Harris will win in a landslide; MAGA & MSM will wonder how those neck-n-neck polls could have been so wrong

[Sibelius Fan]

MAGA will claim it proves cheating on a global scale. The MSM will bothersider it, saying, MAGA might have a point.

Of course, the answer is that their polls were horribly skewed to conjure up a horse race, which it hasn’t been since the debate.

[Deuxcents]

1. I'm not answering any polls so there's lots of us out here 🤗

[ColinC]

3. Same

[ShazzieB]

32. Me, too.

[slightlv]

33. Me three!

[Demsrule86]

68. I do answer polls so was called twice lately...both times Roe was missing

as an important issue. I refused to do the poll...even though they tried to get me to.

[ColinC]

2. I mean... the polls will be fairly accurate.

But considering so many states are within the margin of error, her electoral college landslide will still be unexpected to the extent that she was losing in polls within the MOE (and some outside of the MOE) in way more states than would be expected.

[bullimiami]

7. They won't. They haven't been for years. Decades.

They are all over the place. And then after the election of course some are right just like a broken clock.

[ColinC]

9. They have been fairly accurate generally with some exceptions.

I reviewed recently the 2020 polls and results and surprisingly found even those averages in nearly all the states were within the MOE.

2022 was only a percentage off in the popular vote as well.

The real problem is that people use their assumptions to validate results within the MOE and think because those assumptions were wrong than the polls were wrong. But really, they weren’t. They assumption of which side the MOE would fall on was simply the thing that was wrong.

For instance if Kamala Harris wins Ohio when the polls say Trump will win by 3 and the MOE for most polls was within 5 or 6, , then her winning by 3.5 is just around the MOE. But because Ohio is considered a red state, most people will be shocked and say the polls were wrong because they predicted Trump to win. They didn’t exactly predict Trump to win though, they predicted a range and the range was accurate.

[KPN]

35. Which is why the polls are all over the place and,

from the common sense perspective, inaccurate. An MOE of 5 or 6% in itself exceeds the common notion of accuracy; it in itself recognizes the potential for a real difference between results and “expectations”. But the common person does not know this, ergo, from the common person perspective the polls are and were — in 2016 and 2022 — wrong,

[ColinC]

41. Well perhaps the "common sense" perspective and "common people" should try to obtain a better understanding of what

polls actually are. Because if people want something that can predict the future, they are looking for a time machine, not a poll. However, if they want a general idea within a standard range and trend for the direction of public opinion that cannot actually predict anything, then perhaps they should take a look at some polling. But it seems common folks are angry because they are expecting something that simply doesn’t exist.

There was only one time where polls were ever actually almost spot on in a presidential election. That was 2008. It was an uncanny occurrence in a historically abnormal election cycle. That was one time… In nearly a hundred years of polling where something like that happened.

Polling has rarely been spot on within a small deviation(and it isn’t designed to be). It’s when it is exactly accurate that the rarity occurs.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

43. We Psych majors called Stats "Sadistics"

Still wonder how I got an A in it. Statistics was never second nature to me, I always had to refer back and forth to the book instead of it flowing easily for me.

[OAITW r.2.0]

4. Harris - +15MMM votes.

[dchill]

15. I like your number!

[Polybius]

19. Bookmarking

Please be right.

[Self Esteem]

38. Not gonna happen.

[DeepWinter]

47. Nobody wins

by the popular vote. We've seen that enough.

[WarGamer]

5. 5 weeks from Tuesday... we'll ALL know.

[JustAnotherGen]

10. I think we are looking at six weeks

Plus a few days. The state and county level election shenanigans is going to delay it. I don't think in my lifetime I'll have another night like 92 or 2008.

[dchill]

16. I really hope you are right.

The Trumplies are planning lots of roadblocks.

[former9thward]

6. What is your definition of a landslide?

[Sibelius Fan]

13. A bigger margin of victory than Biden/Harris in 2020.

[Silent Type]

28. Considering the thin margins in key states, wouldn't call 2020 a landslide. But I'll take a slim margin win.

[Self Esteem]

40. In popular vote or electoral college?

Regardless, Harris isn't likely to win more electoral votes than Biden did in 2020 and I am skeptical she'll win by a larger popular vote margin, either.

Biden's popular vote win was the second largest of the 21st Century and only behind Obama's in 2008.

[Brother Buzz]

8. My Magic 8 Ball agrees

[liberal N proud]

11. I pray that you are correct

[Prairie Gates]

12. Yeah, that's not going to happen

It's a coin toss. Trump may win. Harris may win. There won't be a landslide.

[Tree Lady]

67. I feel same way just heard economy is most important

to most people and they think Trump is better on it...I really think when it comes to the economy most people aren't looking at what the economists are, they are looking at price of things and how high their taxes are.

