Florida might be fucked. These storms will get worse.. and then WORSE. And more frequent.

[Imallin4Joe]

Global warming is unleashing hell and will not stop.

These super-storms will become even more common events. They already are.

This shit will not end.

Except in disaster.

IT WILL NOT STOP.

Al Gore was right.

[Lunabell]

1. I wish I could afford to move.

We think New Mexico, around Taos, would be wonderful. I love the artsy community there. And it's blue, blue, blue!!

[ornotna]

14. I hear ya

We're in that same rickety boat.

[markodochartaigh]

28. I retired to SW Florida because

I wanted a tropical garden. And with the speculative boom and bust cycles I found a place that, after more than three decades as a nurse, I could afford. But it isn't a concrete block house, it is wooden framed, and it was built in 1988, so it is one of the oldest houses around here. My insurance was cancelled and Citizen's isn't going to be an option unless I get a new roof, new wiring, and maybe not even then since it is a frame home. But the uncleared lot next door sold for half again as much as I paid for my house. And anyway my niece and nephew don't need the money and aren't going to have children.
I feel badly for others though. It feels like the stories that news reports covered of Russia and Eastern Europe after communism fell may happen here.

[buzzycrumbhunger]

30. Same here

I’m in Sarasota and we got off light this time. My daughter is in Durham, NC, though—nowhere near the coast but somehow untouched in her RV on a mountain. (Phew!)

I don’t think coastal states are going to be alone in this crap, though I am pretty pissed off that we have another storm generating where Helene started and expected to follow the same damned path this week—as did the last three storms before that!

[Kaleva]

39. Isn't New Mexico expected to be hard hit by climate change?

[RainCaster]

44. NM doesn't have hurricanes like FL

[Kaleva]

46. But it is expected to have extreme heat and drought

[RainCaster]

63. That hasn't chased insurance companies out of NM

At least not to the extent seen in FL.

[Kaleva]

115. Extreme heat and drought won't destroy buildings

[womanofthehills]

111. NM was hotter this summer but we got lots of spring rain

Everything was green all summer where I live in the middle of NM in the foothills of the Manzano Mts. 6 ft weeds and lots of cedar and pine tree growth. Every yr is different - 2022 lots of summer rain, 2023 barely a monsoon & dryer than usual & this yr a great monsoon with lots of wildflowers.

I’m at 6500 ft and only had a few days over 100 but it was still hotter than ever. However- NM cools down at night so with my deck doors open at night - most nights I slept under a feather comforter.

[Lunabell]

58. Everwhere is going to be hit by climate change.

But, we're 63 and 69. Not much time left on this formally beautiful blue marble. At least we'd be in a blue state with normal thinking.

If my wife receives a nice inheritance from her dad, (very wealthy, almost 90 and longs to join his deceased wife) that is exactly what we will do. But, he may leave it all to his church. Not our money to really count on or expect.

[Kaleva]

71. The effects of climate change won't be uniform around the world

While some regions are expected to be hard hit, others may become more suitable for human habitation.

Just my opinion but I wouldn't be moving to any area where water is expected to become more and more scarce and temperatures go higher increasing the need for A/C and thus end up competing with locales who can't move for resources .

[Lunabell]

75. Well, where is a blue state that is acceptable?

I don't know if one.

[Kaleva]

81. From what I've read, the Great Lakes region and parts of the North East

may be areas to consider.

[Lunabell]

104. Ih, I forgot to mention

where it doesn't snow or get really cold. We're old and that just won't work for our old bones.

[womanofthehills]

112. Northern New Mexico

Greener than the rest of the state - However - during a good monsoon the whole state can be green for months.

[Lunabell]

120. We really want to get out of the south.

Too red. NM seems to be our best choice. But, no snow or freezing weather. I'm too old to go out in cold and ice. I haven't seen that weather since 1980 when I lived in Nashville. I'm afraid I'll slip and break a hip!

[aggiesal]

45. Santa Fe would be better ....

Art community there as well, with little more access to other cultures but close enough & far enough from Albuquerque for entertainment facilities.

[BOSSHOG]

2. If I were an ignorant dumbass

I would say God Hates Ron desantis. But I’m not, so I won’t.

[dchill]

26. In that case, I might be God!

[buzzycrumbhunger]

31. Doesn't everyone hate him?

[kelly1mm]

65. Does God hate the approximately 45% of Florida voters that vote D? Again, if you were

an ignorant dumbass, of course ......?

[atreides1]

83. Remember the story of Lot

God wiped out two cities, because he was lazy and wanted Lot to find 10 innocent men...one would think that an omnipotent being would be able to at least give Lot a push in the right direction?

But, Lot skipped town and God wiped out everybody.

[WestMichRad]

3. Not just Florida

Southern Mexico (Acapulco area) just get blasted for the second year in a row.

There are lots of vulnerable areas.

[Frasier Balzov]

4. There is a reason the state capital was established up at the north end.

Everything south of a line from Pensacola to St. Augustine was considered too vulnerable to the risk of being wiped away or submerged.

