Trump is visiting NC 4 saturday, sunday, monday..KOS deep dive into why

[Demovictory9]

https://www.dailykos.com/story/2024/11/2/2281914/-North-Carolina-Early-Voting-Deep-Dive





4.2 M early votes cast (5.5M total votes cast in 2020).

Methodology — 5% R delta defection to Harris, 4% R “no vote cast in presidential race,” U’s 53/43 Harris in Harris’s favor. IMO the U 53/43 assumption is conservative with respect to Harris. This gives us:

Harris — +/- 53%

Trump — +/- 46%

Other — +/- 1%

Voting demographics to date:

R = 33.6% (37% in total votes cast — 2020)

D = 32.6 (34% in total votes cast — 2020)

U = 34% (30% in total votes cast — 2020)

Observations:

North Carolina should (easily?) surpass 2020 vote total (as should Georgia).

Since R’s are voting in-person, early, they don’t have the election day fire-power to close a big gap. In fact, as long as D’s don’t fall asleep, the election day turnout percentages should be very close to equal (note percentage to date — vs. 2020 — just above).


Not only do the R’s not have the election day fire-power of previous cycles, there may "only” be just over 1M votes cast on election day. Bottom line, in North Carolina (and Georgia), we’re not going to see a huge election day swing.

Harris will win North Cackalacky roughly 51.5% to 47.5%. North Carolina is now the #2 tipping point State (after PA), and is a better bet than GA.

Donald Trump has scheduled four (4!!!!) NC appearances in the next 2 days. Harris has 1. That should tell us something.

Mark Robinson is a boat anchor. He’s 100% consistently trailing in polling. Right leaning polls have him down 5%. Legit polls 10%+. This might be a big reason we’re seeing the “U” vote at 34% so far as opposed to 30% in 2020.

[tanyev]

1. Operation Let Trump Speak has been working well for Democrats lately.

[Jersey Devil]

2. Because tfg MUST win NC or will have no path to victory

If he loses NC it is ballgame over.

[yardwork]

3. Robinson is a drag on Trump, and so were Trump's lies about hurricane relief.

I was shocked that Trump's team allowed him to keep telling evil lies about hurricane relief in NC. Most of the areas affected by the storm are Republican districts. The people living there saw FEMA, the military, and state responses. Even Republican representatives pleaded with Trump - publicly - to stop telling the lies.

And there's another factor: most of the military and law enforcement responders are, themselves, Republicans. North Carolina has a lot of military bases and those personnel - and their families - didn't appreciate being lied about by Trump and Robinson.

And here's another factor: military, law enforcement, power companies, and private citizens came into WNC from all over the country - especially from the Midwest. I'll bet they didn't appreciate being lied about by Trump. And I'll bet most of them are Republicans.

In times of disasters, Americans typically set aside politics to pitch in and work together. Trump's false claims that nobody was helping were evil and, easily proven false by a lot of Republicans' own eyes.

[Sky Jewels]

4. Very good news!

👍🏼