Young Voters Have Moved Solidly to Kamala Harris

[applegrove]

Young Voters Have Moved Solidly to Kamala Harris

October 11, 2024 at 2:40 pm EDT By Taegan Goddard 146 Comments

https://www.semafor.com/article/10/11/2024/the-pollster-who-sold-joe-biden-to-gen-z-breaks-down-the-youth-vote-today

"SNIP...............

Pollster John Della Volpe to Semafor: “I think that many folks underestimated the degree to which younger people were looking for political leaders they could connect with. There’s not a lot of daylight in the policy between Harris and Biden, but there’s just a tremendous amount of confidence in Vice President Harris that you can feel from this data. There’s a genuine enthusiasm for voting among Democrats now.”

He added: “And I’ve said, for a decade, that for a Democrat to have a strong chance of winning the Electoral College, you need to be at 60% plus with younger people. It’s going to make the pathway much, much easier. And she’s in the ballpark. She needs to stay there and build.”

.............SNIP"

https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/11/young-voters-have-moved-solidly-to-kamala-harris/

[msongs]

1. one can hope nt

[usonian]

2. Meanwhile, pollsters still call landlines ...

[Jack Valentino]

4. .... and cellphones and online contacts...

Think the pollsters still live in the 1990's, do you?

They're way ahead of you.

here's a hint-- they don't use the 'phone book'. Most pollster phone calls are generated by random phone numbers in the area codes which they target--- so they have no way of knowing if they are calling a landline or a cellphone, unless they ask about it.

[usonian]

6. Well that's news to me. I haven't gotten a pollster call in 75 years.

No wonder they're so wildly inaccurate!

[littlemissmartypants]

5. Hahaha! Who cares?

We learn more useful information from waste water treatment plants than we ever have or ever will from political polling. That's whether they call landlines or use smoke signals.

Statistical analysis can be manipulated to prove or disprove anything. It's a waste of time to look at the numbers when the initial designs of the crap solicitations are so skewed from the beginning.

It's a game played with manipulated numbers that is as accurate as tossing a greased football and trying to catch it.

❤️

[usonian]

7. The questions frame the results.

At least in court, "leading the witness" can be challenged.

I found out only recently that the treasured book "How to lie with statistics" was a trojan.

https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2012/04/27/how-to-mislead-with-how-to-lie-with-statistics/

“How to Lie with Statistics” guy worked for the tobacco industry to mock studies of the risks of smoking statistics (2012)

Remember How to Lie With Statistics? It turns out that the author worked for the cigarette companies. John Mashey points to this, from Robert Proctor’s book, “Golden Holocaust: Origins of the Cigarette Catastrophe and the Case for Abolition”:

Darrell Huff, author of the wildly popular (and aptly named) How to Lie With Statistics, was paid to testify before Congress in the 1950s and then again in the 1960s, with the assigned task of ridiculing any notion of a cigarette-disease link. On March 22, 1965, Huff testified at hearings on cigarette labeling and advertising, accusing the recent Surgeon General’s report of myriad failures and “fallacies.” Huff peppered his attack with with amusing asides and anecdotes, lampooning spurious correlations like that between the size of Dutch families and the number of storks nesting on rooftops–which proves not that storks bring babies but rather that people with large families tend to have larger houses (which therefore attract more storks).

This was all a surprise to me, and I suspect to other statisticians as well. For example, Huff’s activities with the cigarette companies are not mentioned on his Wikipedia page (as of 17 Apr 2012), nor are they mentioned in an article on Huff by probabilist J. Michael Steele from 2005.

Another was when physicists had a convention in Las Vegas. Knowing that the house takes 10% off the top, they knew that gambling was a statistical lose, and didn't gamble. They were told to never come to Las Vegas again.

Las Vegas then got the Raiders ...

[littlemissmartypants]

10. Exactly...

"The questions frame the results."

End of.

[PortTack]

9. Oh boy did you nail that one!

Personally I haven’t paid any attention to polls since ‘18…was skeptical even before too.

[littlemissmartypants]

11. Thanks. ❤️

[Mister Ed]

3. Save yourselves, kids...

Don't worry about me. I'm old, and I'll die. But I need to die knowing you're safe.

I need to die knowing you're safe.

[PortTack]

8. She is the ball park! Hopefully enough so that we might be able to repeal citizens United and the EC

If we could have those two things, the gqp would be hard pressed to win any elections without seriously changing their platform to one that would align more with real ppl.

[Deminpenn]

12. Yesterday, Deadline WH was in a panic because

Trump is courting young white males with ads during football games and other sporting events. OMG!
These young white guys are probably too busy switching to NFL Redzone or between games or looking at their phones to make their next bet or seeing how their fantasy team is doing to notice whatever ads Trump is running.

On a different note, watching Obama's speech at Univ of Pitt, I saw a LOT of enthusiastic young faces in the crowd.

[underpants]

13. Good but Stein/protest votes could be a factor.

My 19 year old (voted yesterday for the first time) says there’s a lot of chatter about voting for Steun or another 3rd party as a protest about Gaza/IDF-Isreal and not being taken for granted. In certain states that could play a role. Just saying.