General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsTomorrow is going to be an historic moment for this country.
The destruction that is going to happen in FL will be horrific in scale of lives and infrastructure lost. COL is going to go up for the rest of us. This is the future that Al Gore warned us about. And Republicans ran against climate change. They have lost and so will we.
liberal N proud
(61,194 posts)I asked him 3 times to consider evacuating to our house. He says they have a safe place. He has ridden out other storms.
They had 2 ft of water in their house from Halene. I just cant imagine what the next 24/48 hours is going to do.
We love the Tampa area and the beaches, our daughter and her husband lived there for several years.
We have other acquaintances in the area and have offered our home as a safe place.
Never know when it is going to happen to us.
OAITW r.2.0
(32,116 posts)In the 90s, I was down there a lot. A 15 foot tide surge is going to devastate Tamp, St. Pete's and Sarasota.
Gore1FL
(22,951 posts)Beautiful place.
global1
(26,507 posts)I believe it's inland a bit - but I'm not exactly sure.
Are they in harms way?
How close is it to Tampa?
snowybirdie
(6,682 posts)But all bets are off I'd a river or creek is,near their community.
BeneteauBum
(482 posts)They are probably over 80 miles from Anna Maria island where landfall is currently forecast. They may get winds 60-70 mph. Further, if they are more than ten feet above sea level, the storm surge along that area is predicted at 6-10.
My three daughters in the Tampa area evacuated with their families. My Keys floating home is basically immune to storm surge but high winds and under prepared vessels are the big danger.
I hope all my fellow Floridians stay safe
..and dont let DeSantis hear you say Climate Change. You may get a visit from his private Gestapo.
Peace ☮️
abbeyco
(1,581 posts)Sorry, I cant comprehend this right now. My friend has a shop there & was still clearing from Helene. Im still reeling from the WNC devastation from Helene. If AMI is directly hit, everything will be wiped out
BeneteauBum
(482 posts)Milton is forecast to make landfall in about six hours. Winds are currently 130mph sustained. It appears the the eye will pass within 25 miles of AMI with winds of 111-130mph. All my Tampa area friends and family have evacuated. It wont be pretty. I wish your friend the best of luck!
Peace ☮️
abbeyco
(1,581 posts)She was out yesterday with family & 3 pets. All are safe for the time being & sending karma and high paws for everyone in the path.
AZ8theist
(7,360 posts)Their house is exactly 8.6 miles from the gulf.
Their county is under mandatory evacuation orders, but they are staying put.
They retired there years ago and every hurricane since has skirted their location.
That's why they, along with multiple neighbors in their development are staying. They think it's no big deal, but they've never had one hit head-on.
I hope they are safe. Could not convince them to leave.
bdamomma
(69,532 posts)it's an extremely a dangerous decision. These hurricanes are stronger and last longer. I wouldn't take that chance. But that's me.
I hope they find themselves safe.
AZ8theist
(7,360 posts)Native
(7,358 posts)8.6 miles puts them on the east side on highway 19, which shouldn't be in the evac zone. there may be pockets of low lying wetland areas tho.
Native
(7,358 posts)AZ8theist
(7,360 posts)Native
(7,358 posts)Katinfl
(806 posts)Small world. I feel a lot better since we are no longer in the cone.
kerry-is-my-prez
(10,268 posts)The water level could flood out place a bit. We live near a canal. There is a little lake that is several inches away.
Katinfl
(806 posts)Pasco, Hernando, Citrus?
Katinfl
(806 posts)I also live in the area. I am about 16 miles from the Gulf. If they are in a manufactured home and have been told to evacuate, they really should. My home was built in 2004 and we just put a new roof on. We feel quite secure so we have stayed put for the last 20 years. If they are in a flood zone, told to evacuate they are stupid not to.
camartinwv
(148 posts)8.6 miles from the gulf should be far enough to avoid the surge.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)If they haven't actually experienced a deadly storm like this, they have no clue.
I recall reading decades ago, possibly as early as the late 1970s, that sea rise alone, even without storms like these, will devastate most of the Florida Coast. And that because so many newcomers move there every year, there are always too many newbies who just don't get it.
Edit: even with is in italics fro emphasis.
Native
(7,358 posts)im in that area too.
