Trump is going to lose. PERIOD!

[Mortos]

I have studied the polls for months. I have read the prognostications of experts and amateurs alike. I religiously read serious mainstream publications and have seen the race for president swing wildly back and forth between three candidates. As the election that seemed like it would drag on for eternity rapidly sprints towards election day (finally), I am curiously calm and confident that Kamala Harris and Tim Walz will, not only win this election but decidedly so. Here are a few reasons why:

1. Simply put, Harris is the far superior candidate. In 100 days, she has been able to raise over a billion dollars, close the gap Trump enjoyed over Biden, and confidently and competently turn a failing Democratic presidential campaign into an incredibly successful one rife with endorsements from a wide spectrum of people who have never supported a Democrat in their lives. Kamala Harris has run a nearly flawless campaign. The false sexist derogatory image with which Trump and his vile cohorts and collaborators have tried to stick on Harris as a "mentally challenged," "dumb," "weak," and "shit Vice President" have fallen flat as she has bested him and his moronic campaign at every turn. Even the right-wing rag, The National Review, published an opinion piece by ultra-conservative writer, Jim Geraghty titled, "The Chronically Underestimated Kamala Harris".

2. Abortion! We have seen and felt the destruction Trump engendered by putting three right-wing nuts on the Supreme Court. Over half of the states have placed cruel restrictions on women's right to choose. Every time abortion has been on any ballot in any state, including conservative republican majority ones, voters (primarily women of all political affiliations) have turned out in record numbers in support. I have heard the arguments that abortion is not a top concern of voters but I think that is a sexist viewpoint. It is a top issue among women and they have seen the fatal consequences of giving the government power over women's life and death decisions.

3. Trump is a buffoon and is rapidly deteriorating both mentally and physically. His antics, while entertaining to his cultish supporters, are repellent to the undecided and swing voters he desperately needs to win. People look at Trump's ability to draw crowds as some sort of political superpower. It is not. In any red state, you can fill up a venue with thousands of screaming fanatics who will dress up in branded clothing and hats to cheer on fake wrestling, car races, monster trucks, state fairs, and any one-hit wonder to half-heartedly belt out a favorite song. Rodney Carrington, a comedy country singer, has made millions by touring the country and singing hits like "Titties and Beer" and "Don't Look Now (Your Mama's Got Her Boobs Out)" to throngs of adoring fans. They show up for the spectacle. Filling up a casino theater does not equate to national popularity or support.

4. Trump Burnout Syndrome - Trump's schtick has become stale. He has to reach further into the sewer to get attention. His weirdness has become impossible to hide. I live in Oklahoma, one of the reddest states in the country. I can count on both hands the number of Trump signs I have seen this election cycle. Hell, I went to Walmart last weekend and only saw two Trump hats...TWO! The overt and in-your-face support for Trump has receded like Stephen Miller's hairline. If he can't whip Okies into a frenzied show of support, his campaign is doomed. Trump is a one-trick pony and everyone has seen every variation of that one trick. The Trump pony is increasingly lame (figuratively and literally) and it's time to put that swayback, ill-tempered, ratty-mained, manure factory out to pasture.

I believe Kamala will win over 300 electoral college votes and 6 million more popular votes than Trump. Her victory will be so obvious and overwhelming, that it will be called on election night as it rapidly becomes clear that a majority of voters will choose competence over chaos and a quiet majority will finally put an end to Trump and his sleazy, fascist, political grab for unchecked power.

I can't wait to see all the upside-down American, Gadsen, and Appeal to Heaven flags hoisted by Trump's dejected and delusional followers (and a Supreme Court Justice's wife) on November 6th. If he foments another insurrection, the results will be much different this time. Trump's resurrectionists will not make out as well as they did on January 6th as law enforcement and the military will be prepared and authorized to put their treasonous acts down quickly and decisively. A prison cell will await the lucky ones, and there will be plenty of GoFundMe-financed funerals for the less tactical members of the Gravy Seals and Ya'll-Queda .

Harris has got this. I am confident she will win. But she needs us to keep fighting every day like Trump is ahead. Donate! Support Harris publicly and proudly! And don't forget to VOTE!

I will be here with you on November 5th, ready to celebrate and give a big old F YOU to Donald Trump and a Hip Hop Hurray for our first female president, Kamala Harris!

When we fight, we win!

[Johnny2X2X]

1. She is ahead

Know this, for all the complaining about the polls, if the polling is correct, Harris will win.

[JT45242]

2. Given voices in the Mormon church, even Utah is in play

FL and OH abortion measures put those former swing states back into competition.

[krawhitham]

5. OH does not have any abortion measures on the ballot, they did in 2022

[Bantamfancier]

33. That is true but,

the Democrats of Ohio know that they are voting to prevent a national ban. We are not going back.

[FreeState]

23. Utah is not in play

And while individual Mormons have voiced support for Harris the Church itself has not.

Harris is way behind in the polls in Utah:

President: general election, Utah, 2024

Oct. 2-7 Trump +14
Oct. 2-7 Trump +13
Oct. 2-7 Trump +18
Oct. 2-7 Trump +16
Sept. 27-28 Trump +15

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/utah/

[OMGWTF]

25. Plus, recreational cannabis is on the ballot in FL which will bring out baby boomers and "da youts".

[Arthur_Frain]

32. No, it most certainly is not.

I wish this at least would stop. Not UT, not WY, not ID. Wasting money and effort in places like that.

And no, neither TX nor FL are anything other than red.

[alarimer]

3. I am not as optimistic as you are.

The only thing that gives me a little bit of hope are how sparsely attended his rallies are. But I don't know if that's because his supporters are tired of him or if they are already decided so the rallies don't matter or if he really is losing support.

[Mortos]

4. I feel your pain

I have had a feeling of calmness come over me, punctuated periodically with brief periods of terror, but I keep returning to the thought that the majority of voting Americans are not cruel or stupid or ignorant enough to re-elect the dumpster fire of fraud and fascism again. Logically, he should be losing by double digits in polling. I think the majority of people have withdrawn from the political sphere because it is so filled with venom and bile but I don't see enthusiasm for Trump. I see him for what he is - a feeble, old, decrepit, racist, sexist, criminal LOSER!

[Aristus]

20. I have great cause for hope.

In 2020, and even in the 2022 mid-terms, there were either no Republican voices raised against Trump and the candidates he endorsed, or else the very few who were public about their opposition were seen as lone voices in the wilderness.

Now, seemingly every prominent Republican in the country with more than two brain cells to rub together has come out in support of Kamala Harris. I strongly suspect they will bring a lot of proxies over with them, leaving only the die-hard, blockheaded Trumpanzees to vote for Anus Mouth.

[OMGWTF]

27. I just completed a 1,278 mile drive through the Midwest from Oklahoma City to Minneapolis and we saw more signs for

Wall Drug than Traitor Tot.

[W_HAMILTON]

37. I have more than enough optimism for the two of us.

People act like he's some goddamn unbeatable figure, when, in fact, we've spent the last six years beating his ass AND, fact of the matter is -- even putting aside unprecedented Russian collusion, Comey's bullshit, the rightwing running a decades-long smear campaign against Hillary, etc. -- we would have beat his ass in 2016 too except for the fact that many voters sat out or cast protest votes because they figured there was zero chance he would win.

You could have rerun the 2016 election the next day and he would have lost. It was a perfect storm of bullshit and he's been losing ever since. His ceiling has been his ceiling this entire time and he's only lost support and he has zero chance of demotivating Democrats and Democratic allies this election like he did *just* enough in 2016 to eke out an Electoral College win.

[Wednesdays]

6. Watch Florida, Ohio, Texas

If any ONE of those fall into the Harris column, it's gonna be a fun night for us!

[Mortos]

7. I originally had Florida in the Democratic Column

But I thought I was being to optimistic. If Florida turns blue, it is over early. Come on, Floridians! Help end this thing so quickly we can all start celebrating before 10pm central time.

[kevink077]

8. I think Texas has best shot

Florida and Ohio are tougher due to demographic changes . MAGAs seem to flock to these states Texas has the urban centers to turn blue IF everyone gets out to vote.