So my fingers are crossed that her message and truth gets out to enough to win.

[Kingofalldems]

14. Please no overconfidence.

[DinahMoeHum]

17. Stuart Stevens (Lincoln Project) predicts this. . .

. . .that the race may look close now, but come the last week of October, the bottom is going to fall out under Trump and the GOP big time. That is also the period when early voting is in full swing in most states.

https://www.huffpost.com/entry/stuart-stevens-trump-crash-prediction_n_66d684cde4b0f968d26d82c2

“Trump lost by 7 million votes [in 2020],” . . . “He needs new customers. What is he doing to attract new customers?”

Stevens said Trump has no new vision, promise or policy that brings new voters, which is why he is “stuck” at about 46% in polls, which is what he had in his losing 2020 campaign.

“Even when it was versus Biden after that bad debate, he still had trouble moving north of 47%,” he said.

“I think the more likely scenario is that this race is gonna be close until maybe Oct. 20th, 25th, and then I just think the bottom’s gonna start to drop out for Trump because he’s not acquiring new voters,” he said. “This is what happened to Carter in ’80, and I think there’s a lot of similarities here.”

(Presumably, the percentages are on a national level here)

[Self Esteem]

42. His comparison is not a good one.

Trump is generally polling between 45-48 nationally. 538 has him at 45.7 - or basically 46%, which is around where he hit in 2016 and 2020.

I see no reason to believe he won't hit that again in November. There's very good odds that if you voted for Trump in 2016 and again in 2020, you're not going to just start to abandon him now. Maybe some will - but at most it drops him from 47% to 45% at worst. And as I said, that was AT WORST. It's nowhere near a guarantee that there's enough 2016 and 2020 Trump voters who will abandon him in 2024 to make up that big of a drop. On top of that, the polling now reflecting Trump at 45-48 might indicate that they've finally figured out how to poll his support. Four years ago, Trump was in the low-40s in so many polls that when he finished at nearly 47% nationally, it meant the polling was wrong.

I'm inclined to believe he is polling about where he'll finish.

For most the 1980 race, Carter polled around the high 30s and low 40s. Only a couple times - including right after the DNC that year, did Carter get into the mid-40s. The bottom with Carter had already fallen out. It fell out in the early spring and he never recovered. He was always polling dismally low, even in polls where he led (like 41-34 over Reagan according to an April Gallup poll).

The bottom has not fallen out with Trump. And it won't. He'll still probably get 46% of the popular vote and likely hit that total in many swing states. Anyone expecting his support to finally collapse has not been paying attention.

Where this election is won or lost for Harris depends on the other support out there. If they go third party, like they did in 2016, she is going to be in trouble. If they coalesce around her, like they did Biden in 2020, she will win. But I see no reason to believe there will be a surge of support that turns this race into a romp. 2020 came down to 46,000 votes COMBINED in Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin. I suspect we'll see something closer than that. And right now, it wouldn't surprise me if she lost both Arizona and Georgia - tho won Wisconsin.

[CTyankee]

60. Have you factored in the women voters who are in various stages of rage over the abortion issue and the general

horror at the way Trump treats women and picks on people who are vulnerable and "weak" in his opinion?

[Self Esteem]

63. Yes.

[CTyankee]

64. Why do you believe that it won't have a very BIG effect on the numbers of votes cast for Harris?

[Self Esteem]

66. I believe what I'm being told directly by the Harris campaign.

I work for my state party. Every Monday we are on a conference call with the Harris campaign, other state parties and congressional campaigners to get an update on the race. I just had another call this morning. It was the same as last week: this is a toss-up race.

Then they run through the numbers.

Yes, Harris' strength among women voters will help. But guess what? As big of a margin she sees with women? Trump is seeing it with men - maybe even more.

The campaign expects that Trump will do better among men than he did in 2020 (he won that group 53-45), which will negate some, not all, of the advantages she sees in the gaps with women voters.

[CTyankee]

69. So it comes down to turnout, right?

Which party is more engaged in GOTV?

It seems to me that if you have both parties equally dedicated to their candidate that turnout will determine the outcome. How are we doing, from your perspective, in terms of plans to get folks to the polls on election day (that is, if they haven't already voted)?

We vote on Election Day. Being older and retired we have fewer outside commitments that would interfere with our doing that.

[Self Esteem]

70. Yes. Turnout will be key.

I think Democrats are way more enthused than they were a couple months ago and that, I believe, will tip the race in their favor.

But it's still going to be close.

It's just an unfortunate reality with the electoral college.

[CTyankee]

71. I'm betting on a really pissed off women voters. Hoping that rage propels more Dem voters.

I may need tranquilizers...

