Female turnout and other decisive factors
I thought I'd seek insight from some of the knowledgeable people here on what seem to be key factors that may decide the election results.
* Female turnout. This link from NBC news tracks the percentage of mail in/early votes that have come from women in each state.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-elections/early-vote
It looks promising at 53% female nationally and higher in some swing states: 56% PA, 55% MI, 55% NC, 56% GA, 55% NC, 55% IA (a respected pollster just showed Kamala 3% ahead in Iowa).
I posted this link in here a while ago and some DU'ers cautioned me that women always vote more than men and that this data is only provided by 6 states, so NBC is inferring the rest of it. However, I was thinking that in the 2022 midterms, pollsters predicted a red wave that didn't materialize, largely because of increased female turnout because of the Dobbs decision.
If people here have any input about the answers, I have a few questions that seem relevant to understanding this situation:
1. What level of female turnout is generally factored into most polls? If it's 52% or 53% and women are turning out at 56%, then all of the polls could be underestimating Kamala.
2. At what level did women turn out in the 2022 midterms and by how much did it exceed the expectations of the polling models to cause the unforeseen results?
3. Has hurricane Helene impacted voter turnout in western North Carolina? That part of the state is overwhelmingly republican. If turnout is reduced there in a close election, it could make a difference.