Jon Ralston predicts Harris win in Nevada

[arlyellowdog]

https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

[Sky Jewels]

1. YES!!!

Ralston is to Nevada as Ann Selzer is to Iowa.

[BootinUp]

4. That's like money in the bank then!

[Jersey Devil]

2. Bad Gateway

The site is probably overwhelmed.

[arlyellowdog]

6. https://thenevadaindependent.com/article/editor-jon-ralstons-2024-nevada-election-predictions

[W_HAMILTON]

15. It has been overwhelmed.

Ralston is damn near Nostradamus when it comes to Nevada elections and people have been waiting for this -- including MAGA this year, since many of Ralston's blogs thus far have been touting a Republican edge in early voting so he probably got their hopes up, only to dash them at the very end.

[Fiendish Thingy]

3. Wow- he's been doom and gloom on NV for weeks

This is another BFD. If Harris takes NV and IA, we will be looking good tomorrow night (although I think NV is a slow counter, so we may not see that state called tomorrow)

[SunImp]

20. I think he gets off on it

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

Link to tweet

[obamanut2012]

22. He always does that

In 2020 he said Biden was out of blue votes and would lose.

Biden did not lose.

[LexVegas]

5. Let's go!!! nt

[Cha]

7. I Adore John Ralston's reporting on Nevada over the years! We can't go to the site, tho..

can you tell us what you read about it? TY

[arlyellowdog]

11. He credits the Harry Reed machine

And the automatic registration the Democrats pushed for that registers as Independent, but the machine knows who they are.

[ZonkerHarris]

12. Harry Reid. Legend.

[tavernier]

26. There was a DU lady here at onetime who had a little fling with Harry

Many years back. I won’t say who it was but it was a fun story.

[Cha]

13. Thank you so much, arlyellowdog🕊️🕯️💙🌊🌊🌊💙🇺🇸🌈

[arlyellowdog]

8. Read the story of his transgender son

And cry at the beauty of the last line.

[central scrutinizer]

9. My SIL was knocking on doors in NV

She lives in the SF Bay Area

[Cha]

16. TY & your SIL! 🕊️🕯️💙🌊🌊🌊💙🇺🇸🌈

[MiKenMi33]

10. I've been checking on his prediction daily.

I always left disappointed until now. This makes me breathe easier. Thank you for posting this.

[Lovie777]

14. Geez....................

if it's that close between Harris and that other person, it may take years to straighten it out.

[Jmb 4 Harris-Walz]

17. Is Jon Ralston a pollster? If so, what are the numbers? Can you remember them?

[W_HAMILTON]

19. Even better -- he makes his predictions based on actual early voting data.

And he's been damn near perfect as long as I've been following him, which has been several years/elections now.

[SunImp]

23. Check out Dr John Samuelsen

He's more sane and less of a drama queen than ralston
https://twitter.com/JohnRSamuelsen

[W_HAMILTON]

18. Here is a snippet of the two main predictions, for those still having a hard time accessing the site:

----President: I have been calling this The Unicorn Election because of the unusual voting patterns. It’s really hard to know what will happen with mail ballots and Election Day turnout with so many Republicans voting early. But here’s what I do know: Both sides – at least people who understand the data on both sides – believe this will be close. That’s because, if past is prologue in the mail-ballot era (last two cycles), tens of thousands of mail ballots will come in between now and Friday (the deadline). It’s a simple question: Can the Democrats catch up? It’s really a coin flip, and I know people on both sides who have analyzed the data who can’t decide. I have gone back and forth in my own head for days, my eyes glazing over with numbers and models and extrapolations. The key to this election has always been which way the non-major-party voters break because they have become the plurality in the state. They are going to make up 30 percent or so of the electorate and if they swing enough towards Harris, she will win Nevada. I think they will, and I’ll tell you why: Many people assume that with the GOP catching up to the Democrats in voter registration that the automatic voter registration plan pushed by Democrats that auto-registers people as nonpartisans (unless they choose a party) at the DMV had been a failure for the party. But I don’t think so. There are a lot of nonpartisans who are closet Democrats who were purposely registered by Democrat-aligned groups as nonpartisans. The machine knows who they are and will get them to vote. It will be just enough to overcome the Republican lead – along with women motivated by abortion and crossover votes that issue also will cause. I know some may think this reflects my well-known disdain for Trump, heart over data. But that is not so. I have often predicted against my own preferences; history does not lie. I just have a feeling she will catch up here, but I also believe – and please remember this – it will not be clear who won on Election Night here, so block out the nattering nabobs of election denialism. It’s going to be very, very close. Prediction: Harris, 48.5 percent; Trump 48.2 percent; others and None of These Candidates, 3.3 percent.

----Senate: I don’t think anyone has run a better race than Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV) has this cycle. It has been almost flawless. She raised a fortune, then spent it early after Sam Brown won the primary pummeling him on abortion and his, ahem, evolving positions. He could never gain his footing and was reduced to prostrating himself before Trump and right-wing cranks. It was almost sad for a guy with a remarkable story of survival and commitment to going on with his life. The truth is, though, that national Republicans settled on Brown, a relatively recent Texas transplant who has never won a race, because the GOP bench here is so thin. He was never in the top tier of GOP hopes, who were more focused on Montana and Ohio. I never believed the polls that showed Rosen up by double digits or high single digits. That’s just not how we roll in Nevada in Senate races. But she will win and this one may be over on Election Night. Prediction: Rosen, 50 percent; Brown, 45 percent; others and none of the above, 5 percent.

Be sure to donate to Ralston's news organization if you can to show support for him and his team's hard work. Here is the link to donate -- https://nevadaindependent.fundjournalism.org/donate/?campaign=7013i000000tKk8AAE -- but given all the scams that are out there, it's probably best everyone get in the habit of going to the actual website and clicking their donation link through there. His news organization is The Nevada Independent, but if you look up Ralston Nevada on Google you'll see his verified links come up.

[Florida Dem]

21. I Hope So

He's predicting 48.5 for Harris and 48.2 for Trump. So yes, he's predicting a Harris win but it's EXTREMELY close. Not counting my chickens before they hatch on this particular race. He also says that we likely will not have a result on election night. So get ready for the Trump nonsense as Clark county ballots come in. I had almost written Nevada off so I'm happy to see that we have a good shot of winning there. Fingers crossed.

[Jarqui]

24. Good.

To me, he's like the Selzer of Nevada.

[Mystery To Me]

25. Exciting

I grew up in Reno so I'm always on the edge of my seat to see which way they lean.