Katinfl
(806 posts)Native
(7,358 posts)Katinfl
(806 posts)Native
(7,358 posts)We have lost contact with a few people over politics. No arguments, we just know where they are parked so we drifted apart mutually.
Native
(7,358 posts)Katinfl
(806 posts)The area is not in the cone. We are about 45 miles north of Tampa, about 16 miles from the coast, and we are 69 above sea level, so we sit pretty high. We will get strong winds and rain but we should be OK. We have lived here 20 years and we have been safe each time. Hope our luck holds out. Your friends should be OK but these hurricanes are never fun. Plan for the worst and hope for the best.
RidinWithHarris
(790 posts)They're definitely elevated enough to not worry about the storm surge, but it is going to get damned wet and windy there. They have not been told to evacuate.
MontanaMama
(24,721 posts)are like nothing Ive ever seen. At one point mid-day today there were 14 tornadoes on the ground.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)I used to live in "Tornado Alley" and I don't think I ever heard of that many on the ground at once.
Shudder.
MontanaMama
(24,721 posts)at some point but I have no link to that. It was stunning to listen to the live coverage. I fear for Florida.
YessirAtsaFact
(2,113 posts)He may be okay.
I suspect he's going to get more than 2 feet of water in his house, but it should be survivable.
OTOH, if this thing jogs a bit north and St. Pete gets a direct his, God help him.
littlemissmartypants
(33,480 posts)The USCG spokesperson said that if a situation is such that they, the rescuers, are at risk of death or serious injury they will wait for conditions to improve.
In other words, you can call but they may make you wait if they can even get there at all.
The other consideration is death by drowning is one of the most horrific ways to die. It's like having pneumonia with lungs full of fluid. But worse.
You cant breathe and reflexes force you to inhale.
When you are under water the more water you inhale the more your reflexes will force you to inhale. You will know that you can't do anything because your reflexes take over. Then you panic.
If someone doesn't save you quickly, you suffocate, on water.
It may be a long time before your brain shuts down due to lack of oxygen. This will then force your other internal organs to fail, one by one.
You may know that you are dying.
Suffocating and suffering.
PLEASE FOLLOW LOCAL EVACUATION ORDERS.
PERIOD.
IF YOU DON'T
YOU DISRESPECT YOUR PUBLIC SERVANTS
THOSE WHO ARE TRYING TO KEEP YOU SAFE
AND ALIVE
BUT MOST OF ALL YOU DISRESPECT YOURSELF
AND EVERYONE DEPENDING ON YOU
LIKE YOUR SPOUSE, YOUR PARTNER
OR YOUR ELDER PARENTS
AND YOUR CHILDREN.
PLEASE, FOLLOW LOCAL EVACUATION ORDERS.
PLEASE.
❤️
(I'm directing this message to everyone. Not meaning to single anyone out.)
bullimiami
(14,075 posts)Same water from Helene.
They will evacuate this one.
We all grew up in Miami. We know.
crud
(1,256 posts)I lived there in 1978. Rented roach infested studio apt. for about 6 months.
Backseat Driver
(4,671 posts)I sure hope she evacuated; she wanted Milton to just go away, but no posts since my comment...
rzemanfl
(31,357 posts)disaster.pinellas.gov A,B,&C are under evacuation orders.
demotux
(95 posts)...right now, adults are in the White House. Just imagine Russian Agent Orange being at the helm... 😱
woodsprite
(12,582 posts)Jk23
(455 posts)We might be seeing another Ian, Irma, Charlie scenario where the storm veers towards Ft Myers at the last minute.
tavernier
(14,443 posts)He went through the eye of Ian in a friends house. This year he has a girlfriend who lives in Cape Coral. We have invited her and her entire family to come to Keys and stay with us. They declined because they want to stay home. Grandson in tears wanted to stay with her but his dad said, no way. Come home or we will come and get you. He is on his way home now. I know he will be miserable the whole time but I really dont care. I am just glad he wont be there.
PS- I love her too and wish her family had encouraged her to leave. Lets all take a deep breath and blow this MF back out to sea.
💙 L
Jk23
(455 posts)I hope everyone down there stays safe.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)I hope his g-f and her family are okay.
that thought gets me sick, he would call it a hoax or the migrants did it. No empathy whatsoever
Yes, we have adults at the helm.
Coventina
(29,716 posts)Nothing to worry about!!
H2O Man
(79,037 posts)I agree 100%. And I anticipate it getting worse every year.
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)Were getting one or two a year which is below average. The numbers have improved on how many hurricanes.
H2O Man
(79,037 posts)But climate change is creating problems beyond Florida.
dpibel
(3,933 posts)They are really probative!
Thank you so much for the steely minded analysis and reassurance.
It's good to have someone to count on!!!1!
Strelnikov_
(8,167 posts)Still a Cat 4 to 5 at 24 hr out, this would be 6 hr prior to landfall.
It is going to be pushing a lot of water, regardless of peak wind at landfall.
Wish I knew a source for IKE (integrated kinetic energy) estimates, which provides a better picture of the power of a cyclone. May be this can only be calculated after the fact.
Agree, this does not look good.
BumRushDaShow
(169,587 posts)From the Multi platform satellite wind analysis discussed above a flight level (~ 700 hPa) Kinetic Energy is calculated within 200km of the cyclone center. The calculated KE is then categorized (0-5) so that their probability distribution is identical to the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale (0-5). The KE is then plotted versus the maximum surface wind from these same wind analysis and provided every six hours. Tropical cyclones tend to grow as they weaken, but this is not always the case and large storms typically have larger values of KE and thus are more destructive when they affect land. This product allows the real-time monitoring of the potential destructive potential of a given storm and allows inter comparison with past events either produced on this web page or from actual flight level wind data. The methods for calculating and categorizing the KE as well as analyses of several past events are described in Maclay et al. (2008).
The above mentions that it is baked into the Wind Analysis plot.
I forgot where I had seen it but may have skimmed through discussions of IKE when monitoring Hurricane Dorian (which was a nasty one like this).
multigraincracker
(37,637 posts)to adapt to a changing environment?
Bout to find out.
AZ8theist
(7,360 posts)Is there any doubt homo sapiens will go extinct? It's just a matter of when......
Frasier Balzov
(5,054 posts)JoseBalow
(9,474 posts)And they also said it's impossible
For a man to live and breathe underwater
I can hear Atlantis full of cheer
SWBTATTReg
(26,257 posts)different climates, Eskimos in Alaska and other points north, Islanders across the Pacific and Hawaii adapting to life on small islands w/ their limited resources, and herders in Siberia and Steppes w/ their horses and animals, as well as the Indians in North America and the Incas, Mayans in Central and South America
There was a point in history where the human race did shrink down to roughly 80,000 individuals, when they think a volcano blew it's top, and changed the climate across the globe.
onandup
(701 posts)in damage this year.
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)calimary
(89,975 posts)Last edited Tue Oct 8, 2024, 11:09 PM - Edit history (2)
IF YOU CAN. Cuz those of us not in the path of a hurricane will be worried and WILL want to know if youre okay and how youre doing.
I realize youll have to hunker down, and youll be super-focused on some very basic stuff. But IF you can, please send a brief reply and let us know how you are.
IF YOU CAN. But ONLY IF you can, cuz youre not in danger.
But if you ARE or MIGHT BE in danger, then take care of yourself first! Well understand. We can wait.
Take no risks. Just be safe.
Upthevibe
(10,175 posts)I agree.
This is EXACTLY what Al Gore has spoken about. Here we are. And the Republican are stilldenying climate change...
Wednesdays
(22,579 posts)Rather than denying climate change, they're saying Democrats are causing the hurricanes. With a weather machine. Or something.
Thomas Hurt
(13,982 posts)Evolve Dammit
(21,768 posts)catchnrelease
(2,151 posts)The person was saying that all this time the Rs have been denying that climate change is caused by humans. Now they're saying that humans can control the weather. Ok which is it you idiots?
Katinfl
(806 posts)TBF
(36,638 posts)here in Houston they are very specific about who they want to evacuate. During Ike they completely closed the highway to Galveston Island after the mandatory evacuation (which local authorities handled w/the help of the national guard). Once they close it down you are on your own until the storm has made its way through and they decide to reopen. There won't be anyone to call if you change your mind. The ideal time to leave is a few days before, with a full tank of gas and cash from ATM. If you're close to the water & supposed to be evacuating now I'd get out of there if at all possible.
