We just don't know what will happen Tuesday

[edhopper]

You can find stories and polls that show Drumpf will win.
And others that show Kamala definitely will.
There is no way to know. Wish for the best, plan for the worst, embrace uncertainty.

[IbogaProject]

1. The stakes are high

Between Abortion and their plans for economic contraction the stakes are high. This is a very clear article about the stakes. Oil is an ever more loosing bet, it's getting more and more difficult to pump and staying with oil will lead to economic disaster.
https://bylinetimes.com/2024/11/01/american-carnage-the-musk-trump-plan-for-total-collapse/

[underpants]

2. 👍

[OAITW r.2.0]

3. Kamala will win - Trump will contest.

And Trump will lose again. Maybe extend his losing streak to 1-100?

[Aepps22]

4. Vote, Volunteer and GOTV

That’s what we can do

[spanone]

5. Our media has surely failed us. imho

[TomSlick]

6. Embrace uncertainty indeed.

We can't know until we know. Anything else is reading tea leaves.

[BannonsLiver]

7. I know what's going to happen.

But I’m not telling. 🤐🤫

[appmanga]

8. In 2016, there were some Democratic old heads...

...like Ed Rendell who pointing old that things weren't going as well as they seemed. The same was echoed by Michael Moore. There hasn't been any of that this weekend, or in the last few days.

The most challenge subject I ever took in all my years of schooling was statistics, so I'm not good at them, but I do know garbage-in, garbage-out. Just about every poll I've seen has used a model of overweighting to account for "hard to reach potential Trump voters", or "shy Trump voters". These polls typically have had MOEs about four percent, which isn't indicative of a high confidence.

For those who've gotten into a depression, panic, or state of anxiety over the polls, you shouldn't. I don't make predictions, but I do feel like enough women, disaffected Republicans, and independents who took the Harris' campaign's advice to take time to watch her opponent at his rallies and interviews, have come to the conclusion that ran and file Democrats have: four more years of Trump is not the answer to making anything better. And, unlike 2016, nobody's taking the conclusion for granted.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

9. 538

538

UPDATED Nov. 3, 2024, at 7:03 PM

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Trump wins 53 times out of 100
in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris wins 46 times out of 100.
There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

While that model leans a little toward Trump, it's essentially a coin toss.

And pollsters get it wrong. They got it most famously wrong in 2016, but think back just two years ago to the "Red Wave" that was predicted in the midterms. It turned out to be a gigantic fizzle.

[edhopper]

10. What's their

margin of error?
And what economic and demographic data? Seems they are making a lot of guesses and assumptions about the voters.

[Algernon Moncrieff]

12. Here is today's forecast and what they wrote that speaks to your point.

538

Who Is Favored To Win The 2024 Presidential Election?
538 uses polling, economic and demographic data to explore likely election outcomes.
Trump wins 52 times out of 100 in our simulations of the 2024 presidential election.
Harris wins 48 times out of 100. There is a less than 1-in-100 chance of no Electoral College winner.

Now that we are in the closing days of the 2024 presidential race, pollsters have started releasing their final readings of the campaign. They have mostly been a mixed bag. On Friday, Marist College released their highly-anticipated final polls across the Midwestern states, finding Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points in Michigan, 2 points in Pennsylvania and 2 points in Wisconsin. That would be good news for Harris if those were the only polls released this week, but they weren’t: An Echelon Insights survey found Trump up 5 points in the Keystone State, and CNN/SSRS has the former president up by 1 in Georgia. In aggregate, this has been enough to push our model modestly back in Harris’s direction. Currently, our forecast gives Trump a 52 out of 100 chance of winning the election, and gives Harris a 48 out of 100 chance.

Still, the closeness of the race bears repeating what has become something of a mantra here at 538 recently: A close race in the polls does not necessarily mean the outcome will be close. All seven swing states are still within a normal polling error of going to the candidate who is currently “losing” in each. While the polls have identified a close race, our model shows what you should expect if those polls are off.

[DFW]

11. I accept and tolerate the uncertainty. I don't embrace it.

This is one year when I would prefer a sure thing.

This is one year when it is not unimaginable to see the Democrat win the election, and the Republican take office, although in this particular case, the Republican would really have to take the office, as in by force. I don't see Harris losing the election if it is conducted fairly and legitimately. That is an "if," however, on which I am not ready to bet any money. The Republicans know what they have to lose. Their crooked governors in Florida and Texas especially, though I wouldn't count out Montana and Ohio, are not known for their undying dedication to fairness or the law. Indeed, hope for the best, but prepare for some heartbreak as well.

I can't imagine Harris losing the election. But, as Republican role model Josef Stalin is reputed to have observed; "Those who cast the votes decide nothing. Those who count the votes decide everything." You can win the election and lose the presidency. Just ask Al Gore.

The one thing I think I can safely predict is that one year from now, Donald Trump will not be president. That will be either Kamala Harris or Senator Vance. As I put it a month or so ago: