Talk me off this ledge, because it's been nagging at me for days

[durablend]

Maybe it's still being jaded and shellshocked from 2016, but I'm still not confident at all about our chances and these points have been nagging for days that are what I'm anticipating hearing on Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. Somehow picturing Axelrod as the figurehead and his dour "It's really not a good night for the Democrats":

re: "women voting early in record numbers"

news figurehead: "Turns out those women voting in record numbers when asked cited the economy and transgender issues were reasons they voted for Trump, with abortion and democracy far behind. One woman said 'Who cares about democracy when you can't afford to put food on the table?'"

re: "Republicans crossing over to vote for Harris"

news figurehead: "Apparently the people that said they were Republicans voting for Harris or Haley supporters when they got to the voting booth ended up coming home and voting for Trump. Said one person 'As much as I hate Trump, voting for a Democrat is a bridge too far'"


Am I over hyperventilating about this?

[Walleye]

1. Try this, I am picturing a Harris victory party with Dark Brandon saying everything he wanted to say about Trump

[elleng]

2. Not hyperventilating,

but providing examples of the very real conflicts among our population(s.)

Sorry to say they are real. I'll try not to call anyone 'dumb' as I have done recently, human nature clearly is subject to 'difficult' influences. (I'm not betting.)

[underpants]

3. Republicans reversed course and started encouraging early voting

Since early voting has started to be available widespread Dems have dominated early numbers. Republicans now are voting early but they don’t vote twice so their advantage on votes on Election Day will be decreased.

Apparently more Dems are voting on Election Day or in the next few days. Virginia early voting ends Saturday for instance.

Remember- the privacy of the voting booth. The quotes you posted could easily be people not wanting people to find out they voted for Harris but that doesn’t mean that’s how they actually voted.

[Homoudont]

14. Republicans cannibalizing their own votes.

By voting early they are cannibalizing their own votes. If 100 republicans are voting it doesn't matter if they vote early or on election day, the only thing that matters is we get 101 democrats to vote.

[TwilightZone]

21. They're not cannibalizing anything.

The total number of votes is the same, at least, and almost certainly higher.

Relying solely on election day voting was always dumb. Lots of things can happen that keep someone from being able to vote that day. By voting early, those potential issues are avoided.

Assuming that all of the R early voters would have voted on election day and would have been able to, it's the same number of votes in total. For every voter who voted early who, for whatever reason, would have been unable to vote on election day, the total is one higher.

Your assertion that we just have to outvote them is correct, of course. But early voting is going to help them overall, just like it's helped as long as it's been around.

[lees1975]

34. Early voting doesn't change turnout one bit.

It may bank a few lower-propensity voters, but it changes nothing. However, it does give some hints as to the level of voter enthusiasm and in this case, it also is helping us get an idea of how many Republicans are actually crossing over to vote Democrat.

[Demsrule86]

38. Yes they are...we know this because Trump has not grown his base since 2020.

And he lost that one as he will lose on Tuesday. I know for a fact that Roe is excluded in many of the polls floating around. All I hear is 2016...this is nothing like 2016. Nothing. Turn the handwringing into something positive. Help the Harris campaign...now is the last chance any of us will have. Do your part and stay positive. It actually helps the effort.

[FakeNoose]

23. They can vote early ... so can we

When Repukes vote early, we can't allow ourselves to be cowed into thinking "Our votes don't count."

Our votes DO count, whether they are mailed ballots, early votes, or Election Day votes.
We must vote and see to it that others do also.



"Vote BLUE no matter WHEN"

[Ocelot II]

4. Anecdotes aren't data.

Somebody reported on a few women voting for Trump and saying they didn't care about abortion. That's news because it's contrary to what seems to be obvious - that women care very much about abortion. But those are selected anecdotes, not data, and they were reported by the media because they were interesting and anomalous, not because they indicated a pattern.

[EYESORE 9001]

6. 'Man Bites Dog' sells more newspapers than 'Dog Bites Man'

Same with ‘Blacks For Trump’, which fizzled so badly that it became too ludicrous for corporate media to even bother.

