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[PeaceWave]

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[onecaliberal]

1. This is pure propaganda.

[RidinWithHarris]

59. Why would a college that does these polls as a free public service create propaganda?

What's the upside for them? You can't claim they are paid for results like that, because they aren't paid at all.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

99. A lot of college polls are actually a bit to the left.

There’s a few that are to the right. My guess is that they have sociology and poly sci students - maybe grad students doing them for the experience. We had to take a bunch of statistics classes for psych undergrad and for my masters in social work.

[DeepWinter]

132. I was a Poli Sci

College student and was part on the polling crew and the script we had was a neutral as you could possibly get. The Dept just wanted to know where people sat. And I'd say the Dept left of center.

[bdamomma]

66. Propaganda

machine is on full throttle. That's Putin.

[RidinWithHarris]

68. Since Democratic campaigns quite often tell us they're behind themselves to solicit donations...

...why would you assume a polls that shows us a few points behind is effective propaganda that someone like Putin would bother with?

And what leverage do you imagine Putin has over Quinnipiac University, which isn't paid to do the polling it does?

[bdamomma]

72. i

stand corrected. I misspoke.

I don't have faith in polls.

[RidinWithHarris]

75. There's a difference between not having "faith" in polls...

...and the conspiratorial reactions and head-in-the-sand reactions unfavorable polls so reflexively generate.

The pools are good enough when you average then together to tell us this is a tight race that depends on turnout, motivation, and ground game more than anything else. The polls aren't "wrong" or something to lack faith in when that's what's left to make a big difference in election outcome.

Fortunately I think all of those harder-to-quantify factors favor Harris and other Democrats now.

[MontanaFarmer]

69. Quinnipiac is not propaganda. That's not helpful.

Whether it's accurate or not remains to be seen but they are not a red wave pollster.

[Emile]

131. They're quite notorious for making some outrageous bad

polls in the past. This time is different?

[onecaliberal]

153. Sure Jan.

[elocs]

103. So if it's good news it's from the mouth of God,

but if it's bad news it's either propaganda or fake news?
Interesting.

[Polybius]

134. Then why do they have her up in PA?

Perhaps it's bad polling and not propaganda.

[Amishman]

156. She might be benefitting from McCormick headwinds

The ads slamming the Pubs senate candidate (McCormick) have been both relentless and quite well done, to the point I wouldn't be surprised if it's hurting the Pubs overall in PA.

[Klarkashton]

2. What's going on is it's Quinnipiac.

[Rebl2]

84. Exactly

[imanamerican63]

3. Ignore the Polls!!!!!

Vote!

[krawhitham]

14. I always vote, but ignoring the polls and burying your head in the sand is stupid

[imanamerican63]

17. No, I don't believe so!

I’m just saying that we need to vote and polls aren’t always right or they are rigged to influence voters.

[former9thward]

30. If they are rigged how come we don't hear from whistleblowers?

There are tens of thousands of people involved in polling organizations. Shouldn't at least one tell us about the rigging?

[ProfessorGAC]

73. What Would They Blow The Whistle On?

The methodology can be manipulated in such a way that pollsters get the results they expect to see, and keep adjusting sampling strata until they get it.
There's no wrongdoing, just a biasing of data because they truly believe this is where the numbers really lie.
Then, given the tiny sample sizes, it's easy to justify continuous sampling adjustments.
The people working there could easily convinced that they're doing it the right way.
It doesn't require a nefarious conspiracy, merely human bias. So, a whistle-blower would have nothing to reveal.
That doesn't mean an unconscious bias isn't rigging/biasing the results.

[former9thward]

81. If they were doing those things then the polls would be dramatically wrong.

Despite assertations they have largely been in line with election results for as long as I can remember.

[ProfessorGAC]

90. We Disagree

I don't think they've been all that reliable given the slop built in my large MOE.
BTW: They are doing it. They have admitted to adjusting sampld strata. Not sure how you misses that.

[former9thward]

95. Of course they adjust sampling strata.

The voting electorate constantly changes. The percent claiming to affiliate with the R and D parties changes every election. They adjust if they see certain voting groups changing their voting patterns. They are trying to be a close to absolute accuracy as possible.

I do not believe they are making these changes for nefarious reasons. They make money based on accuracy, so they have a motivation to be correct. They also want campaigns to hire them for internal polling and that is not going to happen if they are always far off.

[ProfessorGAC]

98. Try Harder

You are attributing something to me where I specifically said the opposite.
So, you're arguing against a point I didn't make. In fact, I specifically said it DOESN'T require anything nefarious.
You've resorted to putting words in my mouth.
That's a disqualifier. Debate is over.

[Demsrule86]

169. You miss the point you will never adjust samples without creating bias.

It has nothing to do with nefarious motives. Although some polls are deliberately sabotaged.

[former9thward]

175. Which polling company do you own?

[dpibel]

127. "assertations"?

Are you totally sure you're a major litigator?

[former9thward]

149. When have I ever said that?

Please cut and paste. I make prosecutors adhere to the Constitution and I don't have to advertise for clients.

