538 just moved PA from Harris+1 to EVEN

[Plectranthus]

We are toast

[Magoo48]

1. Absolute bullshit.

[Emile]

2. I know better than this. BS

[displacedvermoter]

3. Stop it

Jeezus, this shit is annoying!

[obamanut2012]

6. Look at their profile, they need to be ffred now

[MarineCombatEngineer]

23. Pizza has been served to that troll.

[obamanut2012]

24. Yes! Thanks for the update!

[Rstrstx]

4. Umm, just looked, it's Harris +0.6

And don’t freak out too much because it was Harris +0.4 on October 4.

It has been and likely will stay a virtual tie as far as polling goes for some time, we are just seeing statistical noise that you would expect in a close race. It is up to us to get this done.

[a kennedy]

39. and i'm hoping lotsa Repubs will vote for Harris.......

and those folks aren’t being counted in either poll at this time.

[obamanut2012]

5. 69 posts since 2020 and you come and post this -- MIRT

Mirt!

[Tickle]

17. good eye NT

[obamanut2012]

25. There have been A LOT of them the past couple weeks

And another one in this thread.

[Tickle]

40. I've noticed the same behavior, even in the short time I've been here.

They often approach with complaints, typically after encountering negative information about our side. Their motives seem clear, and I'm concerned they may begin to cause disruptions as the election draws nearer. While it’s not something I take pride in, I’ve developed a certain level of distrust, which I believe can sometimes be necessary in situations like this.

[RobinA]

47. So, 538 Does NOT Have

PA dead even?

[lees1975]

51. No.

They've dropped a couple of red flag polls into their average, and shortened the previous list.

Three most recent polls have her up by 4 in PA.

[Groundhawg]

7. No we are not toast.

[PCIntern]

9. She is going to win PA by 5 points.

[PeaceWave]

57. That's pretty optimistic.

[Torchlight]

8. Sounds pretty serious, man.

Good luck.

[kerouac2]

10. Illusory truth effect. Lies delivered to ignorant masses

Have to face the fact that Trump, Vance and gop are relentless in their consistent lies, bulleted for ease of consumption and focused on the top issues that folks are susceptible to like Economy, immigration, safety and taxes, plus race/gender attacks on harris. Most folks don't look into anything past the sound bytes and have right wing radio and fox.

Calling them weird worked. Need to pummel them with simple tag lines cuz the truth is worse or equal to their lies. Worst president ever, vp wears eye shadow, china bibles, senile weak old man, traitor, putins puppet, etc.

Trump knows what he's doing. Their lies work. And he only really needs to do it in a few states.

According to research, a lie only needs to be repeated a few times for someone to start believing it, as the concept of the "illusory truth effect" shows that simply hearing a statement multiple times can make it seem more truthful, even if it's false; the exact number of repetitions needed varies depending on the individual and situation, but even a couple of repetitions can have a significant impact.

[obamanut2012]

11. Another one:less than 500 posts in 14 years

And you come doompost

[MarineCombatEngineer]

14. Been noticing this about a lot of newbies and low post count "DUer's" here lately.

Makes one go hmmm, what have we got here.

[RobinA]

48. None Newbies

who are concerned don't post for the most part. Learned that in 2016.

[Oopsie Daisy]

16. You're correct! I had not noticed. --- What a bizarre phenomenon. I wonder what it means. 🤡

[kerouac2]

22. It means I haven't been posting ..

Much. Used to alot as Kerouac from when du started but lost the email, made kerouac2 and mostly come to read.

Replies like these about my post count really make me want to post again though. Not.

[obamanut2012]

26. That isn't what it means

[Oopsie Daisy]

42. Obviously.

[kerouac2]

19. Omg seriously...

Gimme a break. Not a doom post. Reality. They lie well. That clear enough for you.

[kerouac2]

20. Do replies count towards post count?

If so, I can rack up a bunch with needless replies calling people out for their post counts.

[kerouac2]

21. Yup they do.

Look at that bud, got two more. Ridiculous.

[obamanut2012]

28. lol

[Mossfern]

35. I do agree with you

I'm trying to get my post count up to 3,000 by election eve. It's just a personal challenge for me. I've been here for quite a while and lost my user name as well - because I couldn't remember my password for the email account I initially registered with. I can try to access it, but it would be a pain in the neck.

I visit here every day - sometimes for hours. I don't post that much and I do marvel at people who's post counts are in the several thousands.

