Jon Tester, Dem senator for Montana

[cilla4progress]

Enraging that he is currently almost too far behind to pull ahead in his re-election campaign.

He is a great Senator and man. His GOP opponent is a carpetbagging fake.

Montana - what the hell has happened to you?!

[onecaliberal]

1. They love the child rapist I guess.

[Polybius]

2. Yeah, I stopped sending money

I don't think he can win, so I'm sending to OH, FL, and TX instead.

[nbsmom]

3. How do you know that he is currently almost too far behind?

Are there any trustworthy polls being done for MT or OH? I genuinely doubt it.

Polls are being conducted in the swing states, but there is a spectacular lack of trustworthy polling in the deep red or deep blue states. (For example, did you know that TWO Senate seats are being contested in Nebraska during this cycle, and one — Dan Osborn, running as an independent against Deb Fischer — is a statistical tie?)

But this lack of polling or coverage means our visibility into actual life in MT is limited to people we know and the occasional story carried by the mainstream press. You may recall that sad rally that TFG held with Tim Sheehy in Bozeman. The one where he was late (supposedly because of mechanical problems with his plane, but really because he owed money to the Bozeman airport, and so he had to land in Billings), and no one showed up?

(I remember thinking it was a sharp contrast between that rally and the Harris-Walz rally in AZ.)

And flooding the zone with BS polls is what they do:

Link to tweet

We have 38 days. Let's keep fighting.

[cilla4progress]

5. Based on today's Cook report.

Our family sent Tester $75 today.

[keep_left]

4. Tester's challenger, Tim Sheehy, is an utter chud...

...right out of central casting. I made the mistake of tuning in my local over-the-air OANN channel ( a new thing of theirs called "OAN Plus" ), and Sheehy was the guest on a moronic show called "Real America" or something.

https://democraticunderground.com/100219501788#post12

[2naSalit]

9. He's a replica of vance.

[lees1975]

6. Wasn't Tester a goner the last time he ran, according to the polls?

First of all, you have to consider, in Montana, 20,000 votes is almost 5% of the total votes. I think he's won each time he ran by about that many votes, and in 2018, he trailed Rosendale by 4 or 5 points right up to election day. Then he won. Polling accuracy goes down the smaller the sample. And really, in Montana, it takes someone who knows how to get out the vote without anywhere near the kind of media available in most places. I have a good friend who grew up there who lived in a place where they didn't have television until cable came out. And the only radio stations he could get were at night, on the AM side of the dial, and one from Canada. I'm sure it's better now, but that's a huge state and a very small population.

I sent him a donation. He's still very much in it.

[Self Esteem]

7. No. Pretty much all polls had Tester up last time.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/senate/general/2018/montana/rosendale-vs-tester

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2018-midterm-election-forecast/senate/montana/

[lees1975]

12. I trust both of those, especially their archived data, implicitly.

[Self Esteem]

14. You're free to back up your claim he trailed by 4-5 up through election day.

You won't, of course, because you know it isn't true.

[Polybius]

18. He was up

And he's down by 5-7 now.

[tritsofme]

8. I think this is still a winnable race, and still our best path to maintaining the majority.

Tester is a tough SOB, I think he will surprise us on election night.

[2naSalit]

10. According to..?

Where are you getting your info?

Polls, like GPS in your car, don't work in Montana.

Thanks for your gloom and doom but over here, in Montana, it's not looking that way, thank you very much.

[cilla4progress]

16. Glad to hear it!

Here's what I read this morning.

https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/4876084-montana-senate-tester-sheehy-cook-report/

And this.

https://www.newsweek.com/montana-poll-tim-sheehy-jon-tester-senate-1958532

Sent Jon $75 today between my hubs and me. Our daughter has lived there since 2016, and we enjoy our many visits tremendously!

[Polybius]

19. According to every poll and expert

The odds of him winning are incredibly low. It sucks, but it's the most likely outcome.

[ratchiweenie]

11. Where are the national Dems and their money. I see twice as many Sheehy ads as Tester ads. He needs more support is they

want to hold the senate.

[lees1975]

13. Ads are good for moving maybe 1% of the voters. Maybe.

It's the ground game that gets the turnout. And ask someone from Montana how well money from outside the state plays to voters in an election.

[Mysterian]

15. Tester made the awful decision to try and appease the trump cultists

He has not endorsed Harris. This just makes him look weak. He should be calling out the traitor trump and rallying all Montanans loyal to the USA.

https://dailymontanan.com/2024/09/26/testers-endorsement-says-nothing-but-signals-a-great-deal/

[Maru Kitteh]

17. We should NOT give up! Abortion is on the ballot and I've seen fewer POS signs

cluttering the landscape than the last two elections featured, and fewer Bubba Gauche pickups.

[Fresh_Start]

20. Still supporting tester

I'm also sending money to Osborn. Always with prayers...we need to hold the senate

[cilla4progress]

21. I think the Newsweek or another article said

national Dems are starting to pour money into Montana