General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe polls are saying this election is tied in the presidential race. If they are correct, then there is something very
wrong and demented in this country.
If there are that many people who effectively have no problem voting for someone who tried to interfere and illegally overturn an election, it's disgraceful.
It means 50% of the voting population do not believe in democracy, and that is very f**ked up.
Even if we are fortunate to win, with this supreme court I think there is a good chance that they will say that what trump did was an "official act", and immune from prosecution.
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dalton99a
(94,109 posts)
LakeVermilion
(1,584 posts)These people are not Republicans. They could care less about policy. The right-wing media have cultivated them for more than 40 years.
Trump is the benefactor. No one opposes Trump because they hope to be the successor. This voting block is what they are after. For sure, they don't want this block to rise against them.
JHB
(38,210 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 3, 2024, 10:20 PM - Edit history (1)
...and the ones who did were steadily driven out of office or into retirement for insufficient "Conservative Correctness".
It wasn't just RW media cultivating these people, it was the Republican Party itself. They were their margin of victory. Now all the conservative activists and figures who had to become "former Republicans" pretend this is a new thing, and not the same as they did to the Rockefeller Republicans. They turned up the foam machine and surfed to victory. Now the beast they made rounded on them and bit them. That beast is what defines Republicans now, and it has been since Newt Gingrich won elections by promising the people of Cobb County, GA that he'd protect them from the slavering hordes of the People's Republic of Escape From New York.
There is no division between Trump's cult and the Republican Party because no Republican fought to stop it. To do so would be to bite their own legs off, and they wanted to win races.
mountain grammy
(29,034 posts)The compassion ends at the label
FakeNoose
(41,622 posts)They are noisy and they're a pain in the ass. But their numbers have dwindled. Meanwhile a lot of Repukes are refusing to vote for Chump. The independents are sticking with us this year, they don't want Chump back in the White House either. We're not going back!
The people who make these polls aren't counting all the Repukes who won't vote for Chump. That's why they are wrong. Also most of the new first-time voters are voting D this year, and they aren't being counted either.
We've got this! We need to ignore the polls and GET OUT THE VOTE!
agingdem
(8,843 posts)this is like the media hyping Fox's "red wave" bullshit in 2022...
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)But the voting was spread out. The red areas they won got redder. Thankfully they were very concentrated votes.
agingdem
(8,843 posts)and all of Trump's handpicked loons lost...except Vance..that wasn't a wave...it was a trickle...and in the ensuing years the House has done nothing except hold bogus revenge and retribution hearings and made multiple attempts to shut down the government...and failed...
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)dpibel
(3,941 posts)That's pretty silly.
The Republican total vote tally was about in line, percentage-wise, with the number of seats they won.
Your defense is noted. Doesn't change the fact that it's wrong.
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)You’ll be stunned.
dpibel
(3,941 posts)Not only was I not stunned, I offered you some helpful analysis. You should ponder what I wrote.
Abstractartist
(446 posts)Yeah, I’m also remembering Dick Morris and his absolute polls that Romney was the “Dewey Defeats Truman” on Obama… how did that turn out. I only follow who gets 270 or better
LiberalFighter
(53,544 posts)And there is the amount of hype to push questionable polls.
CincyDem
(7,392 posts)They only know what Fox News teaches. And all they teach is that dems are against democracy. And the cult cheers.
poozwah
(413 posts)an ignorant electorate is an easily fooled electorate. many people today think that honda is where you get civics.
DoBW
(3,223 posts)
appalachiablue
(44,022 posts) 
Stargazer99
(3,517 posts)was that?
Jersey Devil
(10,833 posts)No one mentions it, but it's there, quietly lurking in the background and I believe it has a lot to do with why some people would prefer a lawless moron to lead them rather than any woman.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)sanevoiceus
(17 posts)Misogyny spans across any race and religion. That explains why so many misguided Muslim and POC folks support TFG despite his demonstrated hatred to these groups.
OldBaldy1701E
(11,137 posts)However, they are also SOP and are very profitable to the right people, so they will not be leaving our shores anytime soon. 
Trueblue Texan
(4,461 posts)Battleground state polls don't reflect an accurate majority of Americans, but those are the ones that may well determine the next president. I think we need to get rid of the Electoral College.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)determined by the battleground atates.
The point is that there are a significant number of people in the country who are still supporting a demented, sick person who openly is calling for an autocracy, and that should be extremely alarming.
What is MOE.
kelly1mm
(5,756 posts)
Rocknation
(45,006 posts)Last edited Wed Oct 16, 2024, 05:38 PM - Edit history (3)
Don't take polls seriously if their MOE is either nonexistent or more, especially if they're based on fewer than 750 respondents.
Rocknation
kelly1mm
(5,756 posts)
chwaliszewski
(1,528 posts)
Meadowoak
(6,606 posts)
GreenWave
(12,640 posts)They pretend the latest 5 pt national lead is within MOE (margin of error)! BS and more BS. Everyday somebody feels obligated to bring the latest help Trump at any cost poll bullshit to this forum.
Cheezoholic
(3,719 posts)And the range "the polling company says their numbers may be off". Just like the snack makers say I should pay the same amount for half as much. I get it . 
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)Cheezoholic
(3,719 posts)Which I do not believe and I live around more racist idiots than most around here. It's absolutely in the interest of these company's to predict a 50/50 race because if they would be more truthful, if it were say a 58/42 race, who the hell is gonna pay to publish/look/read/believe their tea leaves for another 30 days. Just the same as it is with M$M. Who the hell will watch all the Max Headroom's alarming us about new polls and all the doom and gloom for you and your guy back and forth and so on and so on prior/during/after elections. Plus, a lot of these polling companies are also owned by M$M conglomerates so they can feed their own caged beast. Polling used to be a trick to sell corner newspapers when horses were still shitting in the streets (see where I'm going 
). I don't trust any of it, 0, nada.
Now to what you fear these polls are telling us. Well ....
1st is there a racist issue in this country? Always has been don't need a poll to tell me that.
2nd is there and education issue in this country? Always has been don't need a poll to tell me that.
And finally 3rd...
Are 50% of eligible voters racist idiots? Nope cause that's about all that usually show up. So the MOEst accurate MOE is that of the American people and it's 25-50% lol!
Regardless, fears that half this country are racist MAGAts are just unfounded, especially if you base it on something as flawed as polling. I have much more faith in my fellow Americans if they live in a trailer or not
IMO of course
Johnny2X2X
(24,203 posts)The polls say that it's 48.6 to 45.8 in the average with Harris ahead.
And it's not 50% of the population, rather a little less than 46% of the voting population. It works out to about 20-21% of the US population that votes for Trump, never forget that. The rest either vote for Biden/Harris, aren't eligible to vote, or don't vote.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)population has no problem supporting someone who wants an autocracy.
We have never been so close to losing our democracy because of that, and selected battleground states that will determine the election.
Response to JohnSJ (Reply #10)
Chin music This message was self-deleted by its author.
harumph
(3,276 posts)I may steal that phrasing.
Johnny2X2X
(24,203 posts)It's not within the MOE.
PortTack
(35,820 posts)Every election year this happens…ppl talk about how close the race is later to find out it isn’t.
Everyone’s entitled to their opinion, including talking about the polls. I guess I’m always befuddled when polls and poll aggregators known for rt leaning owners are given the time of day!
kelly1mm
(5,756 posts)'It works out to about 22-23% of the US population that votes for Harris, never forget that. The rest either vote for Trump/Vance, aren't eligible to vote, or don't vote.'
Not a ringing endorsement of civic engagement in either case ......
Charging Triceratops
(441 posts)Harris will win by 8-10 million votes. And still might "lose"!
And THAT is preposterous.
Bev54
(13,431 posts)dchill
(42,660 posts)Which is why we still have the Electoral College.
Bev54
(13,431 posts)dchill
(42,660 posts)
DownriverDem
(7,014 posts)we hear the get rid of the EC. This should be taken up after the election.
kelly1mm
(5,756 posts)2nd is the proposed national popular vote compact. That is a compact between the states to allocate the state's EC votes to the winner on the national popular vote. Once the compact has 271 EC votes among its member states the EC becomes irrelevant.
There is no legislative or Exectutive Order action that can 'fix' the EC.
LiberalFighter
(53,544 posts)Each state will be different.
Covid deaths likely impacted Republicans more.
Military vets and current. Voting results likely impacting in states with major bases.
Women reproductive rights
Voters being reminded about January 6
The eight to ten million is major but doesn't have the impact state by state.
In the case of Wisconsin, Biden won by 20,682 votes. How many dead Republicans from Covid can't vote for Trump? How many military vets and those in service will not vote for Trump again because how he thought of the military? How women voted for Trump but won't because of abortion rights? And now January 6 back in the news.
Maybe if it was only one them the impact would be as big but the above and more could change that 20,682 in Wisconsin to 40,000, 50,000, or more.
It might cause Republican leaning states to change. Maybe it will be more localized elections.
wryter2000
(47,940 posts)It’s horse race reporting
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)You can question the accuracy of polling but that doesn't mean all the polling is purposely manufacturing numbers to push a narrative.
There are plenty of independent pollsters, mostly tied to colleges/university (like Quinnipiac or Emerson) or non-profits (Pew) that have nothing to gain from the horse-race narrative (and would explain many of their 2020 polls showing Biden ahead by a decent margin).
This election will be close. It will likely be decided by less than 100,000 votes across three states.
I'm not sure why so many people refuse to accept this. It seems like so many here believe November is going to be just like 2008 and there are no signs of that happening.
I'm afraid this place is going to be a chaotic mess on election night when the race is too close to call throughout - maybe even into multiple days like in 2020. Especially if Harris loses states Biden won in 2020 (whether Georgia or Arizona).
I think everyone should prepare for a very close election. If it breaks for Harris and she wins by a decent amount, awesome! But prepare for this to be a coin-flip because there's a very good chance that it is.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)So it is highly likely, especially at this point in the race, that they are manufacturing or tweaking data to make it look closer than it really is, just exactly as they did in 2022, when the red tsunami narrative pushed by the media was supported by polling data. Then, low and behold, two weeks out, there was the inevitable "tightening" of the race, and the "red tsunami" turned into a "red wave," then the polls showed what was, in some races, drastic narrowing or expanding, depending on what they were actually getting in data. And there was never a red wave. But there was a lot of political advertising sold based on the polls and the media outlets that contracted with them got what they wanted.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Many polls, like Quinnipiac, are funded via research grants tied to specific education departments. Others, like Pew, are primarily funded by the left-leaning Pew Charitable Trusts.
And your last point is just as wrong as your first.
The polling did not support the idea of a red tsunami in 2022. This is a made up narrative pushed by Democrats who have ignored polling all campaign long because they struggle to cope with the fact that this is a very tight race.
Even media-sponsored polls, like the NYT, had Democrats winning key senate seats in 2022.
Your whole point is shockingly incorrect.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)Those grants wouldn't do squat to cover the polling expenses. They make money every time they are cited by a media source. It's a contract business.
The rest of your post is just as much bullshit. The NYT had Mehmet Oz winning Pennsylvania right up to the day he lost by 5. Virtually every poll went through the inevitable "tightening" shift two weeks out, because they were predicting such wrong results prior to that. Every journalist citing "red tsunami" and "red wave" cited polling data to support it. It was not even a journalist, it was Michael Moore, who said the polls were bullshit and the Republicans not only would not reclaim the senate, (538 gave the GOP 60% odds of winning it) but their gains in the house would be minimal. Even MSNBC and Steve Kornacki had to come up with a whole list of new house seats that were not on their "too close to call" list, including Lauren Boebert, who won her district by less than 600 votes, but was not on the danger list of "close" races for the GOP.
The polls, in terms of the accuracy they once had, are staggeringly inaccurate and have been at least since 2016. That's why you see these wide MOE's. NBC used to brag their national poll had a 1% MOE. Now it's 5, which is a ten point swing. That's worthless in an election.
A landslide now is what Fetterman did in PA in 2022, and Shapiro, which, by the way, the polls got wrong in both cases. So if we're looking at Harris up by 6 across the board in nine or ten national polls, that's huge. And leading, even by one point, in all seven battlegrounds, which is being shown by multiple polls, is also big. Most Trump supporters are still behind him because they know nothing. That, too, is a media problem.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)None of what you said is true. Pollsters like Pew are not making a significant amount of money from their poll being cited in the press. That's just hooey lmao and they're not associated with any media outlet. They're entirely independent.
They also run at a budget deficit because they're not raking in the cash from the media like you so falsely claim.
Finally, again, you're wrong. You just make things up. Every interaction I've had with you, you've just brazenly lied about numbers.
Like when you claimed every poll in 2018 had Tester losing in Montana, despite me showing you proof of the exact opposite.
And here you're doing it again.
No, the NYT did not have Oz winning up until the end. This is a lie. I literally linked you to their final senate race polls in my last message. But since you seem to want to ignore that too, let me do it again.
And here is a screenshot:
What does that say? Their final poll had Fetterman beating Oz 49-44 - or by five points.
Guess how much Fetterman won by?
You got it!
If you're not going to be honest, then there is no point in me furthering the conversation.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)Go ahead, wring your hands, keep yourself up at night and worry over it, though. I don't want to deny you that pleasure. Fold up, give in and let them run your thinking.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Linking to the actual poll is not proof. But you saying, without literally any evidence to back up your claim, that the NYT's poll had Oz winning up until the end, is somehow proof?
lmao what an insane argument.
