DU Experts- Unskew these disturbing Quinnipiac and Emerson Polls please

[kansasobama]

Last time, I posted some polls as breaking news. Since it was negative, people yelled and DU moderator blocked it. So this time, I am asking DU experts to unskew reliable polls from Quinnipiac and Emerson for us. It is a little disturbing but I will hope experts can explain.

How true are these samples? It looks like we are not doing well in AZ, NC, and GA. Deeply disturbed to see NC and GA think Trump will save democracy than Harris. I am having a bad day after these polls.

https://poll.qu.edu/

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/september-2024-arizona-and-north-carolina-polls-harris-and-trump-neck-and-neck-in-key-swing-states/

Hurricane or not, it looks like Southeastern states will vote for Trump. I guess they like to vote against their interest.

[doc03]

1. Just a few days ago Michael Steele said Harris will win NC, GA and Fl.

[AZSkiffyGeek]

2. But that's good news

We need FUD about how Harris isn't campaigning anymore, and Gallego doesn't want to share the stage with her because she's a drag on the ticket, and how all the polls need to be unskewed like the Republicans do.

[kansasobama]

4. What is FUD

Pardon my ignorance

[BannonsLiver]

26. Fear.Uncertainty. Doubt.

Aka what you and others are pushing in the doom threads that are very prevalent today.

[emulatorloo]

48. Here's a Wikipedia article about Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). A propaganda tactic

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fear,_uncertainty,_and_doubt

Fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD) is a manipulative propaganda tactic used in sales, marketing, public relations, politics, polling, and cults. FUD is generally a strategy to influence perception by disseminating negative and dubious or false information, and is a manifestation of the appeal to fear.

More at link

[kansasobama]

3. I don't see data supporting that

I want to be realistic rather than in fantasy land. Is it better to focus on the blue wall states and Nevada? Time is short.

[obamanut2012]

7. You keep saying that -- it is not realistic to pull money and time from other states

As you and others keep being told.

But go right ahead and express your concern.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

8. Yep - I agree. I want to see all info. People can post that it is a biased poll.

[Keepthesoulalive]

9. There is being realistic

There is also dragging the internet for every negative story and poll one can find. Try a little hope and joy ,it’s good for your health.

[kansasobama]

12. Worried only because these are reliable companies

You are correct about this screwing my health

[Keepthesoulalive]

27. This does not help

We have a lying scumbag trying to destroy our country. We have the best run campaign since Obama 1. Try having faith in the democrats the donations are pouring in and all over the country people are voting and working to make this happen . Try positive vibes for a change being a Debbie downer on DU just depresses the faithful.

[kansasobama]

31. Not meant to do that

Just wanted to know if the mix of GOP, Dem in the poll is valid or not. Just analyzing. Sorry about that. There is still a month left. Probably a little Proj 2025 education will help our folks, I think. Couple of points are all that is needed to shave off.

[Keepthesoulalive]

39. Putting this on DU

Does not help the campaign perhaps you can talk to Jamie and help him with his game.

[beaglelover]

11. She's not going to win in FL. That's crazy talk.

[obamanut2012]

40. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell can, Whitney Fox can, the Amendments can

[beaglelover]

46. We're talking about what Michael Steele said about Kamala winning FL.

[Polybius]

18. Anybody can say anything n/t

[obamanut2012]

5. hello there

[WarGamer]

6. they're all 3 red leaning states... 2020 was unusual.

We don't really need them... with NE2 and the Blue Wall intact, we win.

But if we lose GA, AZ and NC...

We can't afford to lose much of anything else.

GA, NC and AZ puts Trump at 262.

NV would get him to 268, not enough.

VA, PA, MI, WI... Trump needs one of the four to win. Period.

[kansasobama]

10. Agree but that means

We are on pins and needles and going to die many deaths before the election.

[WarGamer]

14. Yes it's going to be close. Don't believe the "landslide folks"

Both sides have enough VOTERS to win... depends on which side GOTV better.

[kansasobama]

16. Is NC really 35-28-28?

35 Rep, 28 Dems, 28 Ind? If yes, I guess it is no surprise.

[Polybius]

20. 268 could be enough

Lately, there have been more Faithless Electors than in the past.