[Mortos]

9. Good God, if we win Texas I will dance like this

https://giphy.com/gifs/KamalaHarris-reaction-kamala-harris-kamalagif-cKtrGGMCsmm3jfpq0l

[wolfie001]

22. I just stole that one and I'm never giving it back!!!

I donated $50 last night so I figured I earned something

[BumRushDaShow]

26. ...

[Mortos]

39. How do you get the gifs to work in DU

I tried and tried.

[lees1975]

12. I think there are a couple of others, one with a tight senate race no one is noticing, that might also go to Harris.

Lucas Kunce is really holding his own against Josh Hawley in Missouri. I have relatives there who say that the ground game appears to be pretty hefty and people are tired of Hawley's corruption going back to his days as attorney general.

I was in Iowa a couple of weeks ago, and I know that reading the signs, i.e. yard signs, is not a good way to predict. But it sure leaves the impression that Harris is doing a lot better there than expected. There's very little recent polling data for Iowa, most of it based on when Biden was still running, which is why I think most of the current polling models are wrong. The areas around Clinton and Dubuque and Davenport seem to be pretty blue.

[Moostache]

18. Kunce is getting 7 votes out of my family this year...

Dad (83), Me (53), Wife (53), Daughter 1 (26), Son 1 (21), Son 2 (19), Daughter-in-law (21) and Daughter 2 (18)...
Hawley is a total scumbag and the fact that he can't yet run away (*pun DEFINTIELy intended) with this race in this state is very telling...

[Miles Archer]

10. If we steadfastly believe that and vote accordingly, then yes...he will.

The #1 challenge we have in front of us is voter apathy / indifference / inaction.

And YES...a LOT of voters who didn't bother to vote in 2016 saw what was at stake in 2020 and VOTED.

I don't have to tell anyone how much MORE is at stake THIS year.

So, if people "get it" and SHOW UP, he's FINISHED.

[ProudMNDemocrat]

11. Voters WILL show up. Women especially if they have daughters and Granddaughters!

I have been doing my best to spread the word however I am able to.

[Miles Archer]

16. Kudos to you for that...

...and I have been doing the same.

We can't turn around the MAGAts (in large numbers) and wean them off of Trump in THIS election cycle.
All we can do is get the message out to EVERYONE ELSE who will listen.

[Mortos]

15. I think people will show up in record numbers

especially first time voters and young women who see the dangers of another Trump dicatorship.

[SomedayKindaLove]

13. Sorry can't find link

But I have read a poll recently that said Harris is +5 with Latino voters (thats +5 from what Biden did in 2020, not +5 over Trump).

She is doing better than Biden did with Asians.

And she is +12 over what Biden did in 2020 with women over 50. Not sure how Trump makes that up unless he draws huge support from the 100M unlikely Americans voters who didn’t vote in 2020.

[Mortos]

14. I believe pollsters

are oversampling Trump voters because they got their asses handed to them two elections in a row.

[Owens]

19. Most pollsters are paid by the MAGAs

They want to give the illusion he is winning and discourage democratic voters. Don't listen to polls, VOTE!! VOTE BLUE all the way down the ballot!

[Skoodydoody5555]

31. Where are you getting that info from?

I keep seeing this

[marble falls]

36. If I were you, I'd google it, check Snopes. Questioning isn't rebuttle around here.

[Skoodydoody5555]

40. Ha

So it’s just coping mechanisms? Got it.

[marble falls]

42. So, you weren't interested in the truth, you were just elbowing ...

... if you really "got it", seek treatment.

[BaronChocula]

17. Maybe trump should put

Rodney Carrington on his playlist.

And great detailed post BTW.

[birdographer]

21. I like your #3

Good perspective. These cult members are, in a word, idiots. They will gather for anything that will get them out of their mothers' basements and away from their wives. I imagine there are many that wouldn't be at Donny's rallies if there was a monster truck rally going on at the same time, or any other event where their kind like to gather. They are just there because it is something to do. These are not people who jog or bike or kayak or work out at the gym. It's rallies, shooting ranges, or beer at the local bar. They don't care about politics or who is running the country. They like the guy who hates who they hate.

[jmowreader]

24. One other reason he'll lose

His policies are unrealistic.

Besides all the fascist shit he wants to do, his platform has five planks in it.

First, he’s going to stop taxing things like tipped income and overtime pay.

Second, he’s going to cut taxes for high-income earners by a lot.

Third, he’s going to balance the federal budget.

Fourth, he’s going to seal the border airtight and deport anyone already here.

And fifth, he’s going to use tariffs to bring back American manufacturing.

It should be apparent that unless he plans to get rid of the Department of the Navy he is never going to both cut taxes and balance the budget…and Congress would go Ape Shit if he tried shutting down the Navy and the Marine Corps. Impeachment hearings for Trump and the troll he runs around with would surely follow and this time they’d stick.

Sealing the border airtight would not only involve building his wall but also stopping every vehicle, ship and airplane coming into this country, completely unloading it and inspecting it for human cargo. There is stuff you can’t do that with because it’s got to be handled with especial care so it won’t melt or explode, and it would cause a bottleneck at the border you wouldn’t believe. And…an East German Border Command in America would blow an even bigger hole in the budget than his tax plans already would.

The factory thing is also problematic because a lot of companies would go under before they got their factories up. I mean, this idiot has built hotels. He knows how long it takes to go from bare ground to overcharging guests. Factories are worse. And if no one’s buying your products because they can’t pay $2500 for what is now a $1250 item, you won’t have the money to build a factory.

It basically comes down to Trump just telling his audience what he thinks they want to hear whether those things are even possible. On the other hand, the things Harris wants to are at least slightly feasible.

[BannonsLiver]

28. And one more. He's going to be heavily reliant on the least reliable voting bloc

And that’s white men under 30. The bro culture. They could show up, or they could play Call of Duty all day. Who’s to say.

[Mortos]

38. That's what I am hoping

The bros will be too busy playing video games and smoking weed to remember the election. Or they will believe Trump and show up to vote en masse on January 5th.

[LiberalLovinLug]

29. I am optimistic as well. I think MAGA is using juiced polls in case they lose

Last edited Thu Oct 24, 2024, 02:18 PM - Edit history (1)

The plan is obvious. They will use those polls they have that show Trump winning, to prove he was robbed.

But I do have a pessimistic side to me. A part of me, I try to keep way down deep, fears the silent Trump voter. Like someone said up thread, his rallys are not well attended, but that's because his voters have already decided he is the One. But they also know, in their own deep down, that he's unhinged, and a narcissist, and authoritarian, and they don't need to see it anymore, but he's their Great White Hope. Someone with zero shame, that will live out their own darkest racist fantasies, comes around rarely, maybe never again. They are ashamed to admit their choice, and maybe even don't feel good about it, but they will do their "duty" and vote Trump to do the dirty deeds that maybe they wouldn't have the stomach for. But secretly wish someone else, like Trump, would for them

Fox News and other RW media have scared them shitless. WE think the country is tilting dangerously close to a dark era of Fascism. THEY are convinced if Trump doesn't get in, America will be dropped into a dark era of Communism, and a rush on boys and girls getting sex changes, and wide open borders letting in hordes of dark skinned criminals and pet chefs.

[Mortos]

34. I agree with you

And we wouldn't be Democrats if we weren't pessimistic, especially about elections.

[Cirsium]

30. The map

Here is something to think about whenever we look at those electoral college maps.

Illinois is solid blue. Percentage of the population that is AA about 14%.

Mississippi is solid red. Percentage of the population that is AA about 38%.

Racial disparities in voter turnout have grown since Supreme Court ruling, study says

The turnout gap between white and nonwhite voters in the U.S. is growing fastest in jurisdictions that were stripped of a federal civil rights-era voting protection a decade ago, according to a new study.

The protections in Section 5 of the 1965 Voting Rights Act required some states and localities with a history of voting discrimination to obtain federal approval before they could make any changes to their voting laws or procedures.

...

"What we found was that these jurisdictions fell back into their pattern of adopting laws and policies that made voting difficult for people of color," says Kareem Crayton, the center's senior director for voting rights and representation.

https://www.npr.org/2024/03/05/1235521824/voter-turnout-race-disparities-supreme-court

[oasis]

35. 100% correct!!!

[WarGamer]

41. 8 days... we'll see