[Demsrule86]

161. That is not true. Nate Silver lost his job due to poor performance.

Lichtman predicts Kamala will win...he is never wrong

Allan Lichtman, the historian renowned for accurately predicting 9 out of the 10 most recent presidential elections, has shared his prediction for this year's White House race. He forecasts that Vice President Kamala Harris will win. In a video first reported by The New York Times, Lichtman explained that his prediction is based on a set of thirteen "keys" or true-false questions assessing the strength and performance of the incumbent party in the White House.

https://www.phillyburbs.com/story/news/2024/10/02/allan-lichtman-predicts-who-will-win-2024-election-harris-or-trump-pa-voting-bucks-county/75455180007/

[former9thward]

163. Lichtman is never wrong except when he is.

He predicted Gore would win in 2000. His "keys" are categories that always have vague definitions. They are not reproduceable by others because Lichtman is the one who declares whether a candidate meet the key or not. Silver is not a pollster. He analyzes polls. He started his own company when he left Disney/ABC.

[Demsrule86]

168. Gore did win.

He has a perfect record

[former9thward]

174. My history books say he didn't

YMMV

[Demsrule86]

160. Perfect explanation...Thanks and rec.

I have looked at polls and I did a great deal of statistics in college. I have been fascinated ever since. Not saying I am an expert by any means. But is so blatant now. It used to be you made allowances for bias and you had larger sample sizes too...as your post pointed out, it makes a difference.

[Figarosmom]

126. We did

During trumps trial in New York they talked about how they pushed the polls
.. Quinnipiac always leaned right by sampling more repubs. Lawance O' Donnell used to talk about them so does Morning Joe

[former9thward]

148. The accusation of leaning right is thrown at every pollster.

When they have results people don't like.

[Zeitghost]

167. IIRC

That was about informal online polls.

[RidinWithHarris]

61. What's in it for a college that does polling for free (no one is paying them) to rig polls?

And why bother? Do you really think looking a little under in the polls hurts turnout?

If so, why are the campaigns trying to get donations always telling us that we're behind? The campaigns shoot themselves in the foot because they want donations more than votes?

[VMA131Marine]

56. Note your use of the word "polls" plural!

Quinnipiac is an outlier compared to all the other polls for MI and WI. For MI, there have been 3 other polls since 10/7 with a total of 1889 respondents, compared to 1,007 for the Q-poll, that have Harris up by an average of 2.5%. Public sentiment doesn’t change that fast absent some new revelation, which hasn’t happened.

Further, the last Q-poll on 9/18 had Harris up 5% by 51-46. That was an outlier on the high side for Harris at the time. Do you really think there has been a 7 point swing in 3 weeks?

So what do you think is more likely the 3 polls showing Harris up by between 2 and 3 points are correct or the one with the massive swing from the previous poll? I will note, that the margin of error for this new Q-poll does include the other 3 polling results so it’s actually not a statistically significant difference. Until there’s more polling that shows this result as a trend, I’m not worried about it.

The same argument applies for WI where the majority of recent polls have Harris up anywhere from 1 to 4 points.

[kcr]

104. DoNt BUrrY yOur HEAD IN THE SAND!!!!

Seriously, I can't get over how so many here seem to forget, or not know about outliers.

[VMA131Marine]

115. Dude!

If the Q-poll is correct then this election is over and Trump wins.

You have to look at the big picture.

[Metaphorical]

177. I'd second this

Pennsylvania is three different states - New York, the Midwest, and Alabama. If you pick 1000 voters and your distribution happens to give you a preponderance of one area (and yes, it is quite possible to do so, especially if you are sampling randomly by geography) you're going to get a significant variance.

Also, Trump has been following a strategy of pouring most of his resources in a few blue wall states, especially Pennsylvania, at the expense of ignoring most of the other states, so there may have been a brief ad blitz that will likely fade in effect over time.

[Cha]

109. VP Harris said that herself and

Not for nothing. 🕯️🕊️💙🌊🇺🇸

[montanacowboy]

4. Polls done

on landlines. Such bullshit.

[orange jar]

6. Pollsters do not conduct polls via landline only.

There may be other things questionable about this poll, but that is not one of them. Pollsters are not as out of touch with current technology as some seem to think they are.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

102. They do a lot of cell phones and internet. You can see exactly how most polls are conducted

If you click on the poll most of them show their methods. Good luck on how exactly they weight them - that’s beyond my pay grade.

[Demsrule86]

172. how about I had two poll calls where Roe was not even an issue in the poll?

[RobinA]

16. This Is Nonsense

I easily get as many poll calls on my cell as on the landline. I don't answer any of them.

[dpibel]

128. How do you know?

Does your phone really say "this is a poll call," as opposed to just showing an unknown phone number? If so, you have a smarter phone than I.

I think if you don't answer them, you don't know who they're from.

[womanofthehills]

150. Quinnipiac says it identifies itself and says it will call back - makes 5 attempts

Uses landlines and cell phones dialed randomly

[RobinA]

157. OK, Let Me

reword that. I get as many poll texts a day as I do other spam texts. I answer none of them. I don't know how many voice calls I get, I don't answer them.

[RJ_MacReady]

5. not credible

[Blaukraut]

7. A 9 point swing toward Trump in MI from 3 weeks ago?

Unless something drastic happened, that we don't know about, this makes no sense.