[Lovie777]

13. Democratic Party's internals probably show a much better outcome.........

nevertheless, vote blue across board.

[WarGamer]

17. Slotkin claims internal D polling has Harris down in MI.

https://www.axios.com/2024/09/29/michigan-senate-race-slotkin-harris

Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-Mich.) warned donors last week that internal polling for her Senate campaign shows Vice President Kamala Harris is "underwater" in Michigan, according to a video clip obtained by Axios.

[BannonsLiver]

22. I wouldn't get your hopes up.

[Kingofalldems]

50. For the win!

[obamanut2012]

41. Y'all are misquoting her fundraiser line

They all do it, and that is not what she actually said.

[WarGamer]

42. That's her actual quote

"We have her underwater in our polling," Slotkin added.

Now if you're arguing that she didn't really mean it... said it as a fund raising ploy, maybe.

[kansasobama]

21. I vote always blue

In my gerrymandered GOP district which actually should have been blue. GOP is crazy here.

[Self Esteem]

37. They don't.

I sit in on a call every Monday with my state party and the Harris campaign (as well as other state parties and congressional campaigns) and they routinely remind us that this election is very close.

At the moment, she's the underdog in Georgia and Arizona. There is a reason most her campaign stops have been in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. She has almost as many campaign stops in PA as Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina combined. That should tell you everything you need to know about the map.

They see a more likely path to victory in PA at the moment than Georgia. And I don't think that will change much.

Internally, her polling is worse than Biden's in these states four years ago.

This race is close. Very close. People need to come around to that because it's not likely to change between now and November.

There is a reason Harris keeps pushing Trump to debate and it's because she knows they move the needle, even if marginally.

Four years ago? Biden's team would have been fine with no other debates after the first one. But they held a decent lead and didn't need another debate to either solidify the lead or grow it.

With how tight it is, Harris absolutely would love another opportunity to increase her chances, even if only marginally.

[Think. Again.]

15. I just hope this hasn't gotten you so upset...

...that you mess up the addresses on the Harris/Walz postcards and you have to do them over.

[kansasobama]

19. Not that upset

I am always 100% Dem.

[W_HAMILTON]

30. What are you doing to GOTV since you are so worried?

[Prairie Gates]

25. LOL

Burn.

[Prairie Gates]

23. ...

[BannonsLiver]

24. Another doom thread

DU is unhinged today.

[Self Esteem]

32. Nothing to unskew. Harris knows she's underwater in these states.

It's why most her focus has been in the rustbelt. She has barely campaigned in Georgia and Arizona. Even her border stop last week was more a play to national audiences and not the Arizona community.

Of the three, they're most bullish on North Carolina.

But people need to recalibrate their expectations. So many folks here think this is going to be a 2008-like landslide. It absolutely is not going to be like that.

The Harris team fully expects at this moment that the race will be closer than it was four years ago and their most realistic path remains keeping the blue wall states and Nevada.

[kansasobama]

35. Thank you

I just wanted to be sure that is what it is, accept it, and move on. Your post sort of helped.

[MontanaFarmer]

33. The best path remains through

The blue wall. Her best hedge against losing a blue wall state is Nevada plus NC. Then GA. Then AZ. She could indeed win Florida if the race moves another couple points our direction, abortion on the ballot, weed on the ballot, but if she does it's still probably the 8th swing state she's won at that point and it's a Wipeout. Don't worry about the slotkin thing, she's done the negative news fundraising for a long time. PA is coming our way. Good poll there today with VPH at 50%. No PA, no election for Trump. If our voters turn out, she'll win. Only way imo trump wins is low city and suburban turnout.

[kansasobama]

36. Thanks-Your post resolves my question

Thanks

[ColinC]

34. Just throw em in the average

[lindysalsagal]

38. Harris doesn't need those 3: https://www.270towin.com/

[VMA131Marine]

43. If you look at all the polling

(See: https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/)

Emerson’s and Quinnipiac’s results have consistently favoured Trump. I’m not saying they are doing it deliberately, but their samples across multiple states typically skew towards Trump by 2 or 3 points from the polling averages.

Meanwhile, Harris position in National polling has continued to improve to +3.8%, even with some obvious RW polls factored in.

