cyrano]

11. I mostly pay attention to the Quinnipiac poll

Somehow, this small University in Connecticut seems to constantly prove to be on target more often than all other polls.

[RidinWithHarris]

8. And if we were worried, that would be dangerous too

Is there ever a mood or a situation that isn't dangerous?

[TwilightZone]

10. "there's no way Trump can truly "win." "

This isn't true, and, frankly, it's the kind of statement that you're generally railing against. "Trump can't win" is no more valid an assertion than "Harris can't lose".

With the EC being the determining factor, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Trump could stitch together enough EVs to get to 270. I personally don't think he will, but absolute statements simply aren't valid in this context.

I agree on everything re: overconfidence. I see it more here than out in the real world, however, and I don't see any indication that the powers that be in the Democratic Party are doing anything other than taking this 100% seriously.

[PufPuf23]

13. The elephant in the room is Israel.

The leadership of Israel and conservative supporters, Christian and Jew, support Trump.

Read the comment sections of publications like The Times of Israel and similar; Biden and Harris are maligned not Trump.

The Democratic Party has probably already lost many non-Jews of Middle Eastern descent.

Young liberal college students are drifting away from the vote while the young conservative Christian voters are organized and pro-Trump.

All over the World from a variety of reasons, there is instability coupled with climate change. Bad actors take advantage of the situation and are re-arranging deck chairs for trouble to come.

Trump will allow the Israeli right wing and religious zealots to pursue Greater Israel and create a disaster capitalism mecca for greed heads. Christian, Islamic and Jewish religious zealots want the violence to continue.

I don't like the trajectory and do not have an answer. Do not support cutting off aid nor dropping Israel as others suggest. No good could come from a corned and isolated Israel.

Stop the war. Create a viable and fair two-state solution or the future is a spiraling of despair and violence.

[Cyrano]

14. You really need to start your own thread on this issue

[PufPuf23]

20. Apologized if deflected from your OP.

I am a defeated, ill and dying old man and lack energy or any answers aside from lifelong aversion to war, mistreatment of the weak and greed heads. Have voted exclusively Democratic for over 50 years, since McGovern. Watching for the mail-in ballot in my PO Box.

[Skittles]

29. there is a whole forum just for them

yup

[JI7]

58. Most Jews support Israel and most are supporting Harris

[PufPuf23]

64. Realize that most Jews support Israel and Harris as do I.

That is why I am so heartsick.

[republianmushroom]

15. Yup, shades of 2016. IMO

[doc03]

22. National polls are totally meaningless. Swing

states are in the MOE and Trump always outpreforms the polls. It is in no way in the bag.

[H2O Man]

16. Absolutely!

Recommended.

[J_William_Ryan]

17. 'The circumstances are different today and there's no way Trump can truly "win."'

Disagree.

Trump could very well win without cheating or stealing the election; presidents are installed via a process both undemocratic and antimajoritarian, at times contrary to the will of the voters, as in 2000 and 2016.

Indeed, Trump is counting on another popular vote loss with a win in the EC, you can tell by the way he’s campaigning – win enough razor thin majorities in enough swing states to be elected.

There is a great deal of fear, ignorance, stupidity, racism, bigotry, misogyny, and hate in support of Trump.

[SomedayKindaLove]

63. Which is what Trump is trying to rally

80 million people didn’t vote in 2020. I’m sure Trump is hoping that many of them are racists and that they will come out to vote this time. See his ‘Get off the couch, Harry’ shtick from last week.

[CrispyQ]

18. There's a diff between being overconfident & enjoying the vibe.

I'm still doing GOTV, but this feels much more like 2008 than 2016.

[gohuskies]

19. Not complacent here

Just remember the hideous result of 2016 and further back to Bush v. Gore. The right wing zealots will stop at nothing to win. They are ruthless and spread lies and conspiracy theories 24/7. Taking nothing for granted here and joining the cause to get the vote out to end this charade.

[BigDemVoter]

21. Not over confident here. . . .

I won't relax until **$$Y-Grabber is soundly defeated. I've seen too much bullshit from the repigs over the years, and now they have the corrupt SCOTUS in their pocket, so the risk of shenanigans is very real.

[angrychair]

23. I'm far from confident

And I have no doubt there is a single person on this website that would ever assign the trait of "optimist" to my persona on this website.
That said I think things are moving in the right direction. I think there is still significant vulnerability in certain key states. One significant misstep could cost us that victory. I think that is more about the sad state of affairs in our country than it says anything about Vice President Kamala Harris.

