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nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
900 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION THIS MORNING...
...900 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life
and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are
in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible
flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.
Another position update will be provided at 1000 AM EDT (1400 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 900 AM EDT...1300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 84.6W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 230 MI...365 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...918 MB...27.11 INCHES
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1000 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...ENSURE YOU ARE IN YOUR SAFE LOCATION BEFORE THE ONSET OF
STRONG WINDS OR POSSIBLE FLOODING...
...1000 AM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
Now is the time to rush to complete all preparations to protect life
and property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are
in a safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible
flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive weather warnings.
The next update will be with the routine advisory package at
1100 AM EDT (1500 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 1000 AM EDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 84.5W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WNW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...155 MPH...250 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...919 MB...27.14 INCHES
(snip)
OneGrassRoot
(23,953 posts)that, regardless of any downgrade at this point, it won't impact the storm surge. I'm paraphrasing but essentially the "energy" of the CAT 5 storm, and I assume proximity while at that status, means that the water/wind it is bringing to create the surge is already in place and that aspect isn't downgraded at this point.
Johnny2X2X
(24,207 posts)They're not seeing the weakening they had hoped for. The sheer was a little less. This now has a good chance to make landfall as a CAT4.
obamanut2012
(29,369 posts)
LeftInTX
(34,294 posts)I can tell that the pressure has risen a bit.
However, a downgraded 5, might as well be a 5 mainly due to storm size.
Johnny2X2X
(24,207 posts)With hopew that it would be a weak CAT3 or even strong CAT2.
What's also striking to me is that the other coast of FL will see a CAT1 storm as it moves across the state.
LeftInTX
(34,294 posts)Storms can stay pretty much tropical over Florida if they're traveling from W-E or E-W. Because the pennisula is only about 100 miles wide and the storm is larger, it will still have sustaining energy from the gulf and atlantic as it crosses E-W. Also the terrain is flat. Continental climate dooms hurricanes, but right now (as in today) the Florida pennisula is not experiencing continental climate.
Intractable
(2,103 posts)RubyRose
(319 posts)lising power for the next couple of days.
Mossfern
(4,716 posts)obamanut2012
(29,369 posts)Best meteorologist ever. He is out of Tampa, and isn't a hype guy. Even though I lived in SOFL, I only listened to him, not more local folks.
ProudMNDemocrat
(20,897 posts)They showed some people who have not yet evacuated. Even the Mayor of Tampa was saying that those who did not evacuate, will eventually die. Their homes will be coffins inundated with storm surge never experienced before. The fear that Tampa will be catastrophically damaged and areas within is yet to be seen. Storm surge of up to 15 feet is difficult to fathom.
For Hurricane Milton is being described as ..."An Atomic Bomb of water and wind on a massive scale."
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Standing across the water from a small house near a several-story building.
He said he didn't expect the house to remain there.
((Wonder if he was positioned there to rescue himself this time...))
LeftInTX
(34,294 posts)are schools which are open for shelters that are often 10 miles inland.
The "City of Tampa" (which I assume is the city hall) has an elevation of 48 feet.
The beaches were hit terribly with Helene, but a small island with a breakwater in Tampa Bay was spared several hundred yards inland.
Of course it is better to leave the area because the power will be out for an extended time and other infrastructure issues. (Stores closed, wind damage, roads impassable) But there should be shelters for those who cannot leave the general area.
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1100 AM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...TORNADIC SUPERCELLS FROM MILTON BEGINNING TO SWEEP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...THE TIME TO PREPARE, INCLUDING EVACUATE IF TOLD DO SO, IS
QUICKLY COMING TO AN END ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.8N 84.3W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
None.
(snip)
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles
(280 km). A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083) located approximately 80 miles
northeast of the center recently reported a sustained wind of 44 mph
(71 km/h) with a gust of 57 mph (91 km/h).
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Milton's structure has begun to change due to the onset of strong
southwesterly shear, which UW-CIMSS is analyzing to be 30-35 kt.
The cloud canopy has become more asymmetric with dry air
infiltrating the western side of the circulation, and the eye has
also become cloud filled. The NOAA and Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunters observed that the eye is open to the south, and a
very recent dropsonde indicates that the minimum pressure is up to
931 mb. Milton's intensity is therefore set at 125 kt on this
advisory.
Deep-layer shear is expected to increase further today and this
evening, and continued weakening is anticipated. However, since
Milton only has another 12 hours or so over water, it is expected
to still be a major hurricane when it makes landfall tonight. The
NHC intensity forecast lies between the statistical-dynamical models
and the consensus aids at 12 hours, meaning that Milton is likely
to be a category 3 or 4 strength at landfall. A slow decay in the
winds is expected after landfall, but Milton is anticipated to move
off the east coast of Florida on Thursday still as a hurricane. On
another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.
Milton is moving quickly toward the northeast (035/15 kt). The
track models insist that the hurricane will continue to move
northeastward but slow down through the rest of today, with a turn
toward the east-northeast occurring overnight. The NHC track
forecast maintains continuity with the previous predictions, lying
near the northern boundary of the guidance envelope and close to
where the raw model fields bring the center onshore.
We would like to emphasize that Milton's exact landfall location is
not possible to predict even at this time, particularly if the
hurricane wobbles during the day and into this evening.
(snip)
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 09/1500Z 25.8N 84.3W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 10/0000Z 27.0N 83.0W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 10/1200Z 28.0N 81.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
36H 11/0000Z 28.7N 78.3W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 11/1200Z 29.1N 75.1W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/0000Z 29.3N 72.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 12/1200Z 29.9N 68.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 13/1200Z 31.4N 62.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 14/1200Z 32.8N 55.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
(snip)
nocoincidences
(2,489 posts)are shown in this live cam video.
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
1200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...ENSURE YOU HAVE MULTIPLE WAYS TO RECEIVE WEATHER WARNINGS...
...1200 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
Ensure you are in a safe location before the onset of strong winds
or possible flooding. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive
weather warnings.
Another position update will be provided at 100 PM EDT (1700 UTC)
SUMMARY OF 1200 PM EDT...1600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 84.2W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM WSW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...931 MB...27.50 INCHES
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Saying they got "LT Dan" evacuated to a shelter.
RubyRose
(319 posts)Another is to the east moving north through Ft Myers. Very scary!
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS JUST OFFSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...100 PM EDT POSITION UPDATE...
Milton is currently moving north-northeastward or 030/15 kt. A turn
towards the northeast is anticipated with a slower forward speed
later this evening.
Tropical-storm-force winds are just offshore and now is the time to
stay inside and away from windows. Listen for updates and be ready
in case you lose electrical power. Keep a battery-powered radio,
charged cell phone and flashlight handy.
The next update will be with the intermediate advisory at 200 PM EDT
(1800 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 100 PM EDT...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 84.2W
ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...935 MB...27.61 INCHES
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)"online learning opportunity"
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Altamaha
Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina.
(snip)
At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.0 West. Milton is moving
toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected this evening
and tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected
on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton
will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight,
cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move
off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on
Thursday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher
gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely
dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of
Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves
across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is
forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and
it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.
Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles
(280 km), especially to the north. A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083)
located about 50 miles east of the center recently reported a
sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (112
km/h).
(snip)
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
300 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS MOVING ONSHORE THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
Tropical-storm-force winds are now moving onshore the west coast of
Florida. There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across
the Florida peninsula.
If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be ready to shelter
quickly, preferably away from windows and in an interior room not
prone to flooding.
The next update will be at 400 PM EDT (2000 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 300 PM EDT...1900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 83.7W
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...27.99 INCHES
Beachnutt
(8,909 posts)Is there a chance it will hit Florida ?
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)
GusBob
(8,249 posts)not sure what that means
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)On another note, Milton is expected to begin interacting with a front
later this evening, which is likely to cause the wind field to
expand on the hurricane's northwestern side. This will likely
cause very strong, gusty winds to occur even to the north of where
Milton makes landfall.
GusBob
(8,249 posts)The eye seems to be opening up
nitpicked
(1,834 posts)Hurricane Milton Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL ONGOING...
...MULTIPLE TORNADO WARNINGS IN EFFECT ACROSS FLORIDA PENINSULA...
Heavy rainfall with tropical-storm force winds are spreading inland
across the Florida peninsula. A recent wind gust of 68 mph (109
km/h) was recorded at a mesonet site located in Fort Myers Beach.
There are also multiple tornado warnings in effect across the
Florida peninsula. If a tornado warning is issued for your area, be
ready to shelter quickly, preferably away from windows and in an
interior room not prone to flooding.
The next update will be with the full advisory package at 500 PM EDT
(2100 UTC).
SUMMARY OF 400 PM EDT...2000 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.9N 83.5W
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WNW OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA
ABOUT 100 MI...155 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...950 MB...28.05 INCHES
ornotna
(11,482 posts)Won't hurt my feelings if it slows down more.
ornotna
(11,482 posts)sheared hurricane, with the heaviest precipitation to the north of
the center, and the eye open on the south side. This structure was
confirmed by a recent Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission,
where the eyewall was reported open to the southwest. The plane
reported that the pressure has risen during the past few hours, with
the latest center drop supporting a minimum pressure of 948 mb.
Based on this pressure, and the reduction of measured flight-level
winds, the intensity is estimated to be 105 kt. The highest
Doppler velocities from the Tampa radar have been between 100 and
105 kt.
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT4+shtml/092056.shtml