When will we get a pretty good idea of a victory for Harris on Tuesday night?

[CTyankee]

Anybody have a guess?

[underpants]

1. A few here

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100219593092

[getagrip_already]

2. If you see florida called, pop the champagne...

FL will report early. On the off chsnce they go blue, thats it. Its over.

Otherwise, it could be midnight any night before sunday.

[CTyankee]

5. why does Florida's vote indicate what happens elsewhere?

[Grown2Hate]

6. Basically, if we win FL, it means something

happened in the electorate overall that shifted DRASTICALLY to Harris. Also, those 29 Electoral Votes would mean she could lose 2 of the 3 "Blue Wall" states and still win. It'd be ballgame.

[getagrip_already]

8. Because if we get florida's 30 electoral college votes, we cant lose

Tsf will have ZERO paths to 270 without running the table and getting every swing state.

Its just too big a loss. Plus, if he loses FL, he will lose a lot of other states he should have won. It would be a route.

[Dock_Yard]

9. FL has for 20y been "reliably red" and it has a huge electoral vote count

FL counts don't necessarily indicate what happens elsewhere.
I think the OP is watching A) the very close Senate race -- Mucarsel(D) vs incumbent nazi Scott(R), and B) the general referendum vote on abortion. So FL has a small chance to buck typical "red state" results this year.

[SKKY]

18. I want FL to flip not because we need it necessarily, but I want to see TFG go absolutely...

...nuclear on DeSantis for not delivering FL to him. Yes, I know schadenfreude is never a good look, but in this particular instance, I'd allow myself the guilty pleasure.

[CrispyQ]

3. When they call FL for her.

A girl can dream.

[Brother Buzz]

4. Before the West coast polls even close

[Grown2Hate]

7. My answer is NC. They count QUICKLY

and call relatively early. It's a state she doesn't "need" to win, so if they call that for her, Trump has virtually no path.

[askyagerz]

12. Yep if we see NC flip its over

I think we are gonna see the women overperforming there pretty early

[lindysalsagal]

21. Robinson may drive the women's vote for Kamala.

[sky_masterson]

14. That is my first clue

If Harris wins it, she is going to have an Awesome night!

[Funtatlaguy]

10. Download the 2020 results

When a state is called, look at who won it in 2020 and by what margin. That should be a big clue.

[Metaphorical]

11. I think Iowa will be the bellwether state

Iowa and Ohio have tended to mirror one another politically for a while now. If either Iowa or Ohio go blue (and I think Iowa probably will, while it will be closer in Ohio) then the blue wall has held. My other reference indicator is North Carolina. If both Ohio and Iowa go blue, it'll be a blowout.

In my opinion, both Florida and Texas are so ratf*ked as to be unattainable. If Florida goes Blue, Trump's going to be hard-pressed to hit 200 EVs, because if FL goes, so will GA and TN, and possibly IN. I think that TX refusal to allow Federal pollwatchers is evidence that Greg Abbott is nervous enough that they plan to cheat any way possible. Personally, I think the feds should fly in watchers in black suits and sunglasses in black helicopters, if nothing else than to freak Abbott out, but that would probably not be astute politically.

I think in the West that NV and CO will probably go to Kamala, not as sure about AZ.

Here's what I think we'll end up with:
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDY2ODQ3ODI0OTIw7UuSHFmWbUGSbUFRZFuSbVeKZcW1Kg

and here's what I think a blowout would look like (if Trump has a truly bad night)
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTczMDY2ODY0MzIxOTkwLUuSJFmSbEmSbUGSZFmSLVuSZUm2Kg

As to time, I don't think we'll know conclusively until Thursday, but I don't see it dragging out much past that. Again, NC or IA will be the kicker. If we're losing Pennsylvania by Tuesday at midnight, we've lost.

[Fiendish Thingy]

13. Networks probably won't call it Tuesday night

Pennsylvania and WI are slow counters, but GA and NC could give us an early clue to how things are going.

[dsc]

15. VA closes early

if they call VA before 7:30 that bodes well for NC and GA. If NC gets called for her it is close to over for Trump (he would have to win two of the 3 blue wall states and GA if he did). If Kentucky can't be called for him quickly that could be bad for him. A loss in ME 2 would also be bad for him. Signs of trouble for us would be NH being closer than it should be, VA being closer than it should be, and a quick loss in both NC and GA.

[W_HAMILTON]

19. I don't know that Virginia is a good barometer.

In 2020, I remember a family member trolling me about how Trump was going to win because he was up in Virginia. This was relatively late into the night, maybe 10pm'ish. The blue areas up near DC were just slow to report. Virginia came in earlier than the blue wall state late surge around 2am/3am, but they were too late too be a good indicator of who was going to win, especially given the fact that if you used them, you were probably worried Trump was going to win given that he was up in that commonwealth for several hours after closing.

[dsc]

20. If they call early it will be because he does worse in his part of VA

I am not saying if they don't call early she is in trouble only that if they do she is in great shape.

[mucholderthandirt]

16. By 9:00 pm, EST. First results coming in, all Harris/Walz ahead.

I think it will be called pretty early, for Harris/Walz. No doubts, big margins, no waiting until Wednesday or any of that nonsense.

Will Trump claim he won? Sure. But, it doesn't matter. As long as the states do as they're told and certify the votes, as long as the various National Guard units are deployed as needed, there's not going to be anything truly bad happening. Certainly not another Jan6.

[Kaleva]

17. When the media declares it. That will be my clue