Good news from Fox (of all places!)

[anamnua]

Link to tweet

[OAITW r.2.0]

1. How does Fox know this?

Sounds like BS. But I truly hope this is the case.


On edit, how do they know they have a representative sample to make this conclusion?

[getagrip_already]

20. Probably exit polling....

Statistics? Now that is funny!

They just keep asking people hoping for an answer. When press time nears, they tally it.

Now its news.

[Arthur_Frain]

2. Great news but I'm not sure I'm buying it.

Those would be legendary numbers. I don’t think our nation is there, but I’d gladly eat crow on November sixth.

[TwilightZone]

4. Yeah, those are turn out the lights, the party's over numbers.

And the after-party would start in earnest.

[Arthur_Frain]

7. As much as I want them

They’re pie in the sky numbers.

[TwilightZone]

11. Hard to disagree.

One possibility would be significant crossover vote from Rs, as many have been predicting, but I've never been fully sold on the idea.

I'd be more than happy to be proven too pessimistic.

But, yeah, I think these numbers are unlikely. Hope they're not.

[WarGamer]

16. Look at the poll... tweet doesn't reflect poll results.

[TwilightZone]

17. Yeah, I was just digging around for that.

Here we go again.

[Tweedy]

15. Those are already voted numbers

that lack Election Day.

[lame54]

19. They're aiming for overconfidence

[OAITW r.2.0]

22. My thoughts as well. "No need for further voting Democrats, you've already won!"

[getagrip_already]

21. Depends where they did the exit polling....

If they did it in a hispanic philly neighborhood, i can believe it.

[TwilightZone]

3. Fox News doesn't run their own polls.

Which is why they seem relatively reasonable.

They use Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research, and they're #16 on 538's list of 300+ pollsters.

[Tribetime]

5. Twitter shit storm coming in ALL CAPS tonight

[Pinback]

6. "Oh, since it's already in the bag, I don't need to bother with voting."

Not that Fox would ever encourage such thinking among Dems, of course!

[anamnua]

8. Or the Dems have this sown up already

What's the point, now, in my voting for Trump?

[Meadowoak]

9. Makes me want to vote even more, let's break

Any and all records.

[PCIntern]

10. People are voting and not being dissuaded.

[kwolf68]

12. Here in PA

We are getting slammed by trump commercials. I've never seen anything like it. During this pregame, 5 of 6 commercials (in a row) were political in nature bashing Democrats. I have not even seen 1 pro Harris commercial in the last 45 minutes and like 10 or so "Casey is too Liberal", "men in womens sports", "sex changes", "border czar" shit.

I have no data, but they are spending way more money than us in PA on commercials.

[ananda]

13. Are they trying to get Dems to not vote since..

she's supposedly so far ahead?

Sheesh

[WarGamer]

14. Misleading tweet... top line of Fox Poll is PA, Trump +1 in a head to head race, tied with expanded ballot.

Tweet is feeding good news snippet ignoring the top line.

[Grown2Hate]

18. It's not AS good as it looks (and I'm not known to be the Debbie Downer; this is just math):

Let's pretend there are a total of 1,000,000 votes in MI (just picking a number; doesn't matter because the percentages work out the same no matter):

Early Vote: It says that 36% of the electorate voted already: 360,000 using our numbers above
Among them Harris leads 69% (248,400 votes) to Trump's 31% (111,600 votes).

11/05: That leaves Election day vote (or at least yet to vote) 54% of the electorate: 540,000
Among them Trump leads 59% (318,600 votes) to Harris' 41% (221,400 votes).

That totals Harris 469,800 to Trump 430,200 (approximately a 47% to 43% win for Harris).

While that's GREAT, it's not as big as it sounded without breaking it down (that and I don't know why it only adds up to 90% of the electorate, unless the other 10% is "other", which sounds unlikely).

PA is even harder to guess doing the same math (because, again, we're missing percentages; "one quarter" of the electorate that already voted versus "6 in 10" that haven't voted yet only adds up to 85%).

But, if we want to use those same numbers (and the same 1,000,000 voters total for PA), here we go:

Early Vote: It says that 25% of the electorate voted already: 250,000 using our numbers above
Among them Harris leads 67.5% (168,750 votes) to Trump's 32.5% (81,250 votes).

11/05: That leaves Election day vote (or at least yet to vote) 60% of the electorate: 600,000
Among them Trump leads 56% (336,000 votes) to Harris' 44% (264,000 votes).

That totals to Harris 432,750 to Trump 417,250 (approximately a 51% to 49% win for Harris).

AGAIN, I have no idea why the electorate doesn't add up to 100% in either case, but still appears to be good news for Harris, just not SPECTACULAR news. Note that this is all napkin math; don't hold me to it, but it's close.