Botany
(77,304 posts)OSU Professor Lonnie Thompson has millions of data points some going back >400,000 years
showing the links between atmospheric CO2 and the climate and Al Gore got some of the re-
search from Dr. Thompson. We were told this was going to happen.
Amaryllis
(11,271 posts)OAITW r.2.0
(32,116 posts)captain queeg
(11,780 posts)jimfields33
(19,382 posts)LymphocyteLover
(9,832 posts)and seriously, we couldn't do ANYTHING with Republicans blocking climate solutions
4lbs
(7,395 posts)The military in FL has been spending millions to help their bases weather hurricanes, floods, and tornadoes for at least the last 5 years and maybe the past decade.
They have to deal in the "real world" effects of such events, not play politics with peoples' lives.
https://www.nbcnews.com/science/environment/destruction-florida-air-force-base-rebuilds-face-effects-climate-chang-rcna43091
After destruction, Florida Air Force base rebuilds to face effects of climate change
Sept. 24, 2022, 5:14 AM PDT
By Lucas Thompson
Tyndall Air Force Base was hammered by a Category 5 hurricane. Now, rebuilding efforts are focusing on how to ensure it's ready for future storms.
https://www.armytimes.com/opinion/commentary/2021/11/03/climate-change-poses-great-risk-for-floridas-military-bases/
Climate change poses great risk for Floridas military bases
By Kevin Green
Nov 3, 2021
https://www.defense.gov/News/News-Stories/Article/Article/3510772/hicks-defines-need-to-focus-dod-on-climate-change-threats/
Hicks Defines Need to Focus DOD on Climate Change Threats
Aug. 30, 2023 | By Jim Garamone, DOD News
As Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks spoke to West Point cadets today about climate change and the military, the Category 3 Hurricane Idalia slammed ashore in Florida.
https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/2021/11/02/floridas-military-bases-are-some-of-the-most-vulnerable-to-climate-change-column/
Floridas military bases are some of the most vulnerable to climate change
Published Nov. 2, 2021
The United States has ignored climate change and its impacts on outdated, inadequate infrastructure for far too long.
https://www.npr.org/2021/10/26/1049222045/the-pentagon-says-climate-change-is-having-a-negative-impact-on-national-securit
Climate change is a risk to national security, the Pentagon says
Updated October 26, 20216:09 PM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
By Noel King
https://www.nbcnews.com/think/opinion/u-s-military-terrified-climate-change-it-s-done-more-ncna1240484
The U.S. military is terrified of climate change. It's done more damage than Iranian missiles.
Sept. 20, 2020, 1:30 AM PDT
By Sébastien Roblin
Among the Pentagon's fears is that weather-related catastrophes could mean it has to commit most of its resources to disaster relief missions.
OAITW r.2.0
(32,116 posts)4lbs
(7,395 posts)Living underground like Morlocks because the surface becomes untenable.
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)It was inhabited by the Eloi, descendants of the privileged classes.
The surface is untenable when the Time Traveller goes some 800,000 years into the future he finds those conditions.
4lbs
(7,395 posts)I'm referencing the 1960 movie, starring Rod Taylor and Yvette Mimieux.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Time_Machine_(1960_film)
A disillusioned George then travels to August, 1966. People are rushing to fallout shelters as air raid sirens are blaring. An elderly James Filby urges George to take cover. George barely makes it back to his time machine as an "atomic satellite" detonates, destroying London and causing a local volcanic eruption that buries the ruins. The approaching lava rises, cools, and hardens, trapping George as he travels far into the future, waiting for the rock to erode. Eventually the lava wears away, revealing a lush, unspoiled landscape.
The only thing that gets me is that it and many other movies of the time, didn't follow logic. So... he goes 800,000 years into the future, but everyone there speaks PERFECT ENGLISH. Mmm-kay.
Imagine how much English has changed from Old English to current English, in less than 1500 years (look at the poem Beowulf as an example), yet going 800,000 years, nothing has changed with the language.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Beowulf
Beowulf (/ˈbeɪəwʊlf/; Old English: Bēowulf [ˈbeːowuɫf]) is an Old English epic poem in the tradition of Germanic heroic legend consisting of 3,182 alliterative lines. It is one of the most important and most often translated works of Old English literature. The date of composition is a matter of contention among scholars; the only certain dating is for the manuscript, which was produced between 975 and 1025 AD. Scholars call the anonymous author the "Beowulf poet".
