big BIG BREAKING NEWS... IOWA: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day 47-44

[WarGamer]

This is BIG... if accurate.

Losing Iowa would signal a BIG election night thumping for Trump.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Iowa Poll: Kamala Harris leapfrogs Donald Trump to take lead near Election Day. Here's how

Kamala Harris now leads Donald Trump in Iowa — a startling reversal for Democrats and Republicans who have all but written off the state’s presidential contest as a certain Trump victory.

A new Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll shows Vice President Harris leading former President Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters just days before a high-stakes election that appears deadlocked in key battleground states.

The results follow a September Iowa Poll that showed Trump with a 4-point lead over Harris and a June Iowa Poll showing him with an 18-point lead over Democratic President Joe Biden, who was the presumed Democratic nominee at the time.

Who said we're not going to have a winner Tuesday night?????

[RandySF]

1. That's the gold standard in Iowa.

[WarGamer]

3. indeed it is.

[Bernardo de La Paz]

49. Selzer's been an outlier before

🔵2012: D+5 (D+6)
🔴2016: R+7 (R+9)
🔴2020: R+7 (R+8)
🔵2024: D+3 (?)

Here's 2014 Senate race. At the end Selzer is the only outlier and the closest:

[senseandsensibility]

2. Great news!

Thanks for posting.

[Fiendish Thingy]

4. Now THAT would be something.

Normally I would scoff at such predictions, but the DMR poll is considered the gold standard (far above those “A+++rated!” Polls others rave about), so even with a 3 point margin that is probably within the MOE, we just might have a chance there.

If Trump suddenly books a rally in Iowa, then we’ll know we have a serious chance.

[newdeal2]

6. If he is trying to hold on to Iowa at this point

He is screwed and it will be a fun night here.

[Fiendish Thingy]

9. I better get some Martinelli's to chill for Tuesday...nt

[Tribetime]

10. Drumph just filled his diaper

[calguy]

44. With only two days left to campaign....

I'd say it's too late to schedule a rally in Iowa. It's all over at this point except for a couple last rallies.

[C_U_L8R]

5. A great start !!

I think we're gonna see a lot more pleasant surprises in the next few days !!!

[Tribetime]

7. Holy shit 400 EV is possible

[bluestarone]

8. WOW!! Hope this is true!!

Maybe i can spend money in Iowa again.

[a kennedy]

11. Loved this sentence.......

“Trump continues to lead with his core base of support: men, evangelicals, rural residents and those without a college degree.”

Nuff said......ugh....

[50 Shades Of Blue]

12. Obama did it in 2008!

[onetexan]

13. WOW!! This is J. Ann Selzer's poll, arguably the best pollster.

[Cha]

59. Good to Know, onetexan..

Geeze Louise. .. It feels Surreal right now!

💙🌊🌊🌊🇺🇸🕯️🕊️🌈

[onetexan]

67. Doesn't it? I believe Kamala will win all 7 swing states, and then some!

[Cha]

78. I Surely Hope So!. with All my Heart and Soul! 🕊️🕯️💙🌊🌊🌊💙🇺🇸🌈

[Ms. Toad]

14. Remember - Iowa was the 4th state to recognize same gender marriages.

It is conservative, but in a more Minnesota way of being conservative, than the Texas or Florida are conservative. Trump's recent antics would not go over well there.

[Quiet Em]

15. I just heard about this.

LFG. Woohoo

[clutterbox1830]

16. I always knew Iowa was winnable.

At least more then other swing states. It is not as conservative than people think. Obama won the state easily compared to FL or OH

[Tribetime]

18. Ohio is possible now too.... and Florida and Texas

[clutterbox1830]

23. I agree although

I'm not sure about TX this election. Voting suppression is higher there. Also, Houston is expected heavy t-storms in the morning and afternoon.

[LisaL]

37. Lets hope those thunderstorms end early.

NT

[Sky Jewels]

17. There was a recent poll showing her doing well in Kansas

and another showing her having a massive lead in NH. Another poll showed Trump up only 3 in Ohio. As many have suspected, we’ve likely been sold a bullshit narrative about the state of this race being “extremely close.”

