*****BREAKING A RATED MARIST POLL***** Harris 51% TFG 47%

[DemocratSinceBirth]

U.S. Presidential Contest, November 2024
Harris +4 Points Against Trump Nationally




https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/u-s-presidential-contest-november-2024/


DSB'S NOTES:

Marist is rated 6th out of 280 polls, That's an A in my book
A four point national lead is very likely to lead to an Electoral College win. That's what virtually all the forecasters predict

[JohnSJ]

1. but, but the nbc poll...........

[JCMach1]

44. No way in hell Trump gets 49+

Even if he were to win. NoPe

[JohnSJ]

45. Especially seeing it is a national poll, and the whole West Coast along with NY and most of the North East would

question that number.

[senseandsensibility]

65. The NBC poll is of registered voters

Insane that they are still reporting registered voters on the eve of the election.

[dchill]

68. They're just taking out the trash.

They paid for a Registered Voter poll without checking the expiration date. Trump will NEVER get 49%.

[JohnSJ]

70. Thanks for the information, I didn't realize that.

[North Shore Chicago]

2. She is going to stomp him!

He will be an orange grease spot when this is over.

[ShazzieB]

59. Absolutely!

[awesomerwb1]

3. That orange motherf*cker

should be at 30% in a normal world without 24 hour propaganda channels like f*x and the other crazy ones on the right.

[Dem4life1234]

54. This all day!

That piece of trash should not be polling above 30%!

I am ashamed to share the same country with these idiots. There are too many dumbasses supporting him.

There have been half decent Republican candidates who have far lower support ratings in past elections , while this asshole gets this much? That tells me he appeals to the lowest of the low and there are a lot of dusty ass no shit people in this country.

[Dark n Stormy Knight]

79. Any insurrectionist should be at 0%.

Especially a fucking moron like him.

[LexVegas]

4. Let's go!!! nt

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

5. It's a good poll, but it's NATIONAL. What about in the swing states? Are there polls there as well? nt

[DemocratSinceBirth]

7. A four point national lead is very likely to lead to an Electoral College win.

A four point national lead is very likely to lead to an Electoral College win. That's what virtually all the forecasters predict

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

11. But isn't it within the MOE?

[littlemissmartypants]

26. You don't need to repeat...

Your Reply Title in the Reply Text box.



❤️

[whopis01]

63. Biden ended up with a 4.5% lead in the 2020 election. n/t

[Deminpenn]

49. Marist did swing state polls

a couple days ago. Link was posted on one of threads about them.

[Deminpenn]

50. Marist did swing state polls

a couple days ago. Link was posted on one of threads about them.

[Zambero]

6. Steve K. will be right on top of this!

Unless he wants to keep going with the 49-49 "deadlock".

[getagrip_already]

19. He will be shocked! Stunned! As the results roll in!

Nobody expected this! Its a complete surprise!

[Rocknation]

24. And the ONLY reason the corporate pollsters and media are "expecting" it at this late date

is because the "real" internal polls of the candidates say that Kamala will win by at least twice that much, and they don't want to look like total idiots.


Rocknation

[senseandsensibility]

66. Of "registered" voters

too, just to make it even less relevant.

[Jerry2144]

8. When I compare the two campaigns

It seems that the Feeling has done nothing and offers nothing to encourage people who haven’t voted for him to vote for him now. And he has convinced almost 0 Harris voters to vote for him. He might have only gained enough votes to fill a small basketball arena in the whole country.

VPOTUS Harris, on the other hand, has likely convinced 100s of time more voters to vote for her, that were on the fence about whether to vote or vote for her, as well as several of his former supporters. She has done more to encourage people about why they should vote for her than he has to convince pale to vote for him.


I’d be surprised if he gets as many votes as he did in 2020. I expect Harris will exceed Biden’s totals or at least come close to his numbers

[oasis]

13. +1

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

15. Oh, there's no doubt she will exceed them. She has got tons of repubs and independent voters added to her

voter coalition. Fingers crossed this election is going to be a big huge blowout. I truly believe the Harris campaign knows it but to ensure the voters continue to go to the polls to vote. Can’t have anybody decide to stay home because a landslide is a comin’.

[NJCher]

46. I've noticed, too

she is a master at common sense and setting out low expectations ("We are the underdog." )

She can do that: her ego isn't tattered, in shreds, and in constant need of repair.

[BlueState]

17. That pretty much sums up my gut feel

I'd even go further. Everything Trump has done in the last couple of weeks underscores the reasons why many Republicans and right leaning Independents are uncomfortable with him in the first place.

[Quixote1818]

9. Finally a pollster that has the balls not to herd. nt

[getagrip_already]

20. They will all come to reality for their final polls...

And they will jigger the moe's wider to make it easier to be right in the end

That way they can point to their last poll and say they were right in '24.

[Self Esteem]

10. This is where I think it'll end up in the popular vote.

[Johnny2X2X]

14. I think more like 53-45

She's banked so many early votes and turnout is going to shatter records.

Trump did not add many voters.

[Self Esteem]

27. Doubtful. Harris isn't winning by a larger margin than Obama in 2008.

[NoRethugFriends]

32. stop adding realism to this thread! 😎

[debm55]

31. Agree, i can't see how he is polling what he is

[TwilightZone]

38. Turnout may still break records, but early voting numbers are partly due to an R strategic shift.

They're voting early in much larger numbers than in most prior elections. In Florida, for example, they have a one million vote edge in early voting over Democrats.

Total turnout can't be easily extrapolated by looking at prior elections because so much has changed.

Of course, as a result of the shift, the usual R edge on election day will very likely be smaller than many expected. As noted, turnout might still break records, but that depends on how many shifted to voting early.