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)You're quite right about the language thing. I've long thought that living forever, or even a very very long time would be problematical precisely because of language change. We already know that adult brains learn new languages far less readily than young ones. So now you're two thousand years old, and you're current place has been overrun and now you need to try to learn yet another new one.
JoseBalow
(9,474 posts)BluenFLA
(229 posts)You had to run off with your mantra that climate change was a hoax or wanted your imaginary riches from the tax cuts that only benefited the wealthy and make fun of us for sounding the alarm.
Now we all have to pay for their greed and willfull ignorance. But the sad part is that they still refuse to acknowledge how we screwed the planet and are reaping what we have sown.
claudette
(5,455 posts)would want to live there is beyond my understanding. Why willfully put yourself in danger?
Funtatlaguy
(11,878 posts)At least it was
Helene was horrible but survivable. Lets hope Milton is also
My heart goes out to those in peril there.
jimfields33
(19,382 posts)Why would people living in California when they know an earthquake is going to destroy the state eventually. Mother Nature is in charge no matter where you live.
claudette
(5,455 posts)I was just expressing my wonder as to why put yourself in KNOWN danger. Its just something I wouldnt do. Doesnt make me any better than those that do. Just shows Im not brave.
I Personally wouldnt either. But some were born in Tampa and its all they know. They never experienced a direct hit by anyone alive today (or darn close to it.). Its a risk that worked for 100 years until it didnt.
As you said. You never know what Mother Nature has in store no matter where you live. We have severe snow storms in this region but nothing compared to the damage of wind and water of hurricanes or tornadoes
dpibel
(3,933 posts)California is a pretty big state. You should look it up!
What is your source for the proposition that "an earthquake is going to destroy the state eventually"?
"Better get ready to tie up your boats in Idaho" doesn't count.
I think you went a bit overboard with this one. Not up to your usual standards.
lark
(26,078 posts)The small remainder of my dad's family lives there, all the uncles and aunts have passed and most of my cousins (not a healthy family, diabetes and lung issues are rampant) are gone too. Sarasota has lots of old small homes and old trees and I know my cousin that remains and my 2nd cousin and her family live in the older less expensive part of town. Praying for all the folks in the storms' path.
Surprisingly, the storm report I saw last night had Jax beng hit with hurricane force winds - I sure hope that is wrong. It would be the first time in 60 years and only the 2nd time in recorded history that Jax got hit with hurricane force winds, the last was Dora in '64 and that was awful for this town. A lot of people have evacuated here. I wish they had gone into western GA because I worry about it being safe here. Of course, it's lots safer than the Tampa/StPete/Ft Meyers area where it is likely to be totally catastropic.
Clouds Passing
(7,916 posts)LetMyPeopleVote
(179,716 posts)malaise
(295,998 posts)Ron Green
(9,870 posts)has changed this planet and its systems. Were now experiencing the effects, especially due to the past couple of hundred years.
And yet the politicians, even our favorite ones, still talk about jobs and economic growth.
Red Raider 85
(138 posts)OAITW r.2.0
(32,116 posts)I know, "an" used when the next word starts with a vowel. Is that your only problem with my post?
XanaDUer2
(15,772 posts)Now I know
OAITW r.2.0
(32,116 posts)In fact, I'm not changing it because it sounds OK to me.
XanaDUer2
(15,772 posts)In sticking with an
PoindexterOglethorpe
(28,493 posts)An eskimo. An old thing.
"a" before a word that starts with a consonant: a brick.
Also in front of words where the h is pronounced. Hence, a historic. Unless you pronounce it istoric.
A helping hand.
A hopeful sign.
A heart attack.
paleotn
(22,204 posts)dpibel
(3,933 posts)In British English, it's "an historic," because the Brits tend not to voice the initial "h."
Oddly, the result is that people who have, for instance, read a bunch of Brits in their college English courses, are more likely to make this error.
English is a puzzle, even for native speakers.
Swede
(39,465 posts)nt