Please ignore the polling concern trolls.

[ananda]

I put them all in the trash immediately.

What we know to be true is this.

Harrris and Walz are winning soundly, mounting
a great campaign.

The Senate is iffy, but possibly winnable.

The House is winnable.

Let's vote and get out the vote and win this!

When we fight, we win !!!!!!!

[kevink077]

1. All about turnout

Polls this close to the election are unreliable anyway . The election is now and turnout is great!

[ananda]

2. Agree. So far so good!

Even Allred is fighting in Texas.

My friend is blockwalking with him tomorrow.

I'll let y'all know how that goes.

[kevink077]

11. This and Nebraska

Are the races to watch in the Senate. As much as I am rooting for Tester.. he has been living on borrowed for years and I think Texas is our best shot. Maybe Nebraska too..

[servermsh]

3. I agree

I was a little more concerned three weeks ago when Trump was doing a lot of appearances every day. But now he's falling apart and cancelling interviews. Not a good look.

[LeftInTX]

8. He had a rally tonight.

I think his demise is overrated.

[servermsh]

9. Sure...

but he didn't look that great and looked weird wandering around when his microphone went out.

[Jack Valentino]

36. His microphone went out?

Too bad that didn't happen nine years ago, for the duration...

[Ferrets are Cool]

17. It's amazing what drubs can do.

[bdamomma]

4. K&R

nt

[surfered]

5. Mark McKinnon was on MSNBC last night. He is a GOP

Political consultant and worked for George W Bush. He is convinced Harris will win and even voted for her.

He says she has the gender advantage (there are more women) and the enthusiasm advantage. He agrees that we should ignore the polls.

This helps lower my anxiety level.

[Jack Valentino]

37. There has never been a campaign in my lifetime, where so many prominent members

of one party publicly announced their support for the presidential nominee of the opposing party. It is rather unprecedented.


The only one that comes close was 'Democrats for Nixon' in '72---
but those were generally rank and file Democrats---
Don't recall that any Democratic politicians broke ranks for Nixon,
unless it was in the south...


I don't see how Drumph can possibly win, under these circumstances-- and several recent polls have shown that as much as 11% of the Republican base are not supporting him in this election. (The same poll that gave him 89% Republican support said 96% of Democrats are supporting Harris.)

[misanthrope]

45. Agreed, the prominent GOPers sounding the alarm on behalf of Harris is unprecedented

You always hear "this is the most important election of our lifetimes," but the number of folks who have stepped forward to work together against Trump makes this sound like the race that really deserves that description.

[paleotn]

41. Same things I've been thinking for weeks now.

As for polling, remember the "red wave" that wasn't? Chew on that, concern trolls.

https://www.wral.com/story/the-red-wave-that-wasn-t-experts-explain-how-the-polls-got-the-midterm-elections-wrong/20570678/

American society is in flux and changing rapidly to the point that even good, professional polling is struggling to keep up. Usually, they're fighting the last "war", i.e. making adjustments that made sense in 2020 and 2022 post mortem analysis, but may not be as valid anymore. And completely missing what may be the real drivers. Who shows up at the polls is all that really matters but predicting that and adjusting polling accordingly is terribly hard. What I do know is the energy is on our side and Roe still hangs heavy in many minds. I'm seeing little excitement on the right. Certainly not the enthusiasm in that camp we saw in 2016 or 2020. It feels same old, same old.

I'm thinking, a lot of the Trump yokels won't even show up. Those Republican voters who rarely if ever voted before Trump came along. They showed up in 2020 and lost. They might not be too keen on doing that again. A waste of time in their minds. Donny certainly isn't doing a hell of a lot to energize them. His ground game is a mess of paid door knockers and grift and Elmo's stupid shit isn't helping.

[Kingofalldems]

6. They search the internet for bad polls, then run to DU and post them.

[samnsara]

7. mideas touch interviewed two guys who developed some form of polling..

..or something...and they said trumps people are using their formula and pumping it up with a bunch of almost fake polls thus skewing the numbers toward trump. These two guys explained it so even I could mostly understand them and after watching that interview i am absolutely not worried about trump winning.

[Ferrets are Cool]

16. That video should be a must watch for ALL DUers.

[buzzycrumbhunger]

39. Here's hoping...

… that works the opposite of how they expect and merely makes people that much more determined to vote blue to thwart him!

[canetoad]

10. Yep

My trashing hand is working overtime.

[iemanja]

12. edited

Last edited Fri Oct 18, 2024, 09:55 PM - Edit history (1)

ETA: It turns out that I'm wrong. The person providing incomplete but not false information.

[Iggo]

13. I always have and I always will.

And the polls, too.

[Think. Again.]

14. Fixed it for ya...

"Please ignore the p olling concern tr olls."

[ananda]

28. Thank you!

[Think. Again.]

35. 👍

[Ferrets are Cool]

15. Some seem to not know, or don't care that they polls are wildly skewed.

26 polls are neutral.
23 are republican skewed.
1 is Democrat skewed.

