NY Times/Siena Poll; Harris up 3 natioanlly

[Pototan]

While the Times/Siena poll shows some solid advantages for Mr. Trump, the results suggest Ms. Harris is making gains, if small ones, on questions about temperament, trust and change that can be critical in a presidential race.

The poll, conducted from Sept. 29 to Oct. 6 among 3,385 likely voters, found that Ms. Harris led Mr. Trump, the Republican, by 49 percent to 46 percent, a slight lead that is within the poll’s margin of error.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/08/us/politics/harris-trump-poll-national.html

On edit by me: From what I'm hearing and reading, the 3-point lead could be rounded up to 4 points, meaning that the 49% for Harris is most likely a few tenths more than 49% and the 46% for Trump is probably a few tenths less than 46%. It's safe to assume, then, that the Harris lead in this poll is at least 3.5%.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/10/08/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

[Abnredleg]

1. It was tied last time /NT

[RJ_MacReady]

2. not a credible poll

NYT/Siena polls aren't credible anymore. She is likely further ahead and they gave too much weight to trumpers.

[dem4decades]

3. I hope you're right, 3% isn't enough.

[JohnSJ]

8. I hope so. They add weighting factors to groups they consider under-represented in the poll. They also indicated in

this poll that 17% were undecided. In my opinion that in itself makes this poll questionable.

[BeyondGeography]

4. And they have her -13 in FL

Which the term “outlier” doesn’t even begin to describe. Republicans have 7.5 percent advantage in party ID in Florida and the poll sampled 14-15 percent more R’s than D’s. Whatever.

[Pototan]

6. The biggest takeaway from these polls

is the movement toward Harris of between 3 and 4 points in a month in the very same poll.

[BeyondGeography]

7. If the FL numbers are remotely accurate

it’s hard to see where her new national lead comes from if not from strong positive movement in swing states. The NYT also mentioned that Trump is polling much stronger in NY (which it adds remains safely Democratic) than in the last election so that’s one big blue state that doesn’t explain the national shift.

[JohnSJ]

9. They also say that 17% are undecided. If 17% are really undecided, then this is not a valid poll.

[BeyondGeography]

10. The only reason I pay attention to this poll is it drives news coverage

If Trump had this +3 move on the top line we’d be looking at end times headlines for the next few days.

[kansasobama]

5. I will take it

It is alway good to see polls which were against Dems showing a lead.

[617Blue]

11. That means what? 6?

[Pototan]

12. I don't know what your question means, but I'll try

The Times poll says Harris has 49% and Trump 46%. But, in the crosstabs there is a note that the margin is 4% because of rounding.

Now, this is just an example that I'm using, because the poll doesn't use decimal points.

So, let's say that Harris is 49.3%. That rounds down to 49%. Now, let's say, by way of example, that Trump is at 45.8%. That rounds up to 46%. But when you subtract Harris' 49.3% from Trump's 45.8%, you get a margin of 3.5%. 3.5% rounds up to 4%.

Those tenths in an actual election can be the margin of victory in some states. It was in 2016 and 2020. But letting us know that the margin rounds to 4%, that means it's not, say, 2.5% and has to be at least 3.5%. That rounding without decimals could amount to an unknow whole point. That makes quite a difference.

[obamanut2012]

14. Yes

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. The NYT polls can be safely ignored without distorting one's perspective of the race

Oversampling republicans, men, rural and southern voters makes for a deeply flawed poll.

Outliers gonna lie.

[obamanut2012]

15. The -13 in FL is ridiculous