[Ocelot II]

9. Exactly.

At this point "Woman Votes For Trump" is in almost the same category as "Man Bites Dog." Of course there will be some brainwashed women who vote for Trump, but the fact that some of them are likely to be early voters does not lead to a conclusion that because more women are voting early those women are Trump voters.

[bdamomma]

43. and after

smearing Puerto Ricans they will change their votes for Harris/Walz. Hopefully.

[TwilightZone]

22. "that women care very much about abortion"

Blanket statements are almost always false. Abortion is barely even in the top 20 of important issues for Republicans (25%), and that obviously includes a significant number of women, or it would be higher. If all GOP women considered it important, the figure would be near 50%. 78% of Republicans say that Trump would better handle the issue.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/651719/economy-important-issue-2024-presidential-vote.aspx

The only issues they rated lower were, predictably, climate change, race relations, and transgender rights.

The latter explains why they've spent tens of millions on anti-trans ads, a clear dog whistle to their base.

[lees1975]

35. The data and the exit polling being done indicates a higher percentage of women voting Harris than voted Biden in 2020.

As well as voters crossing over from Republican to Democrat.

[Demsrule86]

39. Many polls exclude Roe from the questions...having made the decision that

women are 'over it'. They are wrong.

[bdamomma]

44. Nope

not over it. I'm with Michelle Obama on this, this is more than abortion, this is a Health Issue.

[-misanthroptimist]

5. My advice:

Stop going out on ledges, particularly when and where they don't exist. There is no evidence that your scenario is representative of the current election.

[Doodley]

7. What's more likely? Record gender gap because women don't want to be told what they can do with their own bodies by

fascist misogynists, or because they are angry about the economy and transgender folk (polls show men are less accepting of trandsgender people)?

[MrWowWow]

8. I Doubt the Truthfulness of Their Exit Polling Answers

These women sound like they won't publicly admit to voting for Harris/Walz. Not yet at least. They'll find their courage to tell the truth after election day...after a blue tsunami has swept over the country.

[lees1975]

10. Try this thread.

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219630036

[Native]

11. This map might give you hope. This guy was very accurate in 2020 & 2022

Link to tweet

?s=19

[Prairie Gates]

20. Telling people that Harris will win Florida is a choice, I guess

Florida gets called pretty early in the night.

[FakeNoose]

24. I hope he's wrong about Texas - I really think Allred will win

Cruz may be "ahead" by 2 points in the polling, but it's very soft. Cruz needs to be sent packing, and a lot of Texans are fed up with him. Not just the Dems either, it seems his support among R voters has softened since 2018. Allred is a very strong candidate.

I love how optimistic this guy is for Kamala and Tim!

Screenshot of Christopher Bouzy's prediction:

[TwilightZone]

25. Florida is highly unlikely.

Republicans are reportedly dominating early vote. Unless a massive number of them are voting for Harris, a condition for which there is not yet evidence, that's a pretty clear sign that Florida will stay R.

https://floridapolitics.com/archives/704650-florida-gop-stretches-early-vote-edge-over-dems-closer-to-700000/

[Native]

28. he said it was expected that republicans would go heavy this go round with early voting

and did you see that Hillary is expected to campaign in Tampa this Saturday? The media is saying that the Harris campaign doesn't expect to take the presidency here, but they see a real possibility of unseating Rick Scott. This was supposedly a last-minute thing.

[TwilightZone]

29. Democrats are expected to do the same.

And we're still getting out-voted in early FL voting by nearly 2:1.

The deficit in EV is nearly 900,000 votes as of this morning.

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

[Native]

33. and considering the influx of Republicans who moved here for "freedom" thanks to Desantis' campaign,

we now have a shit ton more registered republicans than dems. for that reason alone, I can't see going blue, but having the campaign send Hillary on Saturday because they think the down ballot has a good chance of coming through for us dems gives me a little bit of hope.

p.s. I personally spoke with several of these newly arrived Republicans, and I can certify that they are, as they say in the south, ate up. These people are freaking rabid. One guy who came here because of Desantis' promises even said he's leaving the state because it's not free enough.

[NoRethugFriends]

26. his map is delusional.

