If Kamala is really winning in Iowa, does that mean she's probably winning in Ohio?

[Renew Deal]

There are some swingier states than Iowa. Namely Ohio and Florida.

[Klarkashton]

1. Probably means she is the next POTUS. No matter

What.

[elleng]

2. Dunno, I don't trust Ohio, haven't for years.

[ok_cpu]

3. I don't think Ohio is ready to leave trump

but he's going to underperform previous elections.

[FlyingPiggy]

34. THAT I can totally see. In fact, I'd wager he will underperform from previous years

[bamagal62]

27. I would imagine

The only city possibly liberal in Ohio is Columbus. And, I know a bunch of Ohio State fans that are very Trumpy. But, I also have a couple of family members that are Professors at Ohio State that are very liberal.

[elleng]

31. I attended Miami U,

took Jr. Yr overseas to avoid 4 straight in Oxford (tho made some good, long-term friends, and liked some profs a lot.) Was first student to take time abroad, so kind of 'invented' such, and doing such has become a 'thing' there.

AND, unrelated, married an Ohio-an, born ? in Columbus (maybe,) and adopted and grew up in Dayton; died a few years ago, so I have family there (whom I haven't seen in years, tho daughter has.) Haven't talked politics with them.

[dsc]

37. Cleveland is also very liberal

But overall ohio is not likely to bring harris a win but brown might win

[BlueWaveNeverEnd]

4. no, Ohio is soooo red now.

[Jack Valentino]

23. Well, that's what we've been thinking about Iowa, until the latest

Des Moines Register poll....

As to any evidence I suspect you are right---
but this is a year unlike any other year...

The Democratic party should work as hard as it can, EVERYWHERE---
and God Bless all the women who will vote for their own rights!!


The last week leads me to believe that "surprises" are possible anywhere,
even in Ohio!

[onetexan]

35. I believe it's also Kamala's campaign country

Over party strategy. In GA for example, republican early voting numbers are higher than Dems (in the 40s), but % of women early votes were 51%. This means registered republicans & independents are voting for Kamala.
That said, i hope they vote blue down ballot as well to benefit our side 🌊🇺🇸

[stopdiggin]

5. pretty big IF (I'm still fairly skeptical) about Iowa

and I'd have to give Ohio a hard NO

(now go ahead and make me the wrongest person in the lower 48 ... Please! "Make my day." )

[Diamond_Dog]

6. It will be closer in Ohio than anyone thought.

[kwolf68]

7. Can anyone explain why...

Ohio is like this? Shouldn't they more aligned with PA? Ohio has a couple large urban areas like PA. Is their "middle" more populated than our middle her in PA? It's just odd to me, seems like Ohio and PA should agree on a lot of things, well other than Steelers versus Browns.

[Zambero]

15. The difference is Philly

If Philadelphia and Columbus could be swapped by their states, the Ohio vote would look more like PA.

[kwolf68]

18. So its just the raw numbers?

Got it. Philly is massive I know. I do want to get some states back in play. It's awful awesome to see my birth state of North Carolina, the state i lived in most my life (Virginia) start to trend blue/purple.

[Jack Valentino]

24. but Ohio has more large cities than Pennsylvania.....

on the other hand, they birthed more Presidents than PA, if you go all the way back....

[Ms. Toad]

21. Let me see . . .

Akron is the unofficial capital of West Virginia. And Cincinnati is pretty much part of Kentucky.

[enid602]

28. Cincinnati

I know a woman who jokes that she’s from the West Virginia suburbs of Cincinnati.

[elleng]

32. HAHAHAHA!

[bamagal62]

26. I know people from Ohio.

Trump all the way.

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

8. Everyone is ignoring the women's vote and the abortion factor. Women do NOT like to be told "whether women like

it or not”. Also, women are dying because of these stupid abortion bans. I’m sure every woman out there is fed up with this issue and are ready to put their thumb on the scale for women’s rights!

