David Pakman legitimately worried about Trump's PA crowd size

[Polybius]

Normally I would brush it off, but Pakman is a good liberal who's show I enjoy, and he still thinks Harris will win. He's just a little worried about PA and wants to step up efforts to GOTV.

So, what do you think? Legitimate concern that Trump could win PA, or this nonsense?

[GreenWave]

1. If they pay people to register to vote, they pay them to show up too.

[wnylib]

54. Would they pay that much money for that many people?

With Elon's money, they might. I guess he could have hired buses to bring people in from various locations. If so, I think that there would be some video of buses from media who covered the rally.

It is strange that so many people would show up in a small city like Butler. It is near Pittsburgh and the urban areas of PA are Democratic, like Erie to the north of Butler. So most of the people at the rally would be from the rural areas between Erie and Pittsburgh, I guess. Maybe some from Ohio and West Virginia which are not far from the Butler/Pittsburgh area.

[Cosmocat]

104. I 100% believe that there could be that kind of turnout

First, there really is very little in the way of people north of Butler to Erie. Its a horrible drive that people hate.

I was born outside of Pittsburgh and my personal experience is that there is great depth of truly loathsome people through out the counties surrounding Pittsburgh, Butler itself, Armstrong, Cambria, Westmoreland, Washington, Fayette.

[PittBlue]

129. I lived in Westmoreland and taught in Fayette.

Last edited Wed Oct 9, 2024, 04:37 PM - Edit history (1)

That whole part of the state is infested with trumpers. It is horrifying. Plus I’m sure that people from Ohio and West Virginia made the trip.

[wnylib]

130. I'm from Erie and more familiar with the northwestern counties, like

Erie, Crawford, Warren, and Bradford.

I had an aunt who lived in Pittsburgh. When I was a child and we visited her, it seemed to take forever to get there, going through small towns, hamlets, and open, rural areas. After I-79 was completed, we could bypass those areas and get there much faster.

[JI7]

2. Fetterman gave a warning about it also

It will be better to overestimate his support and be wrong than the ither way around.

(I didn't watch the video but assume it really is about Trump getting larger crowds in PA)

[Quiet Em]

3. Butler, Pennsylvania is now like sacred ground to the cult,

I'll be most of the crowd was not even from Pennsylvania.

[Joe Cool]

33. You're right about the crowd.

The hotels around Butler all had no vacancy signs out for about a week before the rally.

[misanthrope]

58. It's like Mecca for the smooth-brained

They poured in there from every cranny and damp crevice within 12 hours' drive.

[Charging Triceratops]

78. The hayseeds from the PA sticks and illiterate southeast Ohio are all there

There's nobody left back home

[Rebl2]

113. My thought

as well. Many could have come from other states.

[wnylib]

131. America's shrine to religious theatrics and creepy, soulless weirdos

masquerading as leaders.

[Ferrets are Cool]

132. This

[LymphocyteLover]

135. Indeed. This was a huge deal for all the MAGAts

[femmedem]

4. I can't watch the video right now, but no one should take Pennsylvania for granted.

The most recent poll (Oct 7, Redfield & Wilton Strategies) has Harris up by 1%, Emerson had them even on Sept. 27/28, and 270 to Win gives Harrison only a 54% chance of winning.

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/pennsylvania

[Wiz Imp]

105. I don't see anyone taking Pennsylvania for granted

Many may be cautiously optimistic but that is a long way from taking things for granted. As for the polls, most polls show things very close, but almost all show either a Harris lead or a tie (of the last 8 non-right wing polls, 6 show a Harris lead and 2 show a tie). The only recent polls showing Trump leading are known to be right wing biased polls. In fact, the last poll from a "neutral" pollster to show a Trump lead was almost a month ago when Emerson showed a 1% Trump lead. So even their current dead heat can be looked at positively because it represents movement toward Harris since the previous poll. I live in PA and based on what I'm observing, I remain cautiously optimistic.

[Prairie Gates]

5. ...