[helpisontheway]

11. Maybe that was during her bounce and it has settled back down? :( Nt

[Blaukraut]

13. Settling down would be 1-2 points, not 9. n/t

[Diraven]

33. Are there really people out there

Who changed their mind twice though?

[obamanut2012]

27. It also has her losing with 18-34 year-olds, which is ridiculous

[Elessar Zappa]

35. Yeah, no.

No way she loses that demographic. Gen Z women, in particular, are the most liberal generation ever, from what I’ve read.

[womanofthehills]

125. from: Times of Israel

"Arab-American and Muslim voters angry at US support for Israel’s offensive in Gaza are shunning Democrat Kamala Harris in the presidential race to back third-party candidate Jill Stein in numbers that could deny Harris victories in battleground states that will decide the November 5 election.

A Council on American-Islamic Relations poll released this month showed that in Michigan, home to a large Arab American community, 40 percent of Muslim voters backed the Green Party’s Stein. Republican candidate Donald Trump got 18% with Harris, who is US President Joe Biden’s vice president, trailing at 12%.

Stein, a Jewish anti-Israel activist, also leads Harris among Muslims in Arizona and Wisconsin, battleground states with sizable Muslim populations where Biden defeated Trump in 2020 by slim margin"

[Wiz Imp]

44. Exactly

No way things shifted by 9 points in 3 weeks. That tells you at least one of those polls is garbage. So why would anyone trust any of their polls at this point.

[helpisontheway]

8. One of the elected (woman but can't remember her name) said

Expressed concern about Michigan. Guess she noticed changes on the ground. Hopefully Kamala will start spending more time in both places.

[JustAnotherGen]

12. Slotkin

Congresswoman running for Senate out there. Some folks at DU seemed to think that her team releasing this info was for the benefit of fund raising.

I'm not sure. I'm hoping these polls are nothing burgers.

[Self Esteem]

18. Baldwin also hinted at something similar.

Their internals only had her up two points, and Harris down vs Trump.

[Quiet Em]

9. That poll has Trump winning 18-34 year olds in Michigan

I call BS. No freaking way.

[Wiz Imp]

48. Their recent National poll which showed an even race showed the same thing with young voters.

Of course, when I pointed out that some of the demographic breakdowns like this were just not believable so the top line was questionable, I was called an idiot by someone who said I don't understand how polling works (I was a professional statistician for almost 25 years - believe me, I know how polling works). Could their polls be accurate? Yes. But Quinnipiac's recent inconsistency, drastic shifts in short time frames and highly questionable results on many of the subsamples lead me to think their results are not trustworthy at this point.

[Quiet Em]

50. Yeah, something is clearly wrong.

I see no evidence in any other poll of a shift to Trump among young voters. I see no evidence of that in real life either.

Some people are just rude when they get on the internet. Sorry that happened to you.

[womanofthehills]

151. Michigan has the largest number of Muslim voters

Some will vote Jill Stein and some say they will not vote. Anyway, according to news reports, 70% supported Dems in past, but because of Gaza, that percentage is down.

[Quiet Em]

152. Yes, I'm aware of that issue

but this poll had them voting for Trump, not for Stein or sitting out. It had Trump over 50 with that age group. I can't buy that. No way.

[Demsrule86]

162. Some endorsed Harris

[Self Esteem]

10. Don't you know the only polls that are credible are the ones that show Harris winning?

Forget Quinnipiac's history of being a well-respected pollster, including in 2020 when they had Biden winning, it's now propaganda!

Ignore the internal poll from Baldwin that had Harris underwater in Wisconsin - that isn't true either!

People are going to bury their heads in the sand. But the reality is that Wisconsin and Michigan and Pennsylvania are extremely close states and whoever wins them will likely only win them by 1-2 points.

[obamanut2012]

20. lol

[arlyellowdog]

21. Except there is widespread agreement the polls are meaningless this year

Pollsters are out desperately trying to make guesses to stay in business with no real data. My son does some IT consult and it’s just about getting the right guess in the end and that poll swings like crazy.

[Self Esteem]

23. There isn't wide-spread agreement.

[wnylib]

106. NPR's program, Fresh Air, with host Terri Gross,

devoted their whole hour to discussions of polls last week. The program described polling methods for getting an accurate, unbiased result, then described how most polls are currently done.

I don't recall the specific details now, but the end conclusion was that most political polls released to the public are generally not reliable.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

26. There could be a few decent polls out there. We won't know until Election Day.

[arlyellowdog]

54. Yes there is from the IT people who work the pills

[former9thward]

32. No, there is not widespread agreement.

None at all.

[Florida Dem]

76. Polls and State of the Race

Agreed. Not to mention that same poll has Harris up in Pennsylvania, so I think it's kind of difficult to make the argument that Quinnipiac is some extreme right-wing outlier. Lots of the polling has been troublesome lately. It's baffling because Harris is such a strong candidate and Trump is getting crazier by the day.

This is definitely not where we want to be less than 4 weeks out before election night. It is an absolute coin flip with multiple recent polls showing Harris tied or trailing in multiple swing states. And yes, GOTV, etc. etc. I think it goes without saying that everybody on this forum is doing all they can to cast Trump tino the dustbin of history.