[SouthernCal_Dem]

12. Nice

[OneBlueDotS-Carolina]

16. I participated in this poll

I've never been polled before, was pretty stright forward with the questions, except there was one that had a list of 10 or 12 fruits, what was my favorite. End of the poll was basic stuff, age, income, education...could a reporter contact me. Took maybe 10 minutes tops. I was contacted by a text.

[Dennis Donovan]

18. Graphics

Matt McDermott
Final Marist poll: Harris +4% lead nationally

12:21 PM · Nov 4, 2024

Link to tweet

[TheKentuckian]

21. Run full out through the tape!

But the reality is Chump has likely struck Republican Kryptonite and is bleeding older white folks.

[anamnua]

22. From my perusal of past election results

once the gap is greater than three percentage points it pretty well insures you against countervailing quirks of the electoral college system.

[TheRickles]

23. And that could be 51.4% vs 46.6%, for an actual margin of 4.8% (ie, 5%).

Too bad they round off the totals and don't go down to the tenth of a percent. Then her margin could legitimately be reported as 5% in this poll (which is 25% bigger and more impressive than the 4% margin reported here)

[LAS14]

25. Click on the link. The details are a bit more sobering. nt

[Prairie Gates]

29. What are some of the sobering points at the link, in your view?

[LAS14]

33. Sobering bits.

Trump (51%) has a slight lead against Harris (46%), among independents, comparable to what the two candidates received in early October.

Trump (53%) has majority support among those who say they have yet to vote.

Gen Z and Millennials (56%) and Baby Boomers (55%) break for Harris. Trump (53%) receives majority support among the Silent/Greatest Generation. Members of Gen X divide (51% for Trump to 48% for Harris).

Of course there were other details that were good for Harris, but you asked about the sobering bits.

[Prairie Gates]

35. Thanks for posting those rather than just referring people to the link

[jcgoldie]

37. based on the large margins i've seen many places for Harris among early voters...

... I don't think 53% among those voting on election day is nearly enough for Trump.

[Zambero]

43. And many of those "not yet voted"

will not bother to vote tomorrow. Given the enthusisam gap (EG) favoring Kamala and the polls' margin of error possibly understating the EG effect, I wouldn't lose too much sleep over that 53% figure.

[kansasobama]

48. I agree

Just supporting is not enough.

[yardwork]

71. In context of previous elections, these aren't good indicators for Trump.

[KPN]

34. No thanks. I don't need more sobering right now. Got enough of that in me already. I'm going with

positivity from here out -- or at least I hope I can and am!

[BannonsLiver]

41. Agree

Tired of people working their asses off to find bad news in good news. Give it a fucking rest already.

[Thrill]

28. How can Trump be getting 47%?

What’s wrong with these people?

[The Madcap]

47. Well, they are idiots first...

That's what happens when R's deliberately gut public education. You get Idiocracy.

[Klarkashton]

61. That's all he ever gets, no more than that.

[Emile]

30. I'm sensing a LANDSLIDE

[askyagerz]

36. Trump still has a 47% ceiling

After all the hoopla and latest polls I never once believed he was going to suddenly break out over 47%

[TwilightZone]

56. That's mostly a myth.

Someone just made it up, and we latched on to it. He's been higher than 47% in many individual polls and up to 48% in some aggregated poll averages, including the NYT.

To be clear, I don't think he'll get more than 47%, but the assertion that it is and always was a hard ceiling isn't really supported by facts.

[askyagerz]

62. His actual national votes have never broken 47%

46.1% in 2016 and 46.8% in 2020. So I'm just saying any poll that has had him nationally over 47% is probably a point or 2 off in Trump's favor.
So if NBC has them both at 49% that probably means all of their polls are off by a few points. Depending on their modeling. Including swing states which would mean Harris would take all 7

[DownriverDem]

39. Stop the National Polls

We all know it's state by state. National polls mean nothing.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

40. The larger the popular vote lead the less likely it is to diverge from the Electoral College

The tipping point states are PA and NC and it's about 1.5%. I put it in the original post.

[BannonsLiver]

52. I like reading them.

[iemanja]

53. How about you just not open the thread rather than trying to dictate what DUers can read?

[DemocratSinceBirth]

77. I know a candidate who wants to dictate what we can day and resd.

[usonian]

42. Who's going to believe a Marxist poll?

(reaches for reading glasses)

ME



GO KAMALA AND TIM.

[dchill]

69. Yeah, sure, but what does Harpo say? Hmm? 😏

[usonian]

72. Not a word! I posted this in response to the fabulous Kamalas mirror scene.

[dchill]

73. Understood. 👍

[bucolic_frolic]

51. 47%? Tiny fingers still can't get it up. /nt

[James48]

55. STOP it already!

The vote has not yet been cast - for the majority of Americans.

It is unwise to celebrate a poll - ANY POLL. A- while we still have work to do!

Get out the vote !

Volunteer to drive people to the polls tomorrow.

[J_William_Ryan]

57. "What's wrong with these people?"

There’s a great deal of fear, ignorance, stupidity, racism, bigotry, misogyny, and hate in support of Trump.

[kimbutgar]

64. I'm betting 55% for VP Harris and 44% convicted felon 1% Jill Stein/ other

[liberalla]

67. I love reading this! Thank you!

[PoindexterOglethorpe]

74. I keep on telling people it's going

to be 72 to 6.

And everyone needs to look at what Alan Lichtman has said. Just google his name. He's been interviewed a lot this election cycle.

Far too many of those interviewers just don't listen to what he says, and don't bother to even speed-read his keys.

[theplayer]

75. 435

Harris's total amount of electoral votes.

[Lovie777]

76. shithole is not getting 47%...........................

it will be low....errrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr

[Emile]

78. K & R