[lees1975]

6. They've been promoting this rally for a long time, his return to Butler.

Noting that Harris and Walz have drawn crowds equally as large to venues in Western PA, including to some of the same places Trump has had trouble filling, I wouldn't be all that concerned. There are over 80,000 Republican registered voters in that county, not counting the surrounding ones and that crowd is, what, maybe 5,000?

She's up in every credible, non-red waving poll in PA, and with the difference in 2020 being a little over 80,000 votes, that about what her current polling average would work out to be.

[WarGamer]

14. It's like 30k+ people. Watch the video.

[Wiz Imp]

19. Not even close

The Trump campaign itself didn't claim that many people. Their immediate number was 20,000 and we know they exaggerate all crod sizes. Politifact says this:

We could find no official tally, but estimates from police, local news outlets and bus operators put the number of attendees between 10,000 and about 15,000.

[WarGamer]

27. you're quoting a 2020 article.

[Wiz Imp]

73. Sorry about that

But the general point stands. The Trump campaign exaggerates everything as the 2020 article showed so I would fully expect them to be exaggerating here. There was nowhere near 60000 people there.

[Self Esteem]

36. No way is that only 10,000 people.

This was Trump's Bronx rally, which was estimated at 8,000-10,000.



That Butler crowd is way bigger.

I'd say between 20,000-30,000.

[Joe Cool]

38. Butler, PA resident here

It was around 20,000 with many attendees being from out-of-state.
Hotels in the area had no vacancy for about a week.

[Deminpenn]

57. Did the Butler Eagle have a crowd

estimate?

Anyway, this was a big deal for the cult. I'm not surprised many turned out.

[lees1975]

93. I'd guess that this particular event, which was promoted as a "big deal" within the Trump cult, may have gathered

20,000 from that entire region. I lived 10 miles west of there for a decade, I can't imagine that many people in that location and it was reported that a lot of them started drifting out about 45 minutes into his droning monologue. I have a former employee and good friend who lives right around the corner, and she said the lines of cars were already streaming by within thirty minutes of him getting the microphone.

[TheRickles]

41. The second rally looks more like 800 than 8000. Are you sure about your numbers?

[Self Esteem]

47. You guys are crazy lol

Here's a crowd of about 800 people:



Some of you are just as bad as Trump at estimating crowd sizes lol

[obamanut2012]

71. that is not 8-10 k

[Self Esteem]

115. That is far closer to 8,000 than the Butler crowd is to 5,000 lmao

[Wiz Imp]

63. How about this article

Last edited Tue Oct 8, 2024, 04:02 PM - Edit history (1)

https://triblive.com/local/regional/trump-returns-to-butler-in-front-of-20000-reflecting-on-the-assassination-attempt-and-honoring-comperatore/

Trump returns to Butler in front of 20,000, reflecting on the assassination attempt and honoring Comperatore

----
About 21,000 filled the Butler Farm Show grounds, according to Blair County Sheriff James E. Ott, who spoke at the rally.
----

If someone who spoke there is saying there were 21000, you can be assured that the real crowd size was smaller than that (Trump campaign exaggerates ALL crowd sizes). Somebody who thinks there were 60,000 or 80,000 probably believes Trump's claim of 107,000 in Wildwood NJ earlier this year.

[obamanut2012]

68. that is not 8-10k, no way

[SomedayKindaLove]

128. Bronx crowd was estimated

At 2-3 thousand by Bronx police.

[Joe Cool]

35. Butler, PA resident here

It was around 20,000.

[Polybius]

16. 5,000?

Vastly more than that,

[Wiz Imp]

22. not really

[Polybius]

28. The lowest estimates show 20,000, the highest 80,000+

So yes, really.

[Joe Cool]

37. Butler, PA resident here. Not even close to 80,000

It was around 20,000. Trump supporters were making sh$t up about the rally numbers.

[Polybius]

50. Dave Pakman said it too

See the video. Just look at that crowd with your own eyes. We can no longer joke about him having tiny crowds. We must GOTV.