As the saying goes "All gas. No brakes. Until the very last second."

[Demovictory9]

24. Im donating, writing postcards

[AllaN01Bear]

25. been wanting to say something like this but thank you.

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

26. I see zero evidence of overconfidence.

[Sibelius Fan]

28. Couldn't disagree more.

Tons of D enthusiasm, and not an atom of it enthusiastic about staying home.

We need to run like we’re winning right now, but we haven’t won yet.

Better to run like we are leading and pummeling tRump than to empower him by pretending the race is close and could go either way, that the trends aren’t clear. The trends are all in our direction, and trending more in our direction every day. Let’s act like it. Let’s beat into the dirt this myth that tRump has some secret power that keeps him within a point of his opponents. He doesn’t. He’s never won the popular vote. Not even close.

[Climate Crusader]

30. The key is to strike a healthy balance.

Optimism breeds enthusiasm and that is a good thing as long as we keep working, contributing, volunteering, talking up RECEPTIVE acquaintances and "doing the work". If over confidence means laying down and thinking it's done, you're right, we don't want that.

[SWBTATTReg]

31. IMHO, BS. We deserve the joy. And we don't need to be told this, the vast majority will get out and vote, stump, etc.

And we deserve the JOY. Isn't it time?

[sarisataka]

35. No , it is not time

November 6 it when it's time to celebrate with JOY.

[SWBTATTReg]

37. BS. I'm going to celebrate w/ Kamala in the picture, w/ the full backing of Pres. Biden. NO ONE is going to spoil

my enjoyment and job for such a wonderful set of candidates. No one.

[sarisataka]

38. To each their own

People celebrated early in 2016. I prefer to wait for victory before celebrating. It means I don't have to thumb the "Crow" tab in my cookbook very often.

[littlemissmartypants]

41. I personally have grown weary of the pedantic paternalistic warnings.

I'm also not too fond of the finger wagging grandmotherly etiquette experts who appear occasionally to remind us how they think we should behave here.

But I do enjoy learning about the various personalities here and frequently find opportunities to build on my Full Ignore list.

And that my dear friend SWBTATTReg, makes it all worthwhile. So, I get you. ❤️

[SWBTATTReg]

42. Thank you for your nice, supportive comments. It truly is a joy to have Kamala and Tim running, and, even as

a bonus, listening to the two of them, in their speeches, has been a joy. I want someone to perk me up, I want someone on my side, I want a, to use a football metaphor, a cheerleader, or an outstanding quarterback, or someone like this to cheer us on, to tell us that the Sun is shining brightly in the sky, and that all will be good and true. I want this. And you better believe that I'll tear the doors down to the polling booth when that time comes. Ha ha heh. The joy is so tangible, so thick you can cut it w/ a knife. We deserve it.

I get you too. Thanks for sharing my joy too.

[littlemissmartypants]

43. Hear! Hear!

Make way for the joyful warriors!

Hat Tip to rogerballard.



https://www.democraticunderground.com/1034128127

Re-Flex - The Politics Of Dancing

Lyrics

[Verse 1]
We got the message
I heard it on the airwaves
The politicians are now DJs
The broadcast was spreading
Station to station
Like an infection across the nation

[Pre-Chorus]
Though you know you can't stop it
When they start to play, you gotta get out the way
[Chorus]
The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood?

The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood?

[Verse 2]
We're under pressure
Yes, we're counting on you
Like what you say is what you do
It's in the papers, ooh, it's on your TV news
Ooh, the application is just a point of view

[Pre-Chorus]
Well, you know you can't stop it
When they start to play, you gotta get out the way

[Chorus]
The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood? Yeah
[Instrumental]

[Chorus]
The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood?

The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood?

The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood?

The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good
The politics of moving, aha
Is this message understood?

The politics of dancing
The politics of, ooh, feeling good

https://genius.com/Re-flex-the-politics-of-dancing-lyrics

❤️

[edisdead]

48. Maybe you haven't been payong attention to the message Because you are not on message

[sarisataka]

57. What is the message

Since I haven't been payong attention you can clue me in.

[Joinfortmill]

33. Hillary should have won. She got some goddamn bad

advice on how to run a campaign. That said, she has one hell of a legacy and enormous respect around the world.

