General Discussion

Pototan

(3,209 posts) Sat Oct 12, 2024, 07:46 AM Oct 2024

Good News, Bad News in NY Times Poll

The good news is Harris up between 3 and 4 points in Pennsylvania. If we can carry Michigan, Wisconsin and Nebraska's 2nd District, we win.

The bad news is we're down between 5 and 6 points in Arizona in this poll.

The latest Times/Inquirer/Siena polls found Donald Trump with a six-point advantage in Arizona, and Kamala Harris with a four-point lead in Pennsylvania.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/12/us/politics/times-siena-arizona-pennsylvania-polls.html

8 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Good News, Bad News in NY Times Poll (Original Post) Pototan Oct 2024 OP

I think this is partly misplaced machismo, not voting for a woman Walleye Oct 2024 #1

The good news far outweighs the bad news! femmedem Oct 2024 #2

Yes, yes....and I know I shouldn't say but arlyellowdog Oct 2024 #3

RSO rso Oct 2024 #4

Thank you displacedvermoter Oct 2024 #5

I wonder if it's because Gallgo is a man and Harris is a woman. Mister Ed Oct 2024 #6

I believe either Gallego is not as far ahead as the polls indicate displacedvermoter Oct 2024 #7

Outliers gonna lie Fiendish Thingy Oct 2024 #8

Walleye

(45,484 posts)

1. I think this is partly misplaced machismo, not voting for a woman

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 07:54 AM

Oct 2024

I don’t think there is anyway we can change the die-hard misogynist who would never vote for any woman, including their mother or sister.

femmedem

(8,566 posts)

2. The good news far outweighs the bad news!

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 07:59 AM

Oct 2024

It hasn't looked likely that Harris would win Arizona for a while, but the other recent polls for PA had me nervous. Up between 3 and 4 points in PA in a reputable poll is fantastic.

arlyellowdog

(1,430 posts)

3. Yes, yes....and I know I shouldn't say but

Reply to femmedem (Reply #2)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 08:06 AM

Oct 2024

Nate Silver said The NY Times was one of the poll that wasn’t weighing for Trump voters. I do think the outreach isn’t as much to Arizona and Georgia because the GOP is so crooked there.

rso

(2,682 posts)

4. RSO

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 08:14 AM

Oct 2024

How can Gallego be winning by 7 points and Harris losing by 5 in Arizona ?

displacedvermoter

(5,001 posts)

5. Thank you

Reply to rso (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 08:56 AM

Oct 2024

I believe the same about North Carolina, Stein being up by anywhere from 10 to 17 points there bodes well for Harris, it would seem.

Mister Ed

(6,992 posts)

6. I wonder if it's because Gallgo is a man and Harris is a woman.

Reply to rso (Reply #4)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 08:59 AM

Oct 2024

That's sheer speculation on my part, but I wonder.

Gallego's opponent, Kari Lake, is also a woman. Sure, she's crazy as a bedbug, but so is Donald Trump.

Maybe AZ voters are willing to vote for a crazy man like Trump, but not a crazy woman like Lake (or even an eminently sane woman like Harris).

displacedvermoter

(5,001 posts)

7. I believe either Gallego is not as far ahead as the polls indicate

Reply to Mister Ed (Reply #6)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 09:42 AM

Oct 2024

or Harris is ahead despite what the polls say, I think it is one of the two.

Fiendish Thingy

(24,098 posts)

8. Outliers gonna lie

Reply to Pototan (Original post)

Sat Oct 12, 2024, 10:07 AM

Oct 2024

NYT polls have been outliers all year, Oversampling republicans, men, rural voters.

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