[Wiz Imp]

66. David Pakman is an idiot

If he believes there were anywhere close to 80,000 people there then he should never be listened to on anything again because that is crazy town. My own eyes see a video with a crowd nowhere near the high numbers you are reciting. You almost sound like Trump saying there were 107,000 people in Wildwood NJ.

Oh and 2 days before this event he wasn't able to even half fill a venue in Saginaw Michigan. So, yes, I will continue to joke about his tiny crowds. One larger crowd doesn't negate all the small crowds over the several previous weeks.

[BannonsLiver]

77. But you're supposed to be really really scared!

How can you not be scared by the imagery!?!1

[VMA131Marine]

84. This is 106,000 ish

Trumps rally is nowhere near 80% of this 15-20%, maybe

[Mr.WeRP]

7. Butler PA is close to Ohio

And I grew up in Ohio less than an hour from Butler. And Ohio is deep deep Trump country. So I suspect, that rally had a ton of people from NE Ohio as well as from the locals in the Butler area. This rally was also highlighted on several YT channels for the people streaming out of it during Ava Maria which Trump played awkwardly after his moment of silence for himself. Still, good to be cautious and wary. I do believe that, according to the polls (both National and State) that Biden was doing better than Harris is at this same time in the campaign. People were sick of Trump and sick of Covid and they generally have short memories.

[riversedge]

8. I think his concerns are legit!! It is scary-that the polls are so close in

so many states.

[Duncan Grant]

9. It's Butler county, not the entire state.

The best thing to be doing right now is GOTV. Control what you can control.

[Self Esteem]

10. Trump has been drawing large crowds the last few weeks.

The dwindling crowd narrative just isn't accurate anymore. The same arena in Flint that Harris spoke in last week, Trump also packed a couple weeks earlier:





This is a tight race. Enthusiasm is strong on both sides. I'm not sure why everyone is convinced this is going to be a romp. It's not. Pennsylvania is likely to be decided by a point. Michigan is going to be close. So will Wisconsin.

If Harris is the favorite, it's barely. Like, barely, barely.

People need to brace for a very tight election and even the possibility Trump wind because the odds of it happening are much greater than most here want to admit.

[BannonsLiver]

34. I'm bracing for a W

Sue me

[Self Esteem]

39. I'm bracing for a very close election night.

[BannonsLiver]

45. We won't know on election night

[Self Esteem]

48. Exactly. Because it's going to be extremely close.

[BannonsLiver]

75. The electoral college won't be close when all is said and done.

[Self Esteem]

114. Unfortunately, I think it will be.

Closer than 2020.

As of right now, I would not be shocked if she won 276-262.

[BannonsLiver]

119. Nah, it won't be that close

But I can understand how you might feel that way. It’s been irrationally doomy around here lately, which is why I get so much shit for my confidence. But I’m glad to have the blowback because it’ll make being right that much sweeter.

[Self Esteem]

120. I am not confident about GA and AZ - certainly not as confident as i was four years ago.

[Wiz Imp]

55. Your comments on Trump's crowds are not really true

He held an event in Wisconsin recently with a crowd of under 1000. His recent rally in Las Vegas showed the back half of the EXPO Center (the venue) completely empty. The crowd was estimated at 6000 in a venue that holds over 13,000. And less than a week ago in Saginaw Michigan he bragged about being the only person who could fill a rally at 3:00 in the afternoon at the very same time as video showed the place less than half full.

He may have drawn a couple slightly bigger crowds lately but he's had others (like Saginaw) which were very sparsely attended.

And this is from a couple months ago, but they peg Trump's average crowd size this year at 5,600, similar to the level in 2020 (but remember that was during the pandemic and he had 3 times as many events). They don't have numbers from 2016, but in 2017, his average crowd size was more than double what it is this year. Also, this was a short time after Harris became the candidate, so she hadn't had time to have many events yet, but they peg her average crowd size at 13,400 (over 6 events) which is 2 1/2 times Trumps typical crowd size.

https://ash.harvard.edu/articles/the-real-numbers-tracking-crowd-sizes-at-presidential-rallies/

I'll not comment on how concerned people should be about Trump winning, leaving that to others.

