Michigan is still Harris by .2 if you use the non-winger polls:

[lindysalsagal]

https://www.270towin.com/2024-presidential-election-polls/michigan

If you average MIRS, Redfield (a winger poll) WSJ (winger) GSG, Quinnipiac, Research, Glengariff, Harris is holding 2 tenths ahead.

Harris can still win if she loses MI but gets PA and North Carolina.

So, it's the 3 states at this point: PA, MI and NC. If Harris steals AZ it's game over. Just like 2020. Entirely possible.

[OLDMDDEM]

1. I early voted for her.

[Johnny2X2X]

2. +0.8 on 538

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/michigan/

I live in Michigan, she's going to win here. We have ease of voting laws here. 9 days of early voing. Same day registration. Our laws ensure people get to vote, that means she has a huge advantage here.

[lindysalsagal]

5. Good to know!

[Sugarcoated]

3. Steal is a poor choice of words

but, yeah I believe right wing polls are skewing the averages in all the swing states and nationally

[lindysalsagal]

7. I think of the mighty RNC and state legislature who believe they can keep the state red.

But it remains to be seen. Since so many people retire there, it's less predictable. There are voters there from all over the northeast.

[lindysalsagal]

4. So far, early voting looks promising: 56% female

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/2024-general-election-early-vote-michigan/

90% of the early vote is age 41 and older. So when the younger women show up later, they can balance out the winger Nov 5 vote.

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. While I applaud your efforts to unskew the polls

I still feel strongly that, at this point, polling averages cannot be trusted.

[Dem4life1234]

8. It comes down to the swing states I hate that it comes down to that

[lees1975]

9. That's 270. She is up almost 1 point on 538 which includes all of the red wave polls.

Which means she will probably carry Michigan by anywhere from 4 to 6 points, given their prior accuracy.

[rogerballard]

10. Early Michigan voter here

I feel pretty confident she will win Michigan. It is ground game and GOTV