So, show me proof of your claim that the NYT poll had Oz winning at the end.
C'mon. Can't be that hard with how emphatic you made the claim.
But you and I know you won't prove dick because you're making it all up.
But here's a DU post about the poll from October, 2022 that shows the results:
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217303687
This isn't put up after the fact. You can clearly see this post is from October, 2022 and maybe you don't know this but October comes before November.
So, explain that away, okay?
BumRushDaShow
(169,708 posts)Cherry-picking one poll with an assumption that this is what was used for "the narrative" is nonsense. Gallup used to be the "gold standard" and flubbed in 2012 predicting a RMoney win.
I don't know how many times I have posted over and over, but just forget the damn polls.
Here from the NYT, since they are the subject -
By Jim Rutenberg, Ken Bensinger and Steve Eder
Dec. 31, 2022
Senator Patty Murray, a Democrat, had consistently won re-election by healthy margins in her three decades representing Washington State. This year seemed no different: By midsummer, polls showed her cruising to victory over a Republican newcomer, Tiffany Smiley, by as much as 20 percentage points.
So when a survey in late September by the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group showed Ms. Murray clinging to a lead of just two points, it seemed like an aberration. But in October, two more Republican-leaning polls put Ms. Murray barely ahead, and a third said the race was a dead heat.
(snip)
Ms. Murray’s own polling showed her with a comfortable lead, and a nonprofit regional news site, using an established local pollster, had her up by 13. Unwilling to take chances, however, she went on the defensive, scuttling her practice of lavishing some of her war chest — she amassed $20 million — on more vulnerable Democratic candidates elsewhere. Instead, she reaped financial help from the party’s national Senate committee and supportive super PACs — resources that would, as a result, be unavailable to other Democrats.
A similar sequence of events played out in battlegrounds nationwide. Surveys showing strength for Republicans, often from the same partisan pollsters, set Democratic klaxons blaring in Pennsylvania, New Hampshire and Colorado. Coupled with the political factors already favoring Republicans — including inflation and President Biden’s unpopularity — the skewed polls helped feed what quickly became an inescapable political narrative: A Republican wave election was about to hit the country with hurricane force. Democrats in each of those states went on to win their Senate races. Ms. Murray clobbered Ms. Smiley by nearly 15 points.
(snip)
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/12/31/us/politics/polling-election-2022-red-wave.html
This is what aggregator 538 had for that race here in PA in 2022 -
The ACTUALS were Fetterman WINNING by 4% -
Additional analysis of aggregator performance compared to "actuals" -
In summary, the pundits and general media outlets prognosticate based on multiple "polls", usually from poll aggregators like 538 or RCP, etc., despite some "member polls" being closer to the end result or not.
It's just like what one might see when weather outlets talk about hurricanes and "the spaghetti models", where multiple system tracking models are run and aggregated to show the "trends", where the graphical "depiction" resembles strands of spaghetti (represented potential tropical cyclone tracks).
But few go "all-in" with a single pollster (or weather model) to make a determination of where they think things are (with exceptions by candidates themselves who may do their own internal polling).
Polls don't vote, PEOPLE vote.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)The poster openly lied. They claimed the NYT polls showed Oz winning straight up to election day. That is a lie. It is not true. Everything you said is irrelevant to that point and wasted energy on trying to convince me of something I never claimed.
Ultimately, the average of polls showed the race tight - as they did in Arizona, Georgia and Nevada. Guess what? The race was tight!
From the beginning of October, to election day, ten polls had Fetterman ahead. Based on that fact alone, one could easily assume he had a shot at winning and therefore, the election was seen as a toss-up.
Conversely, I can take from polling right now that this race is extremely close. The poster doesn't believe this. That's their prerogative. I disagree. I think Harris' campaign disagrees. I think recent history disagrees. But they're under the belief that Harris will win Pennsylvania by 15 points, as they've claimed she will do about as well as Shapiro did in 2022. I do not agree at all.
BumRushDaShow
(169,708 posts)There is an obsession over these "polls" that have been shown, notably since 2020, to under-sample Democrats and thus when the actuals come in, it ends up with "Democrats 'over-performed'", election after election after election.
In other words, they have zero clue who the "likely voters" will be.
What needs to "stop" is the obnoxious "poll humping" that goes on here and instead, people need to make sure that their families, friends, coworkers, and neighbors go out and vote.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Maybe you were confused and replied to the wrong person. I've done that. It can be embarrassing. It's okay, though. I forgive you.
The post you initially replied to had nothing to do with polling averages or any of that. It was that the person I replied to made up something, I called them out and they still refused to accept that I was right. That's it. Not sure what your post had to do with any of what I was talking about. So, yeah, irrelevant. But again, it happens. No worries. 
BumRushDaShow
(169,708 posts)and I am correcting the "poll mania record". The media "narratives" don't focus on one poll but aggregators.
Suggestion - don't "poll hump". It's unbecoming.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)The poster claimed that every NYT poll showed Oz winning up until election day. This was a lie. This isn't the first time they've pulled this stunt, either. They claimed a few days ago that every poll in 2018 showed Tester losing. I showed 'em that was wrong too and instead of admitting they were wrong, they did a Trump and double-downed and said the information I was showing was manipulated or forged - just as they did here with the NYT Oz poll and why I linked to a DU post from October 2022 reporting the same thing, since that couldn't be changed or manipulated.
I am well aware how polling works but it does no one any good to make up numbers.
BumRushDaShow
(169,708 posts)And the "misinformation" has been yours.
You took what that poster wrote, and immediately assumed they were talking about "every poll out of that one polling outfit" (NYT/Sienna), instead of considering that they were talking about a conglomeration of "polls" in general, including that one.
This is what was written -
And the CONTEXT of that was earlier in the subthread as a plural including the reply title - Every single poll survives financially by providing its data to media outlets.
The OP itself is talking about "polls" (general), NOT the one "NYT" "poll" and its series of iterations.
Regardless of what ONE poll said about Fetterman, the AGGREGATE that was reported by 538 had him losing and had people here in PA hand-wringing, and even more so after Fetterman's debate as he struggled with recovering from a stroke. Yet he won.
Nate Silver was sent packing from 538 after the 2022 election FAIL.
THAT is the point that people need to hear. Few if any rely on ONE "polling outfit" and the analysts, columnists, and pundits instead take what is coming out of what have more and more become flawed "aggregates", and will generate some ridiculous "narrative" that often turns out to be a false one.
gay texan
(3,216 posts)I remember this time well. They kept saying OZ was ahead. Pundits went on and on about it.
Then the election happened and they were quite wrong.
