Final prediction for the Presidential Election

[-misanthroptimist]

My prediction for the Popular Vote: Harris 53% - Trump 45%

For the Electoral College: Harris 319 - Trump 219

[lame54]

1. No Iowa?

[-misanthroptimist]

6. Ba-leeted! Responded to wrong post. Sorry.

[WarGamer]

2. that's my "best case scenario"

[-misanthroptimist]

9. My best case would include IA, FL, KS, and TX

Not likely, but not completely impossible either. That would make it 401 - 137 in the EC. That might even shut up Traitortot.

[Jeebo]

18. If Iowa, Florida, Kansas and Texas are that close, don't you think Ohio is too?

Ohio is in the upper Midwest, so I would think it would be one of the "Blue Wall" states too.

-- Ron

[Metaphorical]

42. If Iowa and North Carolina then Ohio

The three usually tend to vote the same way.

Three things make me suspect a blowout (Trump

[Figarosmom]

20. TX

Not allowing Justice department monitors in makes me believe they are up to no good at the polls.

[JT45242]

23. Paxton and Abbott will cheat....

Hopefully Cancun Cruz loses though.

[ananda]

27. And putting Harris County under the control of the Secretary of State!

So, no, Texas Republicans are up to no good!

Allred is close, though.

It's not out of the realm of impossibility that
he takes this.

[Figarosmom]

36. Thats why they are going out

Of their way to do what they can to alter the outcome.t
THEY ARE SCARED OF LOSING CONTROL.

[wryter2000]

3. Looks reasonable

N/t

[Wednesdays]

4. It's realistic.

On Election Night, watch Florida (as well as PA, NC, and GA of course.

If we add Florida to the others, it will be a very fun night for us!

[Deuxcents]

10. I'm so hoping Florida will vote Blue 💙

[bamagal62]

5. It's still worrisome

That 45% would vote for that idiot.

[brettdale]

7. Harris will win

278 to 260.

[Miami Blue]

8. I love it!

That would be great and is also pretty achievable.

[-misanthroptimist]

11. It's what the polling tells me at this point.

Once you strip away the right-wing polls flooding the zone and make a reasonable estimate of how Undecideds will break, it looks pretty obvious.

Hopefully, either Kamala will have long coattails or Traitortot will have long anti-coattails, or some combination that leads to us taking the House and Senate.

[CaliforniaPeggy]

12. Bookmarking to check against the final results. How much I hope you're right. nt

[H2O Man]

13. Recommended.

I'm predicting VP Harris by 9 million votes. Some states will be close, but I think the biggest electoral college vote since 2008. And I won't be surprised if 2024 is even bigger.

[displacedvermoter]

14. Alaska and Maine 2

Going to Harris I believe

[iemanja]

29. Alaska?

In what universe?
Bookmarking for election night.

[displacedvermoter]

38. Ok, guess I am worried.

[Fiendish Thingy]

15. I'm sticking with 284-288, even with IA in the mix.

[bottomofthehill]

41. Removed

[yardwork]

16. I hope you're right!

[MyMission]

17. I like the way you think!

Thanks for putting that together. I played with the numbers earlier, made myself some lists of states, and definitely see a victory for Harris. I think she may even get more than you predicted. I had 4 states I haven't assigned yet. IA, TX, FL, NC were within a few percentage points in the last election. That leaves room for us to win any of them, but we can win without them too.

Given the recent polling in Iowa, and the overall large turnout by women, not to mention the recent Puerto Rico comments, I think we might see Florida and Iowa turn Blue. I'm hopeful about NC but I live here and have been disappointed too many times to feel confident. And while I don't trust TX or FL election integrity, I still believe there's a chance one or both will flip by the shear numbers. I hope to be pleasantly surprised!

As I type this reply, it's almost 2 am Sunday, so 2 days until the election. I'm also wishfully thinking we may know the outcome late Tuesday or early Wednesday, even without all the states called! There will be enough states called to put her at 270 and declared the winner! The other EVs will follow. Big Blue wave coming!

[askyagerz]

19. I was thinking it might be close in AZ, GA and MI

But with the new Iowa poll I think it shows the non college white drop off from Trump is very real. That would be a game changer.

If Trump's biggest pool isn't that deep anymore he just isn't going to pull in enough minority males to make a bit of difference anywhere

I think if she takes all 7 swing states she will get IA no prob and FL and the TX senate race def in play

[Figarosmom]

21. I'd like to see a 1972

Only the other way around with Kamala wiping the floor with trump. Kamala 520

[onetexan]

22. Hatris sweeps all swing states, AND we may see a surprise or 2

😎🙏🌊🇺🇸🌊🇺🇸🌊🇺🇸

[BadgerKid]

24. Feel like it'd be a sad commentary on our electorate

If Harris wins only by 3% popular vote.

[Ruby the Liberal]

25. Looks reasonable to me

Iowa and Florida would wonderful icing on the cake you just baked!

[iemanja]

26. My prediction is that the Queen of England will win the election

Since we're engaging in fantasy, why not?

I don't suppose there is any point asking what data you've used to come up with this prediction?

[Elessar Zappa]

30. Why?

Every one of those states is winnable. It’s probably unlikely we win every swing state but it’s definitely possible.

[iemanja]

31. 8 point spread?

Because Harris is so far ahead in the polls.

I want Harris to win. I'm not going to concoct "predictions" based on my desires alone.

[Elessar Zappa]

32. I'm not sure what the popular vote lead will be.

2 million votes in favor of Harris on a bad night (we likely lose) or maybe up to ten million if we have a great night (Biden received seven million more than Trump in 2020).

[OnDoutside]

35. I hear she's 6 under at the moment ....

[iemanja]

37. Could well be

But those third-party candidates can be spoilers.

[Vinca]

28. That's a good prediction, but I hope we have a big surprise thrown in like one of the red states

unexpectedly turning. Iowa might do it or, even better Florida. A total surprise like Texas is my wildest dream.

[Mz Pip]

33. My prediction

286 for Harris. She’ll hold the Blue wall and Georgia. Lose AZ, NV and NC.

We’ll take the House. Not sure about the Senate.

[Turbineguy]

34. I like it.

[Prairie Gates]

40. I'm sticking with my sad prediction from yesterday

Trump: 287
Harris: 251

I hope it goes the other way.

[Metaphorical]

43. Also take into account third party

RFK.jr is still on the ballot in several states, and I can definitely see him drawing from Trump even as an ally. I CANNOT see Jill Stein drawing significantly from Kamala. Maybe some of the "hard left" that would probably have voted for Trump anyway (you get hard enough left and you're in Russia, which really aligns more with Trump anyway), and the ones that wouldn't vote for a woman president probably are neither Democrats nor likely to vote for Jill Stein to begin with.