Kornacki: IA house race abortion ad spending could be reason for DMR poll with Harris up by 3 pts

[Dennis Donovan]

Steve Kornacki
June: DMR poll has Trump +18 vs. Biden in Iowa

July 29: Iowa’s six-week abortion ban goes into effect with intense controversy and news coverage

September 22: DMR poll shows 59-37% opposition to new abortion law — 69% among women. Also shows Trump lead over Harris at just 47-43%

All fall: Saturation ad spending and campaigning on abortion by Dem candidates in the state’s two toss-up House races

Now: Final DMR poll has massive gender gap pushing Harris into 47-44% lead
10:20 AM · Nov 3, 2024

Link to tweet

Steve Kornacki
Raises the question of how much of what the DMR poll finds is state-specific vs. also playing out in Wisconsin and elsewhere
10:26 AM · Nov 3, 2024

I don't think IA polling is a mirage or state-specific. It's a direct result of Dobbs and Trump's cognitive state.

Link to tweet

[Freethinker65]

1. Plus the fact that Trump is a horrendous GOP Candidate/person prioritizing fascism over democracy.

[TwilightZone]

4. Yeah, but that was the case even when he was up +18.

The big swing is about more than Trump. In fact, it may have very little to do with Trump and almost everything to do with Harris, her approach to the election, and the abortion issue.

[TwilightZone]

2. I noted the same trend in another thread.

Iowa has been trending toward Harris (or away from Trump) for months. Such a huge swing in just a few months almost certainly has to be about more than just Harris.

[viva la]

5. Iowa is a very white state, with no city over 250K.

So this gain isn't coming from the urban-diverse population.
Women and the men who love them-- let's hope, because that isn't an ephemeral value.

[TwilightZone]

7. The Des Moines metro has more than 700,000 people.

Des Moines itself is under 250k, but Des Moines is a lot more urban than that would seem to indicate. The metro sprawls around the city proper.

Iowa is about 65% urban. A swing of this magnitude - from +18 for Trump (vs. Biden) to +4 for Harris - would have to come from everywhere, not just rural Iowa. It's a remarkable swing if it proves to be true.

[viva la]

11. It really is hard to believe....

but I want to believe!

[pstokely]

12. also older and poorly educated

nt

[Lovie777]

3. UGH......................

after Tuesday we will find out.

[underpants]

6. Interesting. Ad spending goes UP the ballot.

[getagrip_already]

8. Could also be a Walz vs couch guy effect....

Tim is one of them. He and kamala resonate with them. Vance and tsf repulse them.

Then there are the issues of abortion, freedom, healthcare choices, our place in the world, etc.

So the affects are all additive. And tsf just keeps stepping on rakes......

[pstokely]

13. and maybe the ads targeting NB 2nd

the Omaha TV market includes Iowa

[Prairie Gates]

9. The faith I put in Kornacki's judgments

ZERO.

Fucking clown.

[peggysue2]

10. The query about a state-specific result?

Is a flare in the darkness, a light that is penetrating many of these polls while illuminating the shocked faces of the men reporting them.

Women have NOT forgotten what Trump and his hand-selected SCOTUS justices dumped on American women, women of all ages and races. Young women, of course, but even old women who no longer need to worry about pregnancy-related issues but have daughters and daughter-in-laws, grand-daughters and nieces and friends who are impacted, made fearful and outraged that female healthcare has been upended and dissembled because of a minority viewpoint was made law. This is a world in which a fetus is more important than a woman's life and ongoing health, where rape and incest are deemed inconvenient and miscarriage is a potential crime provoking a murder charge. The insanity has gone so far as serious consideration of tracking menstrual cycles, ensuring women do not travel across states lines and God knows what else.

ENOUGH!

Time to send the Morality Police packing in every state, every corner.

Women have not forgotten!

Our memory and anger will be on full display this Tuesday.