If anything the media narrative made us GOTV
BumRushDaShow
(169,708 posts)By Amy Eskind Published on November 10, 2022 02:09PM EST
The "red wave" that pollsters were predicting before the midterms turned out to be more of a red trickle. Expectations that Democrats could lose as many as 35 seats in the House of Representatives have been disproven, and if Republicans do clinch majorities in the House or Senate, it will be by a razor-thin margin. Democrats did better than history would have predicted — the best a leading party has done in the midterms in 20 years. And that raises questions about political pollsters.
(snip)
Some polls were way off. Michigan's Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer had a very comfortable lead against Republican challenger Tudor Dixon in the polls over the summer and into fall. Then a poll was released on Oct. 31, well into the state's early voting period, finding the race was a virtual tie, and that half of independent voters were supporting Dixon, while less than 30 percent planned to vote for Whitmer. It was conducted by Insider Advantage, a Republican firm that has earned praise in the past for its polling methods and decently high accuracy rating from FiveThirtyEight, a group that aggregates polls.
Dixon's campaign excitedly responded, "Dixon is surging, independents are breaking in her favor, and the momentum is on her side with one week left before Election Day." A composite of polls found that Whitmer had a five-point lead over Dixon then, but the Republican's campaign seemingly had proof to show otherwise. On Tuesday night, Whitmer won the race by more than 10 percentage points, smashing the accuracy of the poll that hyped her opponent.
(snip)
"You want to look at a bunch of polls, you don't want to just look at one, and you want to look at the trend in polls. But you also want to look at some underlying fundamentals — what is the state of the economy? Do the candidates have enough money?"Furthermore, political polls are not gospel. "Elections are about turnout and that's not always who you are talking to in all of the polls," says Amy Dacey, executive director of the Sine Institute of Politics & Policy at American University. "Turnout is what matters. The only real true poll is what happens on Election Day."
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)I didn't assume anything. This is exactly what they wrote:
This was in the context of the NYT poll I posted THAT HE RESPONDED TO WITH THAT EXACT COMMENT.
I'm sorry you're unable to see he was peddling false information.
The NYT NEVER had Oz winning Pennsylvania. Not the newspaper. Not their poll. Not anything.
Their comment was a lie and your continued focus on something THAT WAS NOT DISCUSSED tells me you aren't even reading this thread and therefore I am done reading your replies since they have nothing to do with my point. You're arguing something that is not being discussed or debated, which is very common for people who have no leg to stand on.
Good luck and goodbye.
BumRushDaShow
(169,708 posts)
iemanja
(57,757 posts)You were taken to school. End of story.
iemanja
(57,757 posts)Polling is a very inexact science. You want to cast it all as a conspiracy against the left, which is nonsensical.
Farmer-Rick
(12,663 posts)Especially in 2022.
"Rosenberg — who has previously advised the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and is the president of the progressive think tank NDN — says he’s not in the business of predictions...…. He believes that, unlike in 2016 and 2020 when polling failed to register Trump’s strength as a candidate, this time around, it was the media analyzing the polls who got it wrong.
“There was a massive media failure this cycle,” he said. “The failure that just took place is more grave than the polling error [in 2020] because there were a lot of really smart people who basically misled tens of millions of people through their political commentary in the final few weeks.”"
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/11/27/23475262/midterm-elections-2022-results-red-wave-democrats
Frequently it's not just the polls but the corporate media that gets it wrong too. They spin the polls inaccurately in order to propell the propaganda. As the corporate media gets more and more monopolized and radical right, they just give up on telling the truth because there's no money in it.
iemanja
(57,757 posts)well inside the margin of error. They then create narratives about "waves," and that kind of BS. They do it to get eyes on the screen, and it costs more money to actually cover election issues and candidates in a thoughtful manner. That's what so bizarre about claiming Harris doesn't speak enough about policy. When has the media ever cared about policy?
gay texan
(3,216 posts)Its disgusting what they do.
wryter2000
(47,940 posts)Those days are gone
iemanja
(57,757 posts)and what you want requires no evidence.
wryter2000
(47,940 posts)1. Dems have been outperforming polls for years--as measured by actual behavior: how people vote. We have no way of knowing how strong that effect is, if it still holds.
2. The last polls I saw said Harris was ahead in all the swing states, except Georgia, where Trump has a 1-point advantage. Unless that's all sampling error, I don't call it a tie.
3. We have the enthusiasm and voter registration numbers.
4. Trump is running an abysmal campaign where he's outsourcing voter outreach--to Elon Musk, and we know how good he is at getting things done. And the man is deteriorating before our eyes.
If you want to call all that close, I won't argue. But IMHO it doesn't add up to a tie.
Butterflylady
(4,584 posts)There are a lot of new voters, republicans for Kamala, republicans that voted rump but after January 6. Real Americans will not let us down. They will not let those soldiers die in vain that faught and died for our freedom.
bluesbassman
(20,384 posts)Yes, we are a very divided nation politically thanks in large part to a news media that stokes the divide by reporting a lot of misinformation without any context or fact checking and says “let the voters decide”. Well that’s just propaganda then, isn’t it. As far as the “polls” go, I quit relying on their efficacy in 2016, and I believe it’s gotten worse every year since. We’ll see what happens on November 5th, but I believe it will be a landslide because as divided as we are, the ones on the right who actually support the convicted felon may be the loudest but they’re not the biggest group, and the rest of the right, and all of the rest of us are sick to death of that asshole.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)and in addition, there are probably a segment that do not want to spend 30 minutes or more asking involved questions which they may regard as personal.
I don't know how that factors in to the poll numbers.
bluesbassman
(20,384 posts)I rarely answer a call I don't recognize. As such, I've never been polled in almost fifty years of voting.
CrispyQ
(40,969 posts)One hundred! One fucking hundred!!
bluesbassman
(20,384 posts)
OLDMDDEM
(3,182 posts)in both the popular vote and the electoral vote count.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Reminder: Biden only won the electoral college by 46,000 or so votes (combined) across three states (Arizona, Georgia and Wisconsin). Had he lost all three of those states, Trump is reelected despite Biden winning the popular vote by nearly 5 points.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)He won Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, the three he needed, by a total of 246,000 votes combined in the three states.
OLDMDDEM
(3,182 posts)Trueblue Texan
(4,461 posts)I don't see any advantage for Dems in the narrative that it's going to be close unless it's to encourage folks to work harder. But I don't think anyone here is leaving anything to chance whether they think we're going to win or not. One thing that does not help is for the Dems to feel discouraged. I think Dems could learn something from the rethugs in their defiant insistence that they will win no matter what the numbers are telling them.
Emile
(42,281 posts)still vote for him, they have Trump Derangement Syndrome and are totally brainwashed.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)2018, 2020, 2022
Corporate media and private polls produce hype that's out of touch with this party's gains in coalition endorsements and the 50-state GOTV that's in play.
Refuse to believe the hype.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Her campaign realizes this is a coin-flip election and it's not going to be a blowout like some here suggest.
