Blue Wall Blues

[angrychair]

An internal poll done by Democrat Tammy Baldwin’s Senate campaign last week showed Harris down by 3 percentage points in Wisconsin, while Baldwin was up by two points, according to a person familiar with the poll. The person said much of the narrowing is due to Republicans’ strength with noncollege-educated men. Public polling has shown Harris with a slight lead in the state.

Flame me all you want but we are repeating the same mistakes of 2016. I am at a lose to explain it. I don't understand the appeal. That does change the situation. We are wandering off chasing butterflies in Florida and Texas, even Georgia and Arizona for that matter, when we should be pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. And we should basically be living there.
The popular vote does not win this particular election, EV math does. That math says the states that matter most are Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania.

Reference: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/kamala-harris-struggling-to-break-through-with-working-class-democrats-fear-fe2038b8?st=xJ3Crs&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

[BannonsLiver]

1. DU is in a pessimistic mood today so it's unlikely you will get flamed.

And that’s coming from one of the forums 3 optimists.

[WarGamer]

2. There are optimists... there are pessimists...

[BannonsLiver]

3. Also trolls.

[angrychair]

5. It's not pessimism

That's the point. Best case we are even in a state that should be a slam dunk.
Polling over all is concerning. I don't understand it. I truly do not. I don't understand how people can listen to that man and say to themselves "yep, that's who I want".
I love Harris and I love her messaging but apparently the majority of people are not sure.
Apparently people want lies and dictators. Maybe we need to start being more authoritarian and degrading of people.
Or maybe if that is what the majority of people want out of a leader then we don't live in the country we think we do.

[Self Esteem]

4. It should definitely give people pause that it's an internal poll.

I don't know what to make of it. Wisconsin is a toss-up but I'm not sure if she's actually down three there.

The reality, though, is that if Harris loses Wisconsin by three, she's not winning the presidency. That would be an even larger shift than 2016 and likely take PA with it - maybe even MI.

It's also hard to know if this is a tactic Baldwin's team is putting out there to lessen complacency.

Regardless, Cook has now moved the state to a toss-up status in the senate, so they're definitely putting stock in this poll as I don't think there is one poll that has Baldwin losing.

[-misanthroptimist]

7. It's not an internal poll

It's a report about an anonymous claim about an internal poll. It may be accurate. It may be inaccurate.

Either way, there is work to do, so it changes little to nothing.

[Aepps22]

6. Aren't They Doing This?

Harris and Coach are very active in those states so not sure where you're getting the idea that they are repeating 2016. AZ and GA are worth the investment and given her financial resources not trying to compete everywhere is a mistake.

[angrychair]

8. Obviously not enough

If we are, best case, even in Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania. Tim Walz should do nothing but campaigning in that state non-stop until election day.

[oasis]

9. MSNBC reported a lead pipe replacement in

Milwaukee $$$$$ from Pres. Biden’s infrastructure package underway.
That’s gotta be worth a few thousand votes by itself, depending upon the impact of local coverage.

[BigDemVoter]

10. Maybe we are behind...

But I cannot see it is because of « same mistakes from 2016. »

We have been battling extreme media bias & other bullshit. I actually think the Harris Campaign has done a good job & is well-organized.

[asm128]

11. Internal polling isn't magically better than other polling

https://theweekinpolls.substack.com/p/the-misleading-mystique-of-internal

"...But if they tell a significantly different story from the public polls, that is almost always because they are wrong.'

[NewHendoLib]

12. 538 aggregate has WI Harris +2

[lees1975]

13. I've been helping volunteer in Wisconsin.

Rumors of "internal polls" and "polling data just dropping" and all of that is common. I know what is being used in the HQ to track what we're seeing and I don't recall any talk of a "internal" poll from Baldwin. Hearsay.

On the ground, Democrats are pulling off a ground game like none I've ever seen. We're running out of doors to knock the first time, and headed toward round 2. I heard last night, on Patty Vasquez program out of Chicago, that volunteers for the Democrats have knocked on every door in Walworth County, that's southwest of Milwaukee, and usually goes Republican. If that's happening elsewhere in Wisconsin, then the better numbers for Harris and Baldwin are probably more accurate.

But gosh, don't we love to chew our fingernails and clutch our pearls.

[standingtall]

14. If there are in of 3 blue wall States we can afford to lose it's Wisconsin

not that think we should, but Wisconsin is on 10 electoral votes and it's been trending right for over a decade now. While Georgia was a reliably red State now a swing State and seems destined to at least become a light blue State once it reaches the tipping point. As long as we win Michigan and Pennsylvania winning any of the following Georgia,North Carolina or even Arizona will not only offset the loss of Wisconsin, but net us electoral votes. Not just about this election, but future elections to, because rust belt States are no longer reliable for us and our base is moving South and West. I don't what's going to happen in this election cycle in Wisconsin, but it's going to be close.

[Emrys]

15. WHAT IS THE MARGIN OF ERROR OF THE POLL?

Sorry for the all caps, but this gets exasperating when it has to be repeated so often.

Any poll made public that doesn't cite its N, preferably some details about its methodology, and its margin of error is just hot air.

Coverage of any poll that doesn't cite at least its margin of error is bilge.

Consider yourself flamed if you wish.

[Jack Valentino]

17. This isn't even a publicly released poll, it's a "rumor about a poll"

rumor from an unidentified source....

[PeaceWave]

16. Kamala had only a small brief bump in the polls after the convention...

That is now gone. Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are all a mess. There is a very real possibility of her winning the popular vote but getting swept in all seven swing states. Trump is tying her to Biden and it seems to be working.