[ShazzieB]

33. Also, Tallahassee was halfway between Pensacola and St. Augustine.

In the early 1820s, legislators transferred government business from St. Augustine to Pensacola for alternating sessions. Travel was hazardous and took almost 20 days. As a result, Tallahassee was chosen as the capital of American Florida in 1824, primarily because it was the midway point between the two principal cities.

https://www.floridacapitol.myflorida.com/the_capitol/capitol_history

[Lunabell]

60. And also,

anything below Tallahassee was pretty much swamp land until the 20th century.

[wcmagumba]

5. I feel bad for all the folks being affected by climate change...

I haven't noticed much change in SC Kansas (my home), they are saying tornado alley (goes from OK to NE) is moving east.

[Intractable]

6. Last week, if someone said to me, how can I escape the weather disasters in Florida?, I'd have told them

to move to Western NC. In particular, check out Asheville.

When I lived there, I never feared that there could be tropical storms and floods. It seemed impossible.

It will take Asheville years to recover.

Joke: There are many people who moved from NY to FL, and eventually moved to NC. We call them half-backs .

[roamer65]

7. We have a lot of thinking to do in the Great Lakes and Northeast.

I think we need to call a regional leadership conference and start thinking as a unified region.

In other words a common policy on northward migration, a consortium so to speak.

Migration restrictions and more restrictive residency requirements should be on the table for discussion.

We should also invite the premiers of Ontario, Manitoba, Quebec and the Canadian Maritime provinces to the table.

[BrianTheEVGuy]

8. Disagree

We are one country. We shouldn’t be creating exemptions to the constitutional right to travel and live anywhere in the country.

The Northeast is also VERY vulnerable. Especially New England, New York, and NJ.

With ten feet of sea level rise, Boston, Providence, New Haven, NYC, Newark, Philadelphia, Boston, and DC are completely or mostly underwater. Midwesterners will be seeing a lot of refugees from the east coast as well.

[roamer65]

10. The hurricane season is far from done.

Another hurricane appears to be forming south of Cuba.

Time will tell.

[BrianTheEVGuy]

12. Hurricanes are but one symptom of climate change

There’s also sea level rise. That will be what renders large portions of the country unlivable.

[roamer65]

13. Not all of it.

But it will be a vastly different continent geographically, demographically and politically by 2100.

[GoreWon2000]

51. Along with longer and hotter heat waves and bigger and hotter burning wildfires.

[ancianita]

37. Here's NOAA'S 7-day forecast that shows it's headed more toward Mexico.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

[retread]

82. No! Just NO! This shows absolutely NOTHING about any projected PATH!! It shows the area which there is a

50% chance of tropical formation through 7 days.

[ancianita]

87. Dude, calm down. Forecasting probabilities of path is at the level of outlook, watch and warning.

Right now, in the Gulf, a hurricane formation isn't present, so there can't be a 'path' forecast; thus, an 'outlook.'

Today's 8 AM update states: Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

[retread]

110. Didn't you say the 7 day forecast shows it headed more toward Mexico?

[ancianita]

113. Here's today's 2 pm NOAA outlook. What does it look like to you?

See that arrow? I don't know about you but I live in Florida, and I'm not seeing the danger ahead that folks in Central America & Mexico are seeing.

[retread]

119. I see the arrow. "I'm not seeing the danger ahead that folks in Central America & Mexico are seeing" This map

is saying there is a 40-60% chance a tropical cyclone will form in the next 7 days in the orange shaded area. It says absolutely nothing about a projected path if and when the cyclone forms.

[ancianita]

121. Yep, there's a tropical storm ahead.

And yes, logically, weather prediction is supposed to say absolutely nothing about a projected path until when/if an actual cyclone forms and moves. Glad that's cleared up.

[markodochartaigh]

32. I agree with you, except,

by the time that sea level rises 10 feet, there will be less than a billion people on the planet. Sure, Miami, New Orleans, the North China Plain, Mumbai, Shanghai, Lagos, there are many places that sea level rise is already a problem.

But less than 5% of the excess energy from anthropogenic climate change goes into melting ice. And ice is an incredible heat sink, due to the latent heat of fusion of water.
By the time that enough energy has been released to raise sea level 3 meters, even with ice shelf destabilization, so much energy will have been released into the atmosphere and ocean that serial cereal harvest failures will have killed the majority of humanity. Not to mention lethal wet bulb temperatures, which are not just a problem for the tropics.

[Think. Again.]

9. You might be over-estimating the value of migration to the northeast...

...you might want to look into how climate change has been hitting that area too, I know that Vermont has been, and well continue to be, hit hard by severe runoff flooding from increased rainfall, the coast and inland waterways of the mid-atlantic and Maine are eroding faster than expected, etc.

[roamer65]

11. A transformed North America.

https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/

Beggars won’t be able to be choosers in 2100. People will go to where the best chance for survival exists.

[Think. Again.]

20. That's a great site!

The map is comprehensive and shows that for livability of the general population, when looking at all 6 considerations of Heat, Wet Bulb, Farm Crop Yields, Sea Level Rise, Very Large Fires, and Economic Damages, the best possible area is the northern half of the center of the country, west of the Great lakes, including North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska.

I didn't expect that.