[RJ_MacReady]

148. sorry

But That's just not true. He hadn't been drawing many for awhile now and that trend continued yesterday. This is just more doomer posting.

[lindysalsagal]

11. That's just one tiny corner of a very large state.

Sure, tscf is enjoying lots of magat followers, but the women are pissed and are coming out to vote for their rights.

[birdographer]

111. What is tscf?

I know TSF, but don't know what the added C is.

[multigraincracker]

12. I wonder how the storm will affect voting in the So

Help or hurt us?

[Polybius]

20. Trump is up by 14 in Florida, according to a poll released today

https://www.realclearpolling.com/latest-polls

[calimary]

53. I still can't understand what the appeal is.

[obamanut2012]

70. He is not up by 13 in FLorida

[RJ_MacReady]

76. outlier

The NYT Siena college polls have been abysmal for a while. Not sure why people call them the "gold standard". Frankly polling in general seems to be a dead metric.

[Jack Valentino]

102. NY Times/Sienna poll is not worth citing for anything at all. They have been the out-liar

of outliars all year long... you might as well be citing Rasmussen!

That particular poll gives Trump +14 in Florida when everyone else is saying +4?? Ridiculous.

[Ferrets are Cool]

133. You are linking to a far right polling site.

[Polybius]

137. I liked to the NYT

I don't consider them far-right, but you're free to disagree.

[Ferrets are Cool]

138. Your link says realclearpolling, not New York Times.

[Polybius]

139. Yes, because that site lists various polls, some good, some bad

The top of that link directed to the NY Times poll.

[FakeNoose]

13. Chump will win the red counties, but he won't win the state

Biden won Pennsylvania in 2020, and Chump has way fewer voters this time than last.

There are a lot of R voters that don't want Chump back in the White House, but that's not to say that they'll vote for Kamala & Tim. Some will, but a bunch just won't vote at all.

We Democrats need to do our job and GET THE VOTE OUT and ignore these stupid rallies that Chump puts on.

[lees1975]

17. Every rally that Harris holds packs out a large venue.

Wanna bet that if she had a rally at the Butler Farm Show, where Trump had his, she'd draw as many people as he did? Even there? It's just a half hour from Pittsburgh. Allegheny County runs 65% Democrat and it's literally ten times the population of Butler County.

Pennsylvania is always close, but one thing that the media isn't reporting is the GOTV effort. I heard yesterday that Democrats completed a canvas of Walworth County in Wisconsin, having literally knocked on every door in the county, and that tends to lean a bit toward the GOP. I've been volunteering in Kenosha County, and I can't keep track of how many phone calls and door knocks that effort has made. Not hearing that Republicans are doing much of anything.

When I lived in Butler County in 2016, there wasn't much of a ground game there, Democrats conceded the turf. I hear the same reports from there, that in PA, the effort has enough volunteers to reach into multiple red counties to motivate Democratic voters there to turn out. Getting just 1% more will make a huge difference.

[Joe Cool]

29. Butler, PA resident here

In 2016, very few Clinton signs around Butler
In 2020, there were more Biden signs but not many more.
In 2024, there are Harris signs everywhere around Butler. Not as many as Trump signs, but way more than Biden in 2020.
The local Democratic party has been taking signs to Democrats in the area this year and you can notice the difference.

[FakeNoose]

94. Thanks Joe Cool - I get the same vibe

I live in the Pittsburgh city limits, and I've seen almost no Chump signs or banners anywhere. I drive out to Westmoreland County were my sister lives, and hardly any Chump signs out there either. A couple weeks ago I drove through Butler (southern part of the county) and saw a few signs, but nothing like 2020 and earlier.

Around me, people are showing a few Harris/Walz signs in front of their houses, and that's good. But you know what? We're ALL voting D this year, and there's no need to announce it to our neighbors because they're all voting D also.

[Polybius]

24. Chump has way fewer voters this time than last

I hope you're right, but I don't believe that. I believe that the election will be closer than in 2020. Please prove me wrong.