I think she's the favorite but only marginally and it'll come down to turnout in the key states.
But the last call I had with the Harris campaign regarding the election (on Monday), this was their breakdown of each state:
Lean Harris (21 EV):
Michigan
Nevada
Toss-up (45 EV):
North Carolina
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Lean-Trump (27 EV):
Arizona
Georgia
The good news is that Harris' campaign feels more confident about her chances in the Lean Trump states than they do Trump's chances in the Lean Harris states.
But regardless, it's close. It will be close. It'll all come down to turnout. Fortunately, there's a lot of enthusiasm on our side. But Republicans are also enthusiastic - way more than in 2008 and 2016.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)Okay, then. Let's do what we know how to do.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)ancianita
(43,307 posts)If you foreground 'likely voter' polls over 'leaning' polls, Democrats show better.
Other considerations...
By 2024 there are 40 trifecta states, and Democrats have 17, and can win the remaining 10 divided governments -- battlegrounds -- because we have 4 times more $$$ than the inert trump/vance campaign and are spending it on ad buy and GOTV ground game -- go, Jaimie Harrison!
Re NC battleground and Harris's presence and Biden's disaster relief, we should be able to win after Helene. Battlegrounds with large independent voter registrations are likely to break for the party that's done the most good -- one reason being that the youth market on the Internet has read more factual news, pressured their older family members to regain some sanity, and so we've been "overperforming" according to MSM. That the Internet has outrun MSM in factual trustworthiness is also why Joe and Kamala don't bother to do MSM interviews anymore.
Add some Harris/Walz town halls in close battlegrounds and we not only could win the general, but win more trifectas.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Democrats lost seats in the senate in 2018 and lost the House in 2022.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)Why? Because we have the numbers, and rethugs know it, which is why district voter suppression is constant even in red states like FL and GA, and not just battlegrounds. So far we're winning against that in the courts.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)ancianita
(43,307 posts)otoh, I also think that Independents will now see the difference between what each side says and what it does.
The other side wants to hype that they're "close" to stoke more fear rallies and voter suppression because they know they've got high party voter defection numbers since 2020.
A sure sign they don't think they'll win.
Zeitghost
(4,557 posts)We lost the House and lost the total popular vote by 3 points.
ancianita
(43,307 posts)Look, we can't fold to corporate media hype of a "close race" just because it amplifies that a few Republicans won the House.
The voter trends toward Democrats are clear from eight cycles of popular votes, and the outcomes since 2018. (FL has had a registration red wave, but one can't predict how one of the biggest 'independent' voter populations in U.S. states will likely vote this year. But keep in mind that "independents" contain voters who don't want donation or voting pressure and want folks to know that their vote is nobody's damn business.)
The 2022 midterms in review...
The Republican Party ended unified Democratic control of Congress and the presidency by winning a majority in the House of Representatives while Democrats expanded their Senate majority.
Midterm elections typically see the incumbent president's party lose a substantial number of seats, but Democrats outperformed the historical trend and a widely anticipated red wave did not materialize.
The Democratic Party's strength in state-level and senatorial elections was unexpected, as well as historic.
They won a net gain of two seats in the gubernatorial elections, flipping the governorships in Arizona, Maryland, and Massachusetts; conversely, Republicans flipped Nevada's governorship.
In the state legislative elections, Democrats flipped both chambers of the Michigan Legislature,
the Minnesota Senate, and the Pennsylvania House, and achieved a coalition government in the Alaska Senate.
As a result of these legislative and gubernatorial results,
Democrats gained government trifectas in Michigan for the first time since 1985, and in Massachusetts, Maryland, and Minnesota for the first time since 2015.
2022 is the first midterm since 1934 in which the president's party did not lose any state legislative chambers or incumbent senators. It was also the first midterm since 1986 in which either party achieved a net gain of governorships while holding the presidency, and the first since 1934 in which the Democrats did so under a Democratic president.
Six referendums to preserve or expand abortion access uniformly won in the states of Kansas, Kentucky, Michigan, and Montana, as did referenda increasing the minimum wage (Nebraska, Nevada, and Washington, D.C.) and expanding Medicaid coverage (South Dakota).
Maryland and Missouri became the latest states to legalize recreational cannabis.
Voters in Nevada also approved ranked voting over first-past-the-post.
Voters in Illinois and Tennessee approved a state constitutional right to collective bargain and a right-to-work law, respectively.
General turnout and turnout among voters aged 18–29, who are a strongly Democratic constituency, were the second-highest (after 2018) of any midterm since the 1970 U.S. elections.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_United_States_elections
obamanut2012
(29,367 posts)Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)Trump got the October surprise yesterday.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)And that's why she's in Wisconsin today and not Texas like some here think she should be since she's so far ahead according to many.
lees1975
(7,046 posts)Not according to the polls you believe in so much. They say GOP enthusiasm is down.
Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)
Mariana
(15,624 posts)They read about a few formerly die-hard Republicans or white Evangelical preachers speaking against Trump, and imagine they represent some huge number of Trump supporters doing the same.
LymphocyteLover
(9,842 posts)LymphocyteLover
(9,842 posts)Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)Every Monday, we sit in on a conference call with the DNC, Harris' campaign and other state parties (as well as the congressional campaigns).
But these are not private numbers. If you search, you'll find plenty of articles quoting her internals. It's just most here tend to dismiss those articles or leaks. But they're pretty accurate.
Also: watch where Harris and Walz campaign to get an idea of what states they consider the most importance. Walz was in Pennsylvania yesterday, Harris is in Wisconsin today. Georgia yesterday.
LymphocyteLover
(9,842 posts)giving the full picture. Because of course the Harris-Walz campaign wants people to think they are just ahead of Trump but it is so close, because that's how they get more people to donate.
Not that I'm saying they are lying but you always have to worry about spin.
obamanut2012
(29,367 posts)Self Esteem
(2,248 posts)I live out west but work for the local party. Every Monday, the Harris campaign and DNC hold a conference call with congressional campaigns and state parties to give a rundown on the state of the race. It's not secret info, either.
You can Google it and find articles referencing the internals.
FHRRK
(1,410 posts)And now I had to scroll back up, DAMN! you nailed it.
rofl:
rofl:
rofl:
rofl:
sarisataka
(22,694 posts)
samsingh
(18,426 posts)i'm not sure why the polls are still so close. How would trump be getting any new delta supporters at this point?
Wednesdays
(22,592 posts)...wrote about a survey that said something like 70 percent of Americans would be on board to repeal 8 out of the 10 amendments of the Bill of Rights. Sorry I don't have more details, but that sounds quite plausible, and likely those numbers haven't changed much since then.
Tree Lady
(13,281 posts)money because he promises lower taxes and for the religious abortion bans and more religion in schools and other places.
They probably don't like Trump a bunch of them but will use him to get what they want.