The 270-to-win averages for the swing states are as follows
AZ - Trump +1.7
GA - Trump +0.5
MI - Harris +1.8
NC - Trump +0.3
NV - Harris +2.2
PA - Harris +0.4
WI - Harris +1.9

The AZ number is being strongly affected by a Suffolk poll that had Harris 42 Trump 48 and is a clear outlier. Trump is not up by nearly 2 points in AZ.
Further, most of these margins are much smaller than the MOE. While there’s no such thing as a statistical tie, it’s fair to say that polling is too imprecise to measure margins which are apparently this small. And this all assumes that these companies are getting truly representative samples.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

44. Emerson is slightly Rep. and Quinnipiac used to be Rep but not lately

I know a lot of people are going to be pissed at me, but Harris has been falling in most of the polls lately. She is doing better in the Midwest states though than the sunbelt. Emerson it has a a mean-reverted bias of D +0.3, a regular bias of D +0.3 (a slight bias towards Dems when it is compared to ACTUAL past results). It does have a house effect of R +1.5 - (comparing that poll to other more current polls) which is sort of bad but they are probably trying to balance out the Dem bias. The polls have been really screwy this election and one of the polls that has a baaad Republican house effect is the New York Times poll - about as bad as Trafalger. We will see if they are right or not after the election results from this election. Fox polls have not been too bad. The NY Times is either going to look like a total joke or will be thought to be very impressive.

I will post ALL of the latest polls for Arizona, NC, and Georgia below this.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

45. Poll numbers in Georgia, Arizona, and NC with notations for Rep/Dem polls

I think the best way to judge is to look at all the recent polls and note which polls are biased.

North Carolina

+2 Tr - 9/25-9/29 - Quinnipiac - (LV) - Rep
+1 Tr - 9/27-9/28- Emerson (LV)
+2 Tr- 9/23-9/26-ECU (East Carolina U)LV
+3 Trump 9/20-9/24 Fox/Beacon (LV)
+4 Harris 9/20-9/25 AtlasIntel (LV)
Tied - 9/20-9/25 CNN/SSRS (LV)
+2Harr-9/19-9/25-MornCon/BloomLV - Dem
Tied - 9/19-9/22 - Rasmussen (LV) -Rep
Tied - 9/16-9/22 Susquehanna (LV)
Tied - 9/16-9/19 Muhlenberg (LV) - Rep
Tied - 9/18-9/20- RMG Res./Nap. (RV) -Dem
Tied-9/16-9/19-Redfield & Wilton (LV) -Dem


Georgia

+6 Tr - 9/25-9/29 - Quinnipiac - (LV) - Rep
Tied 9/20-9/25 AtlasIntel (LV)
+1 Trump 9/20-9/25 AtlasIntel (LV)
Tied-9/19-9/25-MornCon/Bloom (LV)-Dem
+2 Tr - 9/20-9/24 - CBS/YouGov (LV)
+2 Harris 9/20-9/24-Fox/BeaconShaw LV
+1 Tr - 9/19-9/24 Marist (LV)
+2 Harris- 9/20-9/23 - Bullfinch Grp (RV)


Arizona

+3 Tr - 9/27-9/28- Emerson (LV)
+1 Tr -9/20-9/25 AtlasIntel (LV)
+3 Harris-9/20-9/25 Morn Cons (LV) -Dem
+6 Tr 9/11-9/25- USA Today/Suffolk (LV)
+2 Tr 9/11-9/25 - Fox News/Beacon (LV)
+3 Tr 9/19-9/22-Pulse/Rasmussn (LV) -Rep
+5 Trump - 9/17-9/21 - NYT/Siena (LV)
Tied - 9/16-9/19-Redfield & Wilton(LV) Dem

[kansasobama]

47. No, I won't be pissed

I have tried hard to be as balanced as possible. Even to the point, where I will look at GOP leaning reputed polls. Yes, FOX News Polls are pretty good. It is not run by the crazies at FOX News.

[Kingofalldems]

49. Bad things about Democrats.

[kimbutgar]

51. I don't know who they'd re polling it nobody I know has been polled

I find these polls dubious at best.