Dr. Jason Johnson: there is a chance that Trump could lose anywhere from 5-8% of the GOP vote to Harris

[Dennis Donovan]

Dr. Jason Johnson
Doomscrolling the polls isn't going to do anyone any good, they change everyday. But I do think there is a chance that Trump could lose anywhere from 5-8% of the GOP vote to Harris this November. And that may matter in key swing states
Video in tweet below
10:38 AM · Oct 13, 2024

It should be a fucking blowout given how the Trump campaign has nothing in their platform to help the middle class...

Link to tweet

[lees1975]

1. I think 8% is the least he could lose, I've seen experts I trust say as much as 12-15%.

And 8% would make a difference in every swing state, given that the margins in those states are within a couple of percentage points, according to the polls if you believe them. I don't think the polls are factoring this fact in. And if he loses that much of the GOP vote, her leads among Independent voters will be lopsided in her direction. That would be fatal to his chances.

[Dave Bowman]

3. Fingers crossed.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

2. That would be HUGE....

As Liz Cheney, Adam Kinzinger, and other Republicans, Cassidy Hutchinson, have said...."Voting for Kamala Harris does not make you a Democrat! It makes you a PATRIOT if you believe in Freedom and Democracy."

Perhaps the message is getting through. Save the country in November from a wanna-be DICKtator. There will be another day to work out problems.

[bucolic_frolic]

4. 3% of Haley voters will stay home. /nt

[GoodRaisin]

5. That will help offset what we lose because of Jill Stein.

[samnsara]

6. i heard 9% from someone else..

....i dont think even those on Faux Gnus will vote for trump..they deal with his insanity every day and they arent stupid. They know what a trump presidency will do to america and even if (WHEN) he loses they will still get him on their show.

[Ursus Rex]

7. I hope so but don't see how that happens.

I don’t see any weakening of his support here in GA, and I’m in purple Atlanta. The exurbs and downstate are even redder and more entrenched. I realize this is anecdotal but it’s also a good check on being over-optimistic. Things may be different in swingier states and states where there is a more flexible R population.

[stopdiggin]

8. which (given the utter depravity and unfitness of their candidate) would ONLY be notable

if another 20-30 percent refused to vote period.
The more singular feature here (and remains unchanged) is that it seems that something like fully 90% of the Republican party appears - despite all reason and any sense of decency - prepared to vote for him!

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -