Is my math correct?

[Pototan]

If women are outvoting men in Pennsylvania by 13% (56% to 43%), as indicated in the early voting data. And if the net gender gap is close to even in the final analysis of all voters in Penn (Harris plus 8 or 9 points among women, Trump plus 8 or 9 points among men), and if, as the early voting data suggests, woman outvote men by at least 6 or 7 points of all voters (i.e. 53% to 46%), doesn't that mean Pennsylvania will be safely in the Harris column?

And if we win Pennsylvania, doesn't that increase our chances to about 90% of winning the election?

Is my math correct?

[elleng]

1. Hope SO!

You're way too alert, @ 3:55 a.m!!!

AHA, you're far AWAY from eastern U.S.

[Pototan]

2. In the Central Philippines

It's 4:00 in the afternoon here.

I just left the pool to arrive at my keyboard.

[elleng]

3. NICE!

My 'pool's' a river, and a bit chilly to be IN it, now, @ 65 °F!

[sky_masterson]

4. I just hope a lot of those arent the "Karen" vote

White women voting for trump.

[Pototan]

5. The polls have women voting Harris by at least plus 10%

That would be like 55%-57% to 43%-45%.

The Karens are in that 43%. Let's not over count them.

[Doodley]

6. I am convinced the early voting gender gap data indicates women will carry us to victory.

[Pototan]

8. Ya, that's my point in the OP

[W_HAMILTON]

7. I'm not sure women will outvote men by six or seven points...

...but I believe PA (and enough battleground states to win the presidency) will be won by Kamala by margins greater than 2020.

[Pototan]

9. I think 53-47 is quite doable.

[lees1975]

11. 53-44 is CNN's polling number of Arizona early voters even though Republicans outnumber Democrats

in the early vote totals 42-37. Could be close to that in other places.

[modrepub]

10. Reading Tea Leaves

Who knows, really. A day at the pool is probably more productive than trying to figure out the PA electorate TBH.

PA is a weird state. The heavily Republican areas outside Philly that used to cancel out the city vote have reversed and become Democratic strongholds (Chester, Delaware, Montgomery). Never in my lifetime did I expect that. BUT, this Democratic surge in the Philly suburbs has been offset by the disappearance of Democratic votes in a lot of the more rural areas and increased population in several south central counties that are Republican strongholds (Cumberland, Lancaster, Lebanon, York) has also offset this change. In the west, Pittsburgh remains in Democratic hands but the surrounding counties have become much more Republican over the years and the population has shrunk.

The overall effect has been a decline in the Democratic advantage in the registered voter numbers. Between 2019 and 2023 Democratic registration has declined by 167k while Republican registration has increased by 200k. So the Democratic advantage in registered voters has dramatically changed since the last Presidential election. If trends continue, PA will probably be Red at some point in the future.

My guess is PA will not be called for a few days. That's what happened in 2020. No votes can be tallied before election day. So what will happen is the less populous Republican counties will finish counting Tuesday night. The more populous Democratic counties will probably not finish counting for a day or two or even three. Hopefully people will be patient. I could see some Republican shenanigans occurring in places where vote tallies are extended for a few days. Trump will probably hold a good lead until the more populous counties finish their vote counting. I wouldn't be surprised if there aren't Republican attempts to stop the vote tally after a day or so if they are ahead.

Try not to obsess too much on PA. It'll probably be close and the vote tallying will probably drag out until Wednesday, Thursday or even Friday.

[LymphocyteLover]

12. Seems fine, but honestly, I'm not even clear why trump has any chance at all in this election. He is so fucking terrible