But I think we need to acknowledge that there is a deep-seated sickness within the psyche of this country. It is disturbingly plausible that we might not prevail in a few weeks. Nothing seems to move the needle (great debate performance, excellent convention, significant financial advantage, superior ground game, outstanding VP selection, and a multitude of high-profile GOP and celebrity endorsements).

I'm not necessarily predicting a doomsday scenario. It is very clear that we will go into election night having no idea who is going to win. We are are either trailing or leading within the margin of error in every single swing state. And no, I just don't buy into the belief that all of these polls are stacked against us in some grand conspiracy. There are some right-wing outfits that we all know about. But there are also many legitimate polling organizations that don't show us leading beyond the margin of error.

I don't really have any solutions or major criticisms. I think Harris, Walz, and campaign as a whole has been doing great job. I would like to see multiple rallies per day on some days in the final stretch. I would also like to see both Obamas and even Hillary Clinton out on the road aggressively campaigning. I think she can help drive the abortion message home. I really do feel like I'm living in a science fiction, dystopian nightmare at times. Let's do all we can and hope for victory. I will be doing that for sure. But I also will not be burying my head in the sand and pretending like we have any significant advantage going into election night. We should, but we don't.

And btw F@#k the electoral college. We wouldn't even have to sweat this thing if it wasn't for that abomination. Good luck to all.

[Poiuyt]

87. Good post

[Botany]

15. Codswallop

[obamanut2012]

19. lol RCP

[former9thward]

34. It is not RCP.

They report polls, they do not make them.

[obamanut2012]

38. The OP lists RCP, and RCP absolutely herds poll sorting

Also, this poll has several red flags in methodology, which I listed elsewhere.

Harris is not losing 18-34 to Trump. lol

[former9thward]

41. Ok, you don't like the results.

It is not who is reporting them. DU has so many experts in polling methodology. I forgot that.

[obamanut2012]

42. I didn't say that, but the metholodology is not great with this one, and I listed why with facts

Thanks for the personal attack and insult.

[former9thward]

45. No one has ever complained about the Q poll when it is posted here

and favors a D candidate. They use the same methodology. This same Q poll has Harris up by 2 in PA although other recent polls are showing Trump up. Is that one bad also?

[videohead5]

22. We need to see more than one poll

They have her losing young voters. That's hard to believe.

[B.See]

24. For one,

I don't respond to polls, especially when I don't know who's conducting them. Maybe there are other Democratic voters who do likewise. But..

2. It wouldn't be wise to dismiss them outright. Rather USE them as even greater incentive to GET OUT THE VOTE.

[Self Esteem]

28. This is how everyone should take all polls.

They're not gospel. They're not prediction. No one should believe just one poll or blindly accept it as truth. But it's not smart to dismiss polls, especially traditionally non-partisan polls, because you don't like the outcome.

The reality is that these polls doesn't differ all that much from any of the polls out there. They all point to a very close race.

That's what people should expect.

[B.See]

31. Absolutely.

[Aepps22]

78. True, GOTV is Key

Polls are based on what they assume the electorate looks like. If we GOTV and work hard we can pull this thing out. Anyone expecting anything other than a tight race isn't living in reality

[kerry-is-my-prez]

25. Quinnipiac is an extreme right wing poll. Nevertheless, I don't like that.....

You probably want to add 4 to 5 points to that poll - which isn’t good.

[Self Esteem]

39. I don't know if I'd ever considered Quinnipiac extremely right-wing.

They certainly don't have the history of favoring Republicans over the final results.

Their final national poll in 2020 had Biden +11.

You could make the case they whiffed badly four years ago and maybe that's caused them to correct.

Even still, their last state polls before this update were pretty favorable to Harris.

MI: +5 (-9 change)
WI: +1 (-3 change)
PA: +5 (-3 change)

So, they either goofed on this batch or there's been a shift away from Harris.

[Fiendish Thingy]

51. No its not "extreme RW"

Quinnipiac is a reputable pollster with a long history.

That said, the WI and MI polls have relatively high MOE’s, and the survey sampled more republicans than democrats (don’t know the actual partisan breakdown for those states).

[kerry-is-my-prez]

74. Oh yeah, I always get that poll mixed up with Quantus.

Sorry about that.

[rogerballard]

29. Massive turnout is how we win this

People need to get out and vote and we all know that, it is just that simple. I hope we have decent weather on election day everywhere.

[obamanut2012]

36. It has some red flags this time, for some of these reasons

I am sure some doomers will be along telling me I'm wrong, but they are wrong, and I will have some Brooklyn-style pizza tonight and send Harris $50.

Red flags: Neither Wisconsin nor Michigan included RFK as a polling option.

They have Harris losing the 18-34 vote by a lot, which we know is incorrect, and the Black voter numbers are also weird

It was also done with random dialing and with NO Party weighting.

As someone on Reddit said, don't 100% disregard it, just chuck it in the average and keep moving.

[Coexist]

37. thank you for your concern

[Rumaging]

40. But Ahead in Pa.

How can both things be true?

