Harris Regains 4 Point Lead in ABC News Poll

[Pototan]

Turnout is key. Just 2 percentage points divide Harris and Donald Trump among all registered voters, 49-47%. This goes to a slight Harris advantage among likely voters, 51-47%, with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote.

Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men and runs competitively among younger men.

Eight percent of adults (and 10% of registered voters) say they've already voted (as of early last week); a disproportionately Democratic group, they went 62-33% for Harris.

This poll finds a notable shift in vote preferences among Hispanic people, 12% of likely voters and a potentially important group given the close contest, especially in the battleground states of Arizona and Nevada. Biden won Hispanic people by 33 points in 2020, per the ABC News exit poll, and Harris leads in this group by a similar 30 points now, 64-34% -- compared with 55-43% in early October.

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/story?id=115083875

[True Blue American]

1. I just read the 7 latest pollls are

All Right leaning. I do not believe a one.

[FBaggins]

8. That isn't true - but this is the best polling news we've seen in weeks

Siena, Emerson, CNN, and Change Research are not right-leaning (the last one was actually paid for by the party)

[Pototan]

11. They are polling early voters

who make up 10% of all voters and Harris leads this group by 30 points.

I am always skeptical of every poll, favorable or not. But when you poll a segment of people as exit polls, it has to be more accurate.

[FBaggins]

13. Sorry - that isn't true either

Exit polls used to be far more accurate since there was far less work to model the electorate ("likely voter" etc.)... but that was when almost the entire electorate voted on election day. But every early vote in person is someone who will not be voting next Tuessday - and there is no reason to believe that republicans and democrats are equally as likely to vote early. In fact - four years ago showed a dramatic variance.

[Pototan]

24. It's only accurate for that 10% of those who already voted

it is not predictive of the final results.

but a 30-point lead among voters who have already voted is great news.

[TwilightZone]

14. Some DUers insist that every poll is paid for by the GOP.

Seems nothing is going to change that, as silly and tiresome as the assertion has become.

[FBaggins]

22. Nah... just the ones we don't like

Same polling firm a week later shows better numbers and it will be "even they can't hide the momentum"

[senseandsensibility]

27. I must have missed the DUers who said that every poll

is paid for by the GOP. Maybe you should provide a link.

[arlyellowdog]

2. How much mileage did the NEWS get out of the loss of the Hispanic vote baloney?

[OrlandoDem2]

3. Frickin Steve Kornacki just breathlessly reported other polls not favor to her.

[Ghost of Tom Joad]

15. I just want to hurl

While channel surfing this morning, I came across hand waving Korn-tacki on Meet the Press saying everything is moving in TFGs direction. Apparently game, set and match. What I don't get is that every pundit is assuming that all republican voters are voting for him, many may split the ticket, Halley supporters and Cheney admirers. We really don't know.

[Rebl2]

16. Kornacki

is a joke🙄

[Jersey Devil]

4. Maybe Carville has some inside info

He said a day or two ago that he was very confident and that we would start seeing some "good polls" soon. Sorry, don't have a link.

[Shermann]

7. I saw him on CNN, he seems to be going off of gut feel and not hard polling data. nt

[Jersey Devil]

9. but he did mention "good polls" soon

Maybe I'm just being an optimist, but I don't think he'd stick his neck out like that if he didn't know something.

[Shermann]

12. His bold predictions are making headlines

I'm not saying they are wrong, but they are educated guesses by a pundit.

[writes3000]

17. I think he probably knew about this one at least. I agree with you.

[Pototan]

26. Agreed

[Midnight Writer]

5. To sum up the polling data...

TFG lost about 20% of Republican primary voters, and there is a never-Trump movement within the Party. Many of that 20% say they will not vote for Trump in the General Election.

Harris is leading big time among younger voters.

Harris has made inroads among senior voters.

Independent voters seem to be breaking for Harris.

Harris is ahead in the Black vote.

Harris is polling ahead in the Hispanic vote.

Harris is ahead in the LBGTQ+ vote.

Harris is winning the urban and suburban vote.

There is a surge of women voters turning out angry because of the Dobbs decision.

But...

The race is a statistical tie?

How does that add up?

[Pototan]

10. This poll

basically tells us that Harris is re-establishing the Biden coalition. There is probably an increase in the Female vote but a decline in young men that evens out.

As a result, Harris currently has a 4-point lead, which is comparable Biden's 2020 vote.

[edisdead]

18. I HIGHLY doubt the young male vote offsets the female vote

[Dem4life1234]

19. So many young males have a loser mindset

I have noticed the young women are getting things done.

[jcgoldie]

20. yeah doubt they vote in large numbers

.

[kevink077]

6. Polls pointless at this point

It is all a turnout game as many have mentioned. I think Harris and dems are crushing it.

[Wiz Imp]

23. This is a very good poll for Harris

I looked at the cross tabs and it is one of the very few polls this cycle which don't show anything overly questionable in the crosstabs. It shows Harris maybe doing a little better with some constituencies than expected and some a little worse, but nothing seems very far off of a reasonable number.

[hvn_nbr_2]

25. Likely vs. registered voters

I find it encouraging that the numbers are better for likely voters than for registered voters. But I suspect that the difference is greater than they're showing.

My reason: I don't think pollsters have an adequate appreciation of "broken glass and burning coals voters" since Dobbs. Pollsters' "likely voters" screens probably classify a lot of broken glass and burning coals voters as unlikely voters because they didn't vote sometimes in the past, but in fact Dobbs woke a sleeping giant; pollsters still live in the past when the giant was still sleeping.

[kerry-is-my-prez]

28. This poll is not out in 538, RCP, or 270 to win.Strange...

Oh - it’s a National poll. Does not matter as much as the battleground polls. Wish they would do polls in the battleground states.