[TwilightZone]

9. No.

Every state is different. While some indirect connections could be made (huge wins in, say, MI, PA, and WI could translate to other states), just being up in Iowa doesn't mean she's up in Ohio.

All politics is local, as they say.

[Renew Deal]

11. What has she offered Iowa that is unique to them?

Walz?

[madaboutharry]

13. It is not what she has or hasn't offered.

I think it is the SIX WEEK ABORTION BAN that is now law in Iowa. Woman are angry. Iowans apparently also like democracy.

Trump could still win Iowa, but if he does he will squeak by.

[Meadowoak]

38. Same here in KY. Don't be too surprised if KY goes

For Kamala. The women here are pissed, and they vote. Also seeing almost zero support for Trump.

[TwilightZone]

14. It might have more to do with Trump than Harris/Walz.

When Biden was still in the race, this same poll had Trump +18. A poll from September had him +4 on Harris. If the current one is accurate, it would be a huge swing this late in the campaign. It could be that they're learning more about Harris (and liking what they see), but Trump's antics might be playing a significant role, as well.

I wouldn't think it would be all Trump because he's usually pretty resilient, but there's usually something significant behind this large a shift.

Again, this is all assuming the poll is accurate.

[ibegurpard]

10. Doubt it but

Bet the margin smaller than it's been in a decade

[Fiendish Thingy]

12. Not for certain, but it probably means the Blue Wall states are safe. Nt

[Littlered]

16. Nope, no way.

Ohio is devolving into red state maga hell. It’s mind boggling.

[Tribetime]

17. I'll say yes women will be way underestimated they are pissed

I think it will be within 2%

[clutterbox1830]

19. Maybe however

note that Iowa does not have really have a state wide election this year except for president unlike Ohio where the is a completive senate race going on. I've been saying for awhile that IA is wide open since the first poll that had Harris only down by 4% and more importantly had 10% undecided at the time. There were not as many undecided in OH.
Also, IA is not as conservative as people think. Obama was able to win it twice and pretty easily. It also helped that no one on Trump ignore this state completely. It could be Harris version of Wisconsin in 2016.

[pstokely]

20. how often have the states considered out of play been polled?

Last edited Sun Nov 3, 2024, 02:00 AM - Edit history (1)

Even those with statewide downballot races, MO out of of play, but it still has statewide down ballot races and ballot indicatives and still hasn't been polled much. I hear the Repubs being ahead in the polls but the don't say polling has been limited.

[clutterbox1830]

25. True.

Although IA was prematurely considered out of play especially since the few polls taken showed the rest competitive.
I'm glad it did since Trump did little to defend it. I'm pretty sure this poll came as a surprised to the Harris camp too. They have been running some ads there, but I'm sure they will purchase more ads during the last few days.

[pstokely]

29. no one expected it be in play based on IA's demographics that tRump does best with

older, whiter, rural, uneducated

[TuskMoar]

22. Maybe KS

Some other post on here suggested that Kansas was also very close

[Wiz Imp]

30. The latest Ohio poll (From Miami U of Ohio) has Trump up just 3

https://miamioh.edu/news/2024/11/miami-university-students-conduct-survey-of-ohio-voters.html

[elleng]

33. WOWOWOW!

Miami did a poll! I attended MU!!!

[FlyingPiggy]

36. Did that Julia Roberts commercial air in Iowa? That commercial is POWERFUL

That anonymity will be their death knell. No wonder Charlie Kirk is losing his mind over it. Women are reading the signs of control and abuse and they won’t forget. This cuts DEEP into women’s psyche & they will vote to protect their daughters, sisters, mothers, etc.

[kansasobama]

39. No she wont win Ohio but

It just means there is potential for a big surprise. I would say this means a bigger EC win.

By the way, thanks DU for being back on . But for you, I cannot track results on Nov 6th. I am returning tp US and it is easier to check DU headlines than media.