[edisdead]

47. Yeah and she also

she also had foreign i terests working against her in ways that we hadn’t seen before, she also had Comey ratfuck her, she also had an entire media campaign against her for 30 years. She was also outside of Ferraro the first woman to actually be on a ticket of actual potential. She also didn’t have the anger of the country over Roe and she didn’t have the track record of Trump’s past to rin against.

Hillary and Kamala are not congruent in terms of where we are in an election.

[Elessar Zappa]

34. Disagree.

There’s nothing wrong with optimism and I think it helps us, people are excited to get Harris into office.

[Cirsium]

36. The bandwagon effect

People want to identify with what they perceive to be the "winning team."

I don't think people are getting complacent and I don't think that confidence and enthusiasm lead to complacency.

Confidence and enthusiasm lead to more confidence and enthusiasm.

[Dem2theMax]

40. I'm not.

I will never forget the day before the 2016 election. 538 said Trump only had an 11% chance of winning over Hillary. This was the day before!

I'm not looking at polls, I'm not paying attention to anything that says Kamala is ahead in any way.

It's GOTV 100%. Every minute of every day, through election day, and then I'm sure there will be continued fighting if she wins.

If she wins, I won't settle down and believe it until she's sworn in. That's how much I don't trust him.
I hate that we have to live like this. All because of him. And all of the horrible people who are trying everything they can to take away our votes.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

60. I stopped trusting 538 and all polls after 2016

[Hekate]

44. I tune in to DU & about all is see is doom & gloom. Give me some of that "overconfidence" please

[edisdead]

45. Then go do something.

Honestly I am tired of being mind fucked six different ways to Sunday on this. Especially coming here. You can’t read one bit of good news without someone chiming in reminding people that it we could be living in a hellscape if we aren’t thinking about the possibility nonstop.

Enough!

If your friends aren’t taking it seriously then do something. If you have enough time energy and resources then do something. But here’s the thing about movements. They grow be ause THEY FEEL GOOD! If they don’t feel good people lose enthusiasm, so getting nagged all the damned time that we are too complacent and that if we are feeling good we will lose gets to be so damned irritating that it makes me just want to tune it out.

I get the idea but honestly how many times do we need to hear it here? It is beyond obnoxious.

[betsuni]

46. What's the concern? I still don't get it. What does "overconfident" mean, exactly? Not voting? Are they saying that?

[PCIntern]

49. Jesus H. Kerist....

So I’m not allowed to feel good about my candidate and speak of her odds of winning? Are you aware that there is a percentage of individuals who need validation that they are on the winning train and that they are more likely to vote for the perceived winner?

Quite honestly, I’m getting tired of continuing doomsaying and fully believe that a percentage of those who espouse this are hoping for a victory by the other side. I didn’t say EVERYONE, so don’t get all excited that I’m denigrating DUers and calling them trolls or worse.

Everyone here is doing the best they can and is going to vote.

[Sugarcoated]

50. If the Harris campaign was overconfident

she wouldn't be giving a speech at the border in Arizona. She wouldn't be speaking in purple areas of PA and other swing states.

[TheKentuckian]

51. Sackcloth and ashes isn't a great sales method and may depress more than it inspires.

Straddle the line.

[FullySupportDems]

52. I want to be confident in a way that ostracizes them

I want them to feel embarrassed to be part of the tfg cult. Like how the country turned against Nixon. Make the cowards scared they're not on the winning side. They don't want to be laughed at like that old clown.

[senseandsensibility]

53. Who's we?

I disagree with the premise.

[awesomerwb1]

54. Not me. I'm shitting my pants over this election

My stress levels are through the roof.

[Dem2theMax]

65. You have company.

Me.

[Self Esteem]

55. I can tell you the Harris campaign is not overconfident.

I work for my state party and every week we're plugged into a conference call with the Harris campaign, as well as those working for congressional Democrats. Each week, we're briefed on the state of the race. This is not secret stuff - if you look, it's out there. But it's also not overly cautious in the hopes that they keep people from getting complacent. This is how they see the race. They're not sugarcoating it - they're not dooming. They are being one-hundred percent truthful on these calls. Too much money and strategy is involved to not be serious.

This is what I've heard:

Back when Biden was in, the map was titling away from him. He was hemorrhaging support in key swing states. Their internals had him tied in places like Virginia and Minnesota. I always felt they'd come back around and he'd be fine - if the attacks on him from his own party stopped. But it was clear they were not going to stop.