[roamer65]

21. It reaffirmed my decision to stay in my home state of Michigan for retirement.

[moniss]

56. I would point out though that

the agricultural abundance of those states is not guaranteed under climate change scenarios. It also has to be remembered that the concentration of crop pests may greatly increase as well. A successful crop year is more vulnerable than people think. If you have change that brings increased snow level melt, soaking early rains and flooding during planting time then planting can be precluded until well into the growing season. Crops have a certain number of days for maturity to harvest. If the time frame available is shortened too much then you may well have a decreased yield. It is not unusual in corn country for example during uneven planting times due to wet weather to see one field doing well and a field next to it be somewhat stunted and doing poorly with wetter areas of the field showing the worst effects. You can imagine if this current scenario gets magnified.

Then there are the effects of uneven rainfall and overly dry/hot conditions after planting. Storm events can damage crops over a wide area reducing yields even further. Heavy rains during harvest time can preclude being able to move equipment through the fields and may delay harvest as well. Waiting until ground is frozen to harvest corn is not unheard of but doing so means that time for the stalks/husks to decay into the soil and provide replenishment is reduced also. Soil management is critical especially in a changing climate scenario and increased or continued reliance on chemicals is an area of great concern already let alone in a much more challenging soil management/soil chemistry environment.

This all leads back to something from a long ago course I took on environmental issues. There is the notion of technological developments being able to "always save us". It leads people to thoughts like "somebody will think of something". There is no actual basis to conclude such a thing. Has it happened that way many times? Yes. Has it failed at times? Yes. Therefore, as many of us in the early environmental movement said, we need to make changes early on while we have the time for them to have an impact. Mankind has mostly failed to do that.

Logic tells us that competition for resources and livable areas will increase within nations and between nations. Logic also tells us that given this competition there will be increased tensions. Logic further informs that given our human history when tensions have increased dramatically over resources the parties resort to conflict and violence whether between nations or within them. It is not a bright future no matter where in the world or within a nation one tries to find refuge.

[Think. Again.]

79. Excellent points...

...and I'd like to add the one consideration that no one ever wants to talk about, which is the absolute main consideration...

Overpopulation.

The number of humans on the planet has doubled from it's highest point in the in the short period of one human lifetime, an instant in geological time. We've reached the pinnacle of exponential growth.

We all know that what makes life possible in the one place in the universe that has it, our Earth, is the very complex balance of millions of interacting parts and actions, both biological and non-biological (such as Atmospheric CO2 levels, Ocean Tempuratures, Micro/Macronutrients in the soil, even Animals of Prey and Deadly Parasites, etc.) that have developed in unison over billions of years to be the functioning, single active system it is.

And everyone also knows that disrupting the balance of any complex system without allowing that system the time to re-adjust all of it's parts to accomodate a new balance, to adapt, is what causes run-away malfunctions in all of parts, to the point where the moving, active living system becomes a static pile of rotting junk.

The climate change that is about to begin is the re-adjustment our entire planet's active system is making to the imbalance that one single part of it's overall system is causing, the malignant, exponential growth of one single species -Homo sapiens.

[moniss]

84. Yes indeed and the circumstances we

must now face should remind us that in our ignorance we considered the indigenous people of North America to be illiterate, stupid savages. We rejected their beliefs about living in balance and having respect for Nature. It proves something I learned long ago and that is that education and learning facts does not always bring wisdom. In fact many times it is used to push wisdom aside.

[Think. Again.]

88. I agree...

...however I'd like to suggest that the indigenous societies that intentionally preserved the balances they understood were vital, for millennia, were indeed extremely well educated about, and very well aware of the facts that were pertinent to the decisions they prioritized.

[NJCher]

34. you can put your county in

and see how you will fare in the future.

This was really fascinating, roamer. Thanks for posting it.

[roamer65]

54. Np.

Information is power. In this case, the power to plan ahead.

[yonder]

70. +1. Thanks for posting this. Consider making it it's own thread?

[bdamomma]

92. Thanks roamer65

good info.

[Luciferous]

100. Very cool map! Glad I'm in Wisconsin 🙂

[marybourg]

17. That way lies fascism. The right wing of the future.

If I were you, I’d delete this post.

[roamer65]

19. What's your solution to the northward migration from Central America, Mexico and the Southern United States?

Do tell.

https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/

[markodochartaigh]

42. I'll butt in.

It isn't just a US problem, Europe and other regions are very soon going to face even more climate refugees than we do already. And the climate is only going to get less favorable.

I think that immediately in countries in Asia, Africa, and Central and South America underground shelters with windcatchers should be built.
I think that we have passed the time when heat tolerant RuBisCo activase research is likely to provide a solution to famine. I think that we need to eat far lower on the food chain. Technology should be developed to make nutritious and palatable food from algae, yeast, and bacteria.

Will we do it? Of course not. But those strategies could help some of the 99% who won't even be able to attempt to migrate.

[marybourg]

22. Alien immigration is a federal issue. Internal immigration is an non-issue under our

Constitution. We all have the right to travel, migrate, seek succor anywhere in any of the states. There will be no regional compacts or residency restrictions under a democratic United States. A United States that seeks to pit established residents against climate refugees is a fascist United States.