[HUAJIAO]

18. Sibelius

I'm playing the Sibelius 2nd symphony in February. :&gt )

[Wednesdays]

25. I hope you win. nt

[HUAJIAO]

55. LOLOL!!!!

[PCIntern]

46. My all-time favorite symphonic piece of music

[HUAJIAO]

56. It's a killer for the timpanist (me) because of all the unending rolls !!!

[PCIntern]

57. From the time I was a tiny kid

I loved that piece. The Philadelphia Orchestra recording with Ormandy I always felt was the best American interpretation of the lyricism of the symphony.

I always noted the prevalence of the tympani!!

[HUAJIAO]

58. The timpanist was probably Fred Hinger.

He later moved to the Metropolitan Opera.

Sibelius as known to timpanist as the roll king.. or sometimes the arm buster! Almost all his pieces are like that.

[PCIntern]

62. Fascinating...

I never knew that! Thanks!

[CTyankee]

65. Well, that's a barn burner ending for sure!

[IronLionZion]

20. I hope so, and win downticket congressional races

it would be sweet to win the house and senate too. We need important legislation passed and appointees confirmed.

[padfun]

21. Everyone seems to have forgotten Roevember.

nt

[lees1975]

22. It's already outside the margins where it finished in 2020.

With the possible exception of Georgia, where it's supposedly tied.

[Wednesdays]

23. It'll all come down to turnout

Get out the vote, and we turn this into reality!

[valleyrogue]

24. She is a shoo-in, just like Biden would have been, just like any Democrat would have been.

There are really just two issues in this election that amount to anything:

Trump himself is the issue (and to a lesser extent Vance), and people are sick to death of him.
Abortion and reproductive rights. Women are pissed off, and this is why there is all this talk by the religious right especially to get rid of the 19th Amendment.

The only question is how Trump's cult is going to react when the inevitable defeat happens. That is the scary part.

[Figarosmom]

26. Well if theyd bother to look whats going on

In the real world for a change. Trumps rally are tiny with people walking out whom I would bet won't bother voting since most of his cult weren't voters before. And Kamalas and Tins rallies are packed and endorsements everyday from real influencers. They better get with the program before they become abetters to an insurrection attempt.

[kimbutgar]

27. I feel more confident now than in 2016.

He is donOLD and was exciting to those not informed. Now he’s known and he’s a mean a hole bastard that’s the bully you knew in High school and mean Frat guy in college!

Kamala is exciting and new and so full of energy! I look forward to her being the first female POTUS!

[sprinkleeninow]

31. Plus, the stunt Comey pulled on HRC just b4 the election.

😡

[bluesbassman]

29. And we should never, ever let them forget it.

Nor should we forgive them.

[ecstatic]

30. my sanity depends on it. nt

[The Roux Comes First]

34. It Has Not Been a "Horse Race" for Six Weeks or So Now, Except in the Mind of Those Desperate to Make It So

Like, say, the big media, mostly owned by gazillionaires (NYT, WaPo, WSJ, etc.) and counting on clicks and ad revenue and desperately averse to admitting they have ever been beholden to anything resembling "bothsiderism" or even vaguely uneasy about any taint of liberal bias! What a joke they have become for their horror of actually being tagged for doing real journalism.

Still, the bottom line is Get Out Our Vote!!

[Self Esteem]

37. The Harris campaign does not believe this.

I will be on a call with campaign officials tomorrow since that's when they hold their calls with the state parties to give them an update on the race. But the last call I was on (last Monday), they were consistent in their message: this is basically a 50/50 election and it will be closer than 2020. This isn't a game they're playing to try to motivate supporters and keep them from not being complacent. This is how they view the race.

As of today, 9/29/24, the race is not shaping up to be a blowout.

And if you don't believe me, just look at Harris' schedule next week and where the campaign is spending most its money.

Most their rallies are in the rustbelt states. Most their advertising dollars are going to the rustbelt states. Harris has prioritized Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin over every other swing state - including Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina. Since becoming the nominee, Harris has campaigned 13 times in Pennsylvania alone. That includes nearly all her time spent in Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina combined (16 stops among those four states).

More importantly, she has zero campaign stops planned for Florida or Texas. Maybe that changes but it's not going to be a landslide without either of those states.

If this was shaping up to be a landslide, she'd be extending the map or spending more time in Georgia and Arizona because places like Pennsylvania and Michigan would be a lock (or close to it).

November is going to be a nailbiter. Anyone who says otherwise is just whistling in the wind.

[Sugarcoated]

45. The dark money negative ads here in Philly

are non-stop. She needs to majorly step up her ads to counter it.

[Buckeyeblue]

54. This is exactly correct.

And Harris is doing the right thing by focusing on PA, MI and WI. We can't afford to take any of these three states for granted.

[Ms. Toad]

39. So says 2016. n/t

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

44. Can't see him getting more that 75 mil

It's where the 75 million are that causes the problem.

