How's early voting looking so far in the swing states?

[Polybius]

I remember hearing last week that the first day got record turnout. Did the trend continue?

Is there an accurate way to tell who's voting so far by Party?

[DetroitLegalBeagle]

1. I've read its breaking records in a number of states

How it looks though, not a clue. I would hesitate to read too much into the early vote numbers unless they definitively know whether that person is a registered Dem or Rep. Michigan, for example, does not have party registration. So any site claiming x number of Dems/Rep voted early in Michigan is basically just guessing. Only exception to that would be if they break it down by county. If, for example, a blue county was smashing records while a neighboring red county isn't, that could bode well for us. But it also could mean nothing if the bulk of the red county voters go for in person on election day.

[BlueInPhilly]

2. Georgia is very tight

Ballots cast to date: 1,378,902
D: 45%
R: 50%
I: 5%

Ballots yet to be returned or cast:294,350
D: 57%
R: 35%
I: 8%

Total early voting (cast and requested)
D: 788,239
R: 792,423
I: 92,485

The difference between 2 parties is a mere + 0.3% R.

The results hinge on GOTV and how the independents vote. Given the consistent polling that DT is ahead in GA by 3% - 4%, the early voting results are encouraging.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/georgia-results

[fierywoman]

3. Are all the pissed off about Dobbs R women voting R? What % of I's are new young POC voters?

[LisaL]

4. The party registration is not real information, it's being modeled.

So who knows how accurate that model actually is.

[brer cat]

5. GA doesn't have registration by party. How do they know?

[Polybius]

6. Wait, so they are actually slightly ahead in GA?

How can this be deemed "encouraging," given that we were anticipated to significantly surpass the Republicans? In 2020, Democrats enjoyed a substantial lead in early voting. Am I misunderstanding the situation?

[BlueInPhilly]

8. Very slightly ahead

Yes, but only by 0.3%. Compared to the polls which have consistently shown DT ahead by 3% to 4%, the reality of the early votes is so much better. It’s also notable that the GOP has been encouraging early voting this cycle. And remember, this is GA, home state of Newt Gingrich, the architect of the clusterfuck politics we have now.

I do not know enough about how the party affiliations were estimated, so I would assume that they are accurate. The demographics by age and gender are in the link:

By gender: 55% / 59% are women
By age group: ~75% are 50+ years old

There are still so many unknowns: cross party votes, independents, etc., but I find 0.3% to be more encouraging than 3-4% predicted by the polls.

This early, raw numbers do not mean anything unless benchmarked against something else. I benchmarked against the polls.

[Polybius]

11. We were expected to be substantially ahead at this point

At this juncture in 2020, we were significantly ahead; therefore, even a 5-point lead now would be concerning. However, we are virtually tied.

In Pennsylvania, Democrats are leading with 64% compared to Republicans 27%.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/pennsylvania-results

[BlueInPhilly]

15. 2020 vs 2024

We were ahead in early voting in 2020 because A$$hole discouraged his supporters from voting early and/or by mail. (Also, Ds took Covid seriously and voted by mail.)

This cycle, there is no such discouragement. Actually, the opposite is true - Rs have been encouraged to vote.

2020 may not be a good benchmark for 2024. We’re doing well.

[Wiz Imp]

7. Tom Bonior who runs the early vote aggregator site "TargetEarly" is very positive about what he sees

Here is a link to the site. It can be a little difficult to understand.

https://targetearly.targetsmart.com/

I recommend watching this Meidas Touch video. Tom Bonior gives his analysis of the early voting so far and Simon Rosenberg gives his opinion of the overall state of the race. They're both very good.

[W_HAMILTON]

9. Very good -- link here:

https://election.lab.ufl.edu/early-vote/2024-early-voting/

[Polybius]

13. Thanks!

Looks like great news, especially PA. GA sadly doesn't report which Party voted. NV looks concerning, but we don't need it. We win PA and it's likely over.

[Emile]

10. When we voted at our courthouse last week I asked

if a lot of people have been voting early. She told me they never had this many people voting early and they were breaking records. This is a rural county too. In the past early voters always favored Democrats.

[PeaceWave]

12. What info do we have on Michigan, Wisconsin and Nevada?

[Polybius]

14. Here:

Michigan: 54% Dem, 36% Rep
Wisconsin: 40% Dem, 19% Rep
Nevada: 40% Dem, 35% Rep

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/nevada-results

Just click "Find your state" to go to your state of choice.

[rollin74]

16. here are some numbers and analysis about Nevada from Jon Ralston

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/the-early-voting-blog-2024