I find your post shocking,

[roamer65]

24. Opinion.

And I take it as such.

EOM.

[kelly1mm]

67. Freedom of movement within the US for US citizens is not an 'opinion'. It is settled law. nt

[roamer65]

89. Settled law like Roe v Wade?

I heard that phrase for that too.

Nothing is assured in life.

[hunter]

91. I'd like to live in my great grandparent's house in San Francisco.

Unfortunately I don't have four million dollars to buy it back.

My great grandmother sold the house a long time ago when it was just an ordinary home in a middle class neighborhood.

Migration in the U.S.A. is controlled by money.

Ask all those people who sold their homes and moved away from California because of "taxes" or "liberals" or "gays," etc., only to discover that places like Texas are not the paradise they expected and it's near impossible to move back.

Certainly anyone can move to San Francisco but many who do end up homeless, even those who find work there.

[Kaleva]

41. Great Lakes region is predicted to become a mecca for climate change refugees.

[democratsruletheday]

94. Mixed feelings....

mostly negative I have to say. Living in Michigan, it's usually been solid 4 season weather patterns my whole life. But now who the hell knows? We do have room though, especially in the Upper Peninsula which is sparsely populated. I think it will wreak havoc on real estate prices but oh well, not much can be done about that. From Arizona over to Florida I foresee a crap ton of people moving here and Wisconsin and Minnesota and MAYBE Ohio and Indiana as well. Sure will change the electoral votes in each state too.

[Kaleva]

95. Yes

[kelly1mm]

61. Your proposal (at least the US part) is totally unconstitutional. Unless you are proposing sucession? nt

[roamer65]

62. Secession, btw.

I’m not sure we would see outright secession, I am assuming that the current trend of weakening federal power will continue due to our extreme political polarization.

This trend, if it continues, will lead to a devolution of powers from the federal government to the states by default.

We are already seeing it on marijuana legalization I would point out.

[kelly1mm]

64. Correct and corrected - too many C's! I agree with your overall premise of a devolution of federal

power over time but 1) that will not be for quite a while and 2) the movement of US citizens within the nominal US will be one of the last rights to go.

[jimfields33]

77. That's ridiculous. We don't even do that for people coming from other countries.

And you want to do that for fellow citizens?

[RussBLib]

15. another one (Kirk? Leslie?) could hit Florida again by weeks end

...and early models show it might follow about the same path as Helene.

How much punishment can you take before you finally decide to move?

https://russblib.blogspot.com

[roamer65]

18. The insurance companies will pull the plug by year's end.

They will pull out of FL completely and speed up ending coverage in the surrounding states.

[markodochartaigh]

43. It was the amazing amount of fraud that started them leaving.

"According to data from the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation, Florida sees a disproportionate number of homeowner lawsuits compared to other states.[3] In fact, in 2019, nearly three-quarters of all such lawsuits filed across the country were in Florida! This has resulted in immense financial strain on resident consumers. The annual cost of a Florida home insurance policy is slated to skyrocket to $4,231 in 2022, nearly three times the US yearly average of $1,406."


https://www.thezebra.com/resources/home/florida-insurance-crisis/#:~:text=In%20fact%2C%20in%202019%2C%20nearly,US%20yearly%20average%20of%20%241%2C406.

[Jack Valentino]

16. I would never choose to live there, myself....

I have never visited the place either, but I can read the news...


yeah, Florida will eventually "go blue"--- when half of it is covered by ocean water because of global warming melting the polar ice caps---

but at least you won't have to pay any state income taxes..... lmao. Dead people never do!

[soandso]

48. I wouldn't live there

because I won't live anywhere with alligators and deadly snakes and I have pets to worry about. However, it's incredibly beautiful and more and more people keep moving there and there's a reason for that. I loved it when I was there. Every place has it pros and cons and the pros for Florida can't be found anywhere else in the continental US.

[Quixote1818]

23. This is worth a watch

[dalton99a]

25. Kick

Once you accept that climate change is fast making large parts of the United States nearly uninhabitable, the future looks like this: With time, the bottom half of the country grows inhospitable, dangerous and hot. Something like a tenth of the people who live in the South and the Southwest — from South Carolina to Alabama to Texas to Southern California — decide to move north in search of a better economy and a more temperate environment. Those who stay behind are disproportionately poor and elderly.

In these places, heat alone will cause as many as 80 additional deaths per 100,000 people — the nation’s opioid crisis, by comparison, produces 15 additional deaths per 100,000. The most affected people, meanwhile, will pay 20% more for energy, and their crops will yield half as much food or in some cases virtually none at all. That collective burden will drag down regional incomes by roughly 10%, amounting to one of the largest transfers of wealth in American history, as people who live farther north will benefit from that change and see their fortunes rise.