[Native]

27. perhaps

[Demsrule86]

40. You should put that in an OP...many folks are stressed. All my kids are on meds.

[Ferrets are Cool]

12. Hyperventilating wont change anything. Take a deep breath and know that our VP has this.

She has run the greatest campaign we've ever seen. She has had to be perfect and has far exceeded expectations.
Let me say my piece. Hillary had baggage. She was HATED...moreso than most want to admit.
Then there was the misguided belief that she had it in the bag...that donald could NEVER win the election, so way too many people just stayed home. That will not happen this time. People are unabashedly excited about voting for VP Harris.
When have you seen ANY repugs voting for a Democrat, much less the immense numbers we are seeing.
Finally, that that energy and turn it towards helping to get her elected.

[Kaleva]

13. Don't worry too much about things outside your control

[angrychair]

15. Sorry

I find these statements to be absurdly ridiculous:

One woman said 'Who cares about democracy when you can't afford to put food on the table?'"

There is no way this is real or representative of most people. It's just not.

[ScratchCat]

17. The quotes sound contrived as well

They may very well be real, and representative of a small subset, but they also sound like what a Trump fan wants other conservatives who don't like Trump to say/think. They've also invented this "meme" or sorts where they all say "who cares about 'x' when you can't put food on the table". Its like code words that you are part of the cult and that you agree Biden raised your grocery cost, not wealthy corporations.

I agree that the notion that reason women are voting early in mass is because of the economy and transgender people instead of abortion is patently absurd and fictionalized. Its bizarre that they would even try that nonsense.

[RJ_MacReady]

31. Yup

They are cherry picked after countless hours of sifting through interviews to show on air.

[TwilightZone]

32. "of most people"

I'd agree that it's not representative of most people, but it is certainly the attitude of a significant number. There's a massive amount of misinformation about the economy and the causes for higher prices out there, and many, many people buy into it. This is clear in the polls -- way too many people inexplicably think Trump would be better for the economy.

To someone fixated on something like grocery prices, it's difficult to get across what got us here. Biden and now Harris have been trying for years. The voters' self-rationalization is that stuff was cheaper when Trump was in office, so they were better off. Sure, it's myopic, but this perception is their reality.

[bigtree]

16. why should it matter what doomsday scenario you can conjure up

...anyone can be a pessimist, but it makes no sense doing that here with a week to make this thing happen.

[Brainfodder]

18. OK since you asked, I can't see any way for Cadet Creep to gain votes from last time but see lots of LOST votes?

How many times does he get to disparage large subsets of people and not offend enough to not vote for Cadet Creep who IS showing signs of SEVERE decline and besides his asshole ways and no substance interviews?

-B

[Prairie Gates]

19. There, there

There, there

[MorbidButterflyTat]

30. This is 2024, not 2016

Why do some people insist upon ignoring 2020? There's a Democrat in the White House.

Your "news figure head" sounds very Foxy.

[Tbone421]

36. This is what i have been trying to tell myself.....

These republicans that are supporting Harris.....They have families and close friends. They have most likely shared their thoughts on this situation with their close family and friends. So, it is possible that for each one of these republicans supporting trump, they have 5 or so people in their lives that are also R but supporting Harris based on the sharing between close friends and family.

Now, obviously, the same thing can happen for the other side.....but there just aren't many or any Democrats supporting the train wreck.

We are all being goosed into this state of worry by the media continuing to treat the train wreck like its sane. No one should be taking this crap serious at this point......but here we are.

The good news is that at least the voting will be over with soon.

[Demsrule86]

37. I am so tired of hearing about 2016. It was a different election with a brutal

primary and progressive voters who refused to vote for our candidate...fuck them. And we barely lost- a few thousand votes in swing states...now Trump is a known quantity, Democrats are united and it looks like a fair number of conservatives will vote with us. Trump has done nothing to increase his base since 2020 and he lost that election, Roe is king or maybe Queen is a better word. I hear confidence in the campaign when I talk to others working it. Help the campaign. Worrying does nothing. Working the campaign should make you feel better. Anyone can make phone calls or send texts.

[GreenWave]

41. You are believing in a felony!

To wit to woo:

when they got to the voting booth ended up coming home and voting for Trump This means they voted twice.

[obamanut2012]

42. These people were not Republicans for Harris anyway, but MAGATs

Could you please link to these quotes?