NBC explains how their "tied" poll is just a guess

[arlyellowdog]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/different-turnout-models-change-nbc-news-poll-results-rcna175096 So they don’t expect a great turnout for Harris. So that reinforces what DUers are saying. Forget polls GOTV.

[Ferrets are Cool]

1. So they don't expect a great turnout for Harris.

[underpants]

2. Really. With all the new voter registrations and volunteers yeah probably means nothing

[Amishman]

5. The voter registration data is a double edged sword

PA looks to be the pivot and most critical state, and we're losing ground in voter registration here at an alarming pace.

Even Kamala taking the helm hasn't stopped it.

I am very worried that PA is in the early stages of the red shift that has taken Ohio and Florida largely out of play.

This looks to be absolutely terrifyingly close to me.

[arlyellowdog]

10. Is that current information?

[obamanut2012]

11. No, they created it from from air

[Amishman]

12. Unfortunately yes

Articles on it from three weeks back:

https://www.spotlightpa.org/news/2024/09/pennsylvania-voter-registration-2024-election-democrat-republican-independent-harris-trump/

https://www.phillyburbs.com/story/news/politics/elections/state/2024/09/19/pa-voter-registration-debate-taylor-swift-endorsement-sets-record-kamala-harris-donald-trump-electio/75254356007/

Current data shows the trend continues

https://www.pa.gov/en/agencies/dos/resources/voting-and-elections-resources/voting-and-election-statistics.html

The articles state

3.92 million registered D
3.58 million registered R

Current data shows

3.95 million registered D
3.62 million registered R

So in the three weeks since those articles, the Pubs trimmed our registration advantage by another 10k

It is a significant and active trend

[arlyellowdog]

13. People who register as Republican is high where Trump has rallys

And I can see that those are places where more people put down their party affiliation. But party affiliation is not necessary in Pennsylvania. They count “no affiliation” but people can also leave it blank. In other areas that is a sizable number of new registrations. Just saying, it’s not all Republican or Democrat. Many young people would never identify by party.

[Amishman]

17. This is true, but the trend isn't good no matter what

The share of independents we need to win is higher than it has been in any previous PA election cycle.

We can try to explain it any number of ways - but none of them spin a positive picture for our future in this state. Plus your comment that young voters don't want to be part of a party - our party - wouldn't speak well of our outreach towards them and I rather hope that is not a major factor.

[-misanthroptimist]

16. I wouldn't count FL out just yet.

Between Amendments 3 and 4, a lot of young voters -particularly women- are going to be voting this year. Many for the first time.

Were I running the Harris Campaign, I wouldn't expend a lot of effort in FL, but I wouldn't ignore it, either. There's a reasonable chance FL goes blue this time around.

[arlyellowdog]

6. My Republican daughter-in-law is going Harris

Based on women’s health

[OrlandoDem2]

3. I'd rather be in the Harris/Walz camp!! And the Women's March on 11/2 will have an impact!!

We need women ro save America!

I say that as a man!

https://www.womensmarch.com/

GOTV!

[-misanthroptimist]

19. And as a man I agree with you! nt

[-misanthroptimist]

4. Harris will win by 6-8% nationally

She will take the Electoral College with at least 308 EVs, possibly as many as 360. I'll make my final prediction a day or two before the election, if I can. There are so many garbage polls out there, and the quality of even the good polls has deteriorated, that it will difficult to weed out the noise. It may be impossible.

[KC19]

7. Thanks

Thank you for posting this! I was searching DU for someone providing reassurance this morning.

[Polly Hennessey]

8. I know KC19 what is going on? Someone is being positive.

Lordy, Lordy!

[-misanthroptimist]

14. I stuck that "optimist" in my screen name for a reason.

But it's not just optimism. I have done some cursory digging through the numbers. Nothing in either campaign since then leads to me believe that those numbers I cite aren't a good estimate.

[Polybius]

23. Any Senate predictions?

Last edited Sun Oct 13, 2024, 10:32 PM - Edit history (1)

That's the only thing that worries me, with MT gone.

[-misanthroptimist]

24. Not a one, sorry

The Senate and House races would take far too much time for me to review them properly.

[arlyellowdog]

9. Spoke to my Georgia sister

She said EVERY voter in Georgia (including her) is a closet voter. Too scary to say. I’ll be honest, even here in deep blue Arlington Va, I don’t see bumper stickers or that many Harris/Walz signs (compared to say Obama). But I’ll bet we go like 96% Harris. Seriously, would you identify yourself as a Harris voter in a poll in Georgia or even here in Youngkin’s Virginia. What is underestimated is the level of fear.

[obamanut2012]

22. Nova will be blue as always!

[obamanut2012]

15. What DUers aren't expecting a food turnout?

I haven't seen anyone say that but trolls.

[iemanja]

18. It helps to pay attention to the margin of error

None of the differences in those polling scenarios are outside the margin of error, so the differences say very little. They are not drastic.

People and the media put great stock in small differences in polls, when they are well within the margin of error. If a result is not outside the margin of error, one can't declare a clear leader. When multiple polls, however, show one candidate leading, the trend reveals something.

[-misanthroptimist]

20. The trend can reveal a couple of things

Yes, it could mean real movement towards one candidate.

But it can equally mean nothing at all.

Another thing it can mean is that the LV models are wrong -and they frequently are. (See: Red Wave 2022). And in the absence of anything dramatic in the race, this is the most likely explanation of the polls.

[iemanja]

21. Good point that the trend may reveal nothing

but the red wave was a media narrative spun from relatively small polling differences. The media makes a big deal about small polling differences to suit whichever narrative they want to tell (eg. Trump is surging), when the numbers don't support it. This is not to say polls are necessarily accurate or reliable, but the narrative spin often far outweighs any polling differences.