The millions of people moving north will mostly head to the cities of the Northeast and Northwest, which will see their populations grow by roughly 10%, according to one model. Once-chilly places like Minnesota and Michigan and Vermont will become more temperate, verdant and inviting. Vast regions will prosper; just as Hsiang’s research forecast that Southern counties could see a tenth of their economy dry up, he projects that others as far as North Dakota and Minnesota will enjoy a corresponding expansion. Cities like Detroit; Rochester, New York; Buffalo and Milwaukee will see a renaissance, with their excess capacity in infrastructure, water supplies and highways once again put to good use. One day, it’s possible that a high-speed rail line could race across the Dakotas, through Idaho’s up-and-coming wine country and the country’s new breadbasket along the Canadian border, to the megalopolis of Seattle, which by then has nearly merged with Vancouver to its north.

Sitting in my own backyard one afternoon this summer, my wife and I talked through the implications of this looming American future. The facts were clear and increasingly foreboding. Yet there were so many intangibles — a love of nature, the busy pace of life, the high cost of moving — that conspired to keep us from leaving. Nobody wants to migrate away from home, even when an inexorable danger is inching ever closer. They do it when there is no longer any other choice.

https://www.propublica.org/article/climate-change-will-force-a-new-american-migration

[kimbutgar]

27. Floridians might be the new refugees and Florida now longer eligible to be one of the 50 states

At The rate these natural disasters are occurring.

[roamer65]

29. I can guarantee insurance companies are now discussing completely ending policy writings in FL.

How much will the homes and business properties be worth in FL when no one will insure them?

I can also guarantee they are now discussing GA, SC, NC and TN.

[MontanaMama]

36. I can tell you that insurance companies are dropping

homeowners here in western Montana because they live in the “wild land urban interface” prone to wild fire. One such homeowner lives a block from me in a neighborhood within the city limits. This is happening everywhere. My former business partner was just dropped by his insurance company on his cabin on Lindbergh Lake. The company cited wildfire danger as the reason. I don’t know what people with mortgages will do if they can’t get insurance.

I live in Missoula. We had a derecho on July 24th of this year. Derecho storms are extremely rare…they bring winds equivalent to a category 2 hurricane. This is a valley surrounded by mountains. The likelihood of a derecho happening here is slim at best. That storm was followed by two additional violent storms which is unheard of in late summer. We used to joke about how we never get extreme weather…but now we do. I’m still dealing with the storm damage to my house.

The numbers of people who have moved here from southern states is staggering…particularly TX. License plates don’t lie. Why are they here? Rumors in the realty community are that it’s climate change.

[roamer65]

52. I am seeing more CA and TX plates in Michigan.

I know a family that left TX because of politics and climate change.

They didn’t want their daughters in that hellhole.

[soandso]

59. Montana is one of the fastest growing states

1. Idaho
Change in Population (2020-2023): 6.8%

2. Florida
Change in Population (2020-2023): 5.0%

3. South Carolina
Change in Population (2020-2023): 5.0%

4. Texas
Change in Population (2020-2023): 4.7%

5. Montana
Change in Population (2020-2023): 4.5%

https://www.insidermonkey.com/blog/5-fastest-growing-states-in-the-us-1249893/

[kelly1mm]

69. Why are all the top 5 fastest growing (by population) states red states? nt

[soandso]

74. I didn't even notice that

but imagine that's low on the list of how people prioritize where they'd like to live. Good question, though. What I noticed is that three of the states are warm climates, which is not surprising. All three also have alligators.

[jimfields33]

78. Affordability. Can someone living in North Carolina move to California or Washington state?

Highly doubtful. That’s why Californians are moving to red states. They sell their home and can live exceptionally well in a red state. Idaho or Montana for examples.

[MontanaMama]

98. Montana and Idaho have now surpassed

California as "most unaffordable" for home buyers: https://idahocapitalsun.com/2024/09/16/since-pandemic-montana-idaho-have-surpassed-california-as-most-unaffordable-states-for-homebuyers/

I can tell you that wages have not kept up...not even close.

[jimfields33]

102. Wow. That's surprising.

I’m shocked that Montana is expensive. I always thought it was small town 50 grand a house and one stop sign. I was very wrong.

[soandso]

108. Awful!

This has to change, somehow - and I don't know how. People with lots of money descend upon certain places (usually quaint, small towns) and drive the housing prices through the roof, pricing the locals out of their own communities.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

114. When I lived in Helena, rent was $350

1br

[MontanaMama]

116. Typical one bed 1 bath apartment in Missoula is now

around $1000-$1200 per month. My sister just rented a 2 bed/2 bath for $1900 per month. She pays extra for a covered parking space. Houses rent for far more. I don't know how people do it.

[ArkansasDemocrat1]

118. I was earning 14.50 an hour then

My old job now pays $20. But the rent has trebled.

[yonder]

66. Similar situation here, not all that far from you.

Anecdotally, I notice California, Texas and especially much more Florida than ever before.

[MotownPgh]

90. In olden times families built " beach shacks"

We had cheap cottages on the shores, easy to rebuild, much more makeshift. Including the restaurants and bars. Totally different times from expensive waterfront mansions and homes.

[Cheezoholic]

35. I am in no way saying climate change is not affecting our weather, but just blurting shit out like this does no good

First of all, there have only been FOUR Cat5 Hurricanes hit the mainland US (since that seems where the focus of this OP is) in recorded history. Of course FL is going to continue to get hammered by storms because FL has been getting hammered by storms ever since it was FL.