[Wiz Imp]

15. I saw a different video a couple days ago that showed a much smaller crowd

But let's assume this video shows the legit crowd. I wouldn't call it massive. Big, yes, but not that big. Apparently somebody on Facebook said there were 60,000 which is outrageously overestimated. I saw a quote from one of the speakers at the rally that said there were 20,000. Even that number is likely exaggerated (It came effectively from the Trump campaign and we know they exaggerate their crowd size numbers every time). Politifact fact checked a Facebook post and their conclusion was this:

We could find no official tally, but estimates from police, local news outlets and bus operators put the number of attendees between 10,000 and about 15,000.

Kamala has held multiple events in indoor arenas with just as big or bigger crowds. I have no idea why Pakman would freak out about this. He used the word massive but I look at that video and don't see anything close to what I would call massive. He also keeps quoting the RCP polling averages. RCP includes fake pollsters like Rasmussen in their averages (A Reminder that Rasmussen was recently proven to be working in tandem with the Trump campaign to rig the polling numbers they report). No serious person would trust anything from them.

[Joe Cool]

23. Butler, PA resident here

Crowd size was about 20,000 and many of the attendees were from out-of-state. Hotels in the area had no vacancy signs up for about a week before the rally.

[Joe Cool]

25. There were 10,000-15,000 at a rally of Trump's in Butler in 2020.

[WarGamer]

30. thats from 2020

[Joe Cool]

18. Butler, PA resident here

The rally was pretty much the main headline in local news sources for about a week. You couldn't get away from hearing about it in the local and Pittsburgh press. The assassination attempt and the return to the farm show grounds was the biggest story of the year in Butler.
If Trump only got around 20,000 (it seems like that was the approximate size), that's not saying very much. He can't say there were thousands of people waiting outside the venue because there weren't.
Harris has had 20,000 people at rallies. If the best Trump can do was get 20,000 for a rally on a near perfect day that had been hyped up for weeks, that's not saying very much.
I actually drove around Butler about the time the rally started and you would have thought it was a typical late afternoon Saturday in October in Butler. Many of the people at the rally were from out-of-state. Every hotel in the Butler area had no vacancy for about a week before the rally, which would indicate many rally goers were from out-of-state.
Trump had a rally at the Butler airport in 2020 and about 15,000 was the estimate for that rally.

As someone who is from and lives in Butler, the crowd size isn't something to be worried about. Some guy in a studio speaking into microphone who is nowhere close to Butler isn't the authority he thinks he is on the subject.

[helpisontheway]

21. Where is Shapiro? Thought he vowed to help Kamala and Walz?nt

[Joe Cool]

32. Butler, PA resident here

Parkman is talking out of his butt. He sits in a studio and talks into microphone. He has no idea what is actually going on in the field around Butler.
Read my other comments.

[Wiz Imp]

107. He's been making plenty of appearances campaigning for Harris/Walz

He was just in Philly on Sunday campaigning with 4 other eastern governors and the mayor of Philadelphia.

https://www.thedp.com/article/2024/10/penn-parker-shapiro-governors-harris-rally

[BannonsLiver]

26. I'd need to know more

Who are they? Is it mostly PA voters or a mix of cultists who made a weekend out of it and came to PA from other states? My favorite pro Putin troll and other pessimists seem to think it’s a big deal, but there are some unknowns here. Still, it’s a good crowd for him regardless though I have my doubts it means much in the grand scheme.

[kimbutgar]

31. Don't forget those maga groupies that travel to his rallies like deadheads

And don’t forget he also pays people to attend. Maybe he raised the wage for this appearance.

[Joe Cool]

42. Butler resident here

Hotels had no vacancy signs out for about a week before the rally.

[SWBTATTReg]

49. And like you say, in these relatively small towns, what few hotels will be booked solid since there aren't very many

places in little towns to stay at. I like your reporting, thanks for clarifying things. And yes, pakman is sitting at the end of a microphone, all day (or however long he is on there), and like you or some have said, being on the ground isn't the same thing/the same perspective.

And I suspect that tRUMP is desperate to show any 'massive' crowds, since he's been going on and on about the sizes after Kamala dinged on in the debate about his crowd size.

