The "Trump magic" in Iowa is past its "sell by" date.... thanks to WOMEN!

[Jack Valentino]

(The Des Moines Register just published their final poll of Iowa, which gave Kamala Harris a lead of 3 percentage points over Trump in their state!)
https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/


I have never quite understood the apparent shift of Iowa to a strongly Republican state, but I guess it was just a 'Trump thing' . Iowa is very rural, and Trump has always performed best with that demographic.

However, for many elections post-Reagan, Iowa voted for the Democratic candidate---
the start of that streak was 1988, for pete's sake, when DUKAKIS won Iowa even in the midst of his landslide loss to Bush Sr.:
https://www.270towin.com/1988_Election/

The Democratic presidential nominee also won Iowa twice with Clinton, once with Gore, and twice with Obama.
Between 1988 and 2012, the Democrats only lost Iowa once, in 2004.... then Trump won it twice in 2016 and 2020.


But it seems that 2024 is a different year again, and all the metrics are with the Democrats.
Seems that Iowa women don't like their rights being taken away....

I think Harris-Walz should send someone to Iowa before it's over---
probably not Harris or Walz, but at least a top surrogate for at least ONE rally!
(although Governor Walz would seem like a 'natural' for this particular state, his neighbor!)


The article I read says neither campaign even has an office there, although I suppose both state parties do---
our side should make an appearance! An Obama or Clinton or the Vice President's husband--- just somebody!!!!

An extra 6 electoral votes could come in handy, and help create multiple paths to victory in this election!


The Des Moines Register poll has always been respectably credible.

[madaboutharry]

1. I don't think they have time to organize something.

I mean we are basically talking about 48 hours.

I thought after the September poll in which Kamala was down by 4 could have earned a visit, but I get spending money where you see the biggest return.

This poll is bad news for Trump. If he does wins Iowa, it will be a squeaker. He will be way off the margins he won Iowa by in 2016 and 2020. This poll could be an indicator of where the rest of the country may actually be. The Selzer poll has picked up voters often missed by other polls.

I’m taking a deep breath. I expected Harris to lose Iowa. Now if she loses Iowa, I will be bitterly disappointed.

[Jack Valentino]

2. There is enough time, but only just.

They just need a venue--- and with social media, there would be no problem getting a big crowd there---
Even just an "airport appearance".

It would certainly be easier to do, if the particular surrogate was someone who did not require a significant Secret Service presence, I'll give you that....

Maybe they could ask "Big Gretch" to do it! (MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer)

[moondust]

3. More big TFG tariffs

may not be too popular. Previously he did hand the farmers some big bailouts but maybe they'd rather not go through all that chaos and uncertainty again.