The BIGGEST problem is the millions upon millions of people who have moved into these perilous coastal areas in the last 50 years. These areas have always been perilous. Add to that it doesn't take a "Super Storm" to kill 100's and 100's of people.

There's no question Climate Change, mainly ocean warming with depth, is resulting in extreme weather changes of all kinds. But to broad stroke it every time theres a hurricane disaster does no one no good.

If you want a short term solution to billions of damages and unneeded loss of life from storms in Florida stop shoreline development and let nature re-establish the natural defense against these storms. Be realistic, we're not going back to a 1900's climate for a long time. we need to learn to live with it.

[GoreWon2000]

49. Bigger and stronger hurricanes is clearly part of climate change

This latest hurricane to hit Florida is the latest example of how climate change is clearly taking hold and can't be ignored. This latest hurricane was 420 miles wide which is a significant increase in storm size. You don't seem to understand that Florida has now been hit by 3 hurricanes in the last 13 months. This is not normal. The hurricanes are becoming bigger, stronger and more frequent. This latest hurricane to hit Florida is the strongest hurricane to hit this particular part of Florida since records started being kept in 1810. This is why climate change must now be part of the conversation. This particular storm went from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in less than 12 hours. This was caused by the above normal temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico. There was another hurricane a couple of years ago that hit farther south in Florida that went from a tropical storm to an almost category 6 hurricane in less than 12 hours. This is making it far more difficult for weather forecasters to accurately say what a storm will be and do in order to get people out of harms way. The above normal water temperatures are supercharging these storms and it's only going to get worse
The bigger, stronger and more frequent hurricanes that are happening now are putting the large numbers of people who've moved to Florida in ever greater jeopardy. We haven't even gotten to the ever rising sea levels that are also happening at the same time. Miami has been experiencing sunny day flooding for close to a decade now. Miami Beach is spending millions to raise all of the roadways by a foot in an effort to try to stay ahead of sea level rise.
You're completely wrong to try to downplay the very clear and ever increasing role that climate change is playing in the hurricanes that are now hitting Florida, the sea level rise and the longer and stronger heat waves that are also happening that are putting people's lives at risk. I used to live in Florida so I know first hand. I was there for hurricane Andrew. My father was an engineer and pilot who flew hurricane reconnaissance when he was in the Air Force. My engineer father well understood that the continued burning of fossil fuel was causing our planet to warm abnormally which was leading to changing weather patterns that put human survival at risk. I left Florida because of climate change and I'm grateful that I did because it's only going to get worse. Instead of downplaying the threat of climate change, I highly recommend that you listen to the climate scientists and engineers who are the experts on what in fact is actually happening.

[soandso]

73. Some data

Last edited Sun Oct 6, 2024, 10:43 PM - Edit history (1)

The first recorded tropical cyclone to affect the area that is now the state of Florida occurred in 1523, when two ships and their crews were lost along the western coastline. A total 159 hurricanes are known to have affected the state prior to 1900...



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes#Pre-1900

1900 forward, by decade, major (CAT 3 and up) major hurricanes to hit Florida:

1900-1909: 2 (both cat 3)
1910-1919: 2 (a 3 and a 4)
1920-1929: 2 (both cat 4)
1930-1939: 2 (a 3 and a 5)
1940-1949: 5 (four 4s and one 3)
1950-1959: 2 (a 3 and a 4)
1960-1969: 3 (a 4 and two 3s)
1970-1979: 1 (cat 3)
1980-1989: 1 (cat 3)
1990-1999: 2 (a 5 and a 3)
2000-2009: 5 (four 3s and one 4)
2010-2019: 2 (one 4 and one 5)
and fours years into this decade...
2020-2024: 3 (two 4s and a 3)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Florida_hurricanes#Pre-1900

I asked Bing chat to find any patterns:

Observations:
Fluctuations: The number of major hurricanes per decade fluctuates, with some decades experiencing more activity than others.
Peak Decades: The 1940s and 2000s saw the highest number of major hurricanes, with 5 each.
Recent Activity: The current decade (2020-2024) has already seen 3 major hurricanes in just four years, indicating a potentially active period.

I may ask it more tomorrow (gotta sleep) but it's kind of fascinating. So far, I don't see any evidence of a great increase in major hurricanes for Florida. It's more peaks and troughs.

[GoreWon2000]

101. Online info searcher doesn't know more than the climate scientists

Someone who has to look up information about hurricanes online will never know more than climate scientists who have years of schooling and decades of climate science work experience. The climate scientists are well aware that Florida has had hurricanes. What's happening now is that the hurricanes are larger in size and stronger. The latest hurricane to hit Florida is the first hurricane to hit Florida in the part of Florida that it hit since records started being kept in1810. This hurricane was 420 miles wide. This is not normal. This latest hurricane went in intensity from a tropical storm to a category 4 hurricane in less than 12 hours. This is not normal. The climate scientists understand that the above normal ocean temperatures are causing hurricanes to become bigger, stronger and more unpredictable. Our planet is warming abnormally because the greenhouse gases that are created when fossil fuel is burned are strangling our planet's respiratory system in the same way that the toxins created by cigarette smoking strangle a human being's respiratory system. My engineer/pilot father with more than 40 years of aviation and automotive engineering work experience along with flying hurricane reconnaissance well understood the threat of human caused climate change, how it's killing our planet and threatening the survival of humanity. It's time for you to understand these irrefutable facts as well instead of cherry picking information in order to downplay the very real threat that human survival is facing from human caused climate change. Bigger and stronger hurricanes is only part of what's happening. Our planet is telling us on a daily basis in many different ways that we can no longer burn fossil fuel.