[kerouac2]

50. Thx. I used to post way too much lol

Had a similar site to DU when Gore got robbed. Used same website system too, but pretty sure that forum system isn't supported anymore. I had fewer members but it was just awful with the nasty posts. Shut it down for the sake of my own sanity and redirected it to DU til the domain expired. Just posted here instead. I still don't like when folks get flamed because they don't have a lot of posts or maybe because they're freaking out from a poll they saw. Lots of people don't post but visit every day multiple times and are not trolls.

[obamanut2012]

27. lol

[TwilightZone]

31. You might want to read it again.

It doesn't say what you seem to think it does. It's explaining why people believe Trump's bullshit and provides several examples of how that should be countered.

Calling them weird worked. Need to pummel them with simple tag lines cuz the truth is worse or equal to their lies. Worst president ever, vp wears eye shadow, china bibles, senile weak old man, traitor, putins puppet, etc.

[obamanut2012]

33. I don't need to read it again, and I never said what I even thought they meant

This reply to me has nothing to do with anything I said?

[bluesbassman]

12. Come December there needs to be a National reconning with our addiction to polls.

They have become manipulated, skewed, and distorted to the point of being utterly untrustworthy on the whole and the source of much confusion and angst among the electorate.

Much like the legacy media.

[MarineCombatEngineer]

13. Just stop this bullshit.

Welcome back to DU, I think.

[BannonsLiver]

37. There is another long game troll who has been here since 2021

You’ll find them unskewing positive Harris polls and promoting a Russia centric view of history both recent and not so recent.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. Harris still leads in PA

Several GOP polls were added to the average, but she's still ahead.

[cadoman]

18. I see Harris ahead in nearly every poll, even on right wing 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/

Trashing this trash thread.

[peggysue2]

29. Nonsense

538 is an aggregate with a number of 'questionable' polls included. It's one of the problems right now with so many Republican trash polls deliberately thrown into the mix.

We're not toast. We're not even close to toast because we're going to win this thing.

[marmar]

30. You are obvious.

Which indicates MAGAworld is panicked.

[Jersey Devil]

32. White Bean & Artichoke Avocado Toast?

Or, maybe toast with Cinnamin or just butter?

[BannonsLiver]

34. I want to vomit, and not because of the poll.

[sarisataka]

36. PPR- seems you are toast

[Emile]

55. +1

[Tribetime]

38. ....

[LexVegas]

43. Bye. nt

[tritsofme]

44. What a dumb thread.

[lees1975]

45. That's because there are two big red flag polls being averaged into the data.

Trafalgar, which has Trump at +2 in PA, and the Republican PAC in PA, Sentinel Action, which has her even. Oh, and there's Insider Advantage, another very right leaning poll. Take those out and that leaves 3 with her leading by 1, and two with her leading by 4. There's a very large Redfield and Wilson, also a Republican leaning poll, over 5,000 in the sample, where she's +1. I don't know how they get their half-percent margin with the total number in the samples leaning heavily in the direction of three polls showing a trend up to +4, but I don't trust this aggregate to be anywhere close to accurate. Patriot is also a GOP youtube channel poll. So it looks to me like it's Harris, +2 at least, with this limited data. Of course, the Philadelphia Inquirer poll, where she's +4, has been ignored here. And I tend to think they've got a better fix on where it is than anyone else does.

Don't sweat it. She's going to win in PA by somewhere between 120,000 and 150,000 votes.

[ornotna]

46. Yep. might as well give up

[kentuck]

49. They must have polled Pennsyltucky?

I imagine there are a lot of similar Trump supporters in Kentucky and West Virginia. They are deep within the cult.

[Jersey Devil]

62. LOL, you reminded me of a vacation long ago

We went to Pennsylvania Dutch country for a week and my youngest kid, maybe 4-5 at the time, told one of the Amish shop owners we met that he was happy to be in "Pennsylpenis" for vacation.

[krawhitham]

52. The polling is starting to look BAD, and everyone seems to just stick their heads in the sand. Unskew the Polls next?

Lets hope this weeks PR blitz helps because it's moving the wrong direction

[RJ_MacReady]

53. what world are you living in?

[krawhitham]

54. This world

[RJ_MacReady]

56. not credible.

Do you also hold that we can't joke about trumps dwindling crowds either?

[Jersey Devil]

60. These polling changes are so small they may merely be statistical noise

Give me some info that says Repubs are doing better in GOTV efforts and I will start worrying. Or a trend in the polls that continues for 2-3 weeks. But, sheesh, freaking out over one round of polls with very small changes is over the top.

[Initech]

58. I am so sick of the fucking polls I want to throw my monitor out the window.

[Sugarcoated]

59. Yes, one candidate is toast.

And it ain't Harris

[Stinky The Clown]

61. Go away