[Joe Cool]

62. There are more than just a few hotels in and around Butler.

It's not that small of a town and Butler County's population is over 200,000.

[Deminpenn]

142. Am not too far from Cranberry Township

in Butler county. It abuts the northeastern corner of Beaver county and is growing exponentially. Places like Seneca Valley, Mars and Seven Fields that were sleepy farming communities are now loaded with new housing developments. The Penguins now have their training facility in Cranberry and UPMC has several hospitals there. It's right off I-79 and the PA Turnpike so easy access from pretty much everywhere.

I think the area generally north of the City of Butler is still more open and rural, though.

[Bev54]

46. His campaign would get one of their donors to pay to "lift his spirits"

[Klarkashton]

40. People show up to those shitshows from all over the north east.

Particularly something like that.

[Bev54]

43. Whose drone took those shots? Because they won't let media or other drones because of

his past brush with a bullet. If it is Trump campaign drone, are we supposed to believe it? I realized just how cynical I have become, but I trust nothing about this man or his campaign.

[3825-87867]

91. Probably a Russian drone

like the ones Russia uses over Ukraine which they doctor to fake the Hometown Russians into thinking this is still only a three week war nearly three years later and over a couple hundred thousand of their sons dead now dead!

[H2O Man]

44. Recommended.

David is an intelligent man, and I respect his opinion.

[NoMoreRepugs]

51. I heard from my garbage man that the earth was in danger of tilting the crowd was so BIG.

[FSogol]

52. The ears on all the Trump statues will start to bleed as Trumpy descends into heaven on a golden escalator!

[BannonsLiver]

67. Wait, the photo doesn't terrify you?

I was told earlier today I was "euphoric" and "not in touch with reality" because I'm not terrified that PA is lost.

[Torchlight]

56. He sounds serious

Good luck!

[Freddie]

59. I'm terrified

My state is full of idiots.

[Pinback]

60. The Trump frenzy is real.

The Harris-Walz campaign does not have this in the bag, and it would be foolish to pretend that we can relax and start planning victory parties now.

Obviously, Trump and the Republicans lie about everything. The video footage Pakman uses is from Newsmax and Fox, so we’d be smart to question its validity.

But, still, there are a lot of suckers out there who think Trump is the Second Coming. And a whole lot of them live in Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.

It’s time for every Harris supporter to keep (or start) volunteering with your local Dem party, knocking on doors, making phone calls, sending postcards and letters, and encouraging family and friends to vote straight Dem — and don’t let up until the clock has run out.

When I read that we’re expanding the map to include Texas and Florida, it frankly gives me a queasy feeling. I remember when the Clinton campaign made (or pretended to make) a play for Utah(!), Arizona, and Georgia in 2016. (See https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/as-trump-stumbles-clinton-weighs-a-striking-choice-expand-the-map-or-stick-to-the-plan/2016/10/16/f0f77470-93a7-11e6-bb29-bf2701dbe0a3_story.html)

I’ve read since that this, especially in Utah, was probably a head-fake designed to get the Trump campaign to waste resources in solidly Red states. And, of course, Biden did win Arizona and Georgia in 2020, so maybe it wasn’t so crazy after all. But still…

Ultimately, I have to trust the Harris campaign team to know what they’re doing. They have experts like David Plouffe on board, so I presume they’re not ignoring swing states to chase after elusive votes in Texas and Florida.

But I have no control over any of that, and armchair quarterbacking and clicktivism aren’t going to win this thing for us.

[dobleremolque]

65. "clicktivism"

Stealing!

[Pinback]

74. Not my coinage, but a useful neologism.

Of course, here I am posting on a discussion board with fellow Dems, basically preaching to the choir instead of doing all the things I recommended — so I can’t exactly pretend I’m morally superior!

But in a bit I’m going to write another batch of cards to Ohio voters with Postcards To Voters (https://postcardstovoters.org/) urging them to vote for Sherrod Brown. That’s what eases my anxiety — doing something, no matter how small, for the 2024 effort.

