It feels like there are 2 different tracks this election can take.

[MontanaFarmer]

Based on polling, vibes, whatever metric you want to use, I see 2 realistic scenarios. 1, let's call it the NYT/Siena election, is a precinct-by-precinct slog in the blue wall states and/or the sun belt to try do drag out enough voters to squeak out a win. 2, let's call the morning consult/ Michael Moore election, where trump gets buried under a tsunami of women voting, many for the first time, and VPH wins all the core 7 plus a surprise or 2. My instinct has been that that's the election we're looking at, but I'm aware of enough recent polling to understand that possibility 1 is very much on the table too. I think we have the infrastructure to win a slobberknocker but I'm hopeful of the Wipeout scenario that shoves this whole Maga movement back under the rock it crawled out from. What are others' thoughts?

[underpants]

1. I'd say more likely 1

It’s going to be really close either way. As you said slogging it out precinct by precinct. Less than 200K voters (total) over 6-8 states will decide the POTUS.

Yes we have a much better infrastructure of experienced volunteers. The GOP is a mess. Farming out their GOTV operations (reaks of laundering/paying off friends) to the top ticket telling Senate campaigns down that they are on their own.

[PCIntern]

2. Tea for 2

The latter in my opinion. The last time he ran was before 1/6, before criminal convictions, and before this firehouse of horrifying lies and insults as well as a large Republicans for Harris movement

Personally I think he should get 8% of the vote but he will exceed 43% but lose badly where it counts. People are tired of him.

[RJ_MacReady]

3. This is my opinion as well

[Girard442]

4. I think you can make a case that the landscape has changed so much that polls are unreliable.

Unreliable in a "who the hell knows" sort of way.

If they are reliable and nothing major happens before election day, we're effed.

Knuckles will be white and nails will be bitten.

[Self Esteem]

5. I think Harris is preparing for the first scenario so I'll follow their lead.

I don't think there is one person on the campaign who believes they're poised for a comfortable win. They see this election as a toss-up.

I pretty much agree. In MI, PA & WI, whoever wins will likely do so by only 1-2 points, which means there is a very real chance Trump prevails.

I don't think he will - but I'm gonna be honest: I feel less confident saying that right now than I did a few weeks ago.

[MontanaFarmer]

6. Strangely, i see a path where the blue wall states

Un-bloc themselves, if you will. T wins Wisconsin/ Michigan, VPH wins PA, Nevada and NC and/or AZ to win. I do still allow for the possibility though that he's cooked, that polls aren't capturing the Dobbs effect and she wins nationally something like 53-45.

[Self Esteem]

7. I think if she loses MI & WI, she will lose PA.

I wish I felt this was turning into a 2008-like race but while I think polls could be off, being off that much nationally just seems very unlikely.

Even in 2022, polling was largely accurate as it related to national numbers.

Right now, 538 has Harris' lead nationally at 2.5. I just don't see national polls being off by nearly six points.

At most, maybe two, which can significantly alter the race anyway (4.5 would be similar to Biden's win in 2020).