[Music Man]

19. Please, oh please, be true.

There was an Emerson College poll released today that showed Trump up 10 in Iowa: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/ Both polls can't be accurate, so we'll see on Tuesday. I hope we can put in the work in Iowa these next few days and make it the surprise of the season.

[demmiblue]

20. This tweet from the chair of the Iowa GOP aged horribly in under two hours:

Link to tweet

[WarGamer]

21. damn...

[Nevilledog]

22. ...

Link to tweet

emptywheel (blue algae)
@emptywheel
·
Follow
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Male pollster: Tie game, we've adjusted for Trump
Ann Selzer: Have you boys heard of Dobbs?
4:18 PM · Nov 2, 2024

Link to tweet

Matthew Klein
@MattKleinOnline
·
Follow
Final Selzer poll findings (and the actual result)

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

About as good as any pollster gets.

[AKwannabe]

42. FUCKING LOVE THIS

Nevilledog

Woot

[Quixote1818]

24. Emerson has Trump by 10 in Iowa today. Their methodology must be completely different?

Someone is going to be way off.


https://emersoncollegepolling.com/november-2024-iowa-poll-trump-53-harris-43/

[WarGamer]

27. they say the person behind the DMR poll, Ann Selzer... is basically never wrong.

hey had Trump +18 over Biden... and Trump +4 over Harris in Sept.

H+3 today.

I think it's real.

[Quixote1818]

28. Yeah, it's A+ rated and their track record is pretty flawless from what I am seeing. nt

[Tetrachloride]

31. flawless is over the top iin my opinion

[BootinUp]

52. Mr. Spock agrees. nt

[MadameButterfly]

66. This is why I might be able to sleep

before the election. The first indication that the flawless Kamala campaign and despicable Trump campaign are getting through to voters.
In past times we could count on it, Trump does 10 things a day that would end any other career. But I'd lost hope that anything he could do would have an impact. But maybe Trump has finally reached lows sufficient to lose

Kamala has been brilliant beyond my expectations and we couldn't hope for more. It's encouraging to think it might have hit it's mark.

If we get Iowa, the election is won. Even if we don't get Iowa, if things are trending this way, the election is won.

[Deminpenn]

53. Emerson has been bullish on Trump this entire

cycle. I think there is something funky with their LV model.

[Qutzupalotl]

72. Emerson is one of the polls Simon Rosenberg warned us about

when he said the right was flooding the zone with favorable (and mostly RW-sponsored) polls this cycle to game the averages. They have had a good track record in the past, but … things change.

[Deminpenn]

74. Emerson isn't a partisan pollster, but

I suspect they are modeling on 2016 and 2020 meaning trying to capture "hidden" Trump voters. In 2016, Trump was shiny and new and had a lot of people believing the made up TV world of "The Apprentice". In 2020, although Trump did get more voters, his crazy and chaotic administration was fresh in voter's minds and voters rejected him. Now Trump is pretty much yesterday's news and Harris is the new, fresh face despite being VP for the last 4 years. Jmo, but pollsters aren't recognizing that in their LV models.

[mchill]

60. Selzer, the Des Moines Register pollster on MSNBC

The 6 week abortion ban went into effect this last summer and Iowans are starting to see the consequences. Also, Trump lost no actual ground since Sept—same number of voters, but the size of the actual voter pool increased and most of those respondents went to Kamala Harris.

She also notes neither candidate gets to 50% so still some swing left for voting day. Most importantly, she said that polls deciding that they know what the future electorate looks like maybe basing it Donald Trump on past electorate (explaining the Emerson poll you mention) which would overly favor the previous winner.

[NNadir]

25. That's a big one. I'm hoping for my country that we see lots of similar surprises on Tuesday. That, and not...

...the asshole, will demonstrate America's greatness.