[soandso]

109. The data is from NOAA and the Hurricane Reporting Center

I'm not downplaying anything. These are the facts which you are free to ignore or "downplay". It is what it is.

Diameter of these storms also doesn't = ferocity (wind speeds, eyewall formation, barometric pressure) and there have been much bigger diameter storms, approaching 1000 miles. Additionally, what is known about the record is just a blink of an eye in the history of the earth. The further back we go, the more scant the data.

My advice to you would be to stay far away from the segments of the planet that are hurricane/typhoon country. Meanwhile, though, others will keep moving to such places, in droves, taking into account the risk/benefit or not. Their choice.

[GoreWon2000]

123. Your fact cherrypicking is downplaying the threat

Once again you continue to cherry pick facts in order to claim that hurricane Helen is normal and to downplay the threat that human caused climate change poses to our planet and to human survival. Hurricane Helene was not normal and it's the climate scientists who are saying so. It's pretty outrageous that you think you know more about climate change than the climate scientists. You don't and you never will. The issue of climate change is not just a coastline issue. Ashville, North Carolina is 500 miles inland and has suffered catastrophic hurricane damage in an area that's not in a flood zoon. You make no mention of this fact. You also fail to understand that bigger, stronger and more unpredictable hurricanes are just 1 symptom of human caused climate change. You're completely ignoring the longer and hotter heatwaves, rising sea levels, bigger, more frequent and hotter burning wildfires, tropical diseases now found in non tropical parts of the world such as both West Nile and Zika tropical diseases now being found in most U.S. states. FYI, Phoenix is currently experiencing its hottest summer ever with temperatures above 110 for 66 days. The normal number of days above 110 for Phoenix is 21. You also fail to note the numerous press reports that document that 1 million people have already moved inland from coastal areas because of the increasing hurricane damage. No doubt that the current catastrophic hurricane will cause more people to move farther inland. You also fail to note that last year, the U.S. suffered more than 20 catastrophic storms that did more than $1 billion in damage each. That's a dramatic increase in catastrophic storm damage. Insurance companies are pulling out of states with large amounts of both storm and wildfire damage because the losses are too large for them to financially cope with.
Your own words clearly show that you're not a climate scientist. You need to leave this to the climate scientists.

[jimfields33]

80. Not normal? We had 4 hurricanes in 2004 one right after the other.

One even came left and came back again.

https://www.noaa.gov/stories/4-hurricanes-in-6-weeks-it-happened-to-one-state-in-2004

The 1947 season was the year with the most tropical cyclones affecting Florida, with a total of six systems.

[GoreWon2000]

99. Please don't think you know more about this than the climate scientists

The ever warming oceans which is clearly being caused by the continued burning of fossil fuels is supercharging these hurricanes. These hurricanes are now bigger and stronger and intensifying in a much shorter amount of time making it much more difficult for forecasters to correctly predict their strength and behavior which is making it much harder to get people in the affected areas out of harms way in time. My engineer/pilot father actually flew hurricane reconnaissance when he was in the Air Force. This latest hurricane to hit Florida has all of the hallmarks of being stronger and larger thanks to human caused climate change. Please stop downplaying this ever increasing threat.

[bronxiteforever]

85. Ocean temperatures don't lie.

Ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have increased over time. Studies show that average sea surface temperatures have risen, particularly in the last few decades. This warming trend is linked to climate change and can have significant impacts on marine ecosystems, weather patterns, and hurricane intensity in the region.

Several studies and reports document the rise in ocean temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico:

NOAA Reports: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regularly publishes data on sea surface temperatures, indicating trends over time in the Gulf.
IPCC Assessments: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change provides comprehensive assessments of climate change impacts, including ocean temperature increases.
Research Articles: Peer-reviewed studies published in journals like Geophysical Research Letters and Journal of Climate have analyzed long-term temperature records and their implications for marine ecosystems and weather.
University Studies: Institutions like the University of Miami and Louisiana State University conduct research focusing on climate impacts in the Gulf, often using satellite data to track temperature changes.
These sources collectively illustrate the warming trend and its potential effects.

[bronxiteforever]

86. Plus can't forget the artic seas

Ocean temperatures in the Arctic have risen significantly over the past few decades. This warming is primarily attributed to climate change, which has led to increased greenhouse gas emissions and changes in ocean currents. The rise in temperatures contributes to the melting of sea ice and affects marine ecosystems and weather patterns globally.

