Are We Gonna Be Ok?

[babylonsister]

Are We Gonna Be Ok?
Published by digby on October 22, 2024


One of Obama’s top strategy and data guys, Patrick Dillon, has written a statement today that I think you may want to read. It’s not just phony Hopium, it’s based on educated analysis, experience and possibly some inside knowledge.

Anyway, I don’t know if this will be real or not and he admits he doesn’t know either. But this is his best guess. An excerpt:

My texts are full these days of “are we gonna be okay?” and, then, a beat later, “are you really sure?” Over and over, my answers are basically “yes” and “as sure as I can be.”

snip//

So, to save some time and in the spirit of “to hell with it,” here in one place is what data and my gut tell me I believe: she’ll win and outperform the polls. Trump will be rejected, as he has been in every election since he first became president – 2018, 2020, 2022, 2023 – either where he was on the ballot directly or by proxy through candidates closely identified with him, including in multiple of the same swing states we’re all obsessing over now.

snip//

We’re going to see afresh what’s been staring us in the face since 2022: Dobbs was a political earthquake, with aftershocks still reverberating out. It wasn’t just digested and processed in 2022 and now behind us. As much as Roe catalyzed a new movement for its opponents, brought in new groups of voters (many crossing old partisan lines), and energized activists for decades; Dobbs is doing the same here and now.

snip//

We will also find, like Democrats in Virginia in 2021 when we were painfully shown that we could fall even further in the rural reaches, the floor even lower than we imagined, that Republicans in 2024 had further to fall in the suburbs and among college-educated voters – and did.

The almost comically late and slapdash, make it up as we go along, build the plane in the air, field effort run by people with more money than political or managerial sense (ahem, Elon) will, unsurprisingly, fail at the one thing they admit they very much need: sufficiently getting his low-propensity supporters to the voting booth. And it will be substantially outclassed by the massive, well-trained and targeted first-Biden now-Harris field operation that has been building on the ground all year.

more...

https://digbysblog.net/2024/10/22/are-we-gonna-be-ok/

[samplegirl]

1. I hope

I can't sleep and very depressed.

[OverBurn]

5. Yes. Me too.

[Betty Boom]

8. Same here

Anxiety is generally not my thing, but mine gets worse every day. I absolutely positively cannot go through what I went through on election night 2016. I just can’t do it.

[mountain grammy]

11. Same.

Seeing commercials for election countdown programs makes me want to jump out of my skin. They make it seem so normal.

[Wounded Bear]

2. His blog to god's inbox...

[Whatthe_Firetruck]

7. Digby is a her. N/t

[babylonsister]

12. But the statement is from a 'him'...

One of Obama’s top strategy and data guys, Patrick Dillon, has written a statement today that I think you may want to read.

[Whatthe_Firetruck]

13. Sorty, missed that. N/t

[usonian]

3. It's real.

AI would not have misspelled "fasacist"

Until it learns to disguise itself.

[dchill]

4. Remember Roevember.

[RSH]

6. I agree. Read an article that claimed McConells poll shows them ending up with 50 senators but I think we win a trifecta

[SomedayKindaLove]

9. Harris is +12 women over 50

From what Biden did in 2020. It’s over.

[UTUSN]

10. K&R