My predictions

[yardwork]

I've never done this before! Please add your predictions to the thread.

I feel very confident that:

- Kamala Harris will win both the popular vote and electoral college by clear margins. The decision will come fairly quickly.

- Harris will win most of the swing states outright, with the Georgia decision coming in late (maybe weeks later) and not being essential to her win.

- The political careers of Donald Trump, JD Vance, and Ron DeSantis are over. Vance will not run for reelection to the senate. Trump and DeSantis will never win their party's nomination for anything again.

- Nikki Haley will be back, a contender for the 2028 GOP nomination. Liz Cheney will run, too.

- The Republican Party will quietly begin to dismantle abortion as a key issue in their platform. Some states will roll back draconian anti-abortion laws.

- With the loss of anti-abortion as a motivating principle, American Protestant churches will have to grapple with their purpose and goals. Many churches will close due to declining membership.

- The impacts of climate change on the economy, national security, infrastructure, and geo-political disruptions will accelerate and become far more important to voters in the near future.

- Meddling by billionaire sociopaths and leaders of Russia, China, Iran, and others will continue, especially in online propaganda, fueled by AI. Young people and aging people will be especially susceptible. Due to this misinformation, it will become more difficult to predict voting patterns by age and other demographics.

Things I'm fairly sure will happen...

- I think Harris may win some surprise states. While she might lose some swing states everyone's been watching, I think she might win Ohio, Iowa, possibly others. (Definitely not TX, though. Not yet.)

- I think the Democrats might retake the House and keep the Senate tied, with Walz as the tie-breaker.

- I don't think there will be any significant post election civil disruptions like we saw in 2022. I think the MAGATs are disillusioned and will fade away for a while, to return again one day....

- I fear that Putin and Iran will escalate things in the Middle East, creating as big a problem as they can for Harris's incoming administration. Their goal is to wipe Israel off the face of the earth and divide Democrats. This will be the cause of civil disruptions in the U.S.

[ALBliberal]

1. That was stellar! I agree just about everything'

[yardwork]

3. Please share your thoughts!

[onetexan]

10. Likewise!! Great predictions

[yardwork]

14. Thanks!

[Tetrachloride]

2. I am going along with most of this

no idea on Ohio and Texas

[yardwork]

5. Ohio is a hunch and I could be wrong.

[DURHAM D]

4. from your fingers to god's ears ... nt

[yardwork]

6. Thanks, sweetie!

Interesting times!

[DURHAM D]

7. Amen

[brer cat]

8. I think the republicans will be very surprised and dismayed tomorrow.

Kamala will beat all expectations. Yes, I'm feeling very optimistic.

[yardwork]

13. I think the GOP already knows...

I'm guessing there is some frantic damage-control planning going on right now. I suspect there will be vengeance against Trump and his allies. Expect in-fighting.

[MLAA]

9. Well done! I'm with you.

[yardwork]

11. Thanks! I hope we're right!

[TBF]

12. I'm in TX and don't anticipate it going blue yet -

I'd love to be wrong. I feel like a state that continues to put Abbott in the governor's seat is not quite there yet. BUT if we could possibly kick Ted Cruz to the curb, it will make my day!

[yardwork]

15. Wouldn't that be great!

[lees1975]

16. You've already nailed a couple of points.

- With the loss of anti-abortion as a motivating principle, American Protestant churches will have to grapple with their purpose and goals. Many churches will close due to declining membership.

Evangelicals are already in this boat. The largest Evangelical denomination, the Southern Baptist Convention, has lost 3.2 million members since 2016, which is over 20% of their total membership. They have churches closing literally every week.

- The Republican Party will quietly begin to dismantle abortion as a key issue in their platform. Some states will roll back draconian anti-abortion laws.

At Trump's direction, neither a national abortion ban, or opposition to gay marriage is in the platform. He sold out his Evangelical constituency when he realized abortion was going to be a massive vote getter for the Democrats. Most of them have paid no attention, are too dumb to know what he did, or don't care because that wasn't what was driving their support for him, it was just a ruse in conversation.

[yardwork]

19. Yeah, several of these are gimmees.

I'm risk-averse.

I'm just looking at the big picture of what's ahead.

[FloridaBlues]

17. Harris wins 5%. Expect upsets. Gain house seats 10-20

Keep senate. Change statehouses more than we have done last election.
Expect republican lawsuits.

[yardwork]

18. I like your predictions!

[Duncan Grant]

20. Capitalism (as we know it) will be forced to evolve.

I believe we have no choice; implement a sustainable economic system or die. (Also, I’m fun to talk to at parties.)

[yardwork]

21. Jeez, Duncan! lol!

[Mortos]

22. I like your predictions!

Except, no way Vance doesn't run for re-election in the Senate. That little prick is burrowed in like a tick.

[yardwork]

23. I'm out on a limb with that prediction. Here's my reasoning.

Vance has proven to be a shockingly bad campaigner. He's good in televised debates because he lies smoothly, but he can't interact with humans.

I think Vance will be blamed for Trump's loss. Vance will have failed to deliver a single state that wasn't already in Trump's column. Vance might even lose his home state of OH (This would delight me.)

He might win reelection to the senate but he might decide instead that there are easier ways to make money. I think he's a smart sociopath who will decide to pivot, change his colors like he does, and disappear into billionaire land.

[SergeStorms]

28. Thiel has too much invested in Vance.

He wants at least a minimal ROI. Vance will remain in politics for some time to come.

[Susan Calvin]

24. Agree, except not so sure about Texas.

I am clinging to my possibly irrational hope there. This message originates from Texas.

[yardwork]

32. I'm saying not Texas.

[Susan Calvin]

33. Yes, I read that in the OP. nt

[yardwork]

34. Sorry! I totally misunderstood!

Wow! That would be awesome.

[Susan Calvin]

35. I've been hearing firsthand

Of quite a few Republicans voting for Harris. Also Beto O'Rourke's organization has been registering massive numbers of new young voters. And even though Harris is polling behind, Allred is polling even. One can hope.

[sheshe2]

25. I believe your predictions are spot on.

Something is happening, you can feel it, a ground swell. I felt the same with Obama. You could almost hear it if you listened hard enough.

I think women, women of color and yes, the youth vote, thanks to the likes of Victor Shi, David Hogg and Tayor Swift to name a few, are going to help swing it.

It's not the close race they say it is, the 'polls' are pretty much bogus. I look at the numbers and the genuine excitement of Kamala's rallys.

We can and will do this.

Thank you Yardwork!

[rubbersole]

26. I'm in Florida and tsf's signs are a fraction of previous elections.

Rick Scott is a pos and unpopular everywhere. Mail-in ballots are counted as they arrive. Pot and abortion are on the ballot. I think it will be the shocker of Tuesday night that Florida is called for Harris. By midnight. (Hey, I've been called Pollyanna before.)

[WheelWalker]

30. I'm picking Florida as my super-sized surprise.

[SergeStorms]

27. Harris by 5% or more in the popular vote......

and 306 electoral college votes (yes, the exact same number as Biden in 2020).

That's my story and I'm sticking to it. 😁

[WheelWalker]

29. I can't wait for Lindsey to turn a whiter shade of pale.

[jmowreader]

31. I predict the collapse of the Republican Party

The best way to describe the GOP we've got now is "strange bedfellows" - their big tent houses both people who'd disband the Marines if it meant we could use the savings to fund another tax cut and people whose draconian social policies will require a massive increase in both the size of the government and the size of your tax bill if even part of it gets adopted. Romania's abortion ban doubled the size of the government and it'll be worse in the US because Romania has the landmass of Oregon and the population of Florida. (Romania also had a communist dictator so evil he scared the Soviets, which also helped.)

After Trump gets stomped, there will be a come-to-Jesus moment in their party. The first group will argue the reason they lost the election is the greater American populace and even a lot of Republicans didn't like the social proposals the second group came up with. They'll point out things like women dying in Texas from failed pregnancies doctors won't intervene in and OB/GYNs abandoning Idaho. The other group will counter that the reason they lost is they didn't go far enough to the right - that people really want the Republic of Gilead from A Handmaid's Tale (well, maybe not the part where food labels just have a picture of what's in the can so those nasty wimminfolk won't think we're allowing them to read) and if it wasn't for you assholes we'd have it.

Endstate: we get a "No Taxes At All Republican Party" and a "You Will Be The Kind Of Christian We Want You To Be Republican Party," each taking half the current GOP electorate, and neither of which will ever win an election because even Idaho can glom together four Democrats for every six of the other two parties combined.