(7 Oct 5 am: Milton strengthening) (bolding mine)

[nitpicked]

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/070857.shtml

Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 AM CDT Mon Oct 07 2024

...MILTON STRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.1N 92.6W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM WNW OF PROGRESO MEXICO
ABOUT 750 MI...1210 KM WSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...972 MB...28.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Government of Mexico has issued a Hurricane Warning for the
coast of the Yucatan Peninsula from Celestun to Rio Lagartos.

A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf coast of Florida
from Chokoloskee northward to the mouth of the Suwanee River,
including Tampa Bay, and the Dry Tortugas.

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from
Flamingo northward to the Suwannee River, including Charlotte Harbor
and Tampa Bay.

A Tropical Storm Watch is now in effect for the Florida Gulf Coast
west of the Suwannee River to Indian Pass, and south of Chokoloskee
to Flamingo. A Tropical Storm Watch has also been issued for the
Lower, Middle, and Upper Florida Keys, including Florida Bay

(snip)

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 22.1 North, longitude 92.6 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-southeast near 8 mph (13 km/h). An eastward to
east-southeastward motion is forecast through tonight, followed by a
turn toward the east and northeast on Tuesday and Wednesday. On the
forecast track, Milton is forecast to move near or just north of
the Yucatan Peninsula today and Tuesday, then cross the eastern
Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of the Florida Peninsula
by Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are now near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is forecast to intensify rapidly and become a major
hurricane later today.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles (35 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 80 miles
(130 km).
(snip)

STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 2
to 4 feet above ground level along the northern coast of the
Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the
surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.

The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anclote River, FL to Englewood, FL...8-12 ft
Tampa Bay...8-12 ft
Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...5-10 ft
Englewood, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...5-10 ft
Charlotte Harbor...5-10 ft
Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...4-7 ft
Suwannee River, FL to Yankeetown, FL...3-5 ft
(snip)

[nitpicked]

1. Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/070242.shtml?

(snip)

The center has nudged a little southward over the past several
hours, and the initial motion is now 105/7 kt. Milton is moving
within the southern portion of a broad mid-level trough over the
Gulf of Mexico, and is also being influenced by the flow on the
southwest side of a low pressure area over the eastern Gulf of
Mexico. The global models suggest the mid-level trough and surface
low should move eastward into the Atlantic during the next 48 h,
with a second mid- to upper-level trough digging into the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This evolution should cause Milton to
move east-southeastward to eastward for the next 36 h or so,
followed by a turn toward the northeast at a faster forward speed.
The track guidance is in good agreement that the hurricane will
cross the Florida Peninsula, but there remains significant
differences in both the location and timing of landfall. The UKMET
is fastest and farthest to the east, the GFS is slower and much
farther north, and the Canadian being the slowest and keeping the
storm offshore more than 24 h longer than the other models. The
new forecast track calls for the center to reach the Florida west
coast between 60-72 h in best agreement with the ECMWF and the
multimodel consensus. It should be noted that the average NHC track
error at day 3 is around 100 miles, and users should not focus
on the exact track. After landfall, Milton should turn more
eastward as it becomes extratropical.

For the first 36 h or so, Milton should be on an environment of
moderate shear over warm sea surface temperatures. Thus, steady to
rapid intensification is expected, and the intensity forecast
continues to call for the cyclone to become a category 4 hurricane.
After 36 h, Milton is expected to encounter a much less favorable
environment with strong shear and dry air entrainment. Therefore,
some weakening is anticipated before the hurricane reaches the
Florida Gulf coast. However, the system is still likely to be a
large and powerful hurricane at landfall in Florida, with
life-threatening hazards along portions of the the coastline. After
landfall, Milton should weaken and start extratropical transition,
which should be complete by 96 h.
(snip)

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 07/0900Z 22.1N 92.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 07/1800Z 21.9N 91.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 08/0600Z 22.2N 89.4W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 08/1800Z 23.1N 87.5W 125 KT 145 MPH
48H 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W 125 KT 145 MPH
60H 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W 110 KT 125 MPH
72H 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
96H 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
(snip)

[Stargazer99]

2. Trump said climate warming was a hoax-odd how much damage that hoax is doing

and you believed him. Now will the South drain our national budget because they didn't want to listen to the scientist that told them over 10 years ago this would happen. I bet there will be more violent storms
are you going to drain our National Budget ?

[jaxexpat]

3. It appears the Tampa/St Petersburg area and points south along the left coast are in for hell.

The potential for costly destruction is tremendous and may well change the international banking metric for natural disaster. That's the new normal for weather in these days of a global climate "hoax" supremacy.

And now for some levity in the guise of :
Savings and loan-oriented institutions are having an industry changing challenge corralling risk in what was once a predictable arena. I expect many portfolios to reduce their underwriting commitments even further. This will generally destabilize the money business as old parameters are rendered extinct. Some seed money will go begging as disinvestment wracks the certain values of wealth.

I know very little about economics. I'm merely channeling my inner "Greenspan".

[ananda]

4. It's going to ba 140 mph in two days

It's tightening and organising.

not good

[Old Crank]

5. Dry Tortugas

Not for long. Hope people can stay safe and get out the area.

[lostnfound]

6. My wise sis packed up and made the trek 650 miles yesterday morning with 2 dogs and cat

Thanks to my best-boyfriend-forever, who flew on a 630 am flight yesterday after 2 or 3 hours of sleep, helped board her doors, and made the trek with her.
I am sure they are utterly exhausted and are now dealing with 5 dueling dogs in 1 (fortunately large) house while I’m out of town.

I offered my bro to fly him out, but we are sort of old ‘Florida crackers’, genetically not likely to ‘run from hurricanes’, and he does not want to leave his house or small aquatic creatures. If this is a category 3 hitting the very populated tampa Bay Area, with the eye just *south* of tampa bay, it will be serious and power and roads will be out in swaths of the area for up to a week in pinellas and in tampa, I bet. Major flooding in some low lying areas, but mostly dodging a bullet.

But if this ends up being the category 4 that lands in center Pinellas and crosses on the north side of Tampa Bay, I am afraid that the toll will be very high. A direct hit for St Petersburg or Clearwater, where i grew up, and, then the water of Tampa Bay will be pushed in large waves into low lying south tampa, direct hit for Tampa. My heart aches at the thought.

A very high percentage of people have no insurance and many of those will lose their homes together with all belongings. It will take many months for the city at large to dig out from the need for construction, utilities restoration, infrastructure repairs. If there’s damage to any of the 4 bridges, it’s major.