[spanone]

26. K&R

[Tweedy]

29. Wow

If this is what you say

I love it !

[Tribetime]

30. This would suggest we take House and expand Senate

12 point shift from 2020

[wordstroken]

32. Oh, please make it come true! 🤞🤞🤞🤞🤞

[usonian]

33. Landslide, anyone? Even a small landslide?

What's a small landslide?, you ask.

[FakeNoose]

38. I'm very optimistic, but I don't want to use the "L" word yet

Kamala and Tim will have a definitive win. Chump and Vance will be shown the door.

[usonian]

43. Yes, the big W.

THEN the manure.

[FakeNoose]

45. It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, Mad World!

[Sogo]

34. OMG!!!

My fondest dream coming true!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Strelnikov_]

35. Down ballot races

Last poll I saw had 2 of the 4 Congress seats competitive, with the R leading in these two similar to the Orange One (4%). With the 7% swing to Harris in the current poll for POTUS . . .

[LexVegas]

36. Lets go!!! nt

[liberalmuse]

39. This poll could be off by 10 points

And it would still be great for Harris. I never in my wildest dreams thought Harris would be at +3. My hope was it would be only Trump +6. Any lower seemed like a pipe dream. Biden won the EC at Trump +8 in this poll. Does this mean she will win Iowa? Maybe, maybe not, but it’s a great indicator of how the Midwest will likely vote. This pollster is probably THE best pollster for her neck of the woods.

[jcgoldie]

47. right! It could be off 8 and...

...it means she will steamroll in wi, mi, and pa

[ibegurpard]

56. Tim Miller on The Bulwark

Was ecstatic when he misread it as Trump +3. They were gobsmacked just now and couldn't stop smiling.

[ThePartyThatListens]

40. Yah, was just watching Kyle Kulinkski's commentary on it...

WoW!!!

[Vogon_Glory]

41. If this poll is accurate and if Iowa voters' behavior follows the polls

the Good Guys might not have to sweat losing Nevada to Donald John.

I don’t know enough about Iowa to account for the swing. I’d like to think I have a reason, though. My impression is that Iowans are rather square (Which is why right-wingers have been able to use gays and abortion as hot-button issues to bash Democrats). Maybe, just maybe, enough Iowans have decided that they’re so disgusted with Donald John’s potty mouth and behavior that they’d sooner vote for Kamala than feel like they’ve waded through liquid sleaze by voting for what’s-his-name. And the latest leak about Donald John’s visit to Jeffrey Epstein’s island isn’t going to impress Iowa’s non-Incels.

[Music Man]

46. Or maybe Walz as VP giving the ticket a Midwestern sensibility.

[Lemon Lyman]

48. :-)

Good for Ralph Newbanks from Solon!

Ralph Newbanks, a 63-year-old poll respondent from Solon, said he is a lifelong Republican who plans to vote for Harris this year.

“It's not what I like about her, it's what I dislike about Trump,” he said. “Since 2020 and the Capitol riots, I couldn't vote for Trump if he paid me, not for love nor money.”

He thought about casting a ballot for a third-party candidate, but he didn’t want to lodge a protest vote. He wants to make sure Trump doesn’t return to the White House.

“To me, the biggest part of democracy is the ability to compromise,” he said. “And with Donald Trump and the MAGA movement, there is no compromise, even within their own party.”

[0rganism]

50. Fantastic if true, it also could be an outlier

Either way, we'll have actual results to compare in a few days

[ibegurpard]

51. Could 2024 Iowa be 2008's Indiana?

That would be something. I still don't think she's winning Iowa but it shows movement and confirms the gender gap we're hearing about.
Please let it be so.

[AntiFascist]

54. According to Ann Selzer, women (white) are responsible for this, especially those over 65 who vote in greater numbers...

and this thinking might be extended to other battleground states.

[Florida Dem]

55. An Idea

I wonder if Waltz or Harris shouldn't squeeze in a quick rally in Des Moines before election day just to f@ with the orange turd's head and make him double diaper.