EverHopeful
(692 posts)you can bet they'll choose autocracy and I think that's what we're seeing.
It seems impossible to get through to them that they are supporting the very people who sent their jobs overseas, destroyed their ability to join unions, their ability to afford higher education, their ability to buy homes, or even to feed their families on 1 income.
Anyone who speaks out to protect those things gets shouted down as Socialist, or even Communist, or Marxist.
They bellow about freedom and liberty without realizing that the autocrats they support are really saying freedom and liberty for me but not for thee. In fact, they're working towards far less freedom and liberty for us peasants.
When we win this election, I must keep reminding myself that our work isn't done and I must do whatever I'm able to ensure that we keep moving towards sending the Autocracy the message that we don't want them taking control of our republic.
LAS14
(15,506 posts)...don't understand them we can't fight them.
displacedvermoter
(4,489 posts)Columbia, Missouri or Bentonville, Arkansas and ask them how they feel, that might help us to understand them better?
keep_left
(3,210 posts)...This Modern World? 
https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217366772#post13
(See panel #5). And the "Sunday Talking About Stuff Show" meme is on point; "the chef's kiss", as the kids say. 
LAS14
(15,506 posts)... the kind of thing I see on news outlets I trust from time to time. I've found it very informative.
There was an interesting story somewhere about the development of an AI system that would interact with people who believed in one conspiracy theory or another and would get them to moderate their views by asking specific questions and responding, respectfully, with specific answers.
displacedvermoter
(4,489 posts)As I asked last week, why don't they go to a chamber music concert in a suburb of Omaha, or to a an art exhibit in St. Augustine to get some people who have a different perspective from those they talk to in truck stops, NASCAR events, or shooting ranges?
h2ebits
(1,002 posts)IMO you are 100% correct in your thoughts.
We need to know, understand, and acknowledge the problems before we can deal with them.
Amongst other things: Outreach to ALL of the states should be mandatory. We currently have a whole bunch of states (people) labeled a long time ago as "fly-over" states.
Our elections have become "horse races" determined by the polls. Personally, I think of the polls as skewed in favor of the people who pay for them. When there is a "neck-and-neck" race per the polls it matters to me only in that it creates an incentive for people to GOTV with enthusiasm for their candidates of choice.
Biden has done a truly excellent job as President and we have an extensive list of accomplishments during his term in office to inform the people. We struggle with actually doing that. We need to educate at the ground level and it needs to be done all year round; not just during the election period. Biden did that with outreach to the Unions. He actively and loudly supported Unions and the people in them. And, Unions have stepped up and backed the Democrats for this election.
We have NOT done a good job educating people about the Infrastructure Bill at the ground level. Most of us, including me, are fairly clueless about what it contains and how it is affecting us as individuals.
Just a couple of examples but, hopefully, you catch my drift.
Keepthesoulalive
(2,301 posts)The things they have said about the people from Haiti that are here legally.
Blaming immigrants for all of our problems, the things Vance has said about women should disqualify him from the human race forget about being vice president. They don’t care about America, decency, democracy. We can only out vote them. They are a cult and we don’t have the knowledge or time to deprogram them. Many of these people are not hurting financially they are just hateful and petty. Stop catering to their bigotry and help Democrats who give a damn about this country get to the polls.
h2ebits
(1,002 posts)with an eye for the bigger and long term picture. Your comment appears to me as though you are caught in a moment of time --- that being the upcoming election.
I believe that we are at a very serious point in time and GOTV will determine the future of our democracy. I am quite outspoken about this and pushing for everyone to VOTE BLUE.
Keepthesoulalive
(2,301 posts)There is only one group of people who are threatening brown people. Folks are afraid to put up signs
, bumper stickers and anything that my paint you as a democrat .You are not going to reach people who are full of hate and your time could be better spent fighting for voting rights. Those same people vote for people who would deny people the right to vote, women’s medical care, free lunches for children and a lot of other issues that could improve our country. If we have not reached them since the civil war we aren’t going to reach them now. I know history and in a lot of states we are still fighting that war.
Demsrule86
(71,542 posts)twice I was called with no question about January 6th or Roe. And the questions are slanted.
rubbersole
(11,221 posts)Polls and msm are losing their relevancy with each election. They are ignored by most younger people. Kind of like local TV weather when a tropical storm starts to develop. The risk rarely matches the coverage. This election will expose the lengths the oligarchs will take to stay in control. We're just getting started fighting unlimited money.
NameAlreadyTaken
(2,301 posts)Frank D. Lincoln
(894 posts)In almost no time at all they'd come to their senses, come back to America, and vote blue.
Experience is the best teacher.
Joinfortmill
(21,157 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 3, 2024, 12:18 PM - Edit history (1)
Wednesdays
(22,592 posts)If we get out the vote, we win. If we don't get out the vote, we lose. It's as simple as that.
Sibelius Fan
(24,808 posts)The polls that are biased toward Rs know this. They have shifted their strategy to influencing what happens post-election, rather than pre-election. They are laying the groundwork for the “how could the polls have been so wrong? There must have been cheating” post-election line of attack.
FrankBooth
(1,851 posts)It's exactly the point of these Red Wave push polls. They want to both demoralize and maintain the illusion that it's much closer than it is. People should stop the daily fucking posts of these things because they don't help KH or Democrats, they just feed the misinformation firehose.
uponit7771
(93,532 posts)LAS14
(15,506 posts)
peppertree
(23,336 posts)No one can grow up in the Deep South, and doubt that.
It is what it is.
markodochartaigh
(5,545 posts)I grew up gay in Amarillo a half century ago. It isn't surprising to me that one third of the population really doesn't care enough to vote as long as they get their hamberders and sportsball. Or that of the two thirds who do care enough to vote, about half absolutely do not want democracy if it means that they are not in charge.
But a lot of people in the Democratic party have a need to believe that there are not very many authoritarians (fascists, although many Democratic voters are uncomfortable with this term). I won't use the German comparison since it makes many uncomfortable. But I believe that in every authoritarian aggression from time immemorial there have been a lot of people in the groups which were subjugated who simply could not believe that their oppressors were so numerous or so cruel.
peppertree
(23,336 posts)I lived in the Ft. Worth area for a couple of years - and remember some of the RW blockheads.
This was when Dubya invaded Iraq. What seemed to bother them most, wasn't domestic opposition - but in France!
"We oughta nuke Paris!" was a common sentiment - though again, only among the Repuglicans.
Suffice it to say, LGBT issues were utterly taboo - and weren't to be even mentioned (although I do remember the rumors around Rick Perry and a supposed 2004 incident having to do with a gay tryst in an Austin hotel - and a fire alarm which, they say, sent him into a panic attack).
It's nothing to me - I'm bi, myself (and by myself 
). As it happens - I remember stopping for dinner in Amarillo once, and the receptionist was this very pretty gay guy, no more than 20, who was as sweet as can be and gave me a mischievous smile (nothing happened).
But I do remember thinking how brave he must be, being gay and in Amarillo. Yes, the owner of that restaurant (cowboy-themed, as I recall) seemed to appreciate him. But what of some of these others - like the people you described.
So - kudos to you, Mark, for your own bravery. Here's hoping that, someday soon, the good people of Amarillo wake up to the fact that Cheeto and his billionaire bankrollers just see them as props - to be used and abused as the occasion requires.
All the Best.
Rocknation
(45,006 posts)Biden won by 4.5 points in 2020; Obama by 7 points in 2008.
Rocknation
Mike Nelson
(10,943 posts)... it is the "voting population" and not half the people. Registered and "likely" voters in "swing states" - plus the "Electoral College" add up to more Trump fanatics than really exist. Still, even 38% of Republicans is too high...
TheKentuckian
(26,314 posts)Unless they come off the couches they are phantoms.
If what they thought had any hope of mattering then they'd not be nonvoters.
DeepWinter
(931 posts)I'm a DU outlier because I'm a moderate compared to most on this board, but...
Just because someone you don't like says something you don't like doesn't make it hate speech.
Our Democracy is just fine. If your party doesn't get elected, that's not the end of democracy. In fact, that is democracy. The people spoke and you personally didn't get what you wanted, but the people as a whole got what they wanted. You hate it, it's fine.
We survived Trump once and against all the cries of democracy being dead, democracy lived just fine and gave us Joe Biden. Now again we hear if we don't win democracy is dead. Wash, rinse, repeat. It's tiring. It's almost as if people don't want democracy. They want an all powerful autocratic benevolent single party. Any other parties are the bane of democracy. /sigh
I think at this point we all know from the big book of American and World history, Democracy is messy.
/FlameSuit is on.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)that Jack Smith just released, along with the contents of Project 2025, you would know just how serious this is.
When somebody says they are going to do something, believe them.
This has nothing to do with being liberal, moderate, or conservative. This is about our democracy.
obamanut2012
(29,367 posts)jaxexpat
(7,794 posts)That would be convenient. Jack could then get his ducks lined up and the cause written neatly on the warrant before they're arrested for treason.
Roc2020
(1,787 posts)Kamala has a respectable lead. But I do not have any confidence in presidential polls. Plus, the media reporting its tied is a good thing. That will motivate people to come out. And Dems need every single solitary vote!
disappearingboy
(87 posts)If the polls are so close, what are you actually doing? Are you volunteering? Phone-banking? Writing e-mails? Talking to people you know? Working on getting out the vote some other way?
Or are you just gonna sit here, wring your hands, and tell folks that we're cooked either way?
prodigitalson
(3,193 posts)appmanga
(1,492 posts)...because it challenges them to accepting and tolerant of people, customs, and ideas that are different from them. There are people who believe a more egalitarian and equitable America is a worse place because it diminishes their superiority. For some people, that's frightening. And, as we can see, that's not a small number. And I don't care what kind of spin someone tries to put on it; if you can vote for a bigot, you're okay with bigotry. If you can vote for a misogynist, you're okay with misogyny.
iemanja
(57,757 posts)Last edited Thu Oct 3, 2024, 01:14 PM - Edit history (1)
She showed her face in 2016. Nothing since can surprise me, and certainly not a close election--which was always going to be the case. The only place where people think it will be a blowout is DU, and that thinking is fantasy.
TRHST82
(57 posts)The other half are just as evil and hypocritical as he is.
LymphocyteLover
(9,842 posts)but all rightwing media has destroyed 10s of millions of Americans
liberalla
(11,088 posts)
How do they get people to do polls? Land lines? Cell phones (how do they get those numbers?) I'm getting a lot of calls now from unknown numbers in other states, and like most people, I don't answer them. So, I assume they only poll people who always answer their phones.
IrishAfricanAmerican
(4,469 posts)A modern landslide. Kamala will get at least 42 states. I hope it carries the Senate for us as well.
WOMEN ARE PISSED!!
iemanja
(57,757 posts)I'll bookmark this for election night.
Sympthsical
(10,966 posts)Try discussing a television show online. Either you're woke if you like it or a racist misogynist if you don't. That's the discourse.
It's like, guys, I'm just trying to watch tv.
It's invading everything everywhere, and it's human nature to hunker down into groups. The media have always been like this with "If it bleeds, it leads." Now we have social media algorithms that put that on steroids. Everything is designed for engagement, and anxiety, fear, and anger are the big three of engagement.
I scrub my YouTube history daily, and the shit still leaks into my feed, because it's ubiquitous. Every single day you're being asked, with a social component of peer pressure beamed directly into your home, which side are you on? And typically, people will pick their cultural sides. Policy ain't got nothin to do with it. Policy and ideology driven political junkies are the outliers - not the norm.
We are all culture war all the time. Trump doesn't have to be an amazing person. He just has to be Not The Other Side.
That's it. That's the mystery.
What is anyone doing to undo this polarization? Very little in my view. Take DU, which I do understand is a partisan space, so some of this is expected. But every publication ever is right-wing. All of them. Only Twitter - and sometimes MSNBC - can be trusted news sources now. People brag about how they have no Republican friends. They don't talk to Republican family. They will only watch shows or consume products or frequent businesses if they know their politics - their tribal identity - is shared and affirmed.
Well, ok. But if that's acceptable behavior for us, why are we so very shocked when the other side engages in same?
To fix the problem in this country requires some self-reflection, some self-awareness that doesn't devolve into the most self-absorbed navel gazing. "Well, perhaps the problem here is that I'm too awesome."
But no one wants to do it. Everyone else needs to bend - not me. And if they don't bend, well, they're clearly idiots and all manner of evil, and it's so obvious that everyone can see it.
But hey. It's mystery. Out of a clear blue sky how we got to where we got.
Shermann
(9,062 posts)cilla4progress
(26,525 posts)where the survivor / victim keeps returning for more?
I think it's self-hatred, knowing all we've done to violate human rights and the environment since Europeans first settled here.
B.See
(8,490 posts)Considering this shouldn't even BE close, I cannot disagree. Win or lose, it has certainly changed MY trust in the "inherent goodness" of... many.
Martin68
(27,741 posts)I don't know whether the polls are accurate, but I do know that people that seem normal still support Trump. IMO, Fox News and the right wing media have succeeded in monopolizing the attention of a large group of Americans and brainwashing them. These people just never see factual news that we take for granted.
Jon Waters
(2 posts)Unfortunately, racism and sexism are still driving factors in this country (along with zenophobia). Consequently, you have millions of people in this country who will literally vote against their best interests. Seriously, a convicted felon charge with sexual assault charges is the Republican candidate, and his Republican supporters act like they have the moral high ground. It is quite pathetic.
