A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets

[applegrove]

A Mystery $30 Million Wave of Pro-Trump Bets

October 18, 2024 at 9:32 am EDT By Taegan Goddard 9 Comments

https://politicalwire.com/2024/10/18/a-mystery-30-million-wave-of-pro-trump-bets/

"SNIP............

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump “are neck and neck in the polls. But in one popular betting market, the odds have skewed heavily in Trump’s favor, raising questions about a recent flurry of wagers and who is behind them,” the Wall Street Journal reports.

“Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets.”

Said Musk: “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line.”

“But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.”

.............SNIP"

Applegrove:

I bet we seen more patomimes of Trump as the winner in the next 2.5 weeks.

[Autumn]

1. 30 million to the eLooney is pocket change.

[applegrove]

2. Muskox is a prime example of the danger of Citizen's United.

[iemanja]

3. Polymarket has closed betting on the presidential race

I was going to put money on Harris, if I could figure out the crypto. But now it says betting is not available on that race.

[moonscape]

6. Yeah, same thought, but my

unwillingness to invest the time and energy to learn/manage crypto and even the betting, made me demure.

[iemanja]

14. I guess betting from the US isn't allowed

which is probably why it says unavailable. I thought betting had closed, but I think I was wrong.

[gab13by13]

4. It's a scam,

TSF is losing badly and articles like this are Hail Mary passes.

[yardwork]

5. Probably Musk.

[Wounded Bear]

8. You see this in sports betting some times...

The big money bettors wait until late to lay bets and change the line, then lay counterbets to take advantage of the shift in odds.

[woodsprite]

9. Polymarket is funded in part by Peter Theil,

And one of their mouthpieces is Nate Silver.

[eppur_se_muova]

10. THIS plus Putin probably invested in a few shares of the candidate. nt

[SouthernCal_Dem]

11. I've been following this closely

Betting markets are usually decent at projecting outcomes, but not in this case. it looks like 1 person with multiple accounts has moved the betting markets. these are not very deep and liquid markets so they can be easily moved.

I'm also reading it might be a crypto trader based in France.

Anyways, betting markets don't drive election outcomes.

[peggysue2]

12. Polymarket is an off-shore, crypto-platform

American citizens can't even participate. So you have billionaire participants gaming the numbers in the betting market to accompany the flood of trash polls skewing the averages.

Why?

To soothe Donnie's fragile ego. To flood the zone with BS. And to serve as a predicate for howls of fraud and rigged elections in the aftermath.

Trump is losing, flailing, giving way to exhaustion while slipping further into dementia. The bogus numbers paint a rosier picture for the MAGA community and donors. If you're throwing money at Agent Orange now, you might as well be lighting it on fire.

No worry. The Trump campaign will happily take that money and stuff it into their pockets and/or spend it on the legal fees to criss-cross the courts in their final attempt to install their Sun-God and his quisling VP.

Heads down. Eyes on the Prize.

We're going to win this thing!

[Basso8vb]

13. BS

Yawn.