When he dropped out, there was an instant surge of support, but the internals still showed Harris behind in most the 2020 states Biden flipped (and the one state she was not behind, Michigan, was seen as a tie).

Over time, she's made progress.

But as of this week, those swing states Biden flipped in 2020 (Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin) are al toss-ups, except Michigan, which they believe they have a slight lead.

They see this is a 50/50 race. I think they're gonna win it because there is more energy now and energy fuels turnout. But it's going to be close.

There is a reason Harris is not campaigning in Florida or Texas. There is a reason they've stashed Walz in Wisconsin and Harris has made multiple stops in Pennsylvania this week.

The campaign feels, at this point, that the election is going to be more narrow than it was in 2020.

That's why they're so focused on North Carlina because if they can flip North Carolina, it gives 'em a cushion if they lose Arizona and Georgia.

Now my own perspective, this is my guess as of RIGHT NOW how the swing states break down based on what I've seen and heard:

Arizona: Lean Trump
North Carolina: Very Slight Lean Trump
Georgia: Toss-up
Pennsylvania: Very Slight Lean Harris
Nevada: Very Slight Lean Harris
Wisconsin: Lean Harris
Michigan: Decent Lean Harris

The problem and what the campaign stresses multiple times, is that the way the electoral college is set up, she has more must-win states to defend than Trump does. Unless Texas and Florida shift sizably to the left, which there is no indication that it is (in Texas, she's polling about the margins Biden lost the state in 2020 - 5ish points - and in Florida worse than Biden's final margin), that's the reality.

If Harris wins every Lean Harris state, she wins 276 to 262. That means, of all those 'Lean Harris' states, she can only afford to lose Nevada and that's if she carries the NE2 congressional district (which I think she will). Any other of those states, whether it's one of the blue wall states she loses, and Trump wins.

Now, if she flips North Carolina, that means she can lose Nevada + Wisconsin or Michigan (not both) and win the presidency.

So, they're focused on flipping North Carolina just in case a Nevada or Wisconsin shifts to the right.

If she wins North Carolina AND Nevada, she can afford to lose Pennsylvania (as long as she wins Michigan and Wisconsin).

But that's my take on the info I've been provided from Harris staff on the state of the presidential race.

She has multiple pathways...it's just those pathways are extremely narrow and even a slight shift to Trump could close those pathways pretty quickly.

It's why they want another debate. They know it helps. He knows it hurts. He's not gonna do a debate unless he gets desperate and he's not desperate at this point because the race is so close. He can't afford to get knocked out again.

In the end, people need to brace for a close election. Things can change but at this point, I'm thinking Harris is looking at a very narrow victory.

[Basso8vb]

56. Speak for yourself.

[Oopsie Daisy]

59. I think it's a mistake to confuse "enthusiastic" with being "over-confident".

Have you genuinely observed people being overconfident and nonchalant about the whole thing? Or is this just a cautionary-tale and a warning to AVOID overconfidence even though you haven't personally observed it?

I feel like it's the enthusiasm that motivates people, not dire warnings.

[Initech]

61. I'm not! I am scared AF that it's going to be really close.

And that Trump and his goons already have safeguards in place to make sure it tilts their way. If it’s close at all, you know those idiots are going to try something. We’ve seen this happen time and time again. There’s too much at stake in this election and we cannot let the United States succumb to totalitarian fascism.

[Aristus]

62. I'm not sure the concern that any supporter of Kamala Harris is so confident of her victory that they will say

"She's got this; I'm just going to start home on Election Day" entirely squares with reality.

2016 isn't that far in the past; I know we Americans are often accused of having short political memories. But one does not forget the horror of 2016 easily or quickly.

[vercetti2021]

66. Uh no we aren't

I swear to God excitement is not allowed here it's just fucking amazing.

[lees1975]

67. A good portion of the Republican party has defected from him and has openly announced it is not supporting him.

And in this Republican Party, that's saying something because being loyal to Trump has become more important than being politically conservative.

[JI7]

68. There was a lot of negativity about Hillary which isn't there with Kamala Harris

At least not the same amount.

Many of the anti Hillary and pro Trump trash in the media were exposed with their own issues and are no longer around like Matt Lauer.

There is a difference between the excitement about Kamala Harris and the idiots in 2016 always needing to get in something negative about Hillary.

and Kamala has learned from a lot of that shit also . Like not attending that Catholic Dinner.