A rated Monmouth Likeliest Voter Poll Harris 51% Trump 46%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_102324/




https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/pollster-ratings/ Rated 5 out of 280 polls . Top two percent. That's an A in my book.

[LakeArenal]

1. Love love when out of the MOE. 🗽

[calguy]

2. Take out the republican leaning polls

and this is what you get. Kamala is winning, but still, take nothing for granted. Work like we're ten points behind!

[DEM1955]

3. Most of the polls lie

Kamala is WAY ahead of the orange death.

[samsingh]

4. all the high quality polls are in this range

[Tribetime]

5. Nice....plus our GOTV could net us a couple more %

Ty for posting

[Fiendish Thingy]

6. Thanks for noting the "A" rating is yours, and yours alone

Since 538 hasn’t used letter grades for nearly two years.

If you wanted to make your headline reflect 538’s rating, why not say “highly rated Monmouth” or “#5 rated Monmouth”? Both would be up to date, accurate descriptions.

In any case, unless more national LV polls from highly rated pollsters in the next few days also show Harris’ lead growing, I’d say this 5 point margin (what was the MOE?) is an outlier.

EDIT: all results at link are for Registered, not Likely, voters, with a MOE of 4.1%. The “Likeliest voter” numbers you refer to are those who identified as “highly motivated”, which is a smaller subgroup of the whole sample with an even larger MOE.

We should not be duped into false despair nor lulled into false hope by polls that are clearly unable to ascertain with any accuracy the actual sentiment of the electorate.

The headline of the Monmouth poll report is “Stable Uncertainty”

[Rumaging]

7. I'll take yes for an answer.

# 5 is an A+

[Fiendish Thingy]

11. And a 4.1% MOE by an "A+" pollster is still 4.1% nt

[Rumaging]

13. Buzz Kill (:

Good news is good news.

[Fiendish Thingy]

17. Reality check

Even Monmouth acknowledges the lack of clarity in current polling.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

12. Top two percent

If you're in the top two percent of your field from polling to plumbing you deserve an A.

[Wanderlust988]

14. You need to get off your high horse

No one on here needs to be told by YOU how to think about a poll. The OP posted a poll by a well known and respected pollster. If you don't agree with it, then that's your choice, but don't go telling people they are being duped or lulled. You are not some brilliant data wizard and we're a bunch of idiots. Talk about smug and condescending!

[Fiendish Thingy]

20. You are correct - I'm not a data wizard

But I do have graduate level training in research analysis (my degree is in counseling psychology), but more importantly, I can read about and accept the uncertainty created by the current broken polling system.

I highly recommend this article on the broken polling system:

https://prospect.org/politics/2024-09-25-polling-imperilment/

Also, veteran Democratic operative Simon Rosenberg over at the Hopium Chronicles has written extensively about the corrupt manipulations of polling averages by Red Wave pollsters. Rosenberg is as optimistic as they come, but his optimism is based on verifiable reality, not vibes and feels from flawed polls.

It doesn’t serve our cause for folks to ride the poller coaster of emotions created by flawed polls and the media narratives created by them. Polling is broken, nobody knows what the final outcome will be , but we do know this much:

We have a far superior ground game
There is tremendous enthusiasm both at Harris rallies and in early voting figures.

No one on here needs to be told by YOU how to think about a poll.

DU is a discussion board, and, just like you, I’m discussin’ stuff.

Just because I’m acknowledging the uncomfortable reality about the uncertainty of the next two weeks doesn’t mean I’m smug or condescending.

Consider it a splash of cold water to keep us on our toes.

[Rumaging]

21. Knowledge is knowing a tomato is actually a fruit.

Wisdom is not putting them in your cornflakes. Or anyone else's.

[Fiendish Thingy]

22. And both are important, for different reasons.

Pointing out a tomato is a fruit does not force anyone to put them in their cornflakes, but pointing out a tomato is indeed a tomato and not a giant strawberry, may help them from putting tomatoes in their cornflakes.

[Rumaging]

23. You have the last word.

Be well.

[SoFlaBro]

8. Fucking MAGA leaning polls are fucking up the polling averages and motherfucking sigma variability.

[Quixote1818]

9. K and R

[WarGamer]

10. that's one way to look at that poll.

[Johnny2X2X]

15. 48-45 is the way it's being reported

Still, good result.

[WarGamer]

16. exactly... but it's 1% worse than the September poll

[BannonsLiver]

18. Unskew! Unskew!

[2 Meow Momma]

19. I agree. Looking into some other numbers of this poll could cause heartburn.

I love the happy spin though. And I feel a momentum, but I think I’m cautious in believing it’s a wave.

And yes, I have Hillary PTSD.

[lees1975]

24. I have to wonder when I look at these polling questions and responses

What in the heck are people thinking? And how the heck are they prioritizing their votes?

Across the board, for several weeks, national polls, minus red wave polls, have been pretty consistent with a 51-46 theme. I notice on some of the YouGov polls, and a few Morning Consult, the larger the sample the bigger the Harris lead. And after a list appeared here identifying the red wave polls, I look at the ones that aren't identified that way and they have a common theme. She's leading by at least a point or more in every swing state, 2 in a couple, 3 in at least two, and the numbers are not really bouncing up and down.

I don't know how the composites "average" their data, if they weigh bigger polls more than smaller ones, because I added everything up and divided by the number of polls I counted and it didn't match their number. I came up with, guess what, 51-46 on the national polls and where Pennsylvania now shows her a couple of tenths of a point behind, I got 51-47. But I haven't trusted the polls since the Red Tsunami 2022, so there you have it.