[mucholderthandirt]

48. This is why the polls are so "even". It's to set it up to look like cheating when she wins with 300+ electoral votes.

It will cause a lot of chaos, but she's going to win big, huge, and she'll be confirmed and inaugurated. Trump is a loser. He doesn't even care about being president, outside of keeping his criminal trials dead in the water. He's just saying what his MAGAts want to hear, so they don't stay home.

Trump can't get any higher in the polls, there's not as many for him as the MSM bobbleheads like to report. Harris is rising, because more people are registering to vote, more undecided came to her side, more Independents are coming to her side.

I don't care about any undecided voters. They're either Trump or staying home. They don't matter. It's not about them, and people should leave them behind. What we need are the new voters, the young people, the people who aren't MAGA and don't feel they can vote for Trump.

[Self Esteem]

50. The polls are tight because the election is tight.

I'm amazed that after 2016 and 2020 some still don't get that Trump isn't going to get blown out.

This is the third election cycle where I've heard that the Democrats were poised to blow Trump out of the water. It didn't materialize in 2016 and 2020 but somehow we're supposed to expect it this go around?

This election is going to be way closer than I think many of you guys realize. I think Harris will win but don't kid yourself: November is going to be much closer than 2020 was and 2020 was pretty dang close (Biden essentially won with 46,000 votes across three states).

Harris might overperform the polls marginally (as in maybe win Pennsylvania by 4 instead of 2) but she's not going to do so to the extent that it changes the math all that much.

Georgia will be exceptionally close.

Arizona is a tough state for her right now.

North Carolina has been a tease for Democrats now every election going back to 2012 and no one has been able to re-win it since Obama carried it by a few thousand in 2008.

Harris isn't focused on Florida and Texas, as she has not held one rally in either state and doesn't plan to - this after the Biden 2020 campaign thoroughly invested in Florida and put some energy into Texas.

Nevada is also much closer today than it was in 2020 and at the end, they barely won that state four years ago.

Obviously, the race could change dramatically over the next month but it's largely been static since the conventions. There is no reason to believe a groundswell of support will rise up and lift Harris to a 2008-like victory. It isn't likely to happen and people need to stop predicting it because it'll only cause for massive worry on election night when Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are too close to call throughout the night. People need to ready themselves for a very close election so that they can mentally handle an election night that might not be decided that Tuesday.

At the end of the day, we're a 45/45/10 country.

The Democrat will always win 45%.

The Republican will always win 45%.

How the election is decided comes down to that 10% who lean one way or the other.

How those 10% vote will decide November.

Most those 10% do not, and will never support Trump. The problem is that they've proven in the past to be open to third party candidates.

Harris needs that vote to be as small as possible and she'll win. But if it's, say, 4% or greater? Then it becomes tricky, even if she wins most the rest.

But regardless, there is no evidence Trump's support is collapsing. He might not be winning over new voters but as we saw in 2016, he can still win pulling in 47% of the vote.

Which so happens to be his 2020 total for the most part.

[Johnny2X2X]

49. I think she'll outperform the polls

But it won't be a landslide.

Trump's act has worn thin with more American voters than in 2020. He's not going to get more votes in the swong states than he did in 2020. Harris will exceed what Biden did.

[peggysue2]

51. That's exactly why there are so many trash polls

It soothes Donnie's ego momentarily and it forms the foundation for the FRAUD charges. When Harris wins, the MAGA world can start screeching:

"But, but the polls. It was neck-to-neck, so the Dems cheated and stole another election."

The True Believers need a steady dose of outrage to the end of this election and beyond.

Confusion and chaos.

Agent Orange and his sycophants will use the rage as a drug to spur their supporters, once again.

Enough is enough! We need to wash these fools into the Deep Blue Sea.

[OLDMDDEM]

52. This race won't be close. Trump will again be humiliated.

[the_liberal_grandpa]

53. Follow The Money...

Data scientist Thomas Miller who accurately predicted the 2020 election also believes Harris will win in a landslide because they are putting down their hard earned money betting on it.

https://www.newsweek.com/data-scientist-predicts-kamala-harris-landslide-2024-election-1955575

The media, i believe, is pushing the close election story simply to get more eyeballs and money.

The only good thing is that if the media reported that Harris will win in a landslide people may not think they need to vote.

Hillary can tell you all about that.

[Initech]

59. Because the fuckheads (powers) that be only care about us being divided.

So they can add extra zeroes to their already ill gotten gains. A free and fair America goes against their precious profit margins. Once again, nearly all our problems can be traced back to billionaires.

[Torchlight]

61. I believe she will win, and I've few doubts about it.

I admit the margins of victory are a guessing game for me though, but maybe not so much as for the idiot who said "she'll lose by double digits!"