NBC News: Trump vows to deport millions. Builders say it would drain their crews and drive up home costs.

[Dennis Donovan]

NBC News - Trump vows to deport millions. Builders say it would drain their crews and drive up home costs.

While some contractors dismiss the plan as political rhetoric, many say they can’t afford to lose more people from an aging, immigrant-dependent workforce still short of nearly 400,000 people.

Oct. 19, 2024, 7:00 AM EDT
By Jing Feng and Nicole Acevedo

Both presidential candidates promise to build more homes. One promises to deport hundreds of thousands of people who build them.

Former President Donald Trump’s pledge to “launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” would hamstring construction firms already facing labor shortages and push record home prices higher, say industry leaders, contractors and economists.

“It would be detrimental to the construction industry and our labor supply and exacerbate our housing affordability problems,” said Jim Tobin, CEO of the National Association of Home Builders. The trade group considers foreign-born workers, regardless of legal status, “a vital and flexible source of labor” to builders, estimating they fill 30% of trade jobs like carpentry, plastering, masonry and electrical roles.

Nearly 11 million undocumented immigrants were living in the U.S. as of 2022, the latest federal data shows, down from an 11.8 million peak in 2007. The construction sector employs an estimated 1.5 million undocumented workers, or 13% of its total workforce — a larger share than any other, according to data the Pew Research Center provided to NBC News. Industry experts say their rates are higher in Sun Belt states like Florida and Texas, and more pronounced in residential than in commercial construction.

/snip

NBC Politics
Donald Trump’s pledge to “launch the largest deportation operation in the history of our country” would jeopardize construction firms already facing labor shortages, regardless of legal status, and push record home prices higher, experts say.

12:00 PM · Oct 19, 2024

Link to tweet

[surfered]

1. In my part of the world, the following are heavily dependent on migrant workers

Agriculture, framing of new homes. foundation work, roofing, highway paving, and maids for hotels and motels. I have no knowledge if they are legal or not.

We live in a beach town and short term rentals have driven up housing cost and dried up reasonable long term rentals making it too expensive for people who work here to live here.

I do know that local businesses hire legal foreign workers w/green cards from Jamaica to Eastern Europe in their retail shops and stores and provide them housing.

One of my favorite local restaurants went out of business because they couldn’t get kitchen help. The commute from the mainland is to difficult and it’s hour and a half per day for an 8 hr job. Commuting also costs $36 a day per the IRS mileage rate. That’s more than 2 hrs of work at the going hourly rate.

[PA Democrat]

2. And those migrants spend money and pay taxes here in the US contributing to the economy.

If Trump deports them, there will be far reaching negative consequences.

Trump's lack of understanding of BASIC economics is shocking. Yesterday the idiot claimed to have educated the Bloomberg reporter Micklethwait on tariffs because Micklethwait didn't understand how they worked.

[Prairie Gates]

3. Whenever Trumpies are confronted with the actual logistics of his policy proposals

They all say "Oh, he's just saying that." Or, "It's a metaphor." Or, "He'll just get rid of the bad, leaving the good intact." It really is fantasy land with these people. I still fail to see why overtime shouldn't be taxed, for instance. Overtime pay itself is a government regulation on business, but why should non-exempt employees get taxless hours while exempt em ployees (who often work "overtime" on their regular salaries) get none? It makes no sense in any direction, and is just an obvious bribe-promise to a voting constituency. But more importantly, it won't get actually approved. A GOP Congress under Trump would be more likely to eliminate overtime pay completely (which would also eleiminate the tax, I suppose!) than they are to figure out a formula for that. It's ridiculous. So I guess the "He's just saying that" is closest to the truth.

[JCMach1]

4. 30%, that is a lie. Closer to 90%.

[moondust]

5. Much, much easier and much less costly

to simply deport TSCF. Does Elba have any vacancies?