[dobleremolque]

108. Good for you! We're doing postcards from

Hope Springs PAC ... newly registered Democratic and No Party Preference voters in AZ. Dropped the second batch in the mail this morning. Starting on batch #3 this afternoon.

[Demsrule86]

61. More doom and gloom,

[obamanut2012]

72. yup

[BannonsLiver]

85. Yup. Crow will be served the week of Nov. 5.

[Kingofalldems]

89. You mean "Bad Things About Democrats"?

I agree.

[obamanut2012]

101. ...

exactly

[Polybius]

118. Nah, I expect that Trump loses the election and PA too

I highly doubt that he wins, although my final prediction will come around November 1st.

[Demsrule86]

151. good to know.

[Polybius]

152. Honestly, the only thing that I'm very worried about is the Senate

I think we'll win the House too.

[RJ_MacReady]

64. meh

He doesn't get the crowds he used to and when he does they leave early. Harris gets bigger crowds and more consistently.

[RandySF]

79. Trump had the same Pa. crowds in 2020.

[Basso8vb]

80. We're being gaslit, folks.

That's 20,000 tops. For those of us who have ever been to a college football game, we know damn well what 80,000 looks like.

The only poll that matters is on election day.

[Ocelot II]

81. Why do we need to worry about what some obscure podcaster thinks?

Who the hell is David Pakman?

[obamanut2012]

86. I have no idea, either

[Basso8vb]

88. He's not new to the game and is usually pretty level headed.

Plus he has over 2.5 million subscribers on YouTube, which is not a trivial amount.

[obamanut2012]

92. Joe Rogan has more

I'm not comparing him to Rogan, but subscriber amount doesn't mean anything.

He is a business/MBA guy, so.

[RidinWithHarris]

82. Perhaps it's like people watching NASCAR hoping to see fiery crashes

The excitement of a possible copycat assassination attempt!

[vercetti2021]

83. I like David

But that looks piss poor in comparison to kamala's crowds. I really wish we wouldn't collectively shit our pants if we see something that might end up being a Doomer thing.

[Kingofalldems]

87. Oops:

Link to tweet

[3825-87867]

90. Maybe Pakman is from Lilliput

I spend a lot of time in Butler and have visited the Farm Show grounds many times (good food, no interest in livestock or what passes for music!) and know a few of those involved. Maximum attendees at their biggest shows were on the order of 15-20,000...but!!! that was for almost an entire 6 to 8 hour evening evening. Joe may be able to back me up on this but the grounds only "safely" holds around 12 to 15,000 at one time legally and that may be stretching it.
I've talked to a number of friends who went as curiosity led them. They aren't the type to embellish or not something like that just because it's a tramp event. Biggest estimate I got from about 12 of them was maybe, maybe 12 to 14,000. And as some said, VERY MANY were from Ohio and even from Erie and the Allegheny County Area which WILL go 85% plus for Kamala. So, the meaning is that maybe half (7 to 10,000) max are eligible Pa Voters who are crazy to vote for a racist, rapist anyway. Pakman is looking for clicks, imo, or is a really bad judge of crowd size. I've seen 25,000 plus out side a Steeler Stadium, that holds over 60,000, tail-gating waiting to get in and that was bigger by far than this.
Looking at it that way makes a big difference.
Of course, I could be wrong. But I think I may bet on the Election, at least here in Pa. based on this. Good odds.

[Deminpenn]

143. It's well known that some Trumpers are faithful

rally-goers, attending multiple rallies wherever they are, akin to Deadheads. I'm sure there were some of those in the crowd along with out of towners. Butler isn't too far from the red counties of NE Pa, western PA, and west central PA, eastern Ohio and the WVa northern panhandle

[IrishAfricanAmerican]

95. The crowd was about 20K but that was a special event.

This was trump's return to the scene of the crime speech. It attracted MAGA flies from around the country like they were doing a pilgrimage to Meca. This is not a regular trump event.

[LudwigPastorius]

140. The "fatal" wound to the beast was miraculously healed.

The whole earth was amazed and followed after the beast.

I mean, if you enjoy your historical eschatology...

[EarthFirst]

96. Over ONE event?

Meh.

[TheProle]

97. These aren't undecided voters, here or at VP Harris' rallies

Crowd numbers can be indicative of momentum and enthusiasm, but they are just really the candidates preaching to the converted.

[orange jar]

98. Tbh, I think relying on attendance on either side is a fool's errand.

Only the most diehard supporters of either candidate really attend these rallies. Not to mention that a portion of attendees probably act as groupies (as sad and pathetic as that might be) and just follow Trump/Harris/whoever across state lines.

I will say that the most concerning thing about this is that this is PA. However, most supporters of either candidate tend to be relatively quiet about it (remember: silent Trump supporters were a sizable portion of voters in 2016), and the minority who actually go to rallies tend to be the loudest supporters in general, so I would say: concern is ok, but rally attendance numbers should not be seen as some kind of measure of overall support. Enthusiasm, though, sure.

[Thrill]

99. Obama win Missouri?

[berkerly6240]

103. of course its a worry..no sane person wants to admit to voting for Trump..

so he's going to do better in the election than the polls where you dont have to tell anyone.

[Wiz Imp]

112. No proof of that

In fact, I've never met a MAGA cultist who wasn't proud to shout their total allegiance to Donald Trump to anyone within listening distance. These people have no shame. And if people were ashamed to admit to supporting Trump, then why did the polls for the Republican primary significantly over estimate his support (often by 10% or more)? Trump support was slightly underestimated in some polls in 2016 and/or 2020 due to faulty turnout models. I believe all pollsters have made adjustment for that since 2020. And since 2020, most polls have consistently underestimated Democratic support/turnout, many by significant margins.

[RJ_MacReady]

117. This

I dont get this continuing talking point of the "secret trump voter". These people are loud and proud to support their Nazi.

[obamanut2012]

116. Proof? Source?

[Ferrets are Cool]

134. Sorry but that makes no sense. You don't have to identify yourself to a poll worker.

[Bristlecone]

106. I take nothing for granted.

I remember 2016 and the sick feeling I had then.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

110. That looks fake as f*ck

Newsmax? Really?

[RJ_MacReady]

122. Yup

Almost looks AI generated.

[GenThePerservering]

121. Doesn't matter

GOTV!!!

[mcar]

123. Who?

[OthelloLover]

124. "Normally, I'd brush this off"

Yes, as proven by your long history of posting articles detrimental to Democrats.

[GP6971]

125. And this is your first post?

Welcome to DU...I guess.

[GP6971]

127. Are you referring to Pakman or

Polybius?

[Polybius]

136. How would you know if that was your first post?

[KS Toronado]

141. OthelloLover (1 post)

[RandiFan1290]

144. Thank you!

[ColinC]

126. GOTMFV

[DiamondShark]

145. I am genuinely concerned that Newsmax is being used in the video.

[RJ_MacReady]

146. The real crux

Isn't it? He can barely fill a high school gym anymore. Yet the doom sayers here its "clear we can't joke about that anymore".

[kerry-is-my-prez]

147. Harris has been only about on pt up or down there for a while.

N/t

[Sky Jewels]

149. The one in Reading (after this one) had lots of empty seats.

So the Butler rally was a one-off on crowd size.

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2024/10/9/2275830/-Discount-Goebbels-warms-up-a-less-than-full-house-Trump-rally-this-time-in-Reading-PA

[TBF]

150. IDK about PA, but TX is starting to come to life -

It's early October and both parties are starting to ramp up. Mostly local politicians, but I have seen a few Trump signs and bumper stickers (mostly driving through the heavy red suburbs nearby - my own area is purple).

My guess is that the Repub party itself is trying to get their faithful out to vote despite Trump. They will push him as "party first" despite his aging issues on full display. I don't think he has the enthusiasm that he had last time, or that it's anywhere near the excitement we've seen for Kamala at her rallies. The campaign strategy of highlighting key republicans crossing over to vote for Kamala is a good way to try to combat what I've seen from the party itself.