LetMyPeopleVote
(179,822 posts)
Just_Vote_Dem
(3,644 posts)But there are a lot of sad, scary people in this country for sure
viva la
(4,598 posts)I never get calls from pollsters, though I've been registered to vote for 40 years.
Considering that almost no one answers an unknown number, how are pollsters finding 1000 people for each poll?
Are they actually able to talk to young voters? They must have SOME young voters in their sample, but again, how many young people respond to an unknown number?
And if they're not reaching people who don't answer unknown numbers, then how can the results be reliable?
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)Last edited Fri Oct 4, 2024, 09:55 AM - Edit history (2)
want to spend thirty minutes or so answering questions some deem as personal?
viva la
(4,598 posts)answering questions about politics.
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)pollsters.
Dem4life1970
(1,056 posts)Harris blowout. It is embarrassing that this race is close and speaks to white supremacy, misogyny and many other ugly uncomfortable, but realistic truths that his flawed, criminal candidacy and Presidency has unearthed in full view of the entire world. He is an international embarrassment....
JohnSJ
(98,883 posts)
Beartracks
(14,591 posts)... they've been misled to believe that democracy looks like the fascism that the rightwing pushes on its propaganda networks.
========
soldierant
(9,354 posts)I absolutely do not believe that as much as 50% of voters actually know what democracy is. I read something today suggesting that using the word "freedom" might be more appealing than saying "drmocracy - as if there were any such thing as universal freedom in any government other than a democracy.
And, as for misogyny, the Lincoln Projct gets it (now). I just hope their advertising is not too little nor too lste.
ecstatic
(35,074 posts)so many people are so stupid. I think that hurts almost as much as the thought of trump in the white house again.
Metaphorical
(2,634 posts)* Landlines, once a reliable component in polling, are now hopelessly irrelevant. There have been attempts - some better than others - to make better use of Internet polling, but such polling is by its very nature self-selecting, which is always a challenge for pollsters.
* I think both sides in this discussion are somewhat correct. There are more push-polling pollsters who don't care about reputation, but in general the university-based pollsters are still pretty good. Aggregating was a trick that Nate Silver used to create a running model, but determining the weights of each poll is very difficult, given the number of comparatively new polls with little track record.
* This is a highly abbreviated and dynamic political campaign, due to what happened in July. Pollsters create models, and those models require data. There simply hasn't been enough of that data to get an accurate sense of where the electorate actually stands, especially wrt Harris.
* We're also in a situation where Trump's base is pretty much fixed (and shrinking, I suspect, but that's harder to determine). People either love or hate him, there's very little middle ground left. Kamala Harris is a comparative unknown, and Walz is absolutely an unknown. Again, when people DO see them, they generally respond favorably, but the media is not doing Harris any real favors here. Again, from a polling standpoint, this means that people's exposure to the Democratic ticket is fluctuating but trending upwards, though capturing that information is not easy.
* Misogyny and racism are going to be factors, but so is ageism. Trump did himself no favors at the Harris debate, especially after hammering that Biden was too old. We've never had a presidential candidate who has run while having been indicted for crimes.
* We've only had one President that had previously been an Attorney General - Bill Clinton, though Walter Mondale as VP was one as well. This dynamic of the AG and the Convict is not lost on people, but it's not really something being captured in the polling. When you have too many unprecedented factors, it makes races much harder to determine.
* Demographics are not in Trump's favor. The irony is that Trump's pandemic response (and the huge anti-vaccine push), is costing him now, as Covid hit his strongest demographic hard (and continues to do so - by all indications, for those that were over 60 during the Pandemic, life expectancy has dropped by about 2 years, and by nearly 5 years in many red states, as long-Covid systems have continued to take their toll.
I could go into more detail, but I think this is just a tough race to call, and it has a HUGE MoE as a consequence. Kamala could be crushed (unlikely), could win the popular vote but not the EC (quite possible), could win the EC but not the popular vote (unlikely) or could win both, hopefully with enough of a margin to make it hard for Trump to cheat. I think the best you can do with the polls is what I recommend in general - pay less attention to headline numbers and pay more attention to trends. Trump's trending numbers are not good, especially with an upper cap on his base, and early voting is likely to bake those numbers in before November.
kerry-is-my-prez
(10,281 posts)Then there’s all these RW radio stations - apparently the Spanish language stations are really crazy. The only place I can find that is not tilting to the right is MSNBC.
autorank
(29,483 posts)The bad news - the Trump voters will still be here.
On some great and glorious day the plain folks of the land will reach their heart's desire at last, and the White House will be adorned by a downright moron.H.L. Menken July 1920
orleans
(36,912 posts)"THE MEDIA IS IN THE TANK FOR TRUMP; IGNORES 3RD COUP EVIDENCE - 10.4.24
Go and look for Jack Smith’s evidence against Trump on the front pages of America’s newspapers and the top of America’s newscasts. Go and look for the stories about the evidence he produced that there were not TWO coup attempts by Trump and his whores on January 6th, but three. Go. I'll wait.
Not even 48 hours since the most damning document ever composed about an American president, makes the Watergate testimony look like the comedian’s script at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner, and it’s already virtually disappeared from our American media because whether its leaders know it or not American media is not just in the tank for Trump but its leaders have already drowned there and there are only a few journalists left.
But her emails.
https://omny.fm/shows/countdown-with-keith-olbermann/the-media-is-in-the-tank-for-trump-ignores-3rd-cou
Frank D. Lincoln
(894 posts)who predicts Kamala Harris is going to win.
He has a near-perfect 40-year track record and I predict that his prediction is going to be right.
In a healthy democracy, Kamala Harris would literally win all 50 states, given how horrifically atrocious Donald Trump is. However, even in our current unhealthy democracy, she'll win enough electoral college votes to become our next president.
[https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219513323|
Tweedy
(1,284 posts)of the voting public do not vote at all.
Remember too a lot of republicans despise Mr. Trump; meanwhile, they have spent most of their lives being misinformed that democrats are demons. Newt Gingrich started that. Perhaps this election will be the wake up call those folks need.
Finally before you despair of the raging ignorance in our country, remember vast swaths of rural America are awash in right wing radio, Sinclair lying for trump local stations and quite patchy WiFi.
If we can change those information deserts into WiFi connected zones maybe 🤔 we would see a change in views in those areas.
PennRalphie
(448 posts)Former trump voters are looking for a reason to vote for Democrats. Have they seen that yet? Polls say no. Kamala coming out in favor of fracking helps.
I’ve said all along Kamala wins PA and the WH. I remain cautiously optimistic about that.
So many of you live in deep blue areas, you don’t even know a Republican. I know Republicans, I would never ever disown a family member or end a friendship over politics. When you don’t know anyone who doesn’t think like you, it’s hard to understand why they vote differently than you. In the non deep blue areas, it’s very normal.