44 Million Voters Have Already Cast a Ballot. Most Voted Early in 2020, Too.

[RandySF]

More than 44 million Americans have cast an early ballot so far this election cycle, a substantial total that cements how voting patterns have changed in the country since the 2020 election.

Most of them are repeat customers.

Roughly 77 percent of the early votes cast across the country as of Tuesday have come from voters who also voted early in 2020. Just 13 percent of the early vote total so far were from voters who cast an in-person ballot on Election Day in 2020.

The fixed nature of the early vote turnout so far has made election prognostication difficult, especially when trying to parse whether overall turnout will remain as high as it was in 2020 and 2022, or whether either party is truly building an edge.




https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/29/us/politics/early-voting-presidential-election.html

[BWdem4life]

1. Archive link

https://archive.ph/ZbU8G

[W_HAMILTON]

2. Given how skewed early voters were for Biden in 2020, this makes me even more optimistic.

It's looking more like more Republicans voting early this year is due to crossover votes and/or cannibalizing their Election Day vote rather than just some surge of new MAGA voters.

Not much of a hot take that the MAGA vote has a cement ceiling at this point, but with the newfound voter enthusiasm for Kamala, he would need to expand his base to beat her and it doesn't look like he is doing that from the best data we have right now (i.e., early voting).