Several studies have documented the rise in Arctic ocean temperatures. Here are a few notable ones:

NOAA Reports: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration regularly publishes assessments that detail temperature changes in the Arctic and their impacts on climate.
IPCC Reports: The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change includes extensive analyses of ocean temperature trends in its assessment reports, highlighting the Arctic's rapid warming.
Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP): AMAP conducts studies on Arctic environmental changes, including ocean temperature data, emphasizing the effects on ecosystems and climate.
Research Articles: Numerous peer-reviewed studies in journals like "Nature" and "Geophysical Research Letters" have measured ocean temperature changes using satellite data and in-situ observations.
These studies collectively demonstrate the significant warming trend in Arctic waters and its implications for climate and biodiversity.

[relayerbob]

38. Add sea levels increasing and Florida is going to be a much smaller state

[diane in sf]

40. The part of the Bay Area where I live is most vulnerable to sea level rise. The other disasters would have

more indirect effects on this immediate vicinity. Food shortages and other issues would be felt across the region.

[Marcuse]

47. .

[notroot]

50. When it comes to the Law VS Nature...

Nature always wins.

[GoreWon2000]

53. The tragedy of bushthief Florida 2000 lives on with climate change

Women's reproductive rights and climate change along with democracy itself are the biggest casualties of bushthief's theft of the 2000 Presidential election in Florida. I now think almost daily about the several hundred thousand legal votes that sit uncounted in the Florida archives thanks to bushthief and his assault on American democracy in Florida in 2000.

[roamer65]

55. This☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️☝️

[roamer65]

57. Earth 2070.

3 billion will need to move.

https://www.intellinews.com/three-billion-people-will-live-in-uninhabitable-zones-by-2070-317135/

[brush]

68. You're probably right about the low-lying, coastal cities. Aren't street already flooding at high tide in some of them?

Last edited Mon Sep 30, 2024, 03:12 AM - Edit history (1)

And that's going to continue amd get worse as sea levels rise, and if streets are flooding now, what about homes and businesses?

It's an untenable situation. Insurance companies are are raising rates or abandoning the state all together.

[canetoad]

72. Not just Florida

Many places in the world are much worse off than Florida.

This is a global problem, not just an American one.

[jimfields33]

76. Odd that Florida is only state mentioned. It's really a mystery since out of states affected during this hurricane,

it was least affected. The entire east coast is prone to hurricanes. Many forget sandy just awhile ago.

[lindysalsagal]

93. The insurance companies are leaving first. That should be a knock-out blow to the economy.

I'd expect the market to implode any time. It should become an rv park: Bring your rv down off season and then get it back out before fall. Same with the boats. I wouldn't buy anything permanent except maybe an empty plot of land for the rv. It's not insurable anymore.

[ananda]

96. No might be about it. Florida IS fucked.

It's going underwater sooner rather than later.

[Emile]

97. The whole state is nothing more than a sandbar

jutting out into the ocean.

[Old Crank]

103. Florida is in trouble

Yet more are moving in. The head up their a!! government will refuse to stop development or raise taxes to help with mitigation of repair.

[Torchlight]

105. I think it's important to differentiate

between organizations that are planning or have in place, plans to reduce and mitigate the crises, and those organizations (et. al.) that simply look to survive the crises with as many conveniences as possible and at the expense of, well, anyone else.

Reduction, mitigation, and education about the concern is an admirable goal.

[Raftergirl]

106. I'm in the Cap District of NYS. We don't get many extreme weather events at all. I will inherit my mom's condo in

southeast Florida (5 miles inland) and I’ll be putting it on the market the minute it’s mine. I can barely stand to go visit her, but she is 95 so I don’t have much of a choice. We’ve had winter homes in Florida since before I was even born and I’m 67. Always loved going down during the winter but now I’d rather stay here or go to an island instead for a few weeks/month.

I live in a suburb of Albany and my homeowners is dirt cheap ($144/ month) as is my car insurance ($185/month for 2 cars.) We did invest in a whole house generator because my town is very treed and one is always falling on the wires and I don’t like to be out of power for even a minute.

We have great schools, too, and my area (and my town) is solid blue. Don’t have to worry about any nut jobs getting in office, or on our school boards.

Property taxes are high but we get great services for the money. So no complaints from me. And no state income tax on my husband’s 6 figure pension.

I invested in a super warm winter coat and warm boots (expensive but worth it) so I don’t even mind winter anymore.

[enid602]

107. Sad

It’s so sad and pathetic that so many people in our country live in places whose only chance at progress and affluence hinges on the misfortune of others.

[electric_blue68]

117. As far as NYC is concerned...we'll probably get more storms. More humidity in general- I hope not. As far as sea levels.

Parts of each Burrough has at least 80 ft to 125 ft elevations. Some areas of waaaay upper Manhattan, and the The Bronx run 150ft - 200+ft.
I know bc I've lived in, or traveled to these areas.

More like in some areas a fair amount underwater, and various sized "islands".

The subway system will probably be devastated.
Shorter bus lines and ferry boats, my friends. 👍

[It is terribly serious, though. Sigh.]
They talk about building Seagates for here.

[roamer65]

122. Take a look.

https://projects.propublica.org/climate-migration/