The latest NY Times average of the polls say the election is a dead heat in the swing states, all within MOE.

[JohnSJ]

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/elections/polls-president.html

National Poll:
Harris 49%
trump 47%

Michigan ›
Harris less than 1
Aug.Sept.Oct.40%50%
48%
48%



North Carolina ›
Trump less than 1
Aug.Sept.Oct.40%50%
48%
48%



Nevada ›
Harris less than 1
Aug.Sept.Oct.40%50%
48%
48%



Pennsylvania ›
Harris less than 1
Aug.Sept.Oct.40%50%
48%
48%



Wisconsin ›
Harris less than 1
Aug.Sept.Oct.40%50%
48%
49%



Georgia ›
Trump +2
Aug.Sept.Oct.40%50%
48%
49%

Arizona ›
Trump +2

[2naSalit]

1. Suuuure.

[JT45242]

2. The overlords have spoken...thus it is

Remember the forgotten days when the NYT was a news source and not a propaganda mouthpiece for a billionaire...those were good times

[DeepWinter]

3. Because I keep seeing

Polls both left and right being so close, it doesn't matter who is actually ahead. It is close. That's all you can read out of it.

[kerouac2]

4. Does not account for GOP shenanigans

God only knows how many votes will be lost or invalidated. And even then, who knows if the state will accept and sign off on the vote count if run by GOP. They clearly have no problem lying and stealing and generally have no accountability or consequences. If they get trump in, they will be rewarded.

[RJ_MacReady]

5. the NYT

And Siena college just aren't credible anymore.

[Amishman]

8. Is early voting data credible? Because PA and NV are worrying me

Pubs have an early turnout lead in NV.

Pub early voting share in PA well above their 2020 levels.

Even reputable polls have been showing a very tight race for weeks, and too many have been hand waving them away.

In several states early voting is now doing the same (though GA early voting is solid)

[RJ_MacReady]

21. she's ahead

Early voting heavily favors Harris.

[brush]

6. The MSM, cable outlets and online ones as well are all pushing and so invested in pushing the horserace narrative that..

the election is so close. They've been doing it and repeating it so often that it's sickening. But they've been wrong before and IMO they're wrong again.

I think VP Harris wins it going away, and I want this over with so she and Gov. Wals can get on with trying to unite this county and fixing the what can be fixed about it.

[Ferrets are Cool]

7. Of course they did.

What a joke they have become.

[Lonestarblue]

9. The NYT published an opinion piece by Nate Silver this morning and placed it at the top in a prominent position.

Silver opined that his gut was telling him that Trump will win. Nowhere did he, or the Times, disclose that he works for Trump supporter Peter Thiel. That is so dishonest.

[JohnSJ]

11. There is no evidence to support silver's gut. No one really knows what the outcome will be. There are too many

variables at play.

From my perspective, once VP Harris became our candidate, this is one of the best campaigns that I have seen the Democrats run since President Obama ran.

The biggest factor in President Obama's success was unifying the Democrats, progressives, and moderates. I believe VP Harris is on the path with that same strategy, which is the Howard Dean 50-state strategy.

[Sympthsical]

13. It's actually a pretty good article

Setting aside what his gut tells him, he lays out a long list of how the polls could be wrong, why, and what causes for that wrongness might be in play.

A lot of what he wrote reflects my own thinking and attempts at puzzling out what I'm looking at while reading the polls. I have a lot of questions and thoughts about unknowns, speculations, and guesses, and Silver presents most of them in his piece.

I actually think poll-skeptical people on DU would find a lot to hang their hats on in that article.

The whole thrust of the article is basically, "Polls could very well be wrong here."

[Gaytano70]

16. The only probelem with that is

Polls do not determine elections. They are only PART of the scenario, and to place all stock on them is ridiculous. Enthusiasm and momentum drives voter turn out, and votes are what determine elections,

[Sympthsical]

20. Of course

I don't see polls as deterministic. This is an enthusiasm election. Turn out is going to be all that matters at the end of the day, and we won't see what that is until election day itself.

Polls are just for idle interest in how things seem to be going at the moment and making guesses/predictions. It's like fantasy football for political junkies. Fun or interesting in the moment, but ultimately meaningless at the end of the day.

No matter who finds polls interesting or not, we're all going to be in the same place on election night staring at the exact same results.

[Gaytano70]

15. The only thing Nate should be feeling in his "gut"

Is all that maga shit he's been ingesting on a daily basis

[SocialDemocrat61]

10. I really wish that everyone would stop

obsessing over polls. Time is better spent working to get Harris elected.

[Gaytano70]

12. Of course they do.

🙄

[LAS14]

14. GOTV and spread the word!!! nt

[Self Esteem]

17. People can bury their heads but it doesn't change the fact this is a toss-up.

It just doesn't.

All I'll say is that it's a good thing that the Harris camp hasn't openly published its internals like the Biden campaign did at this point four years ago, or this place would lose their mind with how many people have talked themselves into believing Harris is running away with this race. Hint: they're not far off what you see here.

It's a tied race. It will be very close. This thing will be won by enthusiasm and getting out the vote. The Harris campaign thinks that gives them the advantage but concede it's still so close that anything can happen.

[Self Esteem]

18. BTW: this is not the NYT's poll. It's an average of polls.

[JohnSJ]

19. Thanks, I will edit the OP

[republianmushroom]

22. 'That's a real problem!' Experts expose 'potentially serious' issue with polling data

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219596653