[Cha]

57. HOPEFULLY It's Absolutely 💯

On Target 🎯 TY!

🕯️🕊️🇺🇸💙🌊🌊🇺🇸🌈🌊💙🌊

[Deminpenn]

58. Tim Miller interviewed Ann Seltzer

on his podcast when her poll showing Harris within 6 came out. He thought then that those results were .a big deal .

[Lemon Lyman]

61. ;-)

It’s anecdotal, but here’s something I’ve noticed.

There’s a big-time R supporter who lives just South of Dubuque. It’s a married couple who have a beautiful home. They have $$. They’re big time enough to get R presidential candidates to come to their house for fundraisers. Back in 2010’ish they had one for Santorum. This year they had one for Burgham. They always have all the R candidate signs on their property. In the past 2 presidential election cycles they had a Tangeranus sign. This year they don’t.

There are WAY fewer Tangeranus signs everywhere in Eastern IA this cycle than there were in past elections. Maybe these people are still voting for him, just embarrassed to admit it. Maybe they’re not voting for him this time (they’ve had enough). Hopefully it’s the latter.

[Strelnikov_]

70. Match's my observations as well

Other than the ‘shrines’, not nearly as many Orange One signs as past elections.

Did see a farmstead, Bremer or Chickasaw, up there somewhere, that had a three sign sequence, probably 4’ x 8’ signs (sub shrine class, no flags).

Orange one > Pat Grassley > and a homemade “Stop Dangerous Carbon Pipelines”

Bit of a head scratcher, that last one.

[Deminpenn]

75. There are Trumpers around me who had signs in 2016,

then nothing in 2020, presumably out of embarrassment, right up until relatively recently when the Trump signs and flags came out. So I think whatever shame these Trumpers felt in 2020 no longer exists. They must figure enough time has passed since 2016.

[dalton99a]

62. The only pollster to correctly predict Obama's victory

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ann_Selzer

[NBachers]

63. Well this is a Holy Shit moment!

[Zambero]

64. Just like old times?

I recall when a majority of Iowa voters went for Dukakis back in '88 when Bush won 54-46 in the national popular vote. A return to sanity in those parts would be most welcome!

[peggysue2]

65. Are you feeling it yet??

Blue Wave rising. Gonna wash across the shoreline with a mighty roar!

[Emile]

68. I wonder how many red states are going blue.

MAGATS are in for a sad day on Wednesday.

[hawkeye21]

71. Iowa voted Obama twice . . . and then Trump twice. And you think there isn't something satanic going on?

As an Iowan, it has been beyond embarrassing to see the state go from a socially progressive, politically moderate state to a gung-ho MAGA haven. For the last decade, I haven't been able to stand being around anyone I don't know because I assume they are MAGA. For a state like Iowa to be sucked into this cult, there has to be some extraordinary power at work. Iowa has had great governors of both parties: Democrat and one-time truck diver Harold Hughes to name one, and long-time Republican Gov. Robert D. Ray for another. Both were decent, honorable people who were widely respected across the political spectrum. But now Iowa has a horrible MAGA governor and a miserable MAGA legislature that's defunding its once outstanding public schools and supporting private, "religious" schools instead, and banning books and abortion, among other MAGA mischief.

So if Iowa actually does regain its senses and goes for Kamala, it will make this election even more gratifying for me personally. Make it so, then we can live long and prosper.

[Thrill]

73. Someone posted that Iowa has been hit hard by the Abortion bans

Apparently they don’t have enough OBGYNs. And can’t recruit any to the state. Women there are concerned about starting families there

[getagrip_already]

76. Lack of obgyn's hits women of all ages... seniors included

The plumbing doesnt go into hibernation once menopause hits. Blockages, cists, pap smears and other routine tests, become difficult to even diagnose let alone routinely screen for.

Its a concern for women at every age.

Im a guy, and even i know that.

[Bayard]

77. Mr. Bayard is from Iowa, and has relatives there

He is amazed.