[kerry-is-my-prez]

43. Phew! A later poll has Harris up by +3 in Mich.

+3 Harris - 10/5-10/7 - Research Co. (LV)
(1:1)

+3 Tr- 10/3-10/7 - Quinnipiac (LV)
(W/out Kennedy, w/others)
+4 Tr- 10/3-10/7 - Quinnipiac (LV)
(1:1:

+3 Harris - 10/1-10/4 - Glengariff (LV)
(W/Kennedy, others)

+2 Harris-9/27-10/2-Redfield & Wilton(LV)
(w/out Kennedy, w/others)

She’s up by +1.1 in the 538 average - which is currently being dragged down by the Quinnipiac.

Does anyone know if Kennedy is still on the ballot in Michigan?

[obamanut2012]

52. Yes, and in WI. But they weren't included in the poll

[qazplm135]

46. Here's what you do

When a poll comes out that's great, like literally yesterday, you toss it into the averages.

When a poll comes out that's bad, you toss it into the averages.

Then look at the averages. Then forget them because the margin of error means Trump could win or Harris could win.

[Fiendish Thingy]

49. That's a great way to get a very skewed, biased, and inaccurate average of polls

Simon Rosenberg did a great overview of how, once again, a flood of Red Wave polls are deliberately manipulating the polling averages:

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219537649

[qazplm135]

88. No it's a way

To recognize that polling is inherently error prone and that unless one side is consistently up high single digits either side can win in an election.

[RidinWithHarris]

71. Don't forget, however, the more polls you average together the narrower the margin of error becomes

The race is really tight, but what the polls can't reliably model is voter motivation to turn out, and the effect of a good ground game. That's where we Democrats have a good edge now.

[qazplm135]

91. If folks need to be encouraged

Feel free. If folks need to be scared, that's fine too

Whatever gets them there, but it's all self initiated.

The polling isn't going to tell you much.

You can talk about money and organization but we had it in 16 and lost, we had less in 20 and won.

Enthusiasm? One hopes, and certainly the fact that she can win is all the enthusiasm I need. But she's not remotely guaranteed, neither is he. The last two elections were tight in the EC, odds are, this one will be too. Even if she, like the last seven Dems in a row, wins the pop vote by millions, and she will.

What I'm not going to do is get depressed or anxious or hyped over this poll or that poll. Almost every last one of them is within a margin of error where either can win.

[RidinWithHarris]

111. Everyone is, of course, entitled to their own emotional reaction. They aren't entitled to their own facts.

Yelling "Propaganda!" and "It's all rigged" isn't just an emotional reaction. Without proof, it's disinformation.

[qazplm135]

118. Pretty sure

I said none of that

[RidinWithHarris]

123. I wasn't accusing you of saying that

Just emphasizing something that seemed worthy of emphasis in this context.

[valleyrogue]

112. No way is this race "tight." Trump is far less popular now than in 2020 and 2016. n/t

[RidinWithHarris]

114. Your "I just know it!" is better than polling?

Nope. No matter how flawed polls are, people just going on their gut feelings is even less reliable.

You just sound like someone in emotional denial about how stupid and uninformed and disinformed American voters can be. Some of those people who like Trump less than they did before still hate Democrats more.

I happen to think the odds favor Harris, but I don't need to deny the reality of this being a close race to have hope.

[qazplm135]

119. What evidence

Do you have for that assertion?

[Fiendish Thingy]

47. First of all, why are you looking at RCP?

Here’s a direct link to the Quinnipiac poll:

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3913

For the record, the MOE for LV’s in MI is +/- 3.9%

The MOE for LV’s in WI is +/- 3.7%

Both polls sampled more Republicans than Dems, and in WI, more independents were surveyed than either Republicans or Dems.

I don’t know the actual partisan registration breakdown in those states.

[obamanut2012]

53. Yup, and the poll was not weighted by Party and was randomly dialed

[videohead5]

63. This is silly

They oversampled R's. this is a joke of a poll.

[obamanut2012]

65. Agreed

A poll showing some concerns for Harris is only as legitimate as its methodology.

[awesomerwb1]

55. Unbelievable.

[Kingofalldems]

57. Bad things about Democrats.

[arlyellowdog]

58. I think it's funny people believe this industry is not baloney

It’s a way to make money every 2 years and my son said none of it is actually based on data. (Land line calls? Really). But it’s money and the polls will continue to adjust until the guessing is right. And, yes, he is disgusted and, yes, he’s sick of IT audit.

[RidinWithHarris]

62. Quinnipiac isn't paid by any one. As an academic institution, it provides polling as a free public service.

And no, they aren't all still using landlines.

[videohead5]

64. But they sampled more R's

And the poll was not weighted. This is polling malpractice.

[RidinWithHarris]

67. First of all, a sampling difference like that can be adjusted for

So it's not damning in and of itself.

Second, that wasn't the accusation being made. The accusation was that Quinnipiac was essentially bought off to produce propaganda.

If one accusation fails, and you then refuse to acknowledge that but instead just make a different accusation, you may be part of the problem.

None of this is to say Quinnipiac must be correct. Of course not. All polls have outliers, and the quality of polls varies. But none of that justifies this conspiratorial bullshit.

[obamanut2012]

82. Except they didn't, you are ignoring posts stating they did not adjust for Party

It is not weighted that way.

[RidinWithHarris]

86. I looked at the page talking about their methodology...

...and it didn't say one way or another anything about weighting. Unless someone else has more to go on, a lack of an explicit statement that weighting isn't applied doesn't mean it isn't.

And it's still beside the point to the type of accusation that was made at first.

And it's still ridiculous to assume that someone wanting to somehow do Democrats harm would make our polls look at little lower, since Democratic campaigns themselves often state that they are running behind as an incentive to give money and as motivation to work harder to vote and GOTV.

[obamanut2012]

94. lol wrong

you are wrong about what you stated about the weighting

[RidinWithHarris]

110. Fine, link to where you found this info please n/t

[obamanut2012]

121. No

[Jersey Devil]

70. Right. Quinniapac is a college in Connecticut

x

[MorbidButterflyTat]

60. Another one?

[BlueCheeseAgain]

77. Best not to react too much to any individual poll.

Toss them into the average and carry on.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

79. Harris +3 on another later poll & in other one.

Remember when The NY Times came out with 2 different outliers in Trumps favor? Let hope they were wrong and Quinnipiac is wrong.

+3 Harris - 10/5-10/7 - Research Co. (LV)
(1:1)

+3 Tr- 10/3-10/7 - Quinnipiac (LV)
(W/out Kennedy, w/others)
+4 Tr- 10/3-10/7 - Quinnipiac (LV)
(1:1

+3 Harris - 10/1-10/4 - Glengariff (LV)
(W/Kennedy, others

[LiberalFighter]

80. There is a problem with any poll for this election.

How does one create a poll that reaches all the different groups that were not a factor in 2016 or 2020?

One set of polls likely doesn't reach all of the different people

[voris820]

83. I think the negative ads are working.

They make her seem far left mostly from statements she made during the 2019 primaries so voters don't know if they can trust her to be moderate which is how she's running now.

I think she needs to start saying that she won't just be representing voters in Calif, or voters in the Democratic primary, that she will be representing all the voters in the country and thats how she'll govern. She is already sort of doing that but I think she needs to be more forceful about it.

[obamanut2012]

92. your concern is noted

[mercuryblues]

107. Well then, it's a good thing

She put this ad out

&t=12s

This ad is the closing statement of her debate with trump. Which had over 67 million viewers.
Transcript:

I'll tell you, I started my career as a prosecutor. I was a D.A. I was an attorney general. A United States senator. And now vice president. I've only had one client. The people. And I'll tell you, as a prosecutor I never asked a victim or a witness are you a Republican or a Democrat. The only thing I ever asked them, are you okay? And that's the kind of president we need right now. Someone who cares about you and is not putting themselves first. I intend to be a president for all Americans and focus on what we can do over the next 10 and 20 years to build back up our country by investing right now in you the American people.

[lees1975]

85. Is this a real Quinnipiac poll? Who the heck is Real Clear Polling?

Something fishy here. Other than Quinnipiac isn't that great and is right wing biased.

Comfort yourself, and do some googling and you'll find plenty of polls to show one, two, three point leads in all of those states for Harris, and in fact, some leads in the South and Sun Belt.

I wish we could just kind of chill out, and not jump every time a right wing leaning poll says she's behind somewhere. Best place to go is to click and google some of the local newspaper sites in those states. You don't get the same picture as this single, low number, usually right wing leaning poll gives you.

[JohnSJ]

89. I am not sure about their sampling. Here are the statistics for Michigan sampling

The most glaring thing I see is that they are selecting from a census list, not a voting list, and they are asking the participants if they consider themselves republican, Democrat, or independent.

the calls are made randomly from a census list, and since they are not using a previous voting list to cross reference if the person being called is even registered to vote, and if the are, does the party affiliation or no party affiliation they identify with match the previous voting register list?


"This RDD telephone survey was conducted from October 3 – 7, 2024 throughout the
state of Michigan.
Responses are reported for 1,007 likely voters 18 years and older with a margin of
sampling error of +/- 3.1 percentage points. Margins of sampling error for
subgroups are available upon request.
Surveys are conducted with live interviewers calling landlines and cell phones.
Data collection support provided by Dynata. All data was managed and tabulated by
the Quinnipiac University Poll.
PARTY IDENTIFICATION QUESTION WORDING - Generally speaking, do you consider
yourself a Republican, a Democrat, an Independent, or what?
LIKELY VOTERS
PARTY IDENTIFICATION
Republican 32%
Democrat 31
Independent 30
Other/DK/NA 7
METHODOLOGICAL DETAILS
Dual frame landline and cell phone samples are generated using Random Digit Dialing
procedures by Dynata. Both the landline and cellular phone samples are stratified
by Census division according to area code. This survey includes 146 completes from
the landline frame and 861 completes from the cellphone frame.
The survey requires respondent access to a phone and at least three call attempts
are made to try to reach potential respondents. When calling landlines interviewers
ask to speak with the adult member of the household having the next birthday.
Interviews are conducted on cell phones with both cell only and dual owner
respondents. The complete land and cell sample is weighted to National Health
Interview Survey estimates for [land only/cell only/dual owner] households.
Questions are asked in English, as they appear in the release document. If a
question is asked of a subset of the sample, a descriptive note is added in
parentheses preceding the question. Questions are numbered as asked with additional
questions found in successive releases.
This survey uses statistical weighting procedures to account for deviations in the
survey sample from known population characteristics, which helps correct for
differential survey participation and random variation in samples. The overall
adult sample is weighted to recent Census data using a sample balancing procedure
to match the demographic makeup of the population by county, gender, age, education
and race. When including the design effect, the margin of sampling error for this
study of likely voters is +/- 3.9 percentage points.
Polls are funded entirely by Quinnipiac University. The Quinnipiac University Poll
is part of the Office of Marketing and Communications.
Contact [e-mail] for additional information or call 203-582-5201.

https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/

https://poll.qu.edu/methodology/

Regardless, all the pollsters indicate that this election is too close to call.

Whether that turns out to be the case or not we will know shortly.

[obamanut2012]

96. Correct! With no weighting by Party, and RFK is not in the mix

All we need to know is that they have Trump GREATLY winning the 18-34 cohort, and that ain't happening.

[DFW]

93. Never having heard of "Real Clear POlitics" and noting the hit and run nature of the thread, I searched

Wikipedia, provided a cursory explanation.
In a subheading called "2017 onward" or some such, there were these bits:

In November 2020, The New York Times published an article alleging that since 2017, when many of its "straight-news" reporting journalists were laid off, RealClearPolitics showed a pro-Trump turn with donations to its affiliated nonprofit increasing from entities supported by wealthy conservatives.
------------------------------------
The New York Times also said that "Real Clear became one of the most prominent platforms for elevating unverified and reckless stories about the president's political opponents, through a mix of its own content and articles from across conservative media...." and that for days after the election, "Real Clear Politics gave top billing to stories that reinforced the false narrative that the president could still somehow eke out a win."

In the immortal words of a famous, now-departed friend of mine, "'nuff said."

[obamanut2012]

97. You are correct

Plus, there was no weighting by Party.

[valleyrogue]

113. RCP has been around since the advent of blogs. It has always been right-leaning. n/t

[lees1975]

116. That's for Real Clear Politics, an aggregate poll.

This is Real Clear Polling, a site I've never seen before.

[LudwigPastorius]

120. However biased Real Clear Politics editorial content may, or may not be, it doesn't conduct the polls.

They merely aggregate and report a moving average of many polls conducted by other organizations.

The last 10 they have averaged and posted were done by NY Times/Siena, I&I/TIPP, Economist/YouGov, Quinnipiac, CNN, NBC News, GWU/HarrisX, ABC News/Ipsos, Atlas Intel, and Yahoo News.

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/trump-vs-harris-vs-kennedy-vs-stein-vs-west

[Demsrule86]

165. Not anymore. they are supported by the right

[PCIntern]

101. In the block quote the company

refers to the “Republican “ party and then the “Democrat” party…hmmmm.

[gay texan]

105. Instead of freaking out about polls,

Go volunteer to get Kamala elected

[Bleacher Creature]

108. I can absolutely guarantee that there hasn't been a NINE point shift to Trump in three weeks.

People need to stop freaking out about one poll. Harris still leads the polling averages in all three states. I don't think there's anything nefarious going on, but Quinnipiac has been swinging wildly all cycle.

[vercetti2021]

117. No way in hell GenZ is voting for this guy

Except maybe the boys who never matured past 15 year old edgelord like Eloon. QPac is a shit pollster. Much like most pollsters. I can't wait for Harris to outrun expectations and polling can be declared officially fucking dead.

[Jspur]

124. You always have to factor margin in error when it comes to these Polls.

This is not an ideal situation to be in for Harris, but I would say it's far from over. As long as she doesn't get behind more than 5 points in these state polls then I say this race is still a 50-50 race. These polls just show what I have felt for a while which is unfortunately that this race is going to be close. All we can do is give it our all whether it's donating, volunteering, and voting for Harris. After doing that we just live with the results.

[kansasobama]

129. Harris campaign has been making mistakes

I think Harris campaign is hardly holding rallies in Michigan and Wisconsin. She was electrifying when she does that. Since news people want her do interviews, she is spending too much time on interviews that will not win votes.

Tim Waltz debate did some sanewashing of Vance.

Trump is doing more rallies. Get back to your strength, Harris. Undecided do not watch 60 minutes.

I am sure my friends here will yell at me. But her October campaign has been less than optimal.

[RJ_MacReady]

130. wrong

She should be doing more interviews. Rallies don't gain voters. She is running a good October campaign. Your "concern" is noted.

[Self Esteem]

133. This is wrong.

The most effective voter outreach are rallies. Rallies create energy and dominate the local news - interviews do not.

There's a reason literally every campaign in the history of presidential campaigns ramp up their rally schedule in October, including doing multiple a day at times.

They not only are great ways to get people energized to vote, they help with early voting. And yes, they draw the disengaged a lot too. If a rally has a performer or speaker that is really well known, people who are not super political often show up and they're the ones you're frequently reaching.

People will show up to hear the Obamas or a musical act.

Beyond that, as I said, they're extremely effective at the local level. The local press will cover a rally multiple ways - and multiple days. They also often air the rally on local TV. It's far more wide-reaching on a regional level than her going on, say, Stern.

That's not to say she shouldn't do interviews. You need those too. But it's just wrong to say they're not needed.

Case in point: 2020. The Biden team was not expecting to hold rallies down the stretch and instead focused on doing interviews because of COVID. But then Trump ramped up his rally schedule and the Biden team saw it was having an impact at not just energizing his base - but drawing new voters. So, they course corrected and came up with outdoor drive-in rallies with big-time Democrats and performers. It helped slow that advantage Trump was seeing and likely locked in a close election.

Rallies are vital.

[kansasobama]

135. I liked both your takes

Thank you friends. Whether you agree or disagree. I plan to write to the campaign about it.

[obamanut2012]

137. I knew you would post this, too

I had some NYC style Italian food last night and thought of you. Sicilian pizza is great, but I LOVE those thin Brooklyn slices.

[Aepps22]

139. Love how Certain Posters Made Alt Accounts to Keep Posting

[Self Esteem]

140. I'm on the west coast, my friend.

Not much Brooklyn style pizza out here.

[obamanut2012]

142. So am I, and I had some last night

[Self Esteem]

145. Well cool.

[MorbidButterflyTat]

141. Mmmmmmmmmm!

Sounds yummy!

[obamanut2012]

143. It was! Fresh roma tomatos, chunks of moz, and basil

[obamanut2012]

136. None of this is true

But I'm not surprised you posted this.

[vercetti2021]

144. The Doom and Gloom twins lol

That's what I call em

[obamanut2012]

164. serious question

May I steal that name?

lololol

[Jersey Devil]

138. I don't think rallies do much at all

All rallies do is give local party organizers a chance to show off by seeing how many bodies they can deliver to the rallies by calling local party members and getting them out to the rallies. And the people who go to the rallies are often the same people over and over again. Trump has people who actually follow him all over the country to attend his rallies like he was the Grateful Dead. If you go to one of these rallies, for either party, you are already committed to that candidate, so no one is going to be convinced to change their mind (most are not televised). On the other hand, interviews and guest appearances on TV have the potential to be seen by millions of people who would normally never attend a rally of any kind.

[SocialDemocrat61]

147. I would love to see some actual data

on the effectiveness of rallies. They are expensive to hold but is that money better spent on get out the vote efforts?

[mvd]

146. Q polls can be very volatile

Not a concern yet..

[TheFarseer]

154. I think we're in trouble

It’s not over but I think Trump is a slight favorite now. The situation in Gaza is only getting worse. The hurricanes put people in a gloomy mood. Everyone keeps hyping inflation and the Harris team is not communicating effectively on that issue. They keep trotting out endorsements from people like Dick Cheney. Quit doing that!! Literally everyone HATES Dick Cheney. Trump keeps yelling no tax on tips. This is a complete scam but it sounds good to people who work for tips. I think it will end up being Jeff Bezos and Leon Cooperman etc report their entire salary as tips but that’s a hard case to make to working class folks.

[obamanut2012]

158. There is no factual basis for any of what you stated

Brain over emotions. That includes the OP, who posted a poll with bad methodology and no weighting.

[TheFarseer]

166. The polls are the factual basis

Even if you think they oversample Republicans, the numbers are still moving in Trump’s direction. I provided analysis to try and explain the shift in polls. You didn’t make an argument in your post.

And let me super clear, I don’t like Trump leading in a poll any more than you do.

[obamanut2012]

170. Nope, incorrect

[TheFarseer]

171. Oh, I get it

I'm just wrong. Glad you could clear that up!

[VMA131Marine]

178. Polls are not facts; they are statistics.

And if you poll a bad sample you are going to get crappy results. Further, pollsters are aware that they underpredicted support for Trump in 2016 and 2020 and they tend to poll based on the last election. But there’s plenty of evidence that the electorate has changed because of the overturn of Roe V Wade. I think they are now over sampling Trump supporters. There are other reasons to think that; one of the Q-polls shows Trump with a substantial lead in the 18-34 age group. Of all the things that aren’t happened , that’s not happening the most.

[RJ_MacReady]

159. reality says otherwise

[Demsrule86]

173. Nonsense...I am saving this for after the election...I think we will do very well.

[Thrill]

155. I've been saying they needed to hit back on that Transgender Inmates Ad

It’s clearly a manipulated ad. But it runs on loop here in NC. And they have a couple versions of it. It’s effective. Especially if it’s running on loop in these states like it’s doing here. I haven’t heard the Harris Campaign hit back on it at all.

Also no ads about him being a Felon or his failed policies when he was president. I don’t get it with all the money she’s raised.

[NoMoreRepugs]

176. Every single day the SlobFather says or has something damaging to him printed - Russia covid supplies, Jan 6 crapola -

every day there is great news about the economy or an awe inspiring Harris rally - I’m supposed to believe support for Harris is eroding. Nah, don’t buy it.

[Trueblue Texan]

179. Scary indeed, but I have one question for you?

Well, one starting question.. WHAT are you doing about it? Are you going out to get voters engaged? Are you phone banking, block walking, donating, delivering signs,? There’s still plenty to do! So go vote and get back to work!