It should not be difficult to understand what is happening.

[Polybius]

18. So what do only those 26 say?

[TwilightZone]

20. There are hundreds of polling organizations.

538 has 282 ranked and a couple hundred more unranked, so I'm not sure where the 50 total comes from.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/

Someone in another thread had a list of allegedly right-skewed and highly-biased polls and several of them shouldn't have been on the list. Emerson, for example, is slightly left-of-center.

https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/emerson-college-polling-bias-and-credibility/

I think we have a tendency to declare any poll that has results we don't agree with right-wing and biased. Many actually are, of course, but such claims rarely provide any supporting documentation.

[Ferrets are Cool]

27. People, including myself, are going to believe what they want to believe.

I believe we are going to win in a landslide. YMMV

[Tarc]

19. Ever since Susan "I'm Almost Very Concerned" Collins consistently trailed outside the m.o.e. in 2020

then won by 8 points, I consider political opinion polling to be dead. Dead dead, dead, deader than phrenology or blood-letting.

[appmanga]

40. Three days before the 2000 election...

...Al Gore was down in the national polls by five to nine points. Polls haven't been worth a damn for a long time.

[disappearingboy]

22. Damn the torpedoes!

Full speed ahead!

[wnylib]

23. I trash them without opening the thread. If I open a thread which

doesn't mention in its title that it is about polls and I find that it is, it goes in the trash, too.

I have no interest in or use for the polls regardless of whom they say is winning. Their reliability is too unpredictable to waste time and energy on.

To paraphrase the pickpocket in Casablanca, "Trolls. Trolls everywhere."

[Dem2theMax]

24. I ignore all the polls and all the trolls.

The only thing that counts is the vote on Election Day.

[Tarheel_Dem]

25. I always ignore them.

[lees1975]

26. WCPT Chicago, Joan Esposito had a guest host who brought in a polling statistical anaylist

who basically pointed out the errors being made in polling data and the way the pollsters are making those mistakes. She demonstrated, from actual raw data, that the claim black voters are supporting Harris less than they did Biden, and that Trump picking them up was not only false, but that her support among black voters is actually higher than Clinton's was in 2016. The "Black men are gravitating to Trump" line was also dealt with. There has been a little bit of a drift, but it has been countered by the support Harris gets from black women, which is up more than black men support is down, and she also pointed out that turnout among black women is more than double that of black men. So she has actually gained among black voters. And she didn't really understand where the claim was coming from that her latino support was down because even conservative polls are measuring it at higher levels than Biden or Clinton got, and she's at 61-32 among Latino voters with Trump. Thats up 2 on her side and down 2 on his.

Recording of her show is available on Monday.

[disappearingboy]

29. That's definitely good to hear.

On November 5th, I don't want to mourn. I want to celebrate. I want to heave a huge sigh of relief, have a glass of white wine, and toast the results.

[ananda]

30. Thank you. That was very helpful.

And it makes sense.

[4lbs]

31. If "Lyin' Ted" Cruz loses next month, the Senate is OURS.

If he somehow squeaks by yet again, the Senate will be a toss-up.

[lees1975]

42. I'm not counting Tester out yet. West Virginia, where Dems have a great candidate, is a loss.

But Democrats have several opportunities for pick-ups, and Republicans are worried about them, because the RNC doesn't have the cast to really help them out a lot.

Collin Allred may be the most likely pickup, in Texas. Incredible as it may seem, the debate he had with Cruz turned out well for him. Some polling shows him in the lead.

Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in Florida is also running strong, and I think Florida Democrats are being historically underpolled. That's a turnout race right there if there ever was one.

Lucas Kunce is running very strong against Josh Hawley in Missouri, especially after their recent debate. He's come from a long way back and he may just pull this out.

A lot of people are talking about Nebraska, but that won't net us a liberal Senator. Send these candidates some money if you''re not tapped out. Kind of like betting on them. I've done it, you do it too.

[4lbs]

43. Yeah, we just might end up winning the Senate.

I can dream of Kamala being POTUS, a Democratic House, AND a Democratic Senate.

We won't get 60 in the Senate, so all the Republicans will have is to filibuster, but that's why I said in a previous post to make them actually do it. Make the American people watch them do nothing but try in vain to obstruct.

[wryter2000]

32. I'm already ignoring them

Kamala is going to win. The Senate is iffy, but Colin Allred may beat Cruz.

The polls and the pundits are pushing a horse race for their own reasons.

[Klarkashton]

33. It runs counter to basic common sense that trump

Would win. I say this from the experience in 2020, the Newsom recall and the 2022 "red wave" .
Also OZ in PA and the two Senators in GA.

[LudwigPastorius]

38. "It runs counter to basic common sense that...

Trump would win.”

It did on November, 8 2016 too, yet he did.

[Wednesdays]

34. Amen.

[